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So the UN has approved unanimously a 30 day extension to the UN observer mission. Guess the Russians wanted to throw Kofi Annan a bone.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 16:20 |
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# ? Jun 7, 2024 07:35 |
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Shadoer posted:So the UN has approved unanimously a 30 day extension to the UN observer mission. Guess the Russians wanted to throw Kofi Annan a bone. Think they've started realizing that the situation has changed significantly, especially if the rumors of Assad telling the Russian ambassador are true.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 16:24 |
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I'm being cynical and thinking the Russians only threw that morsel out because they weren't expecting such a vitriolic backlash from the West over their last veto.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 16:28 |
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Xandu posted:Somewhere between 20,000 people and 30,000 cars have passed into Lebanon from Syria in the last 2 days. Something in this doesn't match... Young Freud posted:Think they've started realizing that the situation has changed significantly, especially if the rumors of Assad telling the Russian ambassador are true. Nothing's changed, this was obvious already yesterday. None of the Security Council members wants the observing mission itself to end (especially at such a rush), the Sino-Russian opposition was aimed at the other parts of the resolution promoted by west.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 16:30 |
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Nenonen posted:Something in this doesn't match... Well the first report was from yesterday and said 20k people and then the second report is from today and says 30k cars. I guess the Lebanese government decided it was too much work to count people. Combined with all the reports of Alawis fleeing to the coast, Damascus is probably very empty right now. And the people left are most likely disproportionately the poor who have nowhere else to go. edit: http://twitter.com/#!/JohnWreford posted:Ramadan in Damascus, cooking gas more than 3 times its usual price and http://twitter.com/redrazan posted:People are fighting for bread, there is no bread anymore at this hour in Damascus, people are also buying lots of food #Syria Xandu fucked around with this message at 16:47 on Jul 20, 2012 |
# ? Jul 20, 2012 16:44 |
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Ramadan Kareem to those who have started it.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 16:53 |
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These 'official rumours' just don't come out of nowhere, do they? They must have some basis, or perhaps Russia is hinting that they would like him to leave. http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/sns-rt-us-syria-crisis-russiabre86j0b2-20120720,0,3827537.story quote:Ambassador Alexandre Orlov told French RFI radio that Assad, embattled by a rebellion against his rule, signaled readiness to step down when he accepted a recent international declaration which foresaw a transition towards a more democratic Syria. zero alpha fucked around with this message at 17:38 on Jul 20, 2012 |
# ? Jul 20, 2012 17:32 |
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Quote is not edit, and edit is not quote.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 17:35 |
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Capt Murphy posted:The Guardian Liveblog has the draft of the resolution as well as some more quotes. The one that was vetoed: http://un-report.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/uk-draft-resolution-on-syria-unsmis.html The proposed UK draft: http://un-report.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/uk-draft-resolution-to-renew-unsmis.html The one that has just been agreed by the UNSC (Which was another UK draft) http://un-report.blogspot.co.uk/2012/07/security-council-resolution-2059-on.html
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 17:36 |
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http://en.rian.ru/russia/20120720/174698082.html posted:A Russian cargo ship carrying a batch of Mi-25 attack helicopters and air defense systems for Syria has offloaded the aircraft in the Russian port of Baltiysk in the Kaliningrad region, a security source said on Friday.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 20:23 |
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Funny enough, asking Russia to break their contract is one area where the U.S. actually has credibility since we sold Pakistan a bunch of F-16s that we never gave them (but did take the money and hold onto it for a decade) because of their nuclear program.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 21:14 |
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Russia is cutting its losses in Syria, but Xandu you should probably cross post that chicken story from Iran. How did Putin's Israel trip go? Russia likely wants to ally more with Iran to counter balance the US/Saudi influence. The entire region is in flux.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 21:18 |
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Valley Troll posted:I could only get the cashed version of this for some reason, but apparently according to Syrian state media all those videos that Brown Moses and others have been posting were all produced in Qatar: This story is bogus, everyone knows that Qatar outsourced to the guys that faked the moon landing.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 21:27 |
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More bad news."Jerusalem Post" posted:Israel is preparing for a possible military intervention in Syria in case the Syrian government hands missiles or chemical weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon, Defense Minister Ehud Barak said on Friday.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 21:44 |
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This is super cynical, but Hezbollah and Syria would like nothing more than for that to happen.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 21:45 |
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Oh gently caress. No No No No No. This is really not good news.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 21:48 |
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Oh motherfucker, that would be the absolute worst possible thing to happen. gently caress.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 21:51 |
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An Israeli invasion of a Muslim country, what could possibly go wrong!? I can't imagine America would be ok with that, though. I mean... Would they sanction their most trusted and closest ally in the middle east? Sivias fucked around with this message at 22:04 on Jul 20, 2012 |
# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:01 |
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Goddamnit Israel, just shut up and keep your heads down, you idiots.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:02 |
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Kombotron posted:More bad news. Sabre rattling, Stupid sabre rattling. How can they possibly think making a statement like that will improve things, or even impress anyone?
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:09 |
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Patter Song posted:Oh gently caress. No No No No No. This is really not good news. Is this news, though? To "instruct the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that ... (if necessary) ... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation" means nothing in practise. Can you imagine the Israeli government not coming up with contingency plans? MRC48B posted:Sabre rattling, It's not sabre rattling so much as it is soothing the people. Keep in mind that the Hezbollah strikes across the border are a kind of thing that the Israeli people are always worried about. Nenonen fucked around with this message at 22:15 on Jul 20, 2012 |
# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:12 |
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And what if the Israeli intelligence preparations discovers possible Syrian chemical weapons being delivered to Lebanon?
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:17 |
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If chemical weapons were brought to Lebanon that would be a disaster on its own.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:24 |
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I know there are a lot of anti-Israel posters here (I'm not Israeli for the record) but I don't see how looking at it from their point of view they could allow the transfer of chemical or biological weapons, which we know Syria has, to Hezbollah without launching some sort of operation to prevent it.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:29 |
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The CIA has got people talking to Syrian defectors and opposition figures to try to locate, and when the time comes secure, Syria's chemical weapons, like they did in Libya. Israel can't move in the region without provoking a war. That's the effect of the last 70 years of policy. It leads to potentially serious threats like Hezbollah receiving chemical weapons (unlikely and honestly far from the biggest threat which the Syrian government or opposition outright losing control of them), but it means talking about a "possible military intervention" is one of the worst things Israel could do.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:34 |
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Nenonen posted:If chemical weapons were brought to Lebanon that would be a disaster on its own. 95% domestic use
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:34 |
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Xandu posted:The CIA has got people talking to Syrian defectors and opposition figures to try to locate, and when the time comes secure, Syria's chemical weapons, like they did in Libya. Any idea on what happened with Libya's chemical weapons?
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:38 |
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http://www.courier-journal.com/article/20120720/OPINION04/307200046/David-Ignatius-US-working-influence-endgame-Syria?nclick_check=1 posted:Libya was a test case for controlling chemical weapons amid revolutionary chaos. CIA officers on the ground helped the Libyan opposition secure the main chemical weapons bunker at Waddan. The CIA also helped connect the new Libyan government with officials from the deposed regime of Col. Moammar Gadhafi who were knowledgeable about the location of the weapons.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:40 |
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Nenonen posted:Is this news, though? To "instruct the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that ... (if necessary) ... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation" means nothing in practice. Every military on earth has plans. The United States has a plan to invade Canada. Spain has plans to defend against a French attack. Italy has plans to defend against a Swiss incursion. The US probably has extensive plans for an intervention if the drug war in Mexico deteriorates further. Smart governments however, do not mention them in press conferences. I understand that they are probably trying to reassure a nervous populace. It's just a heavy-handed way of doing so, and I think discretion is the wiser path. I don't want Hezbollah to acquire chemical weapons either. If such an exchange took place, I would fully support someone taking action to prevent it. Quietly.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:44 |
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Didn't the chief or former chief of chemical weapons forces in Syria end up defecting to the FSA? I'm sure he would be a boon to the CIA or any international effort to keep Syria's chemical weapons from being transfered. Also, Hezbollah using chemical weapons against Israel would be a bad move. A real bad move, since Israel would end up using nuclear weapons in southern Lebanon as retaliation.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:46 |
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Nenonen posted:Is this news, though? To "instruct the military to increase its intelligence preparations and prepare what is needed so that ... (if necessary) ... we will be able to consider carrying out an operation" means nothing in practise. I think that it's not exactly all 'soothing the people.' The statement appears very carefully worded. Increasing intelligence preparation likely means things like determining the strength and position of Syrian forces, the routes and quality of roads (to determine potential invasion paths and possible speeds), and figuring out all the little logistical details that are needed in order to even be able to 'consider carrying out an operation.' So I don't think that it's purely intended as sabre-rattling, or soothing people's fears. I think that it is probably an action taken to give Israeli policy-makers more freedom of action, and is intended as a signal of Israel's intentions, position, and capabilities. Is that a good thing? States often face perverse incentives, and sometimes actions that benefit one country's security can undermine the security of the region. By having plans and contingencies ready, there may be an increased chance of something escalating, or an unnecessary action being taken. On the other hand, having plans in place might allow for a more reasoned and measured reponse to new developments. If I may leave a wet bromide, I think that on the whole I generally don't like it when things happen that raise the potential for a catastrophic failure of complex systems.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:49 |
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I can't see a way in which Israel could disrupt Hizballah's rocket launching capabilities without having to launch a massive ground invasion and long, bloody occupation of southern Lebanon...which is exactly the kind of event that led to Hizballah's creation to begin with. Hizballah's defenses and infrastructure are spread out and well defended enough that air power alone would be insufficient.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 22:51 |
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So is Israel doing it's best to make Iran look good or are they simply idiots?
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 23:01 |
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Yeah, Libya went down really beautifully in that regard. The disarmament program was already under way and the chemical weapons or ingredients for them were, maybe by luck, not messed with at any point. I don't see any purpose in allowing chemical weapons stockpiles to be kept by any nation. Many countries rely on WMDs as a deterrent, but chemical weapons in particular are a very weak deterrent: Iraq had them in 1991 and the west believed they had them in 2003, yet they weren't used at any point. There should be a universal ban on chemical weapons, in particular on nervous gases. No one is better off with Sarin and VX around, someone's going to call the bluff anyway and gases are difficult to use effectively. I would hope that this war will convince the world on the need for a complete, immediate, obligatory disarmament treaty. One which no one is allowed to circumvent by not signing to it. Just to point out how outdated this type of weapon is, a quote from the staunchest supporter of the weapon, 1919: Winston Churchill posted:I do not understand this squeamishness about the use of gas. We have definitely adopted the position at the Peace Conference of arguing in favour of the retention of gas as a permanent method of warfare. It is sheer affectation to lacerate a man with the poisonous fragment of a bursting shell and to boggle at making his eyes water by means of lachrymatory gas. I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes. The moral effect should be so good that the loss of life should be reduced to a minimum. It is not necessary to use only the most deadly gasses: gasses can be used which cause great inconvenience and would spread a lively terror and yet would leave no serious permanent effects on most of those affected. And yet Britain did not use chemical weapons against 'uncivilised tribes', nor Germans during WW2, nor at any later point.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 23:10 |
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Just put together my latest UXO post, this time a guide on how to quickly ID UXO used in Syria
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 23:14 |
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Nenonen posted:Yeah, Libya went down really beautifully in that regard. The disarmament program was already under way and the chemical weapons or ingredients for them were, maybe by luck, not messed with at any point. We've already got basically everybody to already sign that though, and I don't think it'd be that difficult to get the others to sign on (assuming Syria doesn't devolve into total chaos, I guess).
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 23:21 |
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computer parts posted:We've already got basically everybody to already sign that though, and I don't think it'd be that difficult to get the others to sign on (assuming Syria doesn't devolve into total chaos, I guess). Good luck with Israel and North Korea, though.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 23:24 |
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Here's a first, an alleged female shabiha, anyone know what she's saying? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch7586rvIJs
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 23:38 |
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Nenonen posted:And yet Britain did not use chemical weapons against 'uncivilised tribes', nor Germans during WW2, nor at any later point. Technically, they didn't use them against enemy forces because Hitler had seen what mustard gas did to people first hand and wanted to avoid wholesale chemical warfare. OTOH, using Zyklon B on concentration camp inhabitants is something entirely different.
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# ? Jul 20, 2012 23:44 |
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# ? Jun 7, 2024 07:35 |
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Young Freud posted:
That's some Tom Clancy poo poo there. Israel are not nuking anyone. *IF* Hez used chemical weapons, a few people would die, and Israel would use conventional arms against Lebanon. That's it.
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# ? Jul 21, 2012 00:03 |