Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Young Freud posted:

Technically, they didn't use them against enemy forces because Hitler had seen what mustard gas did to people first hand and wanted to avoid wholesale chemical warfare.

OTOH, using Zyklon B on concentration camp inhabitants is something entirely different.

Oh! I meant to say that Brits, under Churchill's leadership, did not use chems against Germans, even as London was being bombed. I guess Churchill mellowed quite a bit in the time of 20 years... and they were not uncivilised tribes, of course.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 00:05

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:36

Jut: May 16, 2005; by Ralp

Nenonen posted:

Just to point out how outdated this type of weapon is, a quote from the staunchest supporter of the weapon, 1919:

And yet Britain did not use chemical weapons against 'uncivilised tribes', nor Germans during WW2, nor at any later point.

But in fairness, they used the gently caress out of them in WW1, and afterwards on the Bolsheviks.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 00:13

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

The Nazis had the advantage of the V2 and other ballistic missiles. Using chemical weapons against Germans would have escalated the conflict and the Germans had a superior dispersal method.

The threat of Gaza/Lebanon rockets with loose Syrian chemical weapons is a chilling thought, if somewhat in Clancy territory, it is definitely a threat Israel should take seriously. It is actually seems more threatening than Iranian nuclear technology.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 00:13

Fangz: Jul 5, 2007; Oh I see! This must be the Bad Opinion Zone!

However, the British had the best (worst) biological weapons program of all.

Use of it wasn't done, because it wasn't required.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 00:18

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

McDowell posted:

The Nazis had the advantage of the V2 and other ballistic missiles. Using chemical weapons against Germans would have escalated the conflict and the Germans had a superior dispersal method.

The Vengeance weapons were not very accurate, and I have doubts over whether they would have killed any more people had they been carrying gas rather than explosives. Gases are less reliable than TNT. But if the Allies feared anything, it was that the Germans had biological weapons - those could have really hurt everyone. (Germans didn't have them in such capacity.)

Even then, that fear did not stop them from destroying entire cities by bombing.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 00:29

Evil Fluffy: Jul 13, 2009; Scholars are some of the most pompous and pedantic people I've ever had the joy of meeting.

Jut posted:

That's some Tom Clancy poo poo there. Israel are not nuking anyone. *IF* Hez used chemical weapons, a few people would die, and Israel would use conventional arms against Lebanon. That's it.

It's also not exactly safe to nuke an area right next to your own country.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 01:19

Valley Troll: Jun 19, 2012

Brown Moses posted:

Here's a first, an alleged female shabiha, anyone know what she's saying?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ch7586rvIJs

Only watched this once through but here's what I gathered:

They begin saying where they were 'arrested'. She says she's also part of the Saif al-Islam (sword of Islam) battalion, like the other two guys. Then the guy with the camera asks them how they agreed to kill the martyr Abdul Hadi al-Halim. The guy on the right then goes into detail describing what happened after the first saw him.

I gather that the guy in the middle says he was just along for the ride.

I think around 3:03 the lady says that she was at home in the apartment and the other guys came and asked her to come along.

The cameraman then asks them who was responsible for the explosion, and they all say they don't know. The lady says there was an explosive device but that it was with another guy (not of the three captured).

A new guy off camera then asks her about the guy who was 'martyred' but I can't make out what he asks. She says she doesn't know and asks him to believe her.

Later he asks all of them how much they got paid. Think the guy in the middle and on the right got Hashish and pills, but the lady says she didn't take any of that. Then I the lady and the guy in the middle say they got paid 15,000 whatevers, and the guy on the right says the drugs and 10,000 for him.

The cameraman then asks them how they killed Abdul Hadi. As far as I gather they killed him with an explosion that the lady says she wasn't involved in.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 04:12

Valley Troll: Jun 19, 2012

Also, some words of reason re: jumping on alawites:

quote:

A word on `Alawites
It is the season of open bigotry against `Alawites--qua `Alawites. I see it in the Qatari-Saudi media and in the Western media. Western journalists are even resorting to justifications for the butchery of `Alawites by gangs of the Free Syrian Army. The coverage is almost exterminationist in goals. Every attack on `Alawite civilians is coupled with explanation of "shabbihah" (to equate the two) and with a reference to the `Aalwite ruling families. It is quite unprecedented. I mean, the key elements of the Zionist regime are Jewish but I never see Western journalists justifying attacks on Israeli civilians. When you read articles on Syria, including in the Economist, just replace the word `Alawite with the word Jewish and see how it sounds. The fact that the Syrian regime is `Alawite does not mean that: 1) the regime has NOT repressed anyone and everyone regardless of sect: the criterion is loyalty and not sect; 2) (does not mean that) the regime would have survived and lasted without support from non-`Alawites. Remember that the `Alawites are no more than 13 or 14 % of the population. 3) There has never been a consensus among `Alawites for supporting the Asad regime. Never. 4) Western media adhere overall to liberal standards except when it comes to the Middle East. They sound like fascist European media.

http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/07/a-word-on-alawites.html

# ? Jul 21, 2012 06:34

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

A few days ago he said every Israeli should die. He's hardly one to talk.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 06:38

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Real life called and I only just caught up on 2500 posts of this thread. Wow, a lot has happened.

Happy Ramadan, y'all.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 08:04

Mans: Sep 14, 2011; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

I'm not sure what the new thread title means.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 08:17

Valley Troll: Jun 19, 2012

Xandu posted:

A few days ago he said every Israeli should die. He's hardly one to talk.

What post are you referring to? He's inflammatory but also links to interesting stuff and knows his poo poo. And he definitely never said 'every israeli should die'.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 08:24

Hefty Leftist: Jun 26, 2011; "You know how vodka or whiskey are distilled multiple times to taste good? It's the same with shit. After being digested for the third time shit starts to taste reeeeeeaaaally yummy."

To any of those people living in Egypt, do you think the country will have a referendum to change it's flag, in the same way Libya and Syria have gone ahead and changed theirs to a pre-dictator era, or does the flag serving under the Mubarak era serve no real concern? I'm also wondering the same thing about Yemen, if they manage to achieve stability in the future. I know the flag is still technically the colours of the Arab Revolt, but I still have to wonder if Egyptians/Yemenis will bring back flags from before dictatorship like the aforementioned countries.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 11:23

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Valley Troll posted:

What post are you referring to? He's inflammatory but also links to interesting stuff and knows his poo poo. And he definitely never said 'every israeli should die'.

http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/07/on-fire-in-israel.html posted:

An Israeli set himself on fire to protest inflation. I call on all Israelis to protest inflation.

The clear implication here is all Israelis should light themselves on fire and die. It's one of those maybe it's a joke but not really.

He readily equivocates between bombing a bus full of tourists and group of military officials responsible for massacring thousands of people.

http://angryarab.blogspot.com/2012/07/two-bombings-and-two-reactions.html posted:

So there were two bombings today: one in Bulgaria and another in Damascus. Western governments and media strongly condemned the first and strongly cheered and celebrated the second. (thanks Michele)

He also continues writing in al-Akhbar, despite the absolutely absurd stances taken by Ibrahim al-Amin (editor in chief) and Amaal Saad Ghorayeb on Syria.

Or he'll write "Syrian armed groups also kill Palestinians" when describing an attack on Palestinian Liberation Army officers as a counterpoint to a post on the killings in Yarmouk by Syrian security forces, without mentioning that the PLA is quite literally part of the Syrian regime.

I went back less than a month, there's undoubtedly more nonsense beyond that. I still appreciate some of his posts, but he's a bit of a crank.

Xandu fucked around with this message at 12:26 on Jul 21, 2012

# ? Jul 21, 2012 12:12

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Mans posted:

I'm not sure what the new thread title means.

There was a joke going around in Syria a few months back that Bashar al-Assad was a duck.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 12:13

Mans: Sep 14, 2011; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Oh yeah. they even said something like "allahu quac quac" in a video didn't they? That and the martian video were hilarious.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 12:34

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

From a report about Syrian refugees entering Lebanon.

quote:

On the other end of the scale, a young man riding in the passenger seat of a glistening, charcoal Porsche Panamera with special government license plates rolled down his window and denied anything was amiss in Damascus.

�There is nothing,� he said before the car roared off.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/21/w...smid=tw-nytimes

# ? Jul 21, 2012 12:43

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

It was revealed in leaked emails Asma al-Assad nickname for Bashar al-Assad was Batan, which is duck in Arabic, and there were reports he was burnt in the bomb attack, hence crispy friend duck. Although he appears to be fine, so we'll need a new title.

Thanks for the translation Valley Troll, might do a post about it on my blog if I get chance.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 12:43

Ultras Lazio: May 22, 2010; by Y Kant Ozma Post

The-Mole posted:

Happy Ramadan, y'all.

"y'all"?
Also the vast majority of people here that do not celebrate it?
Do you normally go and wish Merry Christmas to muslims?

AJ is talking about another 2 generals jumping ship btw.

Israel should really keep the lowest possible profile now and in any Arab Spring related issue. Si vis pacem, para bellum...but in silence.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 13:06

Judgy Fucker: Mar 24, 2006

Ultras Lazio posted:

"y'all"?

Americanism for "you all." Common in the South.

Is there any chance that, were the situation to get bad enough, Turkey would intervene without the aid/endorsement of NATO? I know their desire to join the EU and how military action may impair that, but if, say, chemical weapons were to be used near their border, the refugee crisis worsens, etc., how likely is it that Turkey would go in alone?

# ? Jul 21, 2012 13:27

Slashrat: Jun 6, 2011; YOSPOS

Ultras Lazio posted:

"y'all"?
Also the vast majority of people here that do not celebrate it?
Do you normally go and wish Merry Christmas to muslims?

I may not know when or for how long the Ramadan is or the details of why it is significant, but someone wishing me well on the occasion of it still feels nice. I'd like to think that goes for for most other people too

# ? Jul 21, 2012 13:30

Kurtofan: Feb 16, 2011; hon hon hon

Ultras Lazio posted:

"y'all"?
Also the vast majority of people here that do not celebrate it?
Do you normally go and wish Merry Christmas to muslims?

You never heard "Merry Christmas to everyone"?

# ? Jul 21, 2012 13:42

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Kurtofan posted:

You never heard "Merry Christmas to everyone"?

Stop oppressing my atheist sensibilities! :reject:

# ? Jul 21, 2012 13:56

A Stranger: Sep 14, 2010

Xandu posted:

The clear implication here is all Israelis should light themselves on fire and die. It's one of those maybe it's a joke but not really.

He readily equivocates between bombing a bus full of tourists and group of military officials responsible for massacring thousands of people.

He also continues writing in al-Akhbar, despite the absolutely absurd stances taken by Ibrahim al-Amin (editor in chief) and Amaal Saad Ghorayeb on Syria.

Or he'll write "Syrian armed groups also kill Palestinians" when describing an attack on Palestinian Liberation Army officers as a counterpoint to a post on the killings in Yarmouk by Syrian security forces, without mentioning that the PLA is quite literally part of the Syrian regime.

I went back less than a month, there's undoubtedly more nonsense beyond that. I still appreciate some of his posts, but he's a bit of a crank.

Abu Khalil is infinitely better informed about the Syrian civil war than anyone in this thread, writing him off as a "crank" is intellectually dishonest and probably has more to do with your own political opinions. Same for Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese publication which has done more actual research into the conflict than any Western media outlet. Abu Khalil and Al Akhbar (being Lebanese, strong supporters of the Palestinian struggle and more personally involved in the conflict than anyone here) as well as many others in the Arab and non-Western world see the FSA as terrorist gangs funded and organised by Saudi Arabia and Qatar (and indirectly by NATO). This does not mean they support the criminal Assad regime. In fact they have been quite positive about the very significant parts of the Syrian opposition (which incidentally are actually based in Syria) that don't employ foreign-funded, foreign-armed and foreign-trained terrorists. Their views are entirely legitimate.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 13:58

Mans: Sep 14, 2011; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

I don't think it's hypocrite to criticise how the west clapped their hands about a bombing of Assad's personnel, time and time again we've seen people call Iranian terrorists "freedom fighters" while demanding Palestinian blood? Even the Arab Spring is an example of this. Where's the outrage about the Arabian protests? Hell, we even organized a major racing event there and covered the massacres. The lack of transparency and honesty pisses me off sometimes-

Ultras Lazio posted:

"y'all"?
Also the vast majority of people here that do not celebrate it?
Do you normally go and wish Merry Christmas to muslims?

AJ is talking about another 2 generals jumping ship btw.

Israel should really keep the lowest possible profile now and in any Arab Spring related issue. Si vis pacem, para bellum...but in silence.

"Guys, stop not being a white middle class Italian neo-fascist, it's offensive to me :qq:

# ? Jul 21, 2012 14:46

Al-Saqr: Nov 11, 2007; One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

A Stranger posted:

Abu Khalil is infinitely better informed about the Syrian civil war than anyone in this thread, writing him off as a "crank" is intellectually dishonest and probably has more to do with your own political opinions. Same for Al-Akhbar, a Lebanese publication which has done more actual research into the conflict than any Western media outlet. Abu Khalil and Al Akhbar (being Lebanese, strong supporters of the Palestinian struggle and more personally involved in the conflict than anyone here) as well as many others in the Arab and non-Western world see the FSA as terrorist gangs funded and organised by Saudi Arabia and Qatar (and indirectly by NATO). This does not mean they support the criminal Assad regime. In fact they have been quite positive about the very significant parts of the Syrian opposition (which incidentally are actually based in Syria) that don't employ foreign-funded, foreign-armed and foreign-trained terrorists. Their views are entirely legitimate.

I concur with this, Asad abukhalil is far from the kind of loon that Xandu is painting him as, his research and his opinions (cutting as they may be) are not based on fantasy, he knows what he's talking about he has the history, academic credentials, and writings and speeches that show you that he's infinitely better informed than anyone here.

The FSA and SNC and for all their pretensions are a compromised faction, you cant expect good things to come out of a group funded and armed by the biggest enemies of democracy, and who've developed a very sectarian outlook and behavior. just because they're against Assad (which we all vehemently are) doesn't give them carte blanche with their own actions and that people should clap and excuse their every move.

And when you look at the behaviour they've been taking against OTHER OPPOSITION SYRIANS, when they literally beat up Haytham al Manna (one of the top figures of the Syrian Coordination Council, the 'other' big opposition group, who's own brohter was killed by assad and they called him traitor) and when they attack all other oppisition figures who refuse to give up all their political lives to the SNC and the gulf and label them as traitors, then you have a problem and you SHOULD say something about it, which is what abukhalil is doing.

Oh and as for al-akhbar, it may have it's flaws but it's miles and miles better than 90% of all other arab newspapers, which are owned by the gulf.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 14:53

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Al-Saqr posted:

Oh and as for al-akhbar, it may have it's flaws but it's miles and miles better than 90% of all other arab newspapers, which are owned by the gulf.

Well that's not much of a bar given how few independent arab media organizations there are. But I can't take seriously any newspaper that regularly publishes tripe like this.

I don't actually have any issue with critiquing the Syrian opposition as sectarian (or even responsible for war crimes), I just don't like AbuKhalil.

I'm honestly surprised he's not blocked in Saudi Arabia given what he regularly says about the royals.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 15:09

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Interesting article about Tartus

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/syrias-alawite-refuge?page=show

quote:

On a recent Sunday afternoon, the Syrian port city of Tartus buzzed in the summer heat. Car showrooms displayed lines of new vehicles. Markets full of clothes, furniture, and household knicknacks bustled with customers. Clouds of nargileh smoke wafted from hookah pipes at the see-and-be-seen restaurants lining sandy Mediterranean beaches. Yachts bobbed indifferently in the port.

This Middle Eastern haven, however, lies just 60 miles west of Homs, the battle-broken city that is the center of gravity in the civil war that has shattered Syria, killing more than 16,000 people and displacing a quarter of a million more. Tartus, though, has become a refuge for the country's minority Alawi Shiite population. "As an Alawi, I don't really care about Bashar al-Assad," says 30-year-old Majed, referring to Syria's president, who is also Alawi. "The only thing that concerns me is security."

Eight months ago, after losing his job and fearing for his safety, Majed escaped Homs. (Like others interviewed for this article, Majed chose to keep his last name private for security reasons.) In Tartus, he has found work as a telecommunications salesman. "Everyone thinks we defend the regime and the authorities, but the opposition has given us no choice but to flee to the coast," he says. "It's like I'm not even in the Middle East here, I feel so secure."

Similar sentiments are easy to find in Tartus. Fayez, a 35-year-old import-export business owner, also abandoned Homs last year after opposition fighters operating under the banner of the Free Syrian Army kidnapped his cousins and wrote "Get out" on the door of his home. "Revolutionaries," Fayez describes them sarcastically, holding up his fingers in bitter air quotes. "Tartus is my new home. I don't ever intend to leave," he says. "In the end, Bashar al-Assad will go and our children will be left, and we have to defend their future here."

Eighteen months of fighting have hardened both men's sectarian resolve. In their view, Alawites are under attack by a Sunni majority, which uses its religious identity as an organizing principle for mobilizing the militias operating under the Free Syrian Army umbrella. In turn, the coastal Sahel region is the only safe haven, and this stretch of land -- encompassing the port cities of Latakia, Baniyas, Jableh, and Tartus, and the mountains separating them from the rest of Syria's plains -- must be protected against Sunni encroachment at all costs.

Far removed from the shabiha, Assad's vigilante militias notorious for carrying out the regime's crackdown against the uprising, these men in the Sahel are neither fanatic nor armed. But they represent a demographic force creating another de facto divide in the country. As fighting takes place along Syria's central artery running northward from Homs to Idlib, Alawites are increasingly setting up shop in the Sahel, looking to cordon themselves off from the chaos that they believe will come as Assad's grip on the country weakens.

In several conversations, Alawites said that thousands of families have relocated to the coast. Others spoke of friends and family members who have not yet moved but have purchased homes there in anticipation of a shift in fortunes. Although the real figure is impossible to determine, visits to Damascus, Homs, and Tartus indicated that such numbers are plausible. Official tallies -- from the UN agencies operating inside Syria, for instance -- are nonexistent.

Such movement could be an early harbinger of territorial entrenchments of Syria's sectarian fault lines. "At this point, the regime is not looking at itself as a small state within Syria," says one Alawi academic who lives in both Damascus and Latakia. "It wants all of Syria, and it will stay that way until the last possible moment." Alawites talk of a return to the coast is specious, he says, the product of a regime "game" of hyping threats in order to instill fear in minorities. Still, he adds, "Just like the weapons game, the sectarian game is a dangerous one. People are hearing rhetoric like, 'We want to annihilate Alawis. We want their deaths.' You never know if it will pass a point at which you can't stop it, you lose control."

That fear is rooted in the community's historical marginalization. Throughout centuries of Mamluk and Ottoman rule, Alawites, a heterodox offshoot of Shia Islam, largely confined themselves to the mountains east of Latakia. Aside from tiny minorities in the villages around Homs and Hama, they emerged from their "wild hills" only occasionally to work as menial laborers. After World War I, French mandate authorities codified these isolationist impulses, creating a sovereign Alawi territory extending from Latakia to Tartus in 1920. Though Alawi leaders initially cheered their region as a bulwark against Sunni domination of the interior, even French protection could not make the state viable. Alawites constituted a majority of the population, but city-based Sunni and Christian communities lagged behind by only a third, possessed far greater wealth and education, and were strongly in favor of union with Damascus. By 1937, the experiment had failed; the state was incorporated into modern-day Syria.

Alawites eventually entered the Syrian mainstream via new national military and educational institutions in the cities, assuming posts in the full spectrum of professions: public service, the security forces, academia, and business. Eventually, that process put Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite air force officer, in position to seize the presidency in a 1970 coup. Today, Alawites constitute about 12 percent of Syria's population of 22 million, primarily concentrated on the coast but with significant numbers in Damascus and Homs. The mainstreaming process has not been even or complete. Like his father, Bashar al-Assad has kept the top ranks in the military and security services reserved for well-connected Alawites. Meanwhile, fueled in large part by a stifling ban on discussion of sectarian issues, identity within Syrian society remains strongly determined by sect.

Today in Damascus, people living in Alawi districts such as Mezze 86, a middle-class neighborhood, are weighing their future. Ask them how they feel about the city, and it is not uncommon to hear a refrain repeated: "Damascus is my maskan, my residence, but Latakia is my ma'man." Ma'man translates roughly to "home" but derives from a root meaning "security." It means, more precisely, "the place where I am safe." Khalil, a medical student born and raised in Mezze 86, is only in his 20s, but he repeats it, too. "I have friends, and everything is comfortable for me here," he explained to me in May, "but something inside me still feels alienated." For now, he chooses to remain in Damascus to finish his studies, but he keeps one eye trained on encroaching opposition forces and the other on the coast. "If it becomes dangerous for us Alawis, then we can't stay here."

But although the Alawites are minorities, they hold disproportionate power, which makes it unlikely that they would accept a Sunni leadership without a fight. "If Assad leaves tomorrow morning, the war in Syria will not end," says Firas Abi Ali, an analyst at the London-based risk consultancy Executive Analysis. "A core of Alawis would continue fighting. The conventional army would become a lot weaker, since so many powers are centered in the presidential office. But you would end up with a very well-armed core still fighting with tanks, special forces, possibly airplanes."

The most likely scenario, Abi Ali says, is that rebel forces would concentrate on Daraa, Deir al-Zour, the Homs-Idlib corridor, and rural areas around Aleppo and Damascus, while government forces could continue to hold Aleppo, Damascus, and the coastal areas. As the capabilities of the two sides equalize, fighting would gradually progress into conventional warfare, with much of the Alawi civilian population forced toward the coast.

The problem is what comes afterward. As history has shown once before, the odds are stacked against the viability of a state in the mountains of the sea. For one, there is the coast's restive Sunni population. Even Latakia, commonly cast as an Alawi stronghold, is more than 50 percent Sunni province-wide and more than 70 percent Sunni in the city itself. Baniyas, too, is evenly split. Overwhelming force has thus far been sufficient to quell protests in both cities, but, according to one Latakia-based activist, even mountain areas such as Jabal Akrad and Haffeh are beginning to see Free Syrian Army activity. Many Sunnis of means are leaving the city for Turkey, including the activist's own family, fearing a final showdown there as Alawis retreat.

A fledgling "state within a state" would then face the same economic dilemmas that doomed it a century ago. Import-export businesses fuel the economies of Tartus and Latakia, and those would suffer if a de facto partition develops further, since merchants would be unable to move their goods to market in Damascus and Aleppo across a hostile border. Although there is some discussion among the Alawi elite that they might find oil and gas on the coast offshore, according to Abi Ali, sectors such as tourism and agriculture are not enough to sustain an Alawi state on their own. The entity's regional neighbors, wary of their own domestic secessionist movements, would be loath to recognize it.

With these odds in mind, Alawi elites are divided on the future of the coastal mountains, seeing little choice but to fight for control of the entire country. According to one high-ranking Alawi general in Homs with direct knowledge of the thinking in Damascus, the regime leadership is not formulating any plans for separation. At the same time, he says, the demographic changes are happening organically on their own, driven by the violence in central Syria and fear of the unknown in Damascus. He has already sent his own family coastward, citing the area's security and environment as "suitable for us."

"We're Alawis, so we can't live among the other groups," he says. "We have a different, more open culture, so the coast is best for us. This is our only option."

As the war grinds on, other possibilities may become more attractive to the general. These are still the early days of Alawi migration, a relatively mild flow that could be stanched if a political deal convinces enough of the population that they would have a stake in the country's future government. But Syria's chronically squabbling opposition figures have so far failed to make such overtures, while Assad's forces, fighting what they consider an existential battle, appear unlikely to put down their weapons voluntarily. Whether those forces choose to make their final battle in Damascus or retreat to the mountains, the stage in Syria is set for a long war and deepening social divisions.

For Majed, settling comfortably into his new home in Tartus, there is no going back. "It's true that there aren't the right ingredients for a state, but the Syrian coast is basically the center of gravity for the sect," he says. "If the war continues in Syria, I'll be among the supporters of separation. There is enough blood."

# ? Jul 21, 2012 15:13

Denzer: May 15, 2009

quote:

"We're Alawis, so we can't live among the other groups," he says. "We have a different, more open culture, so the coast is best for us. This is our only option."

So they are potentially going to make their own small country on the coast that will serve as a safe homeland for their demographically outnumbered people and unique culture.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 16:03

V. Illych L.: Apr 11, 2008; ASK ME ABOUT LUMBER

I don't think that's going to happen, to be honest. The new Syrian state will have the support of the Gulf and America, and there is no way its allies will allow a new, otherwise-beholden state to run away with its coast line.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 16:11

Zudgemud: Mar 1, 2009; Grimey Drawer

Xandu posted:

The clear implication here is all Israelis should light themselves on fire and die. It's one of those maybe it's a joke but not really.

Funny, becasue I thought it was pretty obvious he implied that one israeli torched himself for that cause and israelis should do the tunisian thing and start a revolution about it.

Different bias v :v:

# ? Jul 21, 2012 17:03

Young Freud: Nov 26, 2006

V. Illych L. posted:

I don't think that's going to happen, to be honest. The new Syrian state will have the support of the Gulf and America, and there is no way its allies will allow a new, otherwise-beholden state to run away with its coast line.

Maybe it can be like Russia's and China's Taiwan, where they and Iran are the only ones to recognize it, but the UN doesn't.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 18:07

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

Young Freud posted:

Maybe it can be like Russia's and China's Taiwan, where they and Iran are the only ones to recognize it, but the UN doesn't.

Haha Taiwan only works because it is an island (and China is starting to contest the sea around a bunch of islands) The land border analogue would be North Korea, Guantanamo, or the West Bank.

If things spill into Lebanon this will get worse before it gets better.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 18:15

Herstory Begins Now: Aug 5, 2003; SOME REALLY TEDIOUS DUMB SHIT THAT SUCKS ASS TO READ ->>

Ultras Lazio posted:

"y'all"?
Also the vast majority of people here that do not celebrate it?
Do you normally go and wish Merry Christmas to muslims?

Just for you I'll rephrase it! For everyone but Ultras Lazlo, happy Ramadan. For Ultras Lazio, have the best Ramadan!

# ? Jul 21, 2012 18:27

Spiderfist Island: Feb 19, 2011

ThePutty posted:

To any of those people living in Egypt, do you think the country will have a referendum to change it's flag, in the same way Libya and Syria have gone ahead and changed theirs to a pre-dictator era, or does the flag serving under the Mubarak era serve no real concern? I'm also wondering the same thing about Yemen, if they manage to achieve stability in the future. I know the flag is still technically the colours of the Arab Revolt, but I still have to wonder if Egyptians/Yemenis will bring back flags from before dictatorship like the aforementioned countries.

Egypt's flag is very close to the same one that was used in 1953 under Nasser, I don't think they'd want to change it. The reason for the change is because of all the previous Nasserite attempts at Greater Arab States changing the flag so many times� the current one is just a simplified version of Nasser's flag re-adopted in the 80s.

Compare the original post-revolution flag:

to the current flag:

In short: everyone in Egypt loves Nasser, so no way, no how is the flag going to change.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 19:02

Nckdictator: Sep 8, 2006; Just..someone

Not sure if this is the right topic but can someone explain to me Nasser's legacy and how he's viewed in modern-day Egypt and the Arab-world in general?

# ? Jul 21, 2012 19:12

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I'm reading that General Mohammed Muffleh defected into Turkey. I can't find much info about him, but he seems to have been in charge of Syrian intelligence in Hama and is generally a pretty awful person, to the point where the European Union actually applied sanctions on him for his role in a crackdown last year.

edit: Brigadier General, not an actual general

Xandu fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Jul 21, 2012

# ? Jul 21, 2012 19:15

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Lots of Turkish truck drivers reporting that their cargo was looted, trucks burned by rebels when Bab al-Hawa was seized.

http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/breaking-news/syria-rebels-loot-trucks-turkish-drivers/story-e6frg13l-1226431930559

quote:

DOZENS of Turkish truck drivers have accused rebel fighters of the Free Syrian Army of having burned and looted their lorries as they stormed a border post in Syria.

A group of truck owners, traders and transporters have been waiting since Friday at the Cilvegozu border crossing, in Turkey's southern province, which lies opposite to Syria's Bab al-Hawa post.

Rebel fighters captured the Syrian border post after battling President Bashar al-Assad's loyalist troops.

"We barely escaped when the rebel fighters took full control of the Bab al-Hawa border post in Syria," said Hasan Abbasoglu as he retrieved his vehicle from Syria after the looting.

While the truck was not damaged, its cargo had been ransacked.

And he had to pay $US700 ($A670) in bribes to get his truck back, he said.

"I've been exporting carpets via the Syrian border crossing for seven years," he said.

"But this time we narrowly escaped with our lives."

Members of the Free Syrian Army had done nothing to stop their fellow rebels from looting, he complained.

Thursday's fighting saw Syrian rebels seize the border crossing with Turkey, prompting an all-out assault by the regime in Damascus to regain the lost border posts including one on its border with Iraq, according to reports.

Abbasoglu was relatively lucky - he at least got his truck back.

At Bab al-Hawa, four kilometres from Turkey's Cilvegozu, Syrian rebels ransacked customs buildings and pulled cargo from the back of stranded trucks.

"All of our trucks were burned," said trader Ali Cengiz, who exports to Saudi Arabia via Syria.

"The rebel fighters destroyed our trucks during the clashes."

Turkey was a major economic partner with Syria before Assad clamped down on the uprising that erupted in March last year, straining ties between the two countries.

Turkey had denounced the bloody crackdown, which has sent more than 35,000 Syrians across the border into its territory alone.

The Turkish foreign ministry has repeatedly warned its citizens not to travel to Syria because of security concerns.

Traders however argued that as long as the border crossing at Cilvegozu remained open, they have to keep trading via Syria in order to stay in business.

"How will we earn our living then?" asked Cengiz.

"We have debts, will the government make up for our loss?"

Ali Celik, who runs a road haulage company, looked over the border into Syria - but he did not hold out much hope for his merchandise.

His trucks were stranded at Bab al-Hawa, he said.

"We sent tow-trucks to retrieve our vehicles but we have received no information so far," he said.

He pointed out his trading partner.

"He is very disappointed," he said.

"He doesn't want to speak."

About 40 trucks were stranded at the Syrian border post after this week's fighting according to witnesses.

Local officials were holding a meeting at Cilvegozu on Saturday to discuss security measures in the light of Friday's looting.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 19:27

something original: Sep 9, 2011

Turkey closed the Cilveg�z� border crossing near Hatay today because of that.

# ? Jul 21, 2012 19:30

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# ? Jun 3, 2024 16:36

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

There's also an AFP report saying a jihadist group named Shura Taliban Islam is in control of the Bab al-Hawa crossing.

http://www.imageforum-diffusion.afp...mui=1#numPage=1

# ? Jul 21, 2012 19:38

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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