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OwlBot 2000 posted:Doesn't prove anything, it's just an amazing statistic if true. How much organization was done online, or did people just kind of see the news reports and show up? Good to see that the Iraqi army is making some profitable black market deals off the US arms they are getting.
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Jul 10, 2013 23:49
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The only protests where the count is really effective (in the US) is General Strikes - like what we saw at the Port of Oakland a couple years back. But I'm fairly certain agitating for a general strike is borderline terrorism. In the Bush era I think many Iraq Protesters bought the line that the media is reality. I think many still think in this way, and just assume that they don't have enough 'mojo' to affect change. If one mass rally failed, why try again? The size of the USA makes her governance very different from her Eurasian allies. On one hand the size of the country makes it difficult to manage (like the effects of a gridlocked congress on foreign policy/treaties/aid) on the other hand something like the mass rallies of Tahrir affecting all 50 states is unimaginable. OwlBot 2000 posted:On another subject, US Arms are showing up amongst pro-Assad groups. Oops! You kill more flies with honey than with vinegar.
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Jul 10, 2013 23:51
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Gen. Ripper posted:What the gently caress does that even mean, how does it matter if people were part of the organizational effort or just joined in after the protests started? Please, relax. I'm interested in tactics, I'm not criticizing anyone. I'm asking what the primary avenues were for mobilizing people because I want to learn what works best in what circumstances.
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Jul 10, 2013 23:53
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OwlBot 2000 posted:On another subject, US Arms are showing up amongst pro-Assad groups. Oops!
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Jul 11, 2013 00:01
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Something I don't understand, why is Saudi Arabia bankrolling the Sunni jihadists in Syria but also propping up the secular military government in Egypt? Qatar was loving pissed that the Muslim Brotherhood got ousted, but there was a Saudi princess on RT making the deafeningly ironic statement that Islamic groups had no place in government. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have good relations with the US, both are bankrolling their branch of Islam in Syria, so what's with the dichotomy there?
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Jul 11, 2013 00:08
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Aurubin posted:Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have good relations with the US, both are bankrolling their branch of Islam in Syria, so what's with the dichotomy there?
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Jul 11, 2013 00:59
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Aurubin posted:Something I don't understand, why is Saudi Arabia bankrolling the Sunni jihadists in Syria but also propping up the secular military government in Egypt? Qatar was loving pissed that the Muslim Brotherhood got ousted, but there was a Saudi princess on RT making the deafeningly ironic statement that Islamic groups had no place in government. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have good relations with the US, both are bankrolling their branch of Islam in Syria, so what's with the dichotomy there? Saudi Arabia apparently uses these things like Syria to ship their extremists off to do something useful/die. Also if I remember rightly the Saudi Royal family is pretty divided and all over the place at times.
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Jul 11, 2013 01:03
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OwlBot 2000 posted:Doesn't prove anything, it's just an amazing statistic if true. How much organization was done online, or did people just kind of see the news reports and show up? I'm not entirely sure of the logistics. If I had to speculate, I'd say it was a combination of both. A core group of activisits organized things, likely online and off, and things just sort of snowballed organically from there. I don't see how it would be possibly to organize that many people. (I believe the count was 15 million?)
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Jul 11, 2013 01:04
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OwlBot 2000 posted:Doesn't prove anything, it's just an amazing statistic if true. How much organization was done online, or did people just kind of see the news reports and show up? quote:Many of the U.S. weapons in the hands of pro-Assad militia could have reached the black market after a major U.S. sales to Iraq in 2009, said Christopher Harmer, a senior analyst at the Institute for the Study of War. Almost 10 years of fighting there left thousands of loose weapons floating around Iraq and available for sale on the black market. Not really much of an 'oops', weapons are going to get inevitably resold, or captured, etc. It's not very game changing either given that pro-Assad forces have never really dealt with much of a weapons shortage, now they just have a bit more diversity in their arsenal.
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Jul 11, 2013 01:09
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Aurubin posted:Something I don't understand, why is Saudi Arabia bankrolling the Sunni jihadists in Syria but also propping up the secular military government in Egypt? Qatar was loving pissed that the Muslim Brotherhood got ousted, but there was a Saudi princess on RT making the deafeningly ironic statement that Islamic groups had no place in government. Both Qatar and Saudi Arabia have good relations with the US, both are bankrolling their branch of Islam in Syria, so what's with the dichotomy there? It's wealthy individuals in Saudi Arabia that bankroll the jihadists in Syria. The government supports the SNC, and focuses on co-opting that organization with Saudi interests. It's two separate, wealthy groups with two different agendas. The only thing they have in common is that they act within Saudi Arabia.
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Jul 11, 2013 01:18
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I updated the SAclopedia entry but nobody reads those, so for anyone who's interested it looks like Caro is now officially missing, last seen in Syria. I don't know why they apparently only added him last month or how the FBI chooses people for the list in the first place. Hope they find him safe somewhere.
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Jul 11, 2013 01:40
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drat, he actually went.
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Jul 11, 2013 01:41
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Didn't he get found out the last time he was trying to go over? He has to be on a no-fly list or something by now. I really hope he didn't stumble his way back into the ME. He got really lucky in Libya.
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Jul 11, 2013 01:44
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I thought Caro got busted by Turkish border police and deported to the US. Regarding the US weapons found in Syria- Lebanon, Jordan, and as pointed out- Iraq have all received M pattern weapons in the past decade. They could have come from anywhere. That being said, the Iranian M4 clone is interesting; I thought they only used AK pattern rifles.
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Jul 11, 2013 01:59
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suboptimal posted:Regarding the US weapons found in Syria- Lebanon, Jordan, and as pointed out- Iraq have all received M pattern weapons in the past decade. They could have come from anywhere. That being said, the Iranian M4 clone is interesting; I thought they only used AK pattern rifles. Take advantage of NATO rounds as well as old Warsaw Pact rounds?
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Jul 11, 2013 02:07
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Aurubin posted:Take advantage of NATO rounds as well as old Warsaw Pact rounds? This makes sense. suboptimal posted:I thought Caro got busted by Turkish border police and deported to the US. I would hate to think of Caro finding a Patron after being deported and putting himself on someone's radar. Is there any proof he was back in California?
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Jul 11, 2013 02:38
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His last facebook post is late september.
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Jul 11, 2013 02:40
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McDowell posted:This makes sense. Also remember the US relationship before the revolution, the Shah got a very generous military aid package. It's why the modern Iranian military is hodge-podge of both Warsaw Pact and NATO weapons. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Equipment_of_the_Iranian_Army
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Jul 11, 2013 02:44
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This pisses me off so much: http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2013/07/2013710113522489801.html Obama congratulated Morsi on winning a fair election then turns around and then secretly funded oppositions groups run by people with terrible rights records. A fund designed to promote democracy was used to fund opposition groups who proceed to overthrow the democracy. Is there any way to rescind a Nobel Peace Prize?
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Jul 11, 2013 03:04
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We'd been funding those same groups under George W. Bush's administration while any challenge to Mubarak's regime was still in its crib. Remember who owns AJ and why they might be pissed about Morsi's ouster. Also, any pro-democracy funding we gave to opposition groups is far, far far outstripped by what the US has given the military, who have always been the dominant actors even if they don't advertise it openly.
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Jul 11, 2013 03:10
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MEPI, NED, and USAID are very public and generally good programs that fund a lot of important projects in the region. I've worked for organizations that have received funding from a couple of them before. That author has a very clear slant. Much of DRL's focus is on documenting human rights abuses around the world, it's hardly a secret fund for democracy. NSF (or "the salvation front") is an oppositon movemnt with Elbaradei, Amr Moussa and Sabahi. And yes, they participated in street protests, some of which turned violent. It links to an article with a tweet from an activist that essentially says mosques should stop talking about the constitution as evidence of "laying siege to mosques" and then cites a protest/riot from 3 months later as evidence that it had an effect.
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Jul 11, 2013 03:12
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suboptimal posted:I thought Caro got busted by Turkish border police and deported to the US. Pictures I've seen of Iranian military are generally with G3s.
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Jul 11, 2013 03:13
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The-Mole posted:Pictures I've seen of Iranian military are generally with G3s. They've had licence to build their own G3s since the Shah times.
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Jul 11, 2013 03:39
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The-Mole posted:Pictures I've seen of Iranian military are generally with G3s. They've been looking to move to this cheap-looking bullpup called the Khaybar that fires 5.56mm NATO and takes STANAG magazines. From what I remember, it's really just a S-5.56 in a bullpup casing, an AR-15 copy that was licensed from Norinco's own CQ AR clone. All it's fire controls are in the rear of the weapon, because they didn't bother to design a rod or redesign the selector-safety switch so it can be used with the firing hand.
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Jul 11, 2013 04:07
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Xandu posted:USAID [is a] very public and generally good program. Isn't it well established and documented that USAID has been consistently used as (a) a cover for clandestine American activity, including outright violence and (b) to funnel money into factions friendly to American interests? The humanitarian portion of it seems to be a veneer in light of what the organization is used for, even if there are plenty of well-meaning people working there.
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Jul 11, 2013 06:57
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AreWeDrunkYet posted:Isn't it well established and documented that USAID has been consistently used as (a) a cover for clandestine American activity, including outright violence and (b) to funnel money into factions friendly to American interests? The humanitarian portion of it seems to be a veneer in light of what the organization is used for, even if there are plenty of well-meaning people working there. USAID has never, ever even slightly or indirectly funded freedom fighters in Latin America. And we all know what freedom fighters fight.
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Jul 11, 2013 11:41
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Vernii posted:Not really much of an 'oops', weapons are going to get inevitably resold, or captured, etc. It's not very game changing either given that pro-Assad forces have never really dealt with much of a weapons shortage, now they just have a bit more diversity in their arsenal. There have been "Western" arms used by groups in the region for some time now, most notably featured in Syria by Hezbollah. China's Norinco builds clones of drat near any successful rifle on the planet and sells them pretty indiscriminately, to the point they were banned from sales to the US after attempting an 80s-action-movie "sell a cargo ship full of full-auto AKs to FBI agents pretending to be the LA gangs - don't forget to ask them if they want tanks and MANPADS!" deal. Using something that isn't a lovely AK is actually a bit of a status symbol.
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Jul 11, 2013 12:48
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From the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/11/world/middleeast/improvements-in-egypt-suggest-a-campaign-that-undermined-morsi.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0 quote:Sudden Improvements in Egypt Suggest a Campaign to Undermine Morsi
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Jul 11, 2013 15:53
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Vegetable posted:From the New York Times: Is NYT really surprised or just feigning it? Will they also be surprised at the instantaneous availability of scarce goods if a US friendly regime takes over in Venezuela?
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Jul 11, 2013 16:22
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Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:Is NYT really surprised or just feigning it? Yeah the CIA is causing scarcity in Venezuela... Not sure what your problem is with the news story, but I will say that this fake crisis doesn't mean there aren't real potential issues with fuel availability with Egypt.
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Jul 11, 2013 17:28
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Xandu posted:Yeah the CIA is causing scarcity in Venezuela... While most of the Morsi trainwreck does sound inflicted, it's not surprising that many other parties such as ultra-wealthy Egyptians had a big financial interest in helping the process along given how Islamist takeover fears could impact things such as foreign aid from the Gulf States/West.
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Jul 11, 2013 18:28
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Xandu posted:Yeah the CIA is causing scarcity in Venezuela... Not the CIA, but there certainly are people who were involved with the Business Strike/Oil Strike and the 2002 Coup who have the ability and incentive to do whatever they can do destabilize PSUV. Are there issues of demand pull inflation due to poor people being able to buy things for the first time? Absolutely, but it's not the only factor at work.
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Jul 11, 2013 18:33
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etalian posted:While most of the Morsi trainwreck does sound inflicted, it's not surprising that many other parties such as ultra-wealthy Egyptians had a big financial interest in helping the process along given how Islamist takeover fears could impact things such as foreign aid from the Gulf States/West. I'll agree here. Isolated from the context, Morsi's government was not a healthy entity for these reasons. And considering the overtures the Muslim Brotherhood was making in regards to the region, and their "guns and moltovs" approach to protesting, was not good for Egypt. But considering the police are suddenly back on the street and the lights are working again, yeah that's suspect. It remains to be seen if the transitional government and the potential official one after will merely be a puppet regime for Al-Sisi and the army, or if they'll be content with their slice of the pie. Still, the larger problem of increasing population combined with scant resources is a problem I can't see being fixed in the interim, and that is frightening for a nation the size of Egypt.
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Jul 11, 2013 18:37
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If the world was a videogame, lots of people and not too many resources means you need to expand to get them resources.
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Jul 11, 2013 18:49
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Aurubin posted:Still, the larger problem of increasing population combined with scant resources is a problem I can't see being fixed in the interim, and that is frightening for a nation the size of Egypt. Yeah I don't see much hope for Egypt over the long term since things such as focusing more on renewable energy/energy conservation or reducing the population growth rate would require big financial investment. The military is another problem given how it chews up a good amount of GNP at 3.56% and is more in line with a self-interest focused powerful Praetorian guard. Egypt also lacks the means to replicate successful economic models such as a Germany style export focused economy, Asian Tiger model or a diversified knowledge/export economy like the US. etalian fucked around with this message at 18:58 on Jul 11, 2013 |
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Jul 11, 2013 18:56
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Aurubin posted:I'll agree here. Isolated from the context, Morsi's government was not a healthy entity for these reasons. And considering the overtures the Muslim Brotherhood was making in regards to the region, and their "guns and moltovs" approach to protesting, was not good for Egypt. But considering the police are suddenly back on the street and the lights are working again, yeah that's suspect. It remains to be seen if the transitional government and the potential official one after will merely be a puppet regime for Al-Sisi and the army, or if they'll be content with their slice of the pie. Still, the larger problem of increasing population combined with scant resources is a problem I can't see being fixed in the interim, and that is frightening for a nation the size of Egypt. The police aren't just "suspect," they were completely open about their anti-Morsi activity. Before his ousting an article quoted a police chief threatening retaliation against officers protecting the Muslim Brotherhood. Their political activity is well documented.
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Jul 11, 2013 20:23
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Squalid posted:The police aren't just "suspect," they were completely open about their anti-Morsi activity. Before his ousting an article quoted a police chief threatening retaliation against officers protecting the Muslim Brotherhood. Their political activity is well documented. Oh no I agree, all the old civil infrastructure hated Morsi. I just have a hard time feeling bad about that. If it leads to something worse, my feelings will change.
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Jul 11, 2013 20:43
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Yeah it will be interesting if any evidence of organized manipulation of fuel and power supplies turns up. I wonder if the military has any control over the energy grid or gas reserves?
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Jul 11, 2013 21:08
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Aurubin posted:Oh no I agree, all the old civil infrastructure hated Morsi. I just have a hard time feeling bad about that. If it leads to something worse, my feelings will change. Just wait until the IMF gets their way.
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Jul 11, 2013 21:15
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Ardennes posted:Just wait until the IMF gets their way. It's back to business as usual with the military being the most powerful political force and friends overseas getting their way with the country (IMF, Gulf states and USA).
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Jul 11, 2013 21:18
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