Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

«‹›3125 »

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Very interesting piece by Damien Spleeters, who has been tracking the use of Belgian arms in various conflicts. Here he looks at the FN FALs seen in Syria, and uses the serial numbers on them to track the original purchasers of the weapon back to the UAE, proving they aren't looted from government stockpiles, but provided from abroad.

And here's the second part of Angry Arab's interview with Aron Lund on Syria that's worth a read.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 12:47 on Mar 19, 2013

# ? Mar 19, 2013 12:43

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 18, 2024 17:18

DesperateDan: Dec 10, 2005; Where's my cow?

Is that my cow?

No it isn't, but it still tramples my bloody lavender.

Regime claims rebel scud with chemical weapon payload used in Khan al-Assal causing 15 deaths, 83 wounded, rebels say "nuh uh it was the regime". Regime says Turkey and Qatar hold "legal, moral and political responsibility".

Hoping its another non-event.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21841217

# ? Mar 19, 2013 14:25

Mokotow: Apr 16, 2012

Darayya is very interesting to watch, with both sides following each other on YouTube. The Russian NewsANNA team is reporting from Darayya for a few months now, and it seems the rebels know this, as graffiti in russian popped up recently, as seen in this video. It's mostly "death to Russia" kind of stuff. The problem here is that NewsANNA is anything but reputable, as it's Abkhazian (doesn't mean they don't put out some amazing footage; their APC/tank cams are truly fascinating), and it wouldn't be strange if they were the ones who put the signs there in the first place. On the other hand, Russians have had a long presence in Syria, and not only due to military contacts - it wasn't unusual to ba chatted up in downtown Damascus in Polish, Russian or any other language, as it's been a trade hub since... well, forever.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 14:33

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Tab8715 posted:

How much longer can the war in theory go on for? Isn't Aleppo essentially a bunch of rubble at this stage?

Until Iran and Russia decide to cut their losses and stop giving Assad credit and bullets.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 14:34

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

DesperateDan posted:

Regime claims rebel scud with chemical weapon payload used in Khan al-Assal causing 15 deaths, 83 wounded, rebels say "nuh uh it was the regime". Regime says Turkey and Qatar hold "legal, moral and political responsibility".

Hoping its another non-event.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21841217

There's reports of the smell of chlorine gas from various victims. I get the feeling it could be something hit on the ground more than what the payload of the rocket was. I find it incredibly unlikely the opposition has access to Scuds with chemical warheads as well.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 14:43

Nenonen: Oct 22, 2009; Mulla on aina kolkyt donaa taskussa

Happy 10th anniversary of Operation Iraqi Freedom! I wonder how it has been celebrated in...

quote:

At least 48 people have been killed in a series of car and suicide bombings mainly in Shia areas in and around Iraq's capital, Baghdad, officials say.

Oh.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 14:49

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Brown Moses posted:

There's reports of the smell of chlorine gas from various victims. I get the feeling it could be something hit on the ground more than what the payload of the rocket was. I find it incredibly unlikely the opposition has access to Scuds with chemical warheads as well.

Is it possible some local/regional commander with either actual or illegitimate but ability/access on the Syrian Government side did this? Variants of the Russian nuclear torpedoes and tactical missiles that could have been launch on a whim during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

I would think that the opposition having access is unlikely, but its possible someone found a treasure trove and was either ignorant or a sperg after finding it. However that would require both the agents mixed and placed on a warheard and its pretty hard to see something like that not moved into more secure areas.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 15:44

Muscle Tracer: Feb 23, 2007; Medals only weigh one down.

I remember we had a discussion about how difficult it would be for untrained opposition forces to actually use artillery. Would it even be possible for untrained opposition forces to find, activate, aim, and deploy a chemical weapon?

# ? Mar 19, 2013 16:13

Blue Footed Booby: Oct 4, 2006; got those happy feet

Muscle Tracer posted:

I remember we had a discussion about how difficult it would be for untrained opposition forces to actually use artillery. Would it even be possible for untrained opposition forces to find, activate, aim, and deploy a chemical weapon?

I think that depends entirely on how you define "aim," and whether the goal is to kill people or harass/demoralize people in a general area.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 16:20

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I have no idea about the source, but lol if true.

quote:

(AIN) -The Egyptian Ambassador to Iraq, Shareef Shaheen, announced that "The Iraqi government is discussing depositing $ 4 billion at the Egyptian Central Bank to support the Egyptian economy."

Shaheen said in a statement on Monday "The discussion of this topic is underway and Egypt is ready to cooperate with Iraq in all fields, hoping the Egyptian-Iraqi relations to witness progress in the period ahead."

"The issue of granting visas for the Iraqis wishing to visit Egypt should be given attention by the Egyptian officials as it is important issue and affects the development of the bilateral relations between both countries," he added. /End/

http://www.alliraqnews.com/en/index...nt&view=article

# ? Mar 19, 2013 16:27

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Here's my theory on the chemical attack in Syria wot I posted on Twitter today:

quote:

It's really difficult to be sure, but I suspect it might be a chemical leak as a result of a rocket attack, rather than a rocket with a chemical warhead, although it's extremely difficult to be certain.

One thing I've found very interesting is the reports from multiple victims of the smell of chlorine. If chlorine gas was used the amount needed to inflict that number of casualities would likely be very high. In Iraq there were a number of chlorine bombs used, and they were vehicles loaded with large amounts of chlorine, some inflicting the same number and type of casualties we've seen today:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chlorine_bombings_in_Iraq

The thing is, there's no way the DIY rockets used by the opposition could deliver that volume of gas, and the government has claimed the missile or rocket used was fired from 30km away, which seems well beyond the rebels DIY rocket making capabilities.

So that leaves the theory it was a large rocket or missile captured by the opposition, but the question is then, which weapon in the Syrian army's inventory uses chlorine based warheads? I'm pretty certain that none would, so IF it was chlorine poisoning I get the impression it's more likely something that was hit on the ground leaking gas than a chlorine warhead. Also, if it was a large missile or rocket I'd expect there would be plenty of debris for State media to show off. What would also be useful is knowing the exact location of the attack, and footage from the scene of the attack.

It should also be noted that if this does turn out to be a large missile used by the Syrian opposition than it's a significant escalation in their capabilities, and the Syrian government has lost control of some of it's chemical weapons.

But I'll stress again it's extremely difficult, if not impossible, to be certain with the scant information available.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 17:24

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Brown Moses posted:

Here's my theory on the chemical attack in Syria wot I posted on Twitter today:

Any video from the area yet?

# ? Mar 19, 2013 17:28

Vincent Van Goatse: Nov 8, 2006; Enjoy every sandwich.; Smellrose

Sensible analysis, Brown Moses, although there's also the possibility that a missile/rocket/whatever hit something nasty like a chemical storage tank or warehouse full of toxic poo poo and the initial facts got lip radioed into a chemical strike. That's assuming anything happened as described, of course.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 17:28

Miruvor: Jan 19, 2007; Pillbug

Off the Al-Jazeera feed.. Not chemical weapons:

quote:

Ziad Haddad, a medic in Aleppo, told Al Jazeera several patients arrived in the emergency room earlier this morning with cases of suffocation and constricted pupils.
"Several of them died of respiratory inhibition," he said.

Haddad believes the victims were exposed to organic pesticides and not chemical weapons, like Sarin and VX nerve agents.

"Victims spoke of pungent smell. Chemical weapons are usually odourless."

�Moreover , the number of deaths is small compared to those who would have died had chemical weapons been used." He estimates that 25 people have been killed in the attack in Khan al-Assal.

Haddad said the casualties included Syrian regime soldiers and pro- Assad armed men from the Zaarour family.

Earlier, Sana state news agency on Tuesday accused rebels of launching "a rocket [that] contains chemical materials" on Khan al-Assal.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 17:34

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

gfanikf posted:

Any video from the area yet?

Nothing yet, which makes me suspicious, surely SANA would have something from the scene?

# ? Mar 19, 2013 17:36

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

Brown Moses posted:

Nothing yet, which makes me suspicious, surely SANA would have something from the scene?

Same, I can't help but have a thought in the back of my head that the Syrian Government is trying to create a pretext (not a very good one mind you) for "defensive/retaliatory use." Granted it's not like that would help prevent them from getting the living poo poo shalacked out of them. Then again judging by Russia's acceptance of their claim, perhaps they could effective deadlock a response, but I kind of doubt that.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 17:49

Baronjutter: Dec 31, 2007; "Tiny Trains"

Chemical materials?? Holy poo poo! What next, using chemicals to propel rockets? Chemicals to fire bullets? Chemicals man...

# ? Mar 19, 2013 17:57

Deteriorata: Feb 6, 2005

Brown Moses posted:

Here's my theory on the chemical attack in Syria wot I posted on Twitter today:

The fuming red nitric acid used as an oxidizer in most of those rockets will release NO₂ on exposure to something metallic, which has a distinctly acrid, chorine-ish odor. It's also deep red-brown, but that would be less obvious once it's dispersed a bit.

So the odor being the result of some sort of rocket accident is plausible.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 18:19

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Why was Moaz Khatib replaced?

edit: Nevermind, I guess Hitto is in a different position

# ? Mar 19, 2013 19:26

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Brown Moses posted:

Here's my theory on the chemical attack in Syria wot I posted on Twitter today:

Is the evidence really leading to the opposition being behind this? Because logic would dictate that wasn't the case, but Syria stopped being logical a while ago.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 20:24

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Volkerball posted:

Is the evidence really leading to the opposition being behind this? Because logic would dictate that wasn't the case, but Syria stopped being logical a while ago.

The only actual evidence is coming from the hospital, nothing from the site of the attack, so it's basically the Syrian governments word against the rebels at the moment.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 21:00

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

Xandu fucked around with this message at 21:15 on Mar 19, 2013

# ? Mar 19, 2013 21:12

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Some American guy called Carl Levin thinks a no-fly zone for Syria is a good idea

quote:

Top Democrat endorses Syria no-fly zone

Senate Armed Services Committee Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) endorsed Tuesday the idea of establishing a no-fly zone inside Syria and attacking the air defenses and air power of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Levin chaired a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee Tuesday morning during which he asked Adm. James Stavridis, the Supreme Allied Commander, Europe, if NATO was discussing attacking Assad's air defenses. Stavridis acknowledged the idea was under discussion but said there was no unified NATO position on the issue.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) then asked Stavridis if NATO is doing contingency planning for military operations inside Syria.

"We are looking at a wide range of operations, and we are prepared, if called upon, to be engaged as we were in Libya," Stavridis replied.

Stavridis said that the NATO Patriot missile batteries currently deployed in Turkey have the capability to shoot down Syrian military aircraft in a radius of 20 miles. McCain pressed Stavridis to give his personal opinion as to whether or not establishing a Patriot battery-enforced no-fly zone in northern Syria would speed the end of the conflict.

"My personal opinion is that would be helpful in breaking the deadlock and bringing down the Assad regime," Stavridis said.

After the hearing, Levin directly endorsed the idea of attacking Syrian air defenses and using the Patriot missile batteries in Turkey to establish a no-fly zone inside Syria in an interview with The Cable.

"I believe there should be the next ratcheting up of military effort and that would include going after some of Syria's air defenses," Levin said.

Regarding the establishment of a no-fly zone inside Syria, Levin said that would help both protect innocent civilians and speed the end of the conflict.

"You could protect that kind of a zone with these Patriot missiles, leaving the missiles in Turkey but having the zone inside the Syrian border," he said. "It is a way without putting boots on the ground and in a way that would be fairly cautious, that would put additional pressure on Assad and also create a zone where Syrian people who are looking for protection and safety could come without crossing the border and becoming refugees."

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) on Tuesday called for the United States to put boots on the ground in Syria to secure chemical weapons sites, in light of new allegations that chemical weapons were used in Aleppo province.

Levin said it might come to that at some point and that the U.S. military should be prepared.

"We have to have that option," he said. "If [chemical weapons] are going to run free and fall into the hands of terrorists, we have to have some option of securing those, particularly if there's going to be a disintegration in Syria."

# ? Mar 19, 2013 21:23

Strong Female: Jul 27, 2010; I don't think you've been paying attention

That's really interesting about Carl Levin; I *just* read a pretty praiseful piece on him from MoJo:

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/03/sen-carl-levin-irs-dark-money

I don't know about his foreign affairs cred, but he's pretty solid when it comes to finance things.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 22:20

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

I'm like 95% sure it was the Syrian government attacking with chemical weapons, considering they're the ones sitting on a gigantic stockpile of poison gas and their state control is disintegrating. Also this isn't the first time. They attacked with, I hope I'm spelling this right, deliriants before, chemicals meant to make you delirious.

EDIT: Carl Levin is awesome and he's my uber-liberal Senator from Michigan.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 23:07

HUGE PUBES A PLUS: Apr 30, 2005

The Honorable Senator Carl Levin D-Michigan is a very important senator as he serves on the Foreign Relations Committee and as chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS fucked around with this message at 23:15 on Mar 19, 2013

# ? Mar 19, 2013 23:12

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

I am not sure that the gas used was weaponized, although I have to admit I don't know the quality of gas Syria has stockpiled. There are tons of places to get toxic gases and nothing so far has distinctly shouted that this wasn't a jury rigged attack. Of course considering the legacy of the barrel bombs, jury rigged could go either way, so what I'd really like to find out is what was the delivery system, which will tell us a lot more about the capabilities of the attacker and eliminate or highlight some probable actors.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 23:13

Squalid: Nov 4, 2008

Sergg posted:

I'm like 95% sure it was the Syrian government attacking with chemical weapons, considering they're the ones sitting on a gigantic stockpile of poison gas and their state control is disintegrating. Also this isn't the first time. They attacked with, I hope I'm spelling this right, deliriants before, chemicals meant to make you delirious.

EDIT: Carl Levin is awesome and he's my uber-liberal Senator from Michigan.

I don't know why you're so confident when we literally have no evidence there was a chemical weapon attack. Also the deliriant attack was debunked a while ago, it never happened. That rumor is a great example of why you need to keep a critical eye on these claims, as even a cursory overview of the subject should start raising flags. The United States did attempt to develop weaponized deliriants during the cold war but they proved completely impractical and the research was scrapped, there is absolutely no reason Syria should even have any stockpiled, they're militarily worthless. What has been found is evidence of chemical exposure, and when you're blowing up huge proportions of a state's industrial infrastructure there's a good chance something nasty is going to get out.

# ? Mar 19, 2013 23:53

Warcabbit: Apr 26, 2008; Wedge Regret

Lindsey Graham wants American boots to secure those sites.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/03/lindsey-graham-ground-troops-syria-wmds/63297/

quote:

"Absolutely, you've got to get on the ground. There is no substitute for securing these weapons... I don't care what it takes. We need partners in the region.

But I'm here to say, if the choice is to send in troops to secure the weapons sites versus allowing chemical weapons to get in the hands of some of the most violent people in the world, I vote to cut this off before it becomes a problem."

# ? Mar 19, 2013 23:56

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Strong Female posted:

That's really interesting about Carl Levin; I *just* read a pretty praiseful piece on him from MoJo:

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2013/03/sen-carl-levin-irs-dark-money

I don't know about his foreign affairs cred, but he's pretty solid when it comes to finance things.

Not as solid as mine, evidently, because I've been calling for his approach word for word for about a year and a half now. I know you're reading this thread, State Department. Gimme work.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 00:09

Squalid: Nov 4, 2008

Here's a FP article debunking the deliriant myth, they require registration but it's free and you don't even have to answer a confirmation email

http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/01/25/buzz_bomb?page=0,0&wp_login_redirect=0

quote:

Now, to be clear: BZ is a real chemical incapacitant. The United States, the United Kingdom, and others stockpiled it. U.S. scientists discovered BZ in 1951, producing it as a byproduct of peaceful chemical production (though not in a pure or isolated form). Iraq did research on BZ, including importing a sample from Egypt. There is no evidence that Syria has a BZ program, which is probably why the National Security Council released a statement describing the allegations outlined in the cable as "not consistent with what we believe to be true about the Syrian chemical weapons program."
...
Not surprisingly, one finds plenty of evidence-less allegations of chemical weapons use by groups seeking to encourage foreign intervention. In July 1995, for example, the Bosnians alleged that Yugoslav forces gassed them with BZ -- at a time when the United States was still following Colin Powell's suggestion to let Bosnia burn. (A few weeks later Clinton would authorize an air campaign, Operation Deliberate Force, a decision Powell now says was the correct one.) Kosovar Albanians made similar allegations of BZ use in April 1999 during Operation Allied Force. There is not a lot of evidence for either claim and, to my knowledge, the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia has never charged any Serbs with regards to this. Perhaps it's too cynical to put allegations of chemical weapons use in the bin with bayonetting babies or dumping them out of incubators, but truth is the first casualty and all that.
...
Which brings us to the State Department cable. The United States does not have an embassy in Syria at the moment. The cable in question was sent from the U.S. consulate in Istanbul, which last I checked was in Turkey. So, who actually went to Homs to investigate these claims? According to portions of the cable reprinted by Rogin, a State Department "implementing partner" called Access Research Knowledge, using a local Syrian group called Basma, talked to three "contacts" in Syria. Stop me if you see where this is going.
...
To make it clear: These appear to be U.S.- and U.K.-funded groups that produce anti-regime propaganda. Are we really surprised that they are alleging chemical weapons use? (And don't get me started on these people diagnosing which chemicals were used based on grainy YouTube videos. Two words: Terry Schiavo.) Look, I am no seasoned intelligence professional. But perhaps this is not up to the standard set by Sherman Kent.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 00:18

Zeroisanumber: Oct 23, 2010; Nap Ghost

Warcabbit posted:

Lindsey Graham wants American boots to secure those sites.
http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/03/lindsey-graham-ground-troops-syria-wmds/63297/

gently caress. That.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 00:27

William Bear: Oct 26, 2012; "That's what they all say!"

CNN is now reporting the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee says, after a briefing, it looks like a "high probability" that Assad's forces used chemical weapons.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

William Bear fucked around with this message at 01:55 on Mar 20, 2013

# ? Mar 20, 2013 01:51

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

William Bear posted:

CNN is now reporting the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee says, after a briefing, it looks like a "high probability" that Assad's forces used chemical weapons.

http://www.cnn.com/2013/03/19/world/meast/syria-civil-war/index.html?hpt=hp_t1

Are there any other sources on this? CNN is not a place I would consider a reliable source on major items.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 02:27

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

Obama will be in the region tomorrow so we will probably hear something then.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 02:28

Marshal Prolapse: Jun 23, 2012; by Jeffrey of YOSPOS

The Entire Universe posted:

Are there any other sources on this? CNN is not a place I would consider a reliable source on major items.

Israeli security officials. FWIW

The video in the link has footage from the Syrian Press Conference and from the hospital, you can seem a number of victims being treated. Of course this is from the Syrian Government.
http://www.haaretz.com/news/middle-east/u-s-looking-into-allegations-of-chemical-weapons-use-in-syria-1.510487

Same basic story but security officials confirming it.
http://www.jpost.com/International/Israeli-sources-Chemical-weapons-were-used-in-Syria-307017

Marshal Prolapse fucked around with this message at 02:32 on Mar 20, 2013

# ? Mar 20, 2013 02:28

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

From everything I've read, the Bosnian Serbs did, in fact, use deliriants on Bosnian forces retreating from Srebrenica, and there are hundreds of witnesses that testified about it. Never heard about the Kosovar accusations and this is the first time I've heard of the alleged 'debunking' of the gas attacks earlier this year.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 02:42

Saint Celestine: Dec 17, 2008; Lay a fire within your soul and another between your hands, and let both be your weapons.
For one is faith and the other is victory and neither may ever be put out.
- Saint Sabbat, Lessons; Grimey Drawer

Don't we have allies in the region? Can't the Iraqi army invade Syria?

edit: </joke>

# ? Mar 20, 2013 02:52

farraday: Jan 10, 2007; Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Saint Celestine posted:

Don't we have allies in the region? Can't the Iraqi army invade Syria?

Long story short, no and this is a terrible idea.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 02:53

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 18, 2024 17:18

cochise: Sep 11, 2011

The Entire Universe posted:

Are there any other sources on this? CNN is not a place I would consider a reliable source on major items.

The other major news outlets are pretty much parroting the same story from earlier and now CNN is pushing hard with "high probability" breaking news captions everywhere.

And unfortunately there are quite a few people screaming about false flag and using this situation to push that story from a month back or so about the hacked contractor e-mails (Britaim?) that were leaked-- and later proven fake.

# ? Mar 20, 2013 03:15

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

«‹›3125 »