|
quote:Opposition figure Kamal al-Labwani has told al-Arabiya television that Syrian vice-president Farouq al-Sharaa definitely has defected. Al-Labwani said he knows where al-Sharaa is but will not mention any details for his safety. quote:A former Syrian minister who defected this year said Saturday that it was "well-known" that Vice President Faruq al-Shara had tried to leave and was under house arrest.
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 01:30
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 00:41 |
|
|
farraday posted:The regime relies on a bargain between Alawite and created/co-opted sunni elites which is undermined by the constant defection of Sunni elites and the corresponding security blanket thrown atop them to prevent that happening. This is on top of the normal justification for stability, which is not between the regime and the military, but between the regime and the upper/middle classes which is rather undermined by their continuing failure to put down the rebellion, their inability to prevent high level defections/assassinations, and the rebels ability to fight in the cities. Despite claims to the contrary it's been 10 days since Slahadin "fell" and while the Army has advanced there are near constant reports of fighting in all neighborhoods of that sector of Aleppo, meaning they're having trouble keeping it clear.  but a good parallel is Nazi Germany; even well after it was clear that the war was lost the elites stayed rock solid in their loyalty, largely because the new that any new regime would reject them and probably even prosecute them. Any Sunni general who's stayed with the regime for 17 months of slaughter probably isn't staying with the regime because they're scared of their own safety, besides, if Libya is any indication the FSA would probably shoot them anyway.I honestly don't know if you're serious about your jab about the stability crowd not supporting fighting a battle over Aleppo, bit if you are you should seriously re-evaluate your thinking. They're not going to get upset that he's trying to fight the war. However, they will never accept Islamists and they will never accept democracy, not that the opposition would give them the chance to accept it at this stage anyway.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 01:46
|
|
|
i poo poo trains posted:There hasn't been a single high-level defection that had a material effect on the regime's abiliity to govern or fight the war. Not one. No one from the interior ministries, no one from the governing apparatuses (the ones that have actual power at least), and no one from the military who held actual commands. Certainly nothing like Younis in Libya or the entire command structure in Egypt. If Assad really is being crippled by defections, it must be the nebulous, non-specific 'high-level' kind that for some reason is only mentioned in conjunction with Tlass and the 'PM'. I hate to pull a The military isn't the only thing that matters. Thanks for realizing that any minute.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 02:00
|
|
|
farraday posted:The military isn't the only thing that matters. Thanks for realizing that any minute. If these defections aren't taking place in the military and they're not taking place in the interior ministries and the political circles where are they taking place, and how are they crippling the regime? Please be specific.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 02:18
|
|
|
farraday posted:The military isn't the only thing that matters. Thanks for realizing that any minute. Yeah cool. Fact remains that as high-ranking as they might be, none of the people who have defected so far are indispensable to the functioning of the regime, or even close to it. The PM had little real power, and other than him, defectors number, what? some ambassadors, a couple of secretaries, and some members of parliament? There's been a bunch of military defections, but none of them (except for Tlass, I guess) were part of the inner circle. The closest to a crippling blow to Assad remains the bombing attack on July 18th.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 02:35
|
|
|
There isn't a regime anymore, this is pretty much anarchy. Assad's gang is just the biggest and baddest. It's like Gotham City - except not isolated from the outside world, and alot more complex than entombed (but OK!) cops and organized thugs. We miss you, Brown Moses. Does anyone know more beyond his rare twitter posts?
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 02:57
|
|
|
Amazing how the ground shifted, let me go back to what I wrote that I poo poo trains felt the need to try and correct.quote:The structure of the regime is collapsing, however it's military control is still strong Now apparently I have to defend how I think quote:If these defections aren't taking place in the military and they're not taking place in the interior ministries and the political circles where are they taking place, and how are they crippling the regime? It's like you're just pissed off about last time you tried to correct me and I ranting randomly. The military is not the whole of the regime. I explained in specifics and you just keep coming back "well the military is all like rawr still." You're pretending they're not taking place in the political circles because you have this really strange idea that sunnis are appointed to worthless positions for no reason in particular and them jumping ship therefore doesn't matter. Of course if you took a second that sunnis are being appointed to these positions for real and specific regions you would realize their jumping ship does matter. Also, your attempt to pretend the pro stability center would consider razing the largest city in the country as stability is loving gormless. Just thought I'd add that. You also might want to consider other reasons why pulling a goodwin and comparing defections in a Civil War to World War 2 is obnoxiously stupid.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 03:51
|
|
|
McDowell posted:There isn't a regime anymore, this is pretty much anarchy. Assad's gang is just the biggest and baddest. BM is on a much deserved vacation, IIRC. Also, the defections may be important for eventually standing up a post-Assad government, but until the Allawite core at every critical institution begins to crack, they won't mean much. Nir Rosen said it best a while ago- the Syrian government couldn't meaningfully reform because it would mean the downfall of the Allawite state within a state.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 04:50
|
|
|
SexyBlindfold posted:Yeah cool. Fact remains that as high-ranking as they might be, none of the people who have defected so far are indispensable to the functioning of the regime, or even close to it. And yet its capacity has been irreparably reduced, in part from defections.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 04:57
|
|
|
Rebels make proper use of a T-62 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R7KHzyELXyA&feature=plcp In Dier ez Zor (Eastern Syria) we have video of some T-55s being looted. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wc37-picksA&feature=plcp Also a whole bunch of video on protests/celebrations marking Eid in spite of the ongoing violence. And look who came out of his doom bunker.  Aww someone had a bad Ramadan.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 13:40
|
|
|
farraday posted:And look who came out of his doom bunker. Middle East Wars: Maybe if I shaved they'd stop comparing me to Hitler? Middle East Wars: Getting rid of Bashar one facial hair at a time Middle East Wars: Bashar's shaven for terrorists Middle East Wars: Blood is easier to wash from a shaved face
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 14:32
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:I hope you're not expecting anyone to have a definitive answer to that. No, just opinions, cause its all we have at this point. I agree nobody really knows the difinitive answer, or maybe even what the real game is, in an evolving situation.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 16:11
|
|
|
farraday posted:Rebels make proper use of a T-62 "God, if you keep me alive through Ramadan, I'll do anything. I'll even shave off this ridiculous moustache!"
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 17:54
|
|
|
Nenonen posted:Middle East Wars: Maybe if I shaved they'd stop comparing me to Hitler? All of them, on rotation 
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 20:32
|
|
|
SexyBlindfold posted:Yeah cool. Fact remains that as high-ranking as they might be, none of the people who have defected so far are indispensable to the functioning of the regime, or even close to it. The PM had little real power, and other than him, defectors number, what? some ambassadors, a couple of secretaries, and some members of parliament? There's been a bunch of military defections, but none of them (except for Tlass, I guess) were part of the inner circle. The closest to a crippling blow to Assad remains the bombing attack on July 18th. Farouq Alsharaa is almost certainly hiding with the FSA inside Syria, and there will be a string of more high-profile defections soon. The fact is the regime is increasingly losing control of vast swaths of the country, the Sunni elite have largely shunned it, supply-chain problems are bogging many of its operations and Assad is unable to retake the country's commercial capital and largest city. Also, Assad looks like a cat.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 20:51
|
|
|
Assad's mustache was recently seen among a group of defectors crossing the border into Jordan.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 22:00
|
|
|
Fasting is hard enough when questions of how many innocents you have blown up aren't tugging on the edges of your consciousness.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 22:12
|
|
|
I doubt he even fasted to be honest.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 22:26
|
|
|
That looks exactly like what it feels like mid-fast.
|
|
#
?
Aug 19, 2012 22:28
|
|
|
Are we counting Pakistan as part of the Greater Middle East for this thread? http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-19311098 quote:An 11-year-old Christian girl has been arrested after being accused of desecrating pages of a book containing Islamic text.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 00:14
|
|
|
farraday posted:It's like you're just pissed off about last time you tried to correct me and I ranting randomly. The military is not the whole of the regime. I explained in specifics and you just keep coming back "well the military is all like rawr still." You're pretending they're not taking place in the political circles because you have this really strange idea that sunnis are appointed to worthless positions for no reason in particular and them jumping ship therefore doesn't matter. Of course if you took a second that sunnis are being appointed to these positions for real and specific regions you would realize their jumping ship does matter. For some reason you've declared the regime's military strength as non-applicable (what sort of mass defections that cripple the regime don't cripple the military?) and have, with little reason, insisted that I've been focusing on the military to the exclusion of the other parts of the state with such hubris and viritrol I wonder if you bother to even read my posts before you respond to them. quote:Also, your attempt to pretend the pro stability center would consider razing the largest city in the country as stability is loving gormless. Just thought I'd add that. quote:You also might want to consider other reasons why pulling a goodwin and comparing defections in a Civil War to World War 2 is obnoxiously stupid.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 04:44
|
|
|
Brown Moses is tweeting from Turkey. Why do I feel like he pulled a Caro and snuck in to Syria to get more info?
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 05:42
|
|
|
The wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen have brought out a nasty, pro-Authoritarian streak in Counterpunch. Is it really necessary for elements of the hard left to steadfastly spout propaganda for vicious, bloodthirsty dictatorships simply because the U.S. doesn't like them? I mean, really. The assholes at counterpunch have really been going on out a limb with some of this ("We're not Assad supporters")pro-Assad garbage. http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/08/17/syrian-australians-demand-an-end-to-foreign-intervention/
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 06:15
|
|
|
WoodyMangoMan posted:The wars in Libya, Syria and Yemen have brought out a nasty, pro-Authoritarian streak in Counterpunch. Is it really necessary for elements of the hard left to steadfastly spout propaganda for vicious, bloodthirsty dictatorships simply because the U.S. doesn't like them? I mean, really. The assholes at counterpunch have really been going on out a limb with some of this ("We're not Assad supporters")pro-Assad garbage. The far wings of politics have a lot of people largely motivated by tribal loyalties over principles, and on the left "gently caress you dad" is a dominant one. The Arab Spring's really brought a lot of them to the forefront though.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 07:19
|
|
|
i poo poo trains posted:You haven't offered specific examples. You have retreaded the narrative that the Alawites and minorities are the only ones that still support the regime and expecting me to believe that the offices of Prime Minister and Deputy Oil Minister are somehow critical posts that the Assad regime can't survive without, or that simultaneously they aren't important on their own but indicitive of a general trend. How are the Sunnis 'jumping ship' in extremely limited, highly publicized cases, somehow solely indicative of the ungluing of the state and not, say, a few examples exaggerated by the press done by oppurtunists with no future in the regime anyway? It's not a secret that the Sauds and Qataris would and have offered lavish support to defectors, and it's not a far cry to imagine that many of the 'high profile' defectors did so for personal gain. To continue, if Assad's regime relies so much on controlling sectarianism, why has he provoked it, and continues to provoke them to this day? Is he suicidal? And yet here you are portraying the defectors and non defectors in black and white. Assad has put people close to him on house arrest to prevent them from defecting. As far as basic troops, they've focused on artillery and bombings to prevent them from being close enough to defect. We can't know how much support Assad has from his own forces, because those who sympathize with the rebels would probably be made example of if they were found out. It's just as likely, if not more so, that 90% of everyone under Assad would cut and run the second they could be assured of their families safety and a way to do it as it is that no one with any credibility with the regime would even consider defecting because they would feel like criminals.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 08:11
|
|
|
The X-man cometh posted:Brown Moses is tweeting from Turkey. Why do I feel like he pulled a Caro and snuck in to Syria to get more info? Unlikely, he probably was visiting his wife's family. It remains unknown if the sea creature which attempted to assassinate him was a minion of Murdoch, Assad, or a insurance policy set up by Qaddafi. Also, The rebels still need designated AA Chairs http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jmFdJ_RRIYA&feature=plcp [Seriously guys, this is not effective, stop it.] farraday fucked around with this message at 12:09 on Aug 20, 2012 |
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 11:17
|
|
|
Reports coming that the director of Air Force Intelligence Jamil Hassan has died of injuries sustained in combat. He was apparently a feared secret police leader.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 17:12
|
|
|
Killer robot posted:The far wings of politics have a lot of people largely motivated by tribal loyalties over principles, and on the left "gently caress you dad" is a dominant one. The Arab Spring's really brought a lot of them to the forefront though. This is the struggle of our time. These names are just bullshit that hold us back (1984 is about how language controls thought and political discourse - newspeak). The real challenge, it seems to me, is to eliminate double standards as much as can be allowed. Name calling tears society apart.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 21:03
|
|
|
MothraAttack posted:Reports coming that the director of Air Force Intelligence Jamil Hassan has died of injuries sustained in combat. He was apparently a feared secret police leader. Air Force Intelligence CHIEF. The Air Force Intelligence was probably the most powerful of Assad's intelligence services because of the fact that Hafez Assad was an Air Force guy.
|
|
#
?
Aug 20, 2012 23:22
|
|
|
If this guy was so important, why was he anywhere near combat? Aren't logistics and that sort of stuff generally handled outside of the combat zone?
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 00:27
|
|
|
Sivias posted:If this guy was so important, why was he anywhere near combat? Aren't logistics and that sort of stuff generally handled outside of the combat zone? I had a post a couple pages back when Maher Assad got his legs blown off with some armchair psychology. But, really, it comes down a lot to trust issues, especially with the regime in collapse and defections happening more often.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 00:34
|
|
|
Sivias posted:If this guy was so important, why was he anywhere near combat? Aren't logistics and that sort of stuff generally handled outside of the combat zone? He might have been severely injured by the bomb blast that killed his comrades several weeks ago. Also could have been wounded by assassins or in an attempted kidnapping. He supposedly died in a Moscow hospital and his body was flown back to Damascus.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 00:38
|
|
|
Sivias posted:If this guy was so important, why was he anywhere near combat? Aren't logistics and that sort of stuff generally handled outside of the combat zone? Until specified, 'combat' could mean anything from an assassination to IED to a random stray bullet caught in Damascus. Or maybe he really was a hands-on type of manager and flew recon flights personally. He might also have slipped in bathroom for all we know.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 00:42
|
|
|
Sivias posted:If this guy was so important, why was he anywhere near combat? Aren't logistics and that sort of stuff generally handled outside of the combat zone? WW1 was the height of the idea of running a war from a desk and there were still hundreds of generals killed. Besides if the government has lost control of anywhere near the 2/3rds of the country that Riad Farid Hijab claims then there really isn't anywhere that's safe. Remember all the attacks inside the green zone in Bagdad?
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 04:58
|
|
|
I seem to recall speculation that he was injured in the Damascus bombing, but I might be mistaken. Regardless, "combat" is a vague term and could encompass a lot of things, from internal assassination to a bombing injury to a major FSA plot to a stupid frontline injury. edit: And a deceased Japanese journalist in an Aleppo gunfight marks that nation's first fatality of the conflict. RIP Mika Yamamoto. MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Aug 21, 2012 |
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 05:00
|
|
|
Young Freud posted:I had a post a couple pages back when Maher Assad got his legs blown off with some armchair psychology. But, really, it comes down a lot to trust issues, especially with the regime in collapse and defections happening more often. I agree with this. Probably any Syrian big leading from the back has huge defection problems with his dudes. It's like being a middle manager and asking your team to work overtime while you leave early to go golfing.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 06:47
|
|
|
Finally back in the UK, catching up with things on the thread. I've currently got about 6 articles planned for when I've got functional internet, some of which I'm hoping to sell, so fingers crossed. First Monday of my holiday the BBC News 24 Interenational channel invited me for a live interview, so that's the 3rd time I've missed appearing on the BBC, and this time on TV, not radio. Also, gently caress Weevers, those fishy stinging bastards. And yay for powerful painkillers.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 10:52
|
|
|
Brown Moses posted:Finally back in the UK, catching up with things on the thread. I've currently got about 6 articles planned for when I've got functional internet, some of which I'm hoping to sell, so fingers crossed. First Monday of my holiday the BBC News 24 Interenational channel invited me for a live interview, so that's the 3rd time I've missed appearing on the BBC, and this time on TV, not radio. BM you coy bastard. If you keep stringing the BBC along like that they're going to think you don't care.Anyways, he's an incredibly good Chivers piece providing an inside look on a rebel group. http://www.nytimes.com/2012/08/21/w...dit_ee_20120821 Well worth the read, especially if you're wondering about the formation of rebel groups and insurgency tactics. It's pretty intense.
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 12:26
|
|
|
He mentioned he was just back on Facebook a couple of days ago, looks like he came across some interesting stuff some I'm looking forward to his upcoming articles based on what he experienced. I noted while I was away Spiegel Online linked to my blog on an article that appears not be a million miles away from the piece I wrote for Foreign Policy. I'm going to work on a piece about Syria's escalating air war, apparently there was a clear photo of a MiG in Syria posted on the Daily Telegraph website, but I've yet to find it, anyone know about that?
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 12:38
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 7, 2024 00:41 |
|
|
Are you talking about the MIG that was shot down or a more recent still airborne MIG?
|
|
#
?
Aug 21, 2012 12:45
|
|