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DNova posted:If you are for real and not just trolling, you are so dense it's ridiculous. Please, do tell how Tesla can create a $30,000 electric car in the next few years and keep any sort of margin knowing that established car manufacturers such as GM (Volt: $40k) and Nissan (Leaf: $35k) don't appear to be able to do so now. Also, what are the margins on a Leaf and a Volt? From what I have found from a quick Google search it doesn't look too profitable. "Better technology" to make EVs more appealing to the mass market is going to cost more, not less to develop and manufacture. I just don't see Tesla being anything but a luxury car manufacturer for at least a decade. After that, who knows where the auto market will be. EVs just don't make sense in the $20-30k price range.
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May 12, 2013 18:23
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One point from a cost perspective is that GM and Ford have massive pension obligations which get baked into the cost of every automobile.
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May 12, 2013 18:28
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Cars are a prime case study for highly irrational, high-pricetag consumer decisions. The hybrid/EV community is all about making these calcualtions, and yes it does often come up favourable for EVs, but the marketing people keep saying "yes I agree people should want this, but the truth is very few people give a gently caress about the math and they want whatever car they want." Semi-related interesting research note: Some people would not buy a car with the word "hybrid" in it even if it were the same capital cost, had demonstrable fuel cost savings, and equal performance. People also buy another 750 mL bottle of the same liquor week after week because "I don't feel like dropping $30 right now," even people whose paycheck/budget is enough that they could have afforded the larger bottle and saved lots over time. It will take a cultural shift for Average Joes to accept EVs as a good idea. I think that shift is underway, and the demonstrable lifetime cost savings will help to drive that shift, but it's not going to be quick or simple.
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May 12, 2013 18:33
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alnilam posted:"yes I agree people should want this, but the truth is very few people give a gently caress about the math and they want whatever car they want." When investing, always remember that the average american is not an intelligent, calculating sort of individual. The market is not made up of people as smart as we all like to think we are.
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May 12, 2013 18:39
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Cheesemaster200 posted:Please, do tell how Tesla can create a $30,000 electric car in the next few years and keep any sort of margin knowing that established car manufacturers such as GM (Volt: $40k) and Nissan (Leaf: $35k) don't appear to be able to do so now. DNova posted:If you are for real and not just trolling, you are so dense it's ridiculous.
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May 12, 2013 18:39
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alnilam posted:Semi-related interesting research note: Some people would not buy a car with the word "hybrid" in it even if it were the same capital cost, had demonstrable fuel cost savings, and equal performance. Because hybrids always look like goddamn poo poo. It's always a hatchback shoe looking thing. Where's a nice, reasonably priced 4-door sedan hybrid? They're only just now starting to come out. The word "hybrid" has been associated with ugly looking cars, that's why people don't want to buy them. It's not because they irrationally hate saving money and like using more gasoline. Obsurveyor fucked around with this message at 19:00 on May 12, 2013 |
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May 12, 2013 18:57
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Obsurveyor posted:Because hybrids always look like goddamn poo poo. It's always a hatchback shoe looking thing. Where's a nice, reasonably priced 4-door sedan hybrid? They're only just now starting to come out. The word "hybrid" has been associated with ugly looking cars, that's why people don't want to buy them. It's not because they irrationally hate saving money and using more gasoline. There have been hybrid versions of totally normal cars for many years. Some of them even got discontinued because they sold poorly - early adopters weren't interested in driving a hybrid if nobody could tell they were driving a hybrid. People just think all hybrids look like a prius because (a) on the street, normal-looking hybrids are practically invisible whereas priuses are obvious, and (b) Toyota marketing made a point to make "prius" synonymous with "hybrid." edit: Fun fact, for a year or two there was a hybrid escalade. It sold very poorly because people who want escalades are in the demographic that irrationally hates hybrids. But, miles-per-gallon is actually a misleading metric. The gas savings are actually 1/X if X is mpg, so at higher values of mpg, you get diminishing returns. So 1 escalade being replaced with a hybrid escalade saves more gas (for society, the driver, whatever) than like 20 sedans being replaced with priuses. This is also why buses and trucks should be the main target for clean vehicle tech - if we took the average mpg of large-duty vehicles from 1 to 2 mpg, the emissions/gasoline use benefit would be equivalent to about a third of private cars completely disappearing from the road. alnilam fucked around with this message at 19:17 on May 12, 2013 |
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May 12, 2013 19:04
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alnilam posted:There have been hybrid versions of totally normal cars for many years. Some of them even got discontinued because they sold poorly - early adopters weren't interested in driving a hybrid if nobody could tell they were driving a hybrid. Well, that's a more complicated problem of early adopters and bad judgement on the automaker's part. It won't be an issue today. It wasn't just about status either. I'm pretty sure all of those hybrid sedans were a lot more expensive than their gas only counterparts, so there wasn't as much incentive. You have to take into account how people were buying cars too. They were changing them every two years. If the fuel savings didn't exceed a significant amount of the difference in upfront cost over two years, they didn't make sense. The economy and buying habits are different now.
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May 12, 2013 19:11
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Obsurveyor posted:Well, that's a more complicated problem of early adopters and bad judgement on the automaker's part. It won't be an issue today. Maybe true. But you said that normal-looking hybrids were "only just now coming out" and I'm just saying that's not true. ninja-edit: I should bring this conversation back to Tesla - one of the really good things they're doing is making EVs sexy so all the everyday consumers who don't think about fuel savings will at least stop thinking that EV = lovely car. real edit: vvvv yeah sorry, it's just I work in a related field to EVs, and it's hard to see people say false things about it without setting the record straight. It'd be like if you went to AI and someone said "the problem with wall street is the company ends up caring only about its share price and not about its bottom line" or something similarly not-completely-off-base-but-still-wrong. That's probably a bad comparison but anyway you'd probably speak up and say "that's not really true." alnilam fucked around with this message at 19:55 on May 12, 2013 |
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May 12, 2013 19:18
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Can an admin move this thread to AI? Thanks in advance.
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May 12, 2013 19:38
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mindphlux posted:Can an admin move this thread to AI? If this thread belongs anywhere else it is in "Inspect Your Gadgets", not AI.
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May 12, 2013 20:44
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Cheesemaster200 posted:If this thread belongs anywhere else it is in "Inspect Your Gadgets", not AI. DNova posted:If you are for real and not just trolling, you are so dense it's ridiculous.
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May 13, 2013 00:50
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Please leave.
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May 13, 2013 01:18
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I think the business point was that Cheese's assumptions of the market are off base and trying to determine TSLA value based on those assumptions was misguided.
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May 13, 2013 03:37
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It seems very likely the EVs will have a pretty big impact on 2-car suburban households in the not too distant future. I imagine there will be a lot of garages with an EV sedan sitting next to a gas SUV. Penciling Tesla in as a market leader in that world, though, is a bit tenuous. Do they (or will they) have any patents that significantly put them ahead of the competition? If they do, great buyout target for a large auto player. If not, hard to see how they compete.
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May 13, 2013 07:25
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What the hell, TSLA, I just can't quit you  But this is becoming a bit unreasonable, now. Eh, I just sold my calls at 16.80 (originally 5.90). I could've squeezed a few more dollars but I'm not in the business of watching this thing all day. Though today was another example of "it's better to just not do anything the first 15 minutes" as I probably would've not sold asap and been able to more easily squeeze those dollars. But ~280% is a bit obscene. Josh Lyman, even if you forgot to buy before earnings, you could've bought the day after and still made a very tidy profit. e: Also I', trimming my REITs here and there, AGNC is lookin pretty lovely today. e: OK TSLA, gently caress you so harrrddd. Turkeybone fucked around with this message at 15:12 on May 13, 2013 |
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May 13, 2013 14:18
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In early 2007, when I was first learning about stocks, I purchased a few shares in GME (Gamestop) I bought in on the Halo 3 release gravy train. So I bought the stocks way before they peaked at 62 bucks. After Halo 3 was released the stock just tanked starting in December. I swore to myself that when I got my money that I invested back I would sell. Now that the stock is back up it seems to be having a lot of activity. I am reading a lot about how its a smart investment now and everyone seems to be ramping it up. My question is WHY?! there are rumors that the PS4 and the new XBOX will not be compatible with second hand games which would kill Gamestop's re-sell cash cow. Is the stock climbing because of rumors of a new ps4 and xbox's release info coming up in a few days? I honestly do not see any news about why the stock is growing other than people just saying buy buy buy.
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May 13, 2013 14:34
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 In any case, I think you're just feeling regret that nothing came of your investment, and now some part of you is trying to rationalize holding onto it. The stock has been flying high, and I know nothing about it these days, but idk just realize that your sell point is completely arbitrary and most "news" about stocks is pure bullshit. Check out their fundamentals and decide if they're doing better or not.
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May 13, 2013 14:58
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Sold all my Tesla at 82 and am short again at 84. I guess we'll see how it goes.
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May 13, 2013 15:15
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Arkane posted:Sold all my Tesla at 82 and am short again at 84. I guess we'll see how it goes. Oh come on you know it is just a matter of time before they are outselling Toyota with $15k electric cars with 700 mile ranges. Is this just a massive short squeeze or what heck is going on? Are retail investors massive optimists? Can't buy a Tesla so I dump the kids college fund into the stock instead? This makes no sense. Loading up on XOM.
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May 13, 2013 15:41
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Look at the obscene volume. That isn't kids college funds. The short interest was something like 40%, so no, they don't have to remotely come close to outselling Toyota or whatnot to see a squeeze like this. But turning profit turned heads I'm sure, as well as scared many shorts, so now the whole shebang needs to be reevaluated.
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May 13, 2013 16:03
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Meanwhile, look at SolarCity. I remember buying call options when it was at 19ish just purely on the halo effect. I sold off when it went to like 22 or something. That was a month ago or thereabouts. It's at 34 right now 
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May 13, 2013 16:06
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kalvick posted:In early 2007, when I was first learning about stocks, I purchased a few shares in GME (Gamestop) It's actually prety cheap and I would hold on to it. The second-hand games are indeed a major cash cow.
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May 13, 2013 16:50
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:It's actually prety cheap and I would hold on to it. That game publishers are actively looking to destroy.
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May 13, 2013 17:07
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COUNTIN THE BILLIES posted:It's actually prety cheap and I would hold on to it. I understand used games are a cash cow. I know that used games are what makes Gamestop so profitable. With the rumors of Sony and Microsoft games that are locked to one system, the cash cow will eventually evaporate. It brings me back to my original question, what the hell is causing the massive spike in shares being bought, I just don't see a reason for it.
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May 13, 2013 17:09
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Arkane posted:Meanwhile, look at SolarCity. I remember buying call options when it was at 19ish just purely on the halo effect. I sold off when it went to like 22 or something. That was a month ago or thereabouts. If solars are running we are close to the end of this move.
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May 13, 2013 17:22
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Arkane posted:Meanwhile, look at SolarCity. I remember buying call options when it was at 19ish just purely on the halo effect. I sold off when it went to like 22 or something. That was a month ago or thereabouts. What the hell, it's up like 30% today.
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May 13, 2013 17:37
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evilwaldo posted:If solars are running we are close to the end of this move. Elon Musk is chairman; I think it is a combination of the halo effect where people want to have a piece of Musk and the massive short interest in the company (which probably has a promising future). Said it earlier, but the past two days just prove it...SpaceX IPO right now would be loving enormous. Everyone would want it.
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May 13, 2013 18:01
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I don't usually try to put meaning on it, I just watch the money.
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May 13, 2013 18:28
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Smear Campaign posted:That game publishers are actively looking to destroy. And have failed so far
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May 13, 2013 18:59
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Depends. Digital sales have already outpaced physical on the PC, what 3 years ago? And it would seem very logical to me that next gen consoles will emulate the Steam/Origin model, and try to focus on digital sales of games. Even if they won't disable the ability to play used games (this was confirmed I believe), we can expect a big drop in physical sales if the PC market is anything to go by.
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May 13, 2013 19:11
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I keep waiting for a dip on XONE and it never happens. I wish they had an option chain.
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May 13, 2013 20:02
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So I've been trying to buy a house, and I have a decent chunk of change for the down payment. But, as I've recently learned, it's almost impossible to buy a house in SF unless you're paying all cash. I have been passed over multiple times for a lower all-cash offer. I'm still making offers, but I think there's a good chance I won't be able to buy a house for a while. Right now the money is sitting in a savings account from CIT Bank (yes I know they went bankrupt a few years ago, but the account is FDIC insured) earning 1% interest. Is there a way to increase returns without significantly increasing risk? Would a Bond ETF work? Keep in mind that I may need to pull this money at any time, but most likely not until next year.
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May 13, 2013 20:14
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TUBALLINATOR posted:Depends. Digital sales have already outpaced physical on the PC, what 3 years ago? And it would seem very logical to me that next gen consoles will emulate the Steam/Origin model, and try to focus on digital sales of games. Even if they won't disable the ability to play used games (this was confirmed I believe), we can expect a big drop in physical sales if the PC market is anything to go by. Maybe I'm just too insulated from "normal people" out in my little Coupons world, but my impression of why digital games are so popular on the PC is that their price drops by ridiculous amounts only a couple weeks after release. So far, we've seen the opposite in consoleland, where you can grab a copy of a game for $10 new on Amazon but it's still selling for $30 on XBL. The other big reason I see is that even before the rise of digital on PC, you couldn't really sell used PC games like you could used console games, which removed one of the big advantages of a physical copy. Still, I wouldn't bet against the rise of digital on consoles. With better connections, better online services, more storage space, the ability to play while the game is still downloading (confirmed in PS4), and the determination of games publishers to kill off the used market, there's really only one way the trend can go.
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May 13, 2013 20:17
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sincx posted:So I've been trying to buy a house, and I have a decent chunk of change for the down payment.
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May 13, 2013 20:45
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Tesla at 89 in the after hours Alright well there go all my gains today. Wondering if I should even hold onto it short anymore. ETA: The stock rose around 22% after the earnings were released/earnings call. Since that reaction, the stock has risen ANOTHER 33.5% after that.
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May 13, 2013 21:40
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evilwaldo posted:Please leave. *this applies to everyone posting stupid poo poo in this thread that is not contributive, cut that poo poo out
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May 13, 2013 22:19
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Any advise on listening to conference calls? My work schedule has changed to where I will have more free time for monitoring my investments and I have been working on changing gears from set it and forget it to more hands on. I've been using the Neatest Little Guide to Stock Market Investing as my guide and I like the information in it and found it easy to follow. I've listened to a few calls and I haven't been able to get much out of them that I couldn't get from the supporting materials. Am I missing something or being lazy? As an individual investor in mainly in value stocks it seems like by the time I get around to listening to the call the information has already been factored into the price. Any thoughts?
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May 13, 2013 22:57
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Been a great month to be really long on Nokia. I think this quarter is going to be the one that I've been waiting for since early last year. Their flagship phone for Verizon is hitting stores on Thursday, the 925 is being announced tomorrow, and the 520/521 appears to be selling phenomenally well. I can't wait to see the numbers from this quarter. If they push 10m+ smartphones and the NSN division has a typically good quarter, the stock is going to explode.
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May 14, 2013 00:20
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sincx posted:Is there a way to increase returns without significantly increasing risk? No. If there were, everyone would do that instead of using savings accounts. Fortunately, inflation is so low your money is not really losing much value sitting in a savings account these days.
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May 14, 2013 02:03
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