Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Pieter Pan: May 16, 2004; Bad faith argument here:
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Svartvit posted:

Yes, Bashar's family on his father's side is from there. Was Saddam hiding in Tikrit?

"When Saddam was found by the 4th Infantry Division, he was hiding only a few miles from his hometown in the town of ad-Dawr." (South of Tikrit).

# ? Jan 15, 2013 19:15

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# ? May 25, 2024 18:52

Svartvit: Jun 18, 2005; al-Qabila samaa Bahth

I know Libya is very tribalistic in its social organisation, and Syria fairly so as well, so I guess it's only natural to seek the place where the loyalty is strongest. I guess it was the case in Iraq as well.

# ? Jan 15, 2013 19:23

eSports Chaebol: Feb 22, 2005; Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

Kaal posted:

Devil Child is one of the most realistic and coherent posters here, and he regularly puts together quite convincing arguments that get trashed because they conflict with other people's idealist worldviews. Anyone who's defending Qutb as anything other than a mild reformist with serious character flaws is simply deluding themselves.

No one is defending Qutb--in fact I think your characterization of him is the most defensive that's been posted so far. The surface temperature of Mars is about 186�268 Kelvins. Trying to make broad inferences based on complex extrapolation from a tiny amount of actual information is not a convincing argument. And Qutb has nothing to do with some hypothetical non-existent plan to reintroduce legal slavery in Egypt.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 00:11

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

quote:

Secret State Department cable: Chemical weapons used in Syria

A secret State Department cable has concluded that the Syrian military likely used chemical weapons against its own people in a deadly attack last month, The Cable has learned.

United States diplomats in Turkey conducted a previously undisclosed, intensive investigation into claims that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad used chemical weapons, and made what an Obama administration official who reviewed the cable called a "compelling case" that Assad's military forces had used a deadly form of poison gas.

The cable, signed by the U.S. consul general in Istanbul, Scott Frederic Kilner, and sent to State Department headquarters in Washington last week, outlined the results of the consulate's investigation into reports from inside Syria that chemical weapons had been used in the city of Homs on Dec. 23.

The consul general's report followed a series of interviews with activists, doctors, and defectors, in what the administration official said was one of the most comprehensive efforts the U.S. government has made to investigate claims by internal Syrian sources. The investigation included a meeting between the consulate staff and Mustafa al-Sheikh, a high-level defector who once was a major general in Assad's army and key official in the Syrian military's WMD program.

An Obama administration official who reviewed the document, which was classified at the "secret" level, detailed its contents to The Cable. "We can't definitely say 100 percent, but Syrian contacts made a compelling case that Agent 15 was used in Homs on Dec. 23," the official said.

The use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime would cross the "red line" President Barack Obama first established in an Aug. 20 statement. "We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation," Obama said.

To date, the administration has not initiated any major policy changes in response to the classified cable, but a Deputies Committee meeting of top administration officials is scheduled for this week. (cont)

Seems they concluded it was Agent 15/BZ, which a lot of people thought at the time.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 00:15

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Brown Moses posted:

Seems they concluded it was Agent 15/BZ, which a lot of people thought at the time.

It was kind of a silly line in the sand to draw anyways. Chemical weapons are awful, but with the number of non-combatants being killed in Syria, it's ridiculous to say that we are OK with everything going on right now, but no chemical weapons. Sure the U.S. condemned the regime for what it was already doing, but how are chemical weapons a step up from that? I don't think that this is going to be the last straw and lead to anything substantial. Probably just a harshly worded speech.

Edit: Watch Obama start a loving war.

Volkerball fucked around with this message at 01:02 on Jan 16, 2013

# ? Jan 16, 2013 00:53

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

I have to figure the current financial trench warfare in DC is Obama's top concern right now. This might not even get a speech. As it is, it seems like the Syrian conflict is commanding less and less of the press's attention, especially with the conflict in Mali suddenly drawing a lot of attention.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 00:57

Svartvit: Jun 18, 2005; al-Qabila samaa Bahth

I'm assuming leaking the information was someone's way of trying to put more pressure on Obama ahead of the meeting.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 01:25

Seizure Meat: Jul 23, 2008; by Smythe

I doubt Obama even meant it that literally. One small, not 100% confirmed use of BZ isn't the same as a village or city getting shelled by Sarin or mustard gas. The latter is what I took from the red line comment.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 01:44

BrutalistMcDonalds: Oct 4, 2012; Lipstick Apathy

Volkerball posted:

It was kind of a silly line in the sand to draw anyways. Chemical weapons are awful, but with the number of non-combatants being killed in Syria, it's ridiculous to say that we are OK with everything going on right now, but no chemical weapons. Sure the U.S. condemned the regime for what it was already doing, but how are chemical weapons a step up from that? I don't think that this is going to be the last straw and lead to anything substantial. Probably just a harshly worded speech.

Edit: Watch Obama start a loving war.

...start a war?

But I think you're right (about BZ). As others have pointed out, the "red line" was mainly directed against a large-scale chemical weapons attack like the kind seen at Halabja, where a mixture of really extremely deadly chemicals quickly and indiscriminately killed thousands of people in mere hours. There's a reason why the nations around the world tolerate other nations resolving their internal disputes with bomb and bullets, while not tolerating things like sarin, tabun and VX.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 01:56

Chronojam: Feb 20, 2006; This is me on vacation in Amsterdam
Never be afraid of being yourself!

Omi-Polari posted:

...start a war?

Allusion to a prophetic SA quote

# ? Jan 16, 2013 02:11

BrutalistMcDonalds: Oct 4, 2012; Lipstick Apathy

Chronojam posted:

Allusion to a prophetic SA quote

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Okay.

To add some value:

quote:

The United States on Tuesday poured cold water on a media report that chemical weapons had been used in the Syrian conflict, but reiterated that if Syrian President Bashar al Assad's government did resort to these weapons, it would be held to account.

"The reporting we have seen from media sources regarding alleged chemical weapons incidents in Syria has not been consistent with what we believe to be true about the Syrian chemical weapons program," White House National Security Council spokesman Tommy Vietor said in a statement.

http://news.yahoo.com/u-plays-down-media-report-chemical-weapons-used-002047892.html

# ? Jan 16, 2013 03:10

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

Is there any more info on that American in Syria?

# ? Jan 16, 2013 05:13

sum: Nov 15, 2010

Pieter posted:

"When Saddam was found by the 4th Infantry Division, he was hiding only a few miles from his hometown in the town of ad-Dawr." (South of Tikrit).

If Assad ever needed to flee Damascus (which I doubt will happen soon if at all) I'd bet money he'd head to the coast, where Alawites live in greatest concentration and where the rebels are at their absolute weakest.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 05:29

Kaal: May 22, 2002; through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Omi-Polari posted:

Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhh. Okay.

To add some value:

http://news.yahoo.com/u-plays-down-media-report-chemical-weapons-used-002047892.html

I remain dubious about that report of chemical weapons usage. So far the YouTube evidence that has been made available does not support the use of a nerve agent, and the use of a hallucinogenic incapacitant like BZ seems fairly unlikely as well*. Given the symptoms and reports, I believe that the victims were exposed to ~~concentrated amounts of CS (tear gas) or even~~ CR gas (militarized tear gas that is much more powerful), and that the significant symptoms combined with paranoia to produce psychosomatic reactions in some victims.

Wired has a good brief on the issue as well: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/01/syria-agent-bz/
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/12/did-syria-just-use-nerve-gas/

An independent review back in December suggested that the likely culprit was a weaponized industrial chemical such as chlorine, phosgene, or cyanogen chloride: http://www.osen-hunter.com/images/osenpdf/pdfs2012/f-l%2012-028%20december%2024.pdf

*Specifically, BZ has many traits that conflict with the victim and doctor statements, and it has signifying traits that should have been reported but weren't: It has a significant delayed effect, it is odorless, and it does not cause apparent shortness of breath. All of which conflict with the primary symptoms that were reported. Conversely, it causes hallucinations and automatic behavior such as disrobing and grasping motions that were not evident in the videos nor mentioned in previous reports. And very significantly, there's no evidence that Syria has ever stockpiled BZ. I'm at a loss as to how someone would settle on BZ as the likely agent, given those counter-indications. However, BZ is reportedly a highly persistent material, so it should be possible to prove or disprove the theory by testing victims' clothing and the area where they were exposed.

Kaal fucked around with this message at 07:41 on Jan 16, 2013

# ? Jan 16, 2013 07:03

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Charliegrs posted:

Is there any more info on that American in Syria?

Nope, I asked Matthew Van Dyke as well, he doesn't know who he is, said he's probably just a war tourist.

The Dept. of Homeland Security has been to reveal the list of words they use to monitor social media, which seems to confirm they must be regular readers of my blog and Twitter feed.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 08:20

Kaal: May 22, 2002; through thousands of posts in D&D over a decade, I now believe I know what I'm talking about. if I post forcefully and confidently, I can convince others that is true. no one sees through my facade.

Brown Moses posted:

Nope, I asked Matthew Van Dyke as well, he doesn't know who he is, said he's probably just a war tourist.

The Dept. of Homeland Security has been to reveal the list of words they use to monitor social media, which seems to confirm they must be regular readers of my blog and Twitter feed.

Good grief, with a list like that it's a wonder what website they aren't looking at.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 08:24

LimburgLimbo: Feb 10, 2008

Brown Moses posted:

Nope, I asked Matthew Van Dyke as well, he doesn't know who he is, said he's probably just a war tourist.

The Dept. of Homeland Security has been to reveal the list of words they use to monitor social media, which seems to confirm they must be regular readers of my blog and Twitter feed.

This is pretty old news, note that the Forbes article is just a retread of a Daily Mail article from May of last year.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 08:58

Svartvit: Jun 18, 2005; al-Qabila samaa Bahth

i poo poo trains posted:

If Assad ever needed to flee Damascus (which I doubt will happen soon if at all) I'd bet money he'd head to the coast, where Alawites live in greatest concentration and where the rebels are at their absolute weakest.

Qardaha *is* a coastal town. Although I think it's more likely that Bashar would not go west, but rather get on a plane and fly directly from Damascus to Iran in exile. Unlike Saddam and Gaddafi, Bashar isn't completely isolated and he still have get-out-of-jail cards to play.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 14:53

mediadave: Sep 8, 2011

Still lots of speculation on who was responsible for the blasts at Aleppo university yesterday - given the size of the blasts they were substantial explosives, certainly not homemade rockets (brown Moses has gone into all this on his blog) and so probably a presumably accidental attack by Syrian Air Force jet. No hard proof of that though however.

Interestingly though Martin chulov, the guardian journalist in rebel held Aleppo, is reporting a lot of speculation - amongst rebels - that it was Jabhat al Nursa firing artillery/ heavy rockets from outside the city. (Via the guardian liveblog). That seems very possible given the videos we've seen.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 16:15

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

mediadave posted:

Still lots of speculation on who was responsible for the blasts at Aleppo university yesterday - given the size of the blasts they were substantial explosives, certainly not homemade rockets (brown Moses has gone into all this on his blog) and so probably a presumably accidental attack by Syrian Air Force jet. No hard proof of that though however.

Interestingly though Martin chulov, the guardian journalist in rebel held Aleppo, is reporting a lot of speculation - amongst rebels - that it was Jabhat al Nursa firing artillery/ heavy rockets from outside the city. (Via the guardian liveblog). That seems very possible given the videos we've seen.

I'm going to look into the claims it was a jet, it seems rather unlikely a jet flying at high altitude would hit two target 100m apart in a 30s to 2 minute period with unguided bombs.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 20:37

neamp: Jun 24, 2003

If it was a jet it must have looped back to drop the second bomb, that is for certain. Bombs would have to be released within a second to hit that close together otherwise.
Eyewitnesses supposedly all claim to have seen or heard a jet too and it firing "missiles" (which I think actually refers to the countermeasures fired during the bombing dive, seen that called "missiles" by commentators and twitter users on other Syria videos before).
The only alternative is a scud missile or the like, isn't it? The explosions certainly seem to big for mortar fire.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 21:51

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

neamp posted:

If it was a jet it must have looped back to drop the second bomb, that is for certain. Bombs would have to be released within a second to hit that close together otherwise.
Eyewitnesses supposedly all claim to have seen or heard a jet too and it firing "missiles" (which I think actually refers to the countermeasures fired during the bombing dive, seen that called "missiles" by commentators and twitter users on other Syria videos before).
The only alternative is a scud missile or the like, isn't it? The explosions certainly seem to big for mortar fire.

I've just had a lengthy talk with a number of people on this, seems eyewitnesses are claiming the jet made two runs, firing a missile each time. It seems people in Aleppo agree it was a jet, but like with so many other things it's hard to be sure.

I've just put together a post about Yugoslavian rocket launchers being smuggled into Syria, if that's your thing.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 22:24

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Brown Moses posted:

I've just put together a post about Yugoslavian rocket launchers being smuggled into Syria, if that's your thing.

FWIW Iraqi army was (is no more?) one of the users of M79 Osa. One possible origin.

# ? Jan 16, 2013 22:55

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

Brown Moses posted:

I'm going to look into the claims it was a jet, it seems rather unlikely a jet flying at high altitude would hit two target 100m apart in a 30s to 2 minute period with unguided bombs.

The weird thing is, several reports I've read say the University lies in a government controlled sector of Aleppo. I would not rule out the Syrian Air Force bombing the university anyway, or possibly even by mistake, but it seems a bit odd.

Here's one BBC report that mentions the university as being in a government controlled sector of Aleppo.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21029034

# ? Jan 17, 2013 00:59

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

New Division posted:

The weird thing is, several reports I've read say the University lies in a government controlled sector of Aleppo. I would not rule out the Syrian Air Force bombing the university anyway, or possibly even by mistake, but it seems a bit odd.

Here's one BBC report that mentions the university as being in a government controlled sector of Aleppo.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21029034

Theres been speculation that some of the car bombs that went off in heavily secure areas of Damascus (like the intelligence headquarters) were actually planted by the regime in order to paint the rebels as terrorists to the international community. Theres never been proof of this obviously. But if they were willing to do that I dont see why they wouldnt bomb a university in a regime controlled area.

# ? Jan 17, 2013 01:55

mediadave: Sep 8, 2011

Charliegrs posted:

Theres been speculation that some of the car bombs that went off in heavily secure areas of Damascus (like the intelligence headquarters) were actually planted by the regime in order to paint the rebels as terrorists to the international community. Theres never been proof of this obviously. But if they were willing to do that I dont see why they wouldnt bomb a university in a regime controlled area.

I can believe that the Syrian gov might carry out a false flag attack - but an aerial bombing obviously doesn't work as that as only the government has jets. And if they wanted to intimidate the student body, they could have just gone the tried and tested route of sealing off the campus with the army and sending the Shabiha in. If it was an aerial attack it must have been a mistake.

I don't suppose it'll have much effect on the ground. Unless video comes out of the actual attack both sides will claim their stories as true, the international media have (for good reasons obviously) very much hedged, and in a couple of weeks it'll just be remembered as another bloddy incident in a terrible civil war.

# ? Jan 17, 2013 02:21

Best Friends: Nov 4, 2011

It could have just been a huge communication error, or a huge series of little communication errors.

# ? Jan 17, 2013 03:03

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

Here is a story that I'm not seeing much reputable coverage on; just this thing from Fox. It tells the story of some lady converting from Chistianity to Islam and being sent to "15 years in prison".

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/01/16/egyptian-court-sentences-entire-family-to-15-years-for-converting-to/#ixzz2IAgic2Lz

Can anyone provide more context on that? If that's the straight story that is kind of alarming.

Edit: http://translate.google.com/transla...1383761&act=url from a post in Reddit. Essentially the charge was forgery not some kind of illicit conversion.

Torpor fucked around with this message at 03:10 on Jan 17, 2013

# ? Jan 17, 2013 03:08

THE BOMBINATRIX: Jul 26, 2002; by Lowtax

Torpor posted:

Here is a story that I'm not seeing much reputable coverage on; just this thing from Fox. It tells the story of some lady converting from Chistianity to Islam and being sent to "15 years in prison".

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2013/01/16/egyptian-court-sentences-entire-family-to-15-years-for-converting-to/#ixzz2IAgic2Lz

Can anyone provide more context on that? If that's the straight story that is kind of alarming.

Edit: http://translate.google.com/transla...1383761&act=url from a post in Reddit. Essentially the charge was forgery not some kind of illicit conversion.

1. You're not seeing much coverage of this other than Fox News.

2. It's from Fox News.

Do you see a pattern?

# ? Jan 17, 2013 03:11

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

Alex DeLarge posted:

1. You're not seeing much coverage of this other than Fox News.

2. It's from Fox News.

Do you see a pattern?

Normally that's a pretty good litmus test, but there isn't much English coverage of random Egyptian legal stuff anywhere ever.

Torpor fucked around with this message at 03:20 on Jan 17, 2013

# ? Jan 17, 2013 03:12

Chronojam: Feb 20, 2006; This is me on vacation in Amsterdam
Never be afraid of being yourself!

Torpor posted:

Normally that's a pretty good litmus test, but there isn't much English coverage of random Egyptian legal stuff anywhere ever.

Al Jazeera, although Foxnews also reports that's a terrorist news network.

# ? Jan 17, 2013 05:00

Svartvit: Jun 18, 2005; al-Qabila samaa Bahth

Torpor posted:

Normally that's a pretty good litmus test, but there isn't much English coverage of random Egyptian legal stuff anywhere ever.

Check al-Ahram or Egypt Independent or some other credible source. Assume the story is made up if you can't find it there. That Fox News article is like a pastiche of what a faked story looks like, with not only all "sources" being PR dudes from fantasy institutions tasked with spreading the gospels, the very author of the article is not actually a Fox writer but a representative of one of the classic fantasy institutions ("protecting freedom and fighting terrorism").

# ? Jan 17, 2013 06:07

SixFigureSandwich: Oct 30, 2004; Exciting Lemon

poo poo is going down in Algeria. Basically it seems that some kind of possible Al-Qaeda affiliated group took a bunch of people hostage at a gas complex, in order to force France out of Mali, or something. Algeria attacked with one or more helicopters, and it seems that there have been a lot of casualties, although numbers vary:

quote:

There is a lot of contradictory and unverified information coming out of Algeria. Here is a roundup:

� The British Foreign Office has confirmed that an Algerian military operation is under way at the In Amenas gas plant.

� A local source has told Reuters that six foreign hostages and eight rebels were killed in the Algerian strike on the gas complex.

� Mauritania�s ANI news agency has said that 34 (or 35) hostages and 15 (or 14) kidnappers were killed in the strike. It reports that the spokesman for the kidnappers says they will kill the remaining hostages if the army approaches. According to ANI, seven foreign hostages are still alive: three Belgians, two Americans, one Japanese and one Briton. ANI is also reporting that the leader of the hostage-takers, Abu al-Baraa, has been killed by the Algerian attack. We are unable to verify ANI�s claims.

� A local source has told Reuters that 180 Algerian hostages have escaped.

� An Algerian security source earlier said 25 foreign hostages had escaped the besieged compound, including two Japanese. Thirty Algerians were earlier reported to have escaped.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/jan/17/algerian-islamists-hostages-standoff-live

# ? Jan 17, 2013 16:17

mitztronic: Jun 17, 2005; mixcloud.com/mitztronic

Here is a video taken in Syria*, 10-20 metes away from tanks that are actively shooting at the buildings near/that the videographer is in.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=91e_1358349215

*According to video, it's taken from: Darayya, Rif-Dimashq Governorate, Syria

# ? Jan 17, 2013 18:48

Invalido: Dec 28, 2005; BICHAELING

mitztronic posted:

Here is a video taken in Syria*, 10-20 metes away from tanks that are actively shooting at the buildings near/that the videographer is in.

http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=91e_1358349215

*According to video, it's taken from: Darayya, Rif-Dimashq Governorate, Syria

Maximum elevation aside the cameraman sure seemed calm, considering.

# ? Jan 17, 2013 19:33

Charlz Guybon: Nov 16, 2010

Looks like the Obama administration wants the Turks and Jordanians to go in and seize Syria's chemical weapons.
http://openchannel.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/01/17/16549397-us-asks-turkey-jordan-to-secure-chem-weapons-if-syria-crisis-worsens?lite

quote:

By R. Jeffrey Smith
The Center for Public Integrity

The Obama administration has quietly arranged for thousands of chemical protective suits and related items to be sent to Jordan and Turkey and is pressing the military forces there to take principal responsibility for safeguarding Syrian chemical weapons sites if the country�s lethal nerve agents suddenly become vulnerable to theft and misuse, Western and Middle Eastern officials say.

As part of their preparations for such an event, Western governments have started training the Jordanians and Turks to use the chemical gear and detection equipment, so they have the capability to protect the Syrian nerve agent depots if needed � at least for a short time, U.S. and Western officials say.

Washington has decided moreover that the best course of action in the aftermath of Syrian President Bashar Assad�s fall would be to get the nerve agents out of the country as quickly as possible, and so it has begun discussions not only with Jordan and Turkey, but also with Iraq and Russia in an effort to chart the potential withdrawal of the arsenal and its destruction elsewhere.

Using allied forces from Syria�s periphery as the most likely �first-responders� to a weapons-of-mass-destruction emergency is regarded in Washington as a way to avoid putting substantial U.S. troops into the region if the special Syrian military forces now safeguarding the weapons leave their posts. A Syrian withdrawal might otherwise render the weapons vulnerable to capture and use by Hezbollah or other anti-U.S. or anti-Israeli militant groups, U.S. officials fear.

This article is based on conversations about international planning for the disposition of the Syrian stockpile with a half dozen U.S. and foreign officials who have direct knowledge of the matter but declined to be named due to the political and security sensitivities surrounding their work.

They said the Western planning, while not yet complete, is further along than officials have publicly disclosed.

But so far, the Turkish and Jordanian governments have not promised to take up the full role that Washington has sought to give them, U.S. and foreign officials said.

Asked for comment, Jordanian embassy spokeswoman, Dana Zureikat Daoud, said the training under way is �not mission-oriented,� meaning that Jordan does not have a fixed responsibility. But she added that the government is indeed concerned about the possibility of Syrian chemical armaments falling into extremist hands. �Our contingency plans � are discussed and elaborated with like-minded, concerned countries,� she said.

A spokesman at the Turkish Embassy declined comment. But James F. Jeffrey, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey from 2008-2010, said that although Ankara is eager for the United States to play a larger role in resolving the Syrian crisis, the Turks are �usually reluctant to be our foot-soldiers.� He added: �When Americans come up with a plan to use country x�s soldiers, the plan is often self-fulfilling inside the Beltway,� but sometimes runs into trouble when it is broached in foreign capitals.

The prospect of lethal nerve agents at any Syrian sites suddenly becoming unprotected is one of many alarming developments that have been war-gamed at the Pentagon over the past year, as the conflict there deepens and president Assad�s grip over his deadly arsenal comes into greater question, U.S. officials say.

Private messages to Syrian commanders
Worries about the fate of the chemicals � in a stockpile estimated at 350 to 400 metric tons -- have become so great that Washington and its allies have recently passed messages to some of the Syrian commanders that oversee their security, offering safety and a continued role under a new government if the commanders act responsibly, two knowledgeable officials said on condition they not be named.

It is unclear what the results of that effort have been. But similar messages, urging restraint and good behavior in handling the chemicals, have also been passed in recent weeks to rebel forces inside the country, according to a Western official.

One of Washington�s concerns has been that Assad might order the chemicals used against his own citizens, a fear that spiked late last year when chemicals at one base were seen being loaded into artillery shells and bombs. Western and Russian officials issued stiff warnings, and those concerns abated somewhat, although Foreign Policy magazine reported Jan. 15 that some evidence exists that Syria used a generally nonlethal incapacitating gas against rebels in Homs last month.

�We found no credible evidence to corroborate or to confirm that chemical weapons were used� in that incident, State Department spokeswoman Victoria Nuland said on Tuesday.

The principal U.S. concern in a post-Assad period, Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta said at a press briefing on Jan. 10, is �how do we secure the CBW (chemical and biological weapons) sites?...And that is a discussion that we are having, not only with the Israelis, but with other countries in the region, to try to look at � what steps need to be taken in order to make sure that these sites are secured.�

�We�re not working on options that involve (U.S.) boots on the ground,� Panetta said.

At one extreme, officials said, special forces now in the region might have to intervene on short notice if it appears that weapons at one of the sites are about to fall into the wrong hands or to be employed on a large scale. They would be tasked with swiftly neutralizing both the agent and any hostile forces present and likely stay on the ground only for a few hours.

The Obama administration�s preference is to have other nations� forces undertake such an intervention, and so the United States and Britain have been conducting joint planning and training operations with Jordanian and Turkish commandos for more than a year, to prepare for their possible emergency insertion into Syria, according to U.S. and foreign officials familiar with the plans.

The protective suits, along with detection equipment and decontamination gear, began arriving in the late fall amid concern that the Syrian government might be considering using the weapons to halt rebel advances. Syria�s arsenal � which was developed for a potential conflict with Israel -- includes mustard gas, which burns and blisters the skin and lungs, More problematically, it also includes sarin and VX, liquids that interfere with the nervous system and produce swift death by paralysis after minute, drop-size exposures, U.S. officials say.

Syria devised its nerve weapons as binary agents, in which two less toxic chemicals are routinely stored in large, separated canisters and then loaded into separate compartments inside a bomb. For example, sarin uses a formulation of alcohol, plus another chemical. The agents combine to pose their most lethal threat only when launched or during flight, making them relatively easy to handle or transport before then � by the Syrian military or by terrorists and militant groups.

But the separation of the basic components also opens the door to at least a partial elimination of the threat onsite, since the alcohol used in sarin could simply be drained onto the ground and allowed to evaporate.

Jordan and Turkey initially agreed to undertake Western training in dealing with chemical weapons because they might have to deal with panicked refugees and victims if Assad�s forces use such arms against the rebels; some risk also exists in that circumstance of clouds of dangerous gas wafting onto their own territory from Syrian cities near their border. Even medical workers would be at grave risk in dealing with those who became contaminated; as a result, they are being trained now by Western powers, according to foreign officials.

�Their primary concern is a spillover of these things into their territory,� one U.S. official said. The salience of this worry was demonstrated when a Syrian mortar round crashed into a Turkish field near a refugee camp on Jan. 14. As Daoud, the Jordanian spokeswoman, said, �Naturally, we will do everything that needs to be done to defend our people and our borders.�

Seeking Assad exit strategy
Partly because of worries about the stockpile�s security, Washington and its allies still hope that Assad might be persuaded to leave in exchange for a guarantee of his personal security elsewhere. In such a negotiated transition, Western powers would seek to keep the existing Syrian military units responsible for safeguarding the chemical weapons sites in place, officials said.

�The people in Assad�s regime responsible for security at the chemical sites are among the very best soldiers,� a U.S. official said. �If one could keep those forces in place � that would be the best and probably the cheapest and most efficient outcome.�

But Assad, in a defiant address on Jan. 6, said he had no intention of stepping aside or negotiating with the rebels engaged in a bitter struggle for national control that so far has claimed at least 60,000 lives.

�We�re engaged in planning to develop options against alternative futures � (including) collaboration or cooperation, permissiveness, non-permissive, hostile, all of which would have different requirements,� Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Gen. Martin Dempsey said at the Jan. 10 briefing.

�The options are not good in any scenario,� said another senior official, adding that Washington is as worried about the chemicals falling into the hands of rebel forces that may seize power, either locally or nationally, as it is about their misuse by terrorists or by rogue Syrian military units and commanders. At least one of the major Syrian rebel groups, Jabhat al-Nasra, has been designated by the United States as a terrorist organization.

Also, U.S. intelligence agencies have warned policymakers that once Assad is gone, the country�s turmoil will increase, with rival groups potentially seeking to brandish possession of the chemical weapons as symbols of their power. Officials said that as a result, they have pressed the Syrian National Coalition, a rebel group recognized by Western countries, to appoint a coordinator now for all chemical weapons-related policymaking and negotiations.

Simply blowing up the chemicals inside Syria with bombs or other weapons is not an option, as Panetta made clear in a briefing for reporters during a December visit to Turkey: He said the plumes from such explosions would cause �exactly the kind of damage� that would result from the weapons� deliberate use.

Incinerating the chemicals inside Syria would be logistically challenging and pose high security risks, since Western countries have only a few portable destruction kits for chemical weapons, developed primarily to deal with single, leaking shells, not large stocks.

As a result, U.S. officials said they would likely seek to transport the chemicals out of Syria as quickly as possible once a new government can be formed, preferably under the supervision of the United Nations-affiliated Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, with the new government�s formal approval.

�We maintain regular communication with States Parties as well as the United Nations on developments in Syria and continue our efforts to prepare for various scenarios which could potentially involve the OPCW in that situation,� said OPCW spokesman Michael Luhan.

Under one scenario now under discussion between Washington and its allies, the chemicals would be moved to secure military bases in Jordan, Turkey or Iraq, where the United States and others would erect chemical incinerators over a six- to 12-month period that could destroy the bulk agent in a year or so after that. Using similar incinerators to destroy a small stockpile of chemical weapons in Albania more than five years ago cost $48 million.

But even this task would be logistically awkward, not to mention politically controversial in those states. Undertaking it would first require further consolidation of the stocks inside Syria and then their transport outside the country in hundreds of truckloads.

Russia said to offer help
Another option, which officials said has tentatively been explored with senior Russian officials, is to truck the chemical agents to the Syrian port of Tartus, where the Russian Navy keeps a small presence, so that the arsenal could be placed on a ship for transport to Russia, where multiple chemical weapons destruction plants have been constructed with Western help.

By the accounts of several officials, Russia has expressed some desire to help. And Western officials emphasized that in their view, the country has a special responsibility to do so, because of reports that the head of its chemical weapons program helped Syria obtain key VX components in the early 1990s.

No final policy choice has been made about these options, senior officials said. And bringing a large weapons stockpile into Turkey or Russia � which are signatories of an international treaty barring use or possession of chemical arms � might require a waiver of the treaty�s rules against importing even the components of such weapons.

Some consolidation of the Syrian arsenal has already occurred on Assad�s orders, and the bulk of it is now at fewer than a dozen sites, according to a U.S. official familiar with intelligence estimates.

But U.S. military planners are unsure precisely how many sites might hold deadly chemicals at the point that a foreign intervention would be necessary or feasible. If Assad disperses the arsenal beforehand to the 40 or so military bases with aircraft or missiles that can drop or launch the weapons, as many as 75,000 foreign troops could be needed to contain the threat (several thousand troops at each base, according to this worst-case estimate). A smaller number would be needed if the intervention preceded such a dispersal.

The shipment of protective gear to Syria�s periphery from U.S. and British stockpiles was an acknowledgement of the enormity of the problem, several officials said. They described thousands of pieces of chemical-protection gear -- from masks and suits to detectors and decontamination kits -- being pre-positioned in Jordan alone.

Asked for comment, Joint Chiefs of Staff spokesman Scott McIlnay responded that �we have always said that contingency planning is the responsible thing to do, and we are actively consulting with friends, allies and the opposition. But I am not going to get into the specifics of our contingency plans.� Pentagon spokesman Bryan Whitman said he could only say that �we are working with our partners in the region and the broader international community to monitor the situation and discussing contingencies.�

The Center for Public Integrity is a nonprofit independent investigative news outlet. To read more of its stories on this topic go to publicintegrity.org

# ? Jan 17, 2013 20:18

cochise: Sep 11, 2011

John Dough posted:

poo poo is going down in Algeria. Basically it seems that some kind of possible Al-Qaeda affiliated group took a bunch of people hostage at a gas complex, in order to force France out of Mali, or something. Algeria attacked with one or more helicopters, and it seems that there have been a lot of casualties, although numbers vary:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/middle-east-live/2013/jan/17/algerian-islamists-hostages-standoff-live

Holy poo poo. What a mess.

# ? Jan 17, 2013 22:24

mediadave: Sep 8, 2011

A fairly worrying report from Rebel held Northern Syria:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/17/syria-crisis-alqaida-fighters-true-colours

quote:

they [al-Nusra] began to reveal themselves," said a senior rebel commander in Aleppo. "The situation is now very clear. They don't want what we want."

Over the past six weeks a once co-operative arrangement between Aleppo's regular Free Syrian Army units and al-Nusra has become one of barely disguised distrust.

A week of interviews with rebel groups in north Syria has revealed a schism developing between the jihadists and residents, which some rebel leaders predict will eventually spark a confrontation between the jihadists and the conservative communities that agreed to host them.

Some already talk of an Iraq-style "awakening" � a time in late-2006 as when communities in the Sunni heartland cities of Fallujah and Ramadi turned on al-Qaida groups in their midst that had tried to impose sharia law and enforce their will through the gun barrel.

"We'll fight them on day two after Assad falls," a commander said. "Until then we will no longer work with them."

quote:

North of Aleppo, in the small forsaken hamlet of Dabek, al-Nusra, fighters had recently paid a visit. Their goal had been to damage a grave that was, in their eyes, too pretentious for Islamic traditions, which specify that all graves, no matter who is buried in them, must be modest.

"They damaged some of the rocks around the grave and they did the same in Azaz [a nearby town]," said the local sheikh. "They are starting to impose themselves and their values."

# ? Jan 18, 2013 00:13

Rhesus Pieces: Jun 27, 2005

mediadave posted:

A fairly worrying report from Rebel held Northern Syria:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jan/17/syria-crisis-alqaida-fighters-true-colours

Sounds close to what was going on in Mali/Azawad before the French got involved.

# ? Jan 18, 2013 00:24

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# ? May 25, 2024 18:52

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

At this point the whole country is hosed. Unless there's a diplomatic miracle in the offing the most likely scenario is months, if not years, of fighting until the government collapses, followed by months, if not years, of fighting between different groups in the country for overall control. Like I said many months ago, Syria is hosed.

# ? Jan 18, 2013 00:27

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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