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Imperfect intelligence on key locations Worry about civilian casualties Fear that any involvement will necessitate even further involvement (you break it you buy it) Potential retaliation against US interests in the region by Syria/Iran/Hezbollah
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May 5, 2013 21:41
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i poo poo trains posted:Regime video seems to confirm that the target was a weapons dump. Interestingly, in addition to hilariously claiming that the area was "99% civilian", they claim that the bombings only came after a rebel attack failed on the same site, implying that the FSA and Israel are colluding. Multiple locations were hit, non were artillery positions or chemical weapons stockpiles, but against air defense positions and missile stockpiles of Maher's 4th regiment, as well as the research center in Jumrayah. Oh, and the chicken farm. 155 wasn't attacked, despite what reports are saying. The rebels did launch an assault against the logistics battalion (I think) attached to the 155th last week in a major offensive in the Kalamoon region, but they didn't attack the 155th itself.
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May 5, 2013 22:01
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Xandu posted:Imperfect intelligence on key locations Well the Israelis seem to have the intelligence thing handled and just hitting well known military bases would still send a message. As cold as it sounds, civilian casualties are almost irrelevant. The Assad regime is already well into "boy who cried wolf" territory with its claims of massive civilian casualties anytime one of their assets is targeted by the rebels or Israel. It has undermined their credibility to the point that even legitimate reports will be treated with suspicion. And as far as retaliation is concerned, I doubt Syria/Iran/Hezbollah are pulling their punches against the US as is. The US is invariably held responsible for the actions of Israel anyways, and if they're already bombing things...
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May 5, 2013 22:06
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So I basically interpret from this that Israel did the equivalent of kicking the Assad regime in the balls as a warning?
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May 5, 2013 22:08
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Delthalaz posted:So I basically interpret from this that Israel did the equivalent of kicking the Assad regime in the balls as a warning? More like that scene where a grimacing Jack Palance throws down a revolver in the dirt in front of the villain and growls "go on, pick it up".
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May 5, 2013 22:18
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The Protagonist posted:^^^ How much stock do you put into the article he links claiming the Syrian air defense mechanism is essentially shite? I wouldn't be too surprised if their AA network is pretty crap even with all the talk of how advanced it is. Israel has repeatedly penetrated deep into Syrian airspace, and not just the recent sorties they have flown. They bombed the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007, and even buzzed Assad's palace in the 2006 Lebanon war and probably countless other times before that. While this doesn't compare to something like enforcing a no fly zone, it does show that the AA network has a serious weakness if it can't even protect Damascus.
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May 5, 2013 22:21
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Delthalaz posted:So I basically interpret from this that Israel did the equivalent of kicking the Assad regime in the balls as a warning? Replace Assad regime with Hezbollah and that's the more accurate scenario. Charliegrs posted:I wouldn't be too surprised if their AA network is pretty crap even with all the talk of how advanced it is. Israel has repeatedly penetrated deep into Syrian airspace, and not just the recent sorties they have flown. They bombed the Syrian nuclear reactor in 2007, and even buzzed Assad's palace in the 2006 Lebanon war and probably countless other times before that. While this doesn't compare to something like enforcing a no fly zone, it does show that the AA network has a serious weakness if it can't even protect Damascus. Akil Hashim is basing his talk off of 1982 experiences...But taking that with a grain of salt most of Syria's tech is about 20-30 years behind modern standards, with some exceptions (Airforce). The Scarlet Hot Dog fucked around with this message at 23:55 on May 5, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 23:52
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Krackbaby posted:Well the Israelis seem to have the intelligence thing handled and just hitting well known military bases would still send a message. As cold as it sounds, civilian casualties are almost irrelevant. The Assad regime is already well into "boy who cried wolf" territory with its claims of massive civilian casualties anytime one of their assets is targeted by the rebels or Israel. It has undermined their credibility to the point that even legitimate reports will be treated with suspicion. And as far as retaliation is concerned, I doubt Syria/Iran/Hezbollah are pulling their punches against the US as is. The US is invariably held responsible for the actions of Israel anyways, and if they're already bombing things... Assad doesn't "get" messages. Just look at the incident with Turkey a few months back when Syria kept launching rockets across the border over and over and over and over again way after Turkey basically grabbed Assad by the throat and said "OK, listen here motherfucker." I thought that was gonna lead to a serious bombing campaign until the U.N. diffused it by getting Turkey to chill in exchange for Germany sending Patriot missiles to their border. I'm not sure exactly what objectively calculative perspective you're drawing on to think that civilian casualties are irrelevant. The opposition has done all the right things diplomatically. They've met regularly with UN members, and been extremely tolerant of the lack of intervention all things considered. That's a relationship that is critically important to maintain for future Syrian stability. I realize you aren't saying throw all caution to the wind and turn the country to glass, but civilian casualties certainly do matter. Especially when you take into context the fact that this is all happening in a region that is very prevalent with anti-US viewpoints, and a willingness to act on them. This is the type of thing that gets them to hate us for our freedom. al-Nusra doesn't need a boost in recruiting numbers by having an easy scapegoat for the instability in Syria by blaming the West, which in turn makes things rough for the Coalition because they'll take some lumps for what would be seen as kissing the West's rear end, assuming they hadn't told us to get hosed yet. And no, "If the shoe fits, wear it" is not a good enough justification. Especially in the one conflict in a very long time where there's a significant push against Hezbollah, Iran, and the usual suspects. We could actually not be held responsible as being part of a Zionist plot to destroy the Arab world, and possibly even get a positive reputation in the country. Don't take loving that up lightly. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 00:04 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 5, 2013 23:59
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Volkerball posted:Assad doesn't "get" messages. Just look at the incident with Turkey a few months back when Syria kept launching rockets across the border over and over and over and over again way after Turkey basically grabbed Assad by the throat and said "OK, listen here motherfucker." I thought that was gonna lead to a serious bombing campaign until the U.N. diffused it by getting Turkey to chill in exchange for Germany sending Patriot missiles to their border. So what you are saying is all we have to do is take out the dictators in the middle east and the people will like us? Yeah thats worked really well for us in the past...
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May 6, 2013 00:06
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Charliegrs posted:So what you are saying is all we have to do is take out the dictators in the middle east and the people will like us? Yeah thats worked really well for us in the past... Comparing inciting rebellion in otherwise stable countries to an already established relationship with an opposition government that the vast majority of the world has formally acknowledged as the sole legitimate representatives of the Syrian people is a little silly.
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May 6, 2013 00:10
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An opposition government that is obviously being heavily by various outside interests and doesn't seem entirely too functional. There is a vast grey area for both Assad and them to exist in. More importantly, is the very real chance of a slippery slope if the cruise missile attacks don't have much of an effect (many times they don't).
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May 6, 2013 00:23
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Thanks to Face the Nation Benghazi is trending on Twitter right now. Ugh. As far as I can tell this Hicks guy who wasn't there gives testimony with lots of coulda shoulda woulda included and Issa's treating it like gospel?
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May 6, 2013 00:25
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Highspeeddub posted:Issa's treating it like gospel? And this is why it won't matter what testimony he has, because if Issa's buying it, its gotta be crap.
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May 6, 2013 00:43
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Highspeeddub posted:Thanks to Face the Nation Benghazi is trending on Twitter right now. Ugh. As far as I can tell this Hicks guy who wasn't there gives testimony with lots of coulda shoulda woulda included and Issa's treating it like gospel? "this Hicks guy" was the 2nd ranking state department official in Libya (and became temporary ambassador). He was the person that Amb Stevens called as they were under attack to inform the government that their compound was under attack. Hicks then called his superiors to inform them of the attack (with no action taken). The main piece of information presented in the Issa interview is that it was unequivocal that this was a terrorist attack, which makes it completely inexplicable that Susan Rice would tell obvious and bald-faced lies on national television. Especially in light of the fact that she implied that the Libyan head of state was himself lying. eta: here's the quote from Hicks quote:The net impact of what has transpired is the spokesperson of the most powerful country in the world has basically said that the President of Libya is either a liar or doesn't know what he isn't talking about. The impact of that is immeasureable. Magariaf has just lost face in front of not only his own people, but the world...My jaw hit the floor as I watched this. I've never been as embarassed in my life, in my career as on that day...I never reported a demonstration; I reported an attack on the consulate. Chris' last report if you want to say his final report, is "Greg we are under attack." Issa interview is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_8MsvUilT0 Arkane fucked around with this message at 01:02 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 6, 2013 00:58
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Ardennes posted:An opposition government that is obviously being heavily by various outside interests and doesn't seem entirely too functional. There is a vast grey area for both Assad and them to exist in. The coalition is probably on the way out, but I think that the underlying direction the country is heading politically is extremely encouraging. It's one of the few positive results of the revolution going on for so long. If the revolution had succeeded as quickly as it did in Egypt, Syria would be looking at Manaf Tlass as President and about a 2 degree change from the Assad regime. If it had succeeded after a year, the Muslim Brotherhood controlled Council would be in power. Now we're seeing the Coalition fail because Khatib and the local Coalition members resigned upon the Muslim Brotherhood taking control. To the applause of the rebels no less. That to me is one of the most progressive things that have happened in the entire Middle East in quite some time. Khatib is about the only politician who has broken through the fanadek stereotype and earned the respect of the opposition. When Assad does fall, Khatib, and his like-minded followers, are going to have tremendous influence on the direction Syria goes, because all signs point towards that direction being the one that appeals to the Syrian people the most. They've demonstrated that they will not stand by and be co-opted by Qatari influence and the Muslim Brotherhood, and with how much they've had to go through, I'd be extremely surprised to see the Syrian people settle for something they don't want. Aside from establishing stability and security (an admittedly HUGE issue), I'm more encouraged by what I've seen in Syria than any other revolution during the Arab Spring. The floor is Iraq 2.0, but the ceiling is the most progressive Islamic Democracy in the entire Middle East. I think that's worth considering. As far as the original post, I'd be most concerned about Assad going scorched earth on the local civilians. The only way I think intervention would be beneficial is if there were a way to basically defang, declaw, de-everything Assad in about 2 seconds flat. Even if all is lost militarily, as long as he possesses enough military assets to launch a massive attack on civilians out of spite, he scares the poo poo out of me. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 01:04 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 6, 2013 01:01
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 U.N. has testimony that Syrian rebels used sarin gas: investigatorhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/05/us-syria-crisis-un-idUSBRE94409Z20130505
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May 6, 2013 01:04
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Gen. Ripper posted:
The rebels? Oh man...
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May 6, 2013 01:06
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Arkane posted:
It's nice to see you back, fighting the good fight Arkane 
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May 6, 2013 01:07
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Benghazi
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Arkane posted:"this Hicks guy" was the 2nd ranking state department official in Libya (and became temporary ambassador). He was the person that Amb Stevens called as they were under attack to inform the government that their compound was under attack. Hicks then called his superiors to inform them of the attack (with no action taken). CBS News posted:"I think everybody in the mission thought it was a terrorist attack from the beginning," Greg Hicks, a 22-year foreign service diplomat who was the highest-ranking U.S. official in Libya after the strike, told investigators under authority of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. Hicks, the former U.S. Embassy Tripoli deputy chief of mission, was not in Benghazi at the time of the attack, which killed Chris Stevens - then the U.S. ambassador to Libya - and three other Americans. He wasn't there, and he thought it was a terrorist attack. Where's the smoking gun?
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May 6, 2013 01:09
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How are u posted:Pointless troll Well we can't let people have the false impression that this administration is the least bit competent. Highspeeddub posted:He wasn't there, and he thought it was a terrorist attack. Where's the smoking gun? I really have no idea what you're talking about. It was a terrorist attack. Everyone knew it. Why Rice lied is beyond my own comprehension. Perhaps you can shed light on this subject.
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May 6, 2013 01:10
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Arkane posted:Issa interview is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W_8MsvUilT0 Oh Arkane, really? You think that watching an interview with 'Conspiracy Theory Attack-Dog' Issa is going to convince anyone? Please. Issa is a joke, the new Joe McCarthy, and you are buying it hook, line, and sinker.
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May 6, 2013 01:13
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Arkane posted:Well we can't let people have the false impression that this administration is the least bit competent. I have no idea why they OK'd Rice using that line but it still doesn't make Benghazi a scandal or relevant to American politics outside of the 2014 Republican primaries.
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May 6, 2013 01:13
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Yeah Arkane you are an idiot. Also this is for a different thread. Libya is in north africa, not the middle east. And bengazi wasn't a war.
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May 6, 2013 01:14
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Gen. Ripper posted:
Well thats great, it isn't necessarily hard proof but if it true it brings up a lot of questions about Syria's future stability. Honestly, I haven't seen much that that gives me a particular reason to root for the rebels the loose hope they are going to be better than Assad in some fashion. In addition, the fact that they are so dis-unified also means there is a very good chance none of them will gone out on top. Putting the chemical weapon issue aside, I don't see much of an opening for Syria to be a functioning democracy between political, ethnic and religious disunity, foreign support for proxy groups and economic catastrophe. Unlike Iraq or Libya, Syria really doesn't have oil to rely on and are pretty much going to have to rely on foreign aid for reconstruction which means the government is going to be reliant on which side pony's up enough cash. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 01:24 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 6, 2013 01:17
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CommieGIR posted:Oh Arkane, really? You think that watching an interview with 'Conspiracy Theory Attack-Dog' Issa is going to convince anyone? The topic is Hicks' testimony, which doesn't have all that much to do with Issa except that without him we wouldn't even have it at all. Hicks was not even contacted for the State Department investigation of itself (which found no one important in error on anything, insert laughter), so this is both new and important information. How are u posted:I have no idea why they OK'd Rice using that line but it still doesn't make Benghazi a scandal or relevant to American politics outside of the 2014 Republican primaries. Yes I guess if you only view Benghazi through the spectrum of a political game, it might not move that many pieces on your pretend playing board.
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May 6, 2013 01:17
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How are u posted:I have no idea why they OK'd Rice using that line but it still doesn't make Benghazi a scandal or relevant to American politics outside of the 2014 Republican primaries. Probably had something to do with the entire Middle East blowing up, the embassy in Sana'a being overrun, a German embassy being attacked, etc. etc. all due to spontaneous attacks from protests. Benghazi was the exception to the rule that week, and that's what clouded the water a bit.
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May 6, 2013 01:19
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Arkane posted:The topic is Hicks' testimony, which doesn't have all that much to do with Issa except that without him we wouldn't even have it at all. Just stop. Its the wrong thread to discuss conspiracies. Look, lets say we take Hicks testimony into account: What would the difference be? Did Hicks have a magic teleporter that would allow him to instantly route reinforcements through time and space to stop what happened? It still would have taken TIME to get reinforcements there, time that really wasn't available. Take it somewhere else. Ardennes posted:Well thats great, it isn't necessarily hard proof but if it true it brings up a lot of questions about Syria's future stability Well if the Rebel's used Sarin, I suspect Israel will go even more apeshit with the bombing campaign CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 01:22 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 6, 2013 01:20
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Arkane posted:
That is like the only way it could matter.
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May 6, 2013 01:21
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Baloogan posted:Yeah Arkane you are an idiot. Also this is for a different thread. Libya is in north africa, not the middle east. And bengazi wasn't a war. Your second claim is wrong because your third is right geographically, but not culturally. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 01:26 on May 6, 2013 |
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May 6, 2013 01:23
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CommieGIR posted:Just stop. Its the wrong thread to discuss conspiracies. First of all, I'm fine to drop the topic; I didn't even bring it up. This'll probably be my last reply. Second of all, this has a bearing on the Middle East because we know that Yemenis were involved in the attack (with ties to Al Qaeda, to boot). And just to be clear, this isn't a some looney conspiracy. Rice, at an absolute minimum, told a falsehood on 5 national television talk shows, which -- besides lying to the American people (as a public official) -- potentially damaged our relationship with Libya and delayed US investigations into the people who killed 4 Americans. As to why she did it, you're free to come up with your own conspiracy theories. I'm fine just to chalk it up to Obama administration incompetence.
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May 6, 2013 01:27
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Arkane posted:First of all, I'm fine to drop the topic; I didn't even bring it up. This'll probably be my last reply. Second of all, this has a bearing on the Middle East because we know that Yemenis were involved in the attack (with ties to Al Qaeda, to boot). Thats the thing, the death of 4 Americans still pales in comparison to the issue at hand, the lives of millions of Syrians. (Tens of thousands of which have already died.)
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May 6, 2013 01:33
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Arkane posted:First of all, I'm fine to drop the topic; I didn't even bring it up. This'll probably be my last reply. Second of all, this has a bearing on the Middle East because we know that Yemenis were involved in the attack (with ties to Al Qaeda, to boot). If you were willing to drop it you would have dropped it instead of posting bullshit leading statements. No one expected honesty out of you though so I don't suppose anyone can claim to be disappointed. Need more information on the rebel sarin claim, if it's one of the incidents that have been claimed or some other incident. Odd that they're relying on treatment as evidence of sarin instead of blood work.
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May 6, 2013 01:35
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Arkane posted:First of all, I'm fine to drop the topic; I didn't even bring it up. This'll probably be my last reply. Second of all, this has a bearing on the Middle East because we know that Yemenis were involved in the attack (with ties to Al Qaeda, to boot). And George Bush signed the Patriot Act and Dick Cheney profited from the Iraq war. And Clinton did have sexual relations with Miss Lewinsky. Please, for pete's sake. Go shill for the Tea Party somewhere else. farraday posted:Need more information on the rebel sarin claim, if it's one of the incidents that have been claimed or some other incident. Odd that they're relying on treatment as evidence of sarin instead of blood work. Who provided the evidence is what I want to know?
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May 6, 2013 01:46
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It's very plausible in the sense that I wouldn't put some of the opposition forces past using chemical weapons (although it indicates Assad has lost control of his chemical stockpiles, which is very worrying), but testimony from medical staff and victims that are no longer in Syria sounds even less reliable than the blood tests the US/UK was doing.
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May 6, 2013 01:48
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Gen. Ripper posted:
Urgh. Let's wait until we have concrete proofs, on the other hand, because the regime pretending to be rebel and attacking their own supporters is not something that is even remotely surprising.
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May 6, 2013 01:50
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I don't know how well Syrian chemical weapons are stored and marked, but ti wouldn't surprise me if they'd been use accidentally by either side. Considering the wide range of military competence displayed by both rebel and regime forces it seems entirely plausible that someone could just be launching anything and everything they can find at the other guys without caring what it was. During the Libyan Civil War Qaddafi loyalist forces shelled Benghazi harbor with rockets loaded with landmines which seemed to indicate that they either didn't know or didn't care what the rockets they were firing actually were.
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May 6, 2013 01:54
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Speaking of Libya, how about a little dose of épuration légale? (BBC, «Libya parliament bans Gaddafi-era officials») Deghaddafication is gonna be hugely popular, but Iraq experience tells us this method can be disastrous. I can understand the feeling of the Libyans (Les collabos au poteau!), but that law might take out so much competent people the country needs in order to punish a few turncoats. An uncomfortable situation any which way.
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May 6, 2013 02:02
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This thread was where we talked about the Benghazi attack seven months ago. It's my fault for bringing it up here.
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May 6, 2013 02:10
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Libya is absolutely on topic for this thread, it started as the Arab Spring thread, of which North Africa was the largest part.
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May 6, 2013 02:52
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Golbez posted:Libya is absolutely on topic for this thread, it started as the Arab Spring thread, of which North Africa was the largest part. Libya Conspiracy theories?
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May 6, 2013 02:57
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