|
jet sanchEz posted:Could it be a gamble? He is loading up the jets in order to get an offer of asylum from somewhere? Pretty sure he already has offers of asylum. Edit: Yep, thought someone said that a couple pages back. http://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...602c_story.html Volkerball fucked around with this message at 18:27 on Dec 6, 2012 |
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:25
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 15:36 |
|
|
While Assad is fighting in order to hold on to power, he's also fighting, or thinks that he's fighting to save the Alawites. These are his people, he's responsible for them, so it's his obligation to fight as hard as possible, with any means necessary in order to preserve them. There has been pretty disturbing anti Shia and anti Alawite rhetoric by some of the Islamist groups fighting against the regime.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:30
|
|
|
If you give any credibility at all to Assad's rhetoric, then he's going to play this out to the end. But we can certainly hope that's all bullshit. Thinking on parallels between the U.S./Libya and Russia/Syria, it really is strange that Russia hasn't acted more quickly to protect its interests in the country. Maybe they bet on the wrong horse, but I would have thought the way the U.S. handled disavowing Gadhafi would be a pretty good model for Russia in a situation like this. speng31b fucked around with this message at 18:39 on Dec 6, 2012 |
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:37
|
|
|
e: nvm, talking about two different videos
mitztronic fucked around with this message at 19:18 on Dec 6, 2012 |
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:41
|
|
|
There's also the possibility that this is no longer Assad's war, and his crazy brother or someone else in the military is running things now.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:43
|
|
|
octoroon posted:If you give any credibility at all to Assad's rhetoric, then he's going to play this out to the end. But we can certainly hope that's all bullshit. Well honestly, historical odds show that Assad will fight to the very bitter end. Few dictators in History have taken the cut and run option when they are involved in an active war.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:44
|
|
|
Egypt getting worse, Morsi has moved some tanks in, as if that will help anything:quote:Egypt deploys tanks outside Morsi palace http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/12/201212662141734397.html And here is what Syria has to say regarding chemical weapons: quote:(Reuters) - Western powers are whipping up fears of a fateful move to the use of chemical weapons in Syria's civil war as a "pretext for intervention", President Bashar al-Assad's deputy foreign minister said on Thursday.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:46
|
|
|
mitztronic posted:And here is what Syria has to say regarding chemical weapons: Well they're pretty much either going to use the weapons, resulting in an intervention, or not. What is he going to do, claim that thousands dead of Sarin was just a really nasty strain of the flu this year?
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:52
|
|
|
octoroon posted:If you give any credibility at all to Assad's rhetoric, then he's going to play this out to the end. But we can certainly hope that's all bullshit. http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/adamcurtis/2012/10/hes_behind_you.html Syria is a big part of the Eurasian power balance (Its location and role as Russia's connection). North Africa has less geopolitical baggage. Didn't Gaddafi try to swamp south Europe with waves of Refugees near the end? Gaddafi 'reformed' around 03 but he was always useful to cast as the bad guy. Syria's location and deep ties to Russia (Plus their support in Desert Storm) brings lots of different interests and narratives into conflict.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 18:57
|
|
|
octoroon posted:Well they're pretty much either going to use the weapons, resulting in an intervention, or not. What is he going to do, claim that thousands dead of Sarin was just a really nasty strain of the flu this year? From the article it seems like he would claim that a chemical attack was actually a false flag operation performed by foreign entities as a pretext for invasion. They've been pushing this "foreign influence" angle for quite some time, arguing that they would never use chemical weapons (if they had them...) against their own people. Of course the fact that they routinely refer to the rebels as foreign terrorists suggests that they're willing to use an extremely liberal definition of "their" people.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:02
|
|
|
octoroon posted:Well they're pretty much either going to use the weapons, resulting in an intervention, or not. What is he going to do, claim that thousands dead of Sarin was just a really nasty strain of the flu this year? He's claiming that the reports of them are fabricated, and that they don't have these weapons and therefore aren't preparing or going to use them. He's saying that the Western powers have made it all up as an excuse to invade, a la Iraq.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:11
|
|
|
octoroon posted:Thinking on parallels between the U.S./Libya and Russia/Syria, it really is strange that Russia hasn't acted more quickly to protect its interests in the country. Maybe they bet on the wrong horse, but I would have thought the way the U.S. handled disavowing Gadhafi would be a pretty good model for Russia in a situation like this. I think it kind of snowballed out of control. Putin runs on standing tough against the west. Russian relations with Syria were basically the last bastion of Russian influence in the ME, and being in hot water already, Putin had to maintain those relations or risk some serious questioning from the Russian people. Right from the get go, when Assad had soldiers open fire on demonstrations, RT and Russia portrayed the demonstrators as terrorists, Assad as defending his country, etc. I'm sure they assumed that this wouldn't be a lasting conflict with any meaningful outcome, so when the FSA formed, they doubled down on that narrative. Then the fighting kept going, and it turned into a legit civil war, and that is probably the first they legitimately had to question how they were handling it. They would either have to drop all the rhetoric they had put out about Assad, drop support, and lose influence in the area, which I imagine wouldn't have gone over too well with the Russian people, or they could keep at it and hope for Assad to pull it off. They chose the latter.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:11
|
|
|
Beer4TheBeerGod posted:From the article it seems like he would claim that a chemical attack was actually a false flag operation performed by foreign entities as a pretext for invasion. http://www.infowars.com/shock-video-shows-syrian-rebels-testing-chemical-weapons/ Two narratives are coming into direct conflict 
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:14
|
|
|
warning: super cute bunnies being killed in this video. don't click if you don't want to ruin your day e: VVVV what the gently caress is a "concern troll"? And believe it or not we post disclaimers on this site for disturbing videos (i.e. every single disturbing video in this thread is marked NMS, go ahead and take a look back. just because we have all seen multiple videos of people with their intestines hanging out and dead/maimed children doesnt make this video any less disturbing) mitztronic fucked around with this message at 19:55 on Dec 6, 2012 |
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:21
|
|
|
mitztronic posted:warning: super cute bunnies being killed in this video. don't click if you don't want to ruin your day I think the more disturbing element is the implication that Alex Jones is a noisemaker for Russia  I think we've all seen such horrible things in this thread that I'm not that concerned about your concern troll.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:28
|
|
|
I think it's also important to remember it isn't the first time Assad has committed massacres before, IE the Homs massacre. Wouldn't be surprised if Assad dropped some chemical weapons on civilian homes.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:32
|
|
|
On Egypt, it looks as though Brotherhood supporters are behaving like ad hoc militias against anti Islamist protesters. http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/8819/the-muslim-brotherhoods-militias-in-action_a-first quote:The retreat was unusual. In other protests people would run for a few seconds and then stop. This retreat covered far more distance. The usual calls of “ithbat” (Arabic for “stay put”), which are often yelled when protests experience attacks, did not seem to work. As I recovered from the run, I realized that the Muslim Brotherhood’s supporters were very close. I saw a young protester shaking his head and telling me, “they are using shotguns.” Then it registered that the big bangs I had been hearing were gunshots. And here is a video of Ikhwan stripping and beating an anti Islamist protester, nws http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SU5Y_vb9Ugw&feature=youtube_gdata_player
|
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 19:38
|
|
|
Is there a shorter shelf life on these chemical weapons once the components are mixed?
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 20:11
|
|
|
AKA Pseudonym posted:Is there a shorter shelf life on these chemical weapons once the components are mixed? I don't know about all of different chemical weapons they have, but this is very true for Sarin: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sarin Sarin Wikipedia entry posted:The most important chemical reactions of phosphoryl halides is the hydrolysis of the bond between phosphorus and the fluoride. This P-F bond is easily broken by nucleophilic agents, such as water and hydroxide. At high pH, sarin decomposes rapidly to nontoxic phosphonic acid derivatives.[10][11]
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 20:20
|
|
|
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 21:46
|
|
|
az jan jananam posted:On Egypt, it looks as though Brotherhood supporters are behaving like ad hoc militias against anti Islamist protesters. Heh, I remember when people were claiming that the Muslim Brotherhood being in charge in Egypt wouldn't be a bad thing.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:11
|
|
|
So, I hate to be Armchair Historian Man, but how close to Egypt coming to 19th century Paris/Ancient Rome style mob rule? Because to me at least, reading these articles it looks like whoever has the biggest crowd in Cairo gets what they want.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:14
|
|
|
It's like an extroverted version of democracy!
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:18
|
|
|
Dr. Tough posted:So, I hate to be Armchair Historian Man, but how close to Egypt coming to 19th century Paris/Ancient Rome style mob rule? Because to me at least, reading these articles it looks like whoever has the biggest crowd in Cairo gets what they want.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:29
|
|
|
The situation in Egypt is what I'm worried is going to happen in Syria in the end. Rebels of all beliefs have come together to fight against the government for now, but it seems that the more religious and conservative people lead the Syrian rebel government. When it finally shakes out the majority leaders will grab control and will oppress or try to rid the nation of those who don't follow their view point.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:49
|
|
|
The aftermath of most initial revolutions in the Arab spring are really hard to judge, Libya, Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen.. Nothing has really turned out as rosy as first projections. This will very likely be the case in Syria, too.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:52
|
|
|
I'd be interested to see a comparison of some of the Arab Spring conflicts to the American Civil War. It's a good frame of reference for most Americans, and it might be an interesting way to contextualize them as far as length, percentage of population killed, property damage, etc.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:57
|
|
|
Smashurbanipal posted:While Assad is fighting in order to hold on to power, he's also fighting, or thinks that he's fighting to save the Alawites. These are his people, he's responsible for them, so it's his obligation to fight as hard as possible, with any means necessary in order to preserve them. There has been pretty disturbing anti Shia and anti Alawite rhetoric by some of the Islamist groups fighting against the regime. I think if Assad went ahead and used chemical weapons on the rebels, he'd pretty much be signing the death warrant of every Alawite in Syria. I can't imagine the kind of sectarian violence something like that would cause.
|
|
#
?
Dec 6, 2012 22:59
|
|
|
Thewittyname posted:I think if Assad went ahead and used chemical weapons on the rebels, he'd pretty much be signing the death warrant of every Alawite in Syria. I can't imagine the kind of sectarian violence something like that would cause. I think the Alawites are pretty much screwed whether Assad uses chemical weapons or not. If and when the rebels win this war, you can bet theres going to be some serious retribution and/or ethnic cleansing going on against the Alawites. Thats why as much as I would love this conflict to end its not a stretch to say that we are just in phase 1 and phase 2 could be just as bloody.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:14
|
|
|
mitztronic posted:warning: super cute bunnies being killed in this video. don't click if you don't want to ruin your day Because with all the videos of people being killed in this mess that's not much. And for people like me who've owned pythons what happened there is really drat tame. Rabbits scream when in pain or fear and it sounds like someone is boiling a baby alive. Rabbits are like popcorn shrimp in the animal kingdom, I have no idea how many dozens of the fuckers I've thrown to snakes over the years. And contrary to belief they aren't very sympathetic creatures. They're dumb as a rock.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:22
|
|
|
mynamewas posted:The revolution only happened a little under two years ago and most people viewing the situation understood that Mubarak's military remained basically unmolested and that the Muslim Brotherhood only holds power because they made a pact with the military. The people genuinely made secular demands for freedom and equality, and they know they have to fight for it. Yeah, the revolution was not a 1979 Islamist one, there were plenty of Copts in the crowds, there's a picture out there with a Priest and an Imam (correct me if these titles are wrong) standing aside each other, arms over each others' shoulders, cheering everyone on, one waving a cross and the other a Quran. It's possible people took religious considerations on a personal level but the character of the whole movement was not of one religion or another. Morsi's initial moves really gave hope for a sort of rule that was either secular or exceedingly tolerant Islamist, but it's increasingly seeming like it's more of the same. Perhaps if they overthrow Morsi they'll put in ElBaradei (as in from the IAEA) as initially rumored. Pretty sure he was in Tahrir Square in person at some point. Can't recall if there was a reason he wasn't chosen though.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:29
|
|
|
SilentD posted:Rabbits are like popcorn shrimp in the animal kingdom, I have no idea how many dozens of the fuckers I've thrown to snakes over the years. And contrary to belief they aren't very sympathetic creatures. They're dumb as a rock.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:32
|
|
|
The Entire Universe posted:Yeah, the revolution was not a 1979 Islamist one, there were plenty of Copts in the crowds, there's a picture out there with a Priest and an Imam (correct me if these titles are wrong) standing aside each other, arms over each others' shoulders, cheering everyone on, one waving a cross and the other a Quran. It's possible people took religious considerations on a personal level but the character of the whole movement was not of one religion or another. Morsi's initial moves really gave hope for a sort of rule that was either secular or exceedingly tolerant Islamist, but it's increasingly seeming like it's more of the same. From my experience and from people I had talked to El Baradei doesn't really have any support from the people of Egypt, the only people who seem to talk about El Baradei as an actual option are western journalists. He really has no grassroots support or support on the street at all. That may be changing but I don't think its as easy as just saying lets put in El Baradei because there are half a dozen other Egyptian from all stripes that have more support than he does.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:42
|
|
|
Schlieren posted:I've owned rabbits and they all had distinct personalities and capabilities. I'm shocked, however, that someone who fed them to their pet reptile otherized the entire species. Shocked I tell you Do we really have to talk about "otherizing" rabbits? Anyhow I think we can all hopefully agree that watching rabbits be killed is not pleasant for some people and it's fair to post a warning while at the same time acknowledging that it doesn't even begin to approach the horrors being described elsewhere in this thread. Okay? Back on topic, am I the only one who thinks it's incredibly unlikely that the latest Tahrir unrest will result in unseating Morsi? The original revolution had the backing of broad swaths of the country and now it seems like with the Muslim Brotherhood split off defending Morsi nothing can come of this but unrequited bloodshed.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:45
|
|
|
Swarmin Swedes posted:From my experience and from people I had talked to El Baradei doesn't really have any support from the people of Egypt, the only people who seem to talk about El Baradei as an actual option are western journalists. He really has no grassroots support or support on the street at all. That may be changing but I don't think its as easy as just saying lets put in El Baradei because there are half a dozen other Egyptian from all stripes that have more support than he does. Well, there could be a dozen insurrections and revolutions that whittle down the leadership of these factions until only El Baradei remains. He'll be like a liberal Khomenini.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:47
|
|
|
Schlieren posted:I've owned rabbits and they all had distinct personalities and capabilities. I'm shocked, however, that someone who fed them to their pet reptile otherized the entire species. Shocked I tell you I can't really "otherize" rabbits as I am not a rabbit, this is common sense. Just about everything in the wild eats rabbits, not just snakes, if you have a dog or a cat watch what they do when they catch one. I preferred to kill them myself (less screaming for the neighbors to get all snappy about) but some snakes won't eat dead animals, in which case nature has to take it's course. And out of all the myriad of animals I've feed to snakes (mice, rats, chickens, rabbits, and the occasional animal they snagged on their own) the only ones dumber than the rabbits were the chickens. I've had pet rats that I enjoyed and had fun with, doesn't mean I feel anything throwing rats to snakes. Snakes gotta eat.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 00:48
|
|
|
Oh, it's SilentD. Of course. He likes to get people riled up and distracted. Did you know he's a liberal democrat who makes a lot of money and scores with brainless chicks he convinces he's sensitive? Anyhow, so back to being concerned about things. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 01:11
|
|
|
SilentD posted:I can't really "otherize" rabbits as I am not a rabbit, this is common sense. You sound like a pleasant human being. I bet talking about killing animals in cold blood is a perfect ice breaker at parties. Now shut up, please. mynamewas posted:The revolution only happened a little under two years ago and most people viewing the situation understood that Mubarak's military remained basically unmolested and that the Muslim Brotherhood only holds power because they made a pact with the military. The people genuinely made secular demands for freedom and equality, and they know they have to fight for it. Well, yeah, he made pact with the army - but what other options were there? Making peace with the softer wing of the ruling elites is generally a better guarantee of democracy in the long run than trying to oust them as fast as possible and risking their fighting back. I'm afraid it won't be possible to tell whether or not democracy has a chance before a significant generational change in leadership occurs: Then the new politicians will be able to decide between using democratic institutions in the way they were intended, or installing an authoritarian regime. What we have now is just a transitional period before that decision.
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 01:15
|
|
|
Swarmin Swedes posted:From my experience and from people I had talked to El Baradei doesn't really have any support from the people of Egypt, the only people who seem to talk about El Baradei as an actual option are western journalists. He really has no grassroots support or support on the street at all. That may be changing but I don't think its as easy as just saying lets put in El Baradei because there are half a dozen other Egyptian from all stripes that have more support than he does. Thanks for the clarification. I'd imagine his work for the IAEA kept him residing somewhere outside Egypt, which makes him pretty much a non-starter if they had people in the country. I sort of assumed the revolution wasn't readily full of political leaders with national prominence as the government was controlled by Mubarak. 
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 01:45
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 3, 2024 15:36 |
|
|
With Morsy going full Mubarak and Tunisia still dealing with unrest between leftists and Islamists, does that mean Libya currently has the brightest outlook of all the Arab Spring countries? Who would've guessed that a year ago?
|
|
#
?
Dec 7, 2012 01:52
|
|