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mindphlux posted:lol are any of you actually buying or selling apple stock based on your guesses about the future direction of the mobile market and the ability of different companies in the same sector to capitalize on eachother's misgivings No everyone is just buying Apple because everyone else is and that is the new normal. Ride the bubble to the burst! I called 700 when it crossed 600, I am calling ride the bitch to 800 now. (Note I don't own any Apple because I am stupid.) What happened to the guy who had everything in Apple. Anyway don't short peoples vanity, you will never win.
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Sep 19, 2012 18:21
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Elephanthead posted:What happened to the guy who had everything in Apple. You talking about me? I'm making money through these delicious $2-3 bounces. Also gonna hold over the weekend in hopes that Apple releases sales stats for the first weekend before trading Monday so I can clean a tidy profit (or suffer a morbid loss if they don't  )
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Sep 19, 2012 18:27
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Virigoth posted:How do you guys feel about WIN for a good long term stock with dividends?
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Sep 19, 2012 18:49
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Josh Lyman posted:If you want a dividend play, why not a REIT like NLY? Because I have little to no idea what I'm doing, but I'm working on learning the market. Why would you take that stock over Windstream if you don't mind me asking?
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Sep 19, 2012 20:22
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I'm not a fan of WIN's debt to equity.
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Sep 19, 2012 20:28
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Josh Lyman posted:If you want a dividend play, why not a REIT like NLY? Speaking of REITs, I know some here are invested in ARR. Anyone think it is time to get out? They dropped their payout to .09 which I think is the third straight quarter with a decrease. I am in positive territory on capital appreciation and I'm thinking it might be time to let this one go. On a percentage basis though, yield is still attractive...
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Sep 19, 2012 20:35
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Yeah I'd say away from WIN if you're looking at its dividend. The payout ratio has been >1 since 2009. Currently it's 3.3. This means they are paying out more in dividends than they are earning. (For dividend stocks the highest you usually want the payout ratio to go is 0.66, depending on sector.) Their current ratio is also > 1. Unless something changes their financial situation looks shaky and their dividend is currently hot air. Without digging into further detail these two signs point to the fact they might just be taking on debt and paying it out to shareholders as dividends -- would be interesting if someone could show how I'm wrong. Edit: Also, one thing to remember is the old maxim "If it's too good to be true, it probably is." Currently treasuries are yielding 1.8%. If you are buying a security that is yielding almost 6x as much, you're being heavily compensated for some type of (likely very dangerous) risk. In this case, my guess is you're pretty exposed to WIN going bankrupt. With high yielding REITs, you are generally exposed to fragile real estate markets and their sensitivity to interest rates. Also, REITs are pretty overbought right now and you are exposed to P/E's and P/B's levelling off and the stock price being corrected. nebby fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Sep 19, 2012 |
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Sep 19, 2012 23:26
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Check out the daily candle for QCOR today lmao. Wild action today. 3 trading halts in the same day  Surely in play tomorrow...
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Sep 20, 2012 01:32
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Even with ARR cut it is over 14% payout locked till Dec. I'm staying. Still in profit mode. Will likely keep until they hit 8% on yield.
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Sep 20, 2012 02:25
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I ditched ARR in favor of IVR or TWO or something.
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Sep 20, 2012 02:37
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Re Windstream, their free cash flow is a couple hundred million higher than their earnings, (which still means the dividend is covered only almost exactly once) and the thing about telecom equipment becoming cheaper over time means that their depreciation is in excess of new capital expenditures, which addresses the debt/equity ratio. I think it more likely the value of equity is understated than that the free cash flow yield on equity is about 45%.
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Sep 20, 2012 04:37
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Turkeybone posted:I ditched ARR in favor of IVR or TWO or something. I spread my REIT money between ARR, NLY and AGNC. AGNC seems like it has a much brighter future than the other two from what I've read lately (the quality and term of their holdings as well as their management) - I hate putting all my eggs in one basket though. Any other reits people like?
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Sep 20, 2012 06:37
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I've said it before in here, but I really like PSEC. A BDC, paying out a solid 10% monthly, and from what I've looked at are doing very well. I am looking for them to dip a bit more than their current price before buying a whole bunch more.
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Sep 20, 2012 14:44
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Man I really did an awesome job selling that $70 put on NSC two days ago. Stock is down 13% in two days. gently caress.
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Sep 20, 2012 16:37
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That gap down... I know what Jim Chanos is saying about 13fs and I agree with him for the most part. But I still use them to get an idea of what stocks to look at. But they're not the basis of whether I am going to invest in them or not. http://www.businessinsider.com/jim-chanos-13f-2012-9
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Sep 20, 2012 17:08
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nebby posted:Yeah I'd say away from WIN if you're looking at its dividend. The payout ratio has been >1 since 2009. Currently it's 3.3. This means they are paying out more in dividends than they are earning. Thanks for clueing me into payout ratio. I'm new to high dividend yield investing too and haven't been paying attention to this ratio in any of my purchases so far.
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Sep 20, 2012 18:06
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nebby posted:Man I really did an awesome job selling that $70 put on NSC two days ago. Stock is down 13% in two days. gently caress. Why did you sell it then?
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Sep 20, 2012 22:08
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Turkeybone posted:Why did you sell it then? Turns out, the market was stupid and was shocked, shocked I tell you, to see that the coal + drought has had an effect on earnings as announced with a decline in EPS expectations last night. I should have kept a closer eye on expected EPS to realize the margin for error wasn't as large as I thought. Edit: I do think the market overreacted, however, and we'll see it slowly corrected upwards over the next 4 weeks as people realize NSC is actively lowering coal exposure quarter-over-quarter and that this EPS hit is only going to affect this and maybe next quarter. My guess is I'll get assigned the stock oct 20 at about $68, which isn't too bad. nebby fucked around with this message at 22:33 on Sep 20, 2012 |
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Sep 20, 2012 22:29
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mindphlux posted:lol are any of you actually buying or selling apple stock based on your guesses about the future direction of the mobile market and the ability of different companies in the same sector to capitalize on eachother's misgivings Not a bad year.
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Sep 21, 2012 03:29
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pr0k posted:Not a bad year.  
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Sep 21, 2012 03:57
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Nice work. For me, I can't afford that much risk this late in the game. e: those are all roughly one-year returns?
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Sep 21, 2012 04:03
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What was the 900%+ return for? That's crazy... Was that a year?
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Sep 21, 2012 04:31
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What brokerage page is that?
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Sep 21, 2012 18:33
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Virigoth posted:What brokerage page is that? Fidelity.
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Sep 21, 2012 18:36
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Anybody else watching Apple-- the MMs are pinning it down to 700 before OPEX... if you wanna buy now to hold for Monday when sales figures are released, you better jump in. e: They don't even try to hide it, lol:  Shmoogy fucked around with this message at 19:31 on Sep 21, 2012 |
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Sep 21, 2012 19:26
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pr0k posted:Not a bad year. I acquired almost exactly a month after you did (up 75%). To get there, I had cashed out all my other positions (CSCO, GM, FDX, GOOG, etc) and went balls to the wall. I know diversification and yadda yadda but AAPL was really the only company I felt comfortable enough doing that with and I find that I prefer to track just a handful of guys. When I sell in 1Q13, I'm taking the wife out to dinner, paying down some bills, and won't be investing again until AAPL, GOOG, or AMZN take a news shock.
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Sep 21, 2012 19:48
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Wait, you guys play the market when you have debts? Ballsy.
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Sep 21, 2012 20:02
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Paying bills doesn't earn you a 75% return in 10 months 
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Sep 21, 2012 20:12
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cowofwar posted:Wait, you guys play the market when you have debts? Ballsy. Safe as houses man.
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Sep 21, 2012 20:14
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pr0k posted:Nice work. For me, I can't afford that much risk this late in the game. Definitely not. The 900%+ is ~6 years.
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Sep 21, 2012 21:15
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Going to double down on railroads after that selloff. I've owned KSU for awhile and this looks like a good chance to pick up some NSC. I also don't really understand how people were surprised about the reduction in coal shipments this quarter, or why the big banks only just decided to downgrade the stocks because of it. It's been hitting the railroads this entire year, and the reduction in YOY coal revenue has been about the same for every quarter. There's far more in the future of railroads than coal, especially with gas prices only increasing and trains becoming more effecient. Betting the banks will be picking up railroads in the near future after knocking a good chunk off their price. scavok fucked around with this message at 01:46 on Sep 22, 2012 |
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Sep 22, 2012 01:42
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Not too sure on railroads, have to read up more on it but my gut says buy the dips. Rail traffic is still very high.
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Sep 22, 2012 02:25
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scavok posted:Going to double down on railroads after that selloff. I've owned KSU for awhile and this looks like a good chance to pick up some NSC. I also don't really understand how people were surprised about the reduction in coal shipments this quarter, or why the big banks only just decided to downgrade the stocks because of it. It's been hitting the railroads this entire year, and the reduction in YOY coal revenue has been about the same for every quarter. I think there's about an even chance that once the 10-q comes out you will see it pop back up as people realize that the quality of earnings of the NSC remains solid.
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Sep 22, 2012 02:43
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I've a bit of an odd question: if I have a script which make certain trades at certain times, how should I connect it to an online trading platform? My foremost priority would be security, with speed and cost as secondary concerns. What platform would the thread recommend?
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Sep 22, 2012 21:13
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What do you guys think of TPX (Tempur-Pedic International) as a value play? The stock looks fairly priced to me. The company generates steady free cash flow and has low levels of debt. I understand that the world's current economic situation is a detriment for a high-end mattress manufacturer but it seems to me the stock has been unduly punished recently due to disappointing sales. Does anyone see hidden risk in Tempur-Pedic?
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Sep 22, 2012 23:02
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Ravarek posted:What do you guys think of TPX (Tempur-Pedic International) as a value play? The stock looks fairly priced to me. The company generates steady free cash flow and has low levels of debt. I understand that the world's current economic situation is a detriment for a high-end mattress manufacturer but it seems to me the stock has been unduly punished recently due to disappointing sales. Does anyone see hidden risk in Tempur-Pedic? - Their inventory quarter over quarter has increased steadily yet their revenue has been flat or last quarter went down. - They literally have negative shareholder equity due to excessive debt, unless I'm reading their financials wrong this looks pretty scary
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Sep 23, 2012 00:07
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nebby posted:- They literally have negative shareholder equity due to excessive debt, unless I'm reading their financials wrong this looks pretty scary If that's true, stay away. Far away.
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Sep 23, 2012 00:45
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APDN had a great week! A 62% increase for this week. The mandate from the Defense Logistics Agency for their suppliers to use APDNs marking tech is due to go into effect at the end of this month.
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Sep 23, 2012 22:48
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Looks like a great gambler stock. I'm surprised you dumped $12,000 into this.
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Sep 24, 2012 00:18
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Harry posted:Looks like a great gambler stock. I'm surprised you dumped $12,000 into this. Citation for your gambler stock comment please. I haven't just randomly dumped money into this. I started looking into this back around Dec of 2010 when it was around a nickel a share and have added to the position since. There have been a lot of developments as of late which is why it is a .22 now compared to .06 6 weeks ago. The Defense Logistics Agency (the procurement arm of the DoD) completed their 18 month test and found that the product is not able to be copied, thus assuring authenticity of marked items. Additionally they have since then mandated (yes mandated) that suppliers they use that provide parts for chips/circuits and cpus marked with APDN technology. There are quite a few suppliers that fall under this category. This 596 page PDF file lists all current parts and companies that supply items to the DLA that now must be marked. http://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...cad=rja%3Cbr%3E MrBigglesworth fucked around with this message at 00:38 on Sep 24, 2012 |
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Sep 24, 2012 00:31
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