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An 11-year old Yemeni girl has fled from her family and threatened to kill herself rather than go through with an arranged marriage. http://www.businessinsider.com/nada-al-ahdal-arranged-marriage-rather-kill-myself-2013-7 quote:A video posted to LiveLeak today features a profound monologue by an 11 year-old Yemeni girl whose family attempted to force her into an arranged marriage. There's a 2 minute speech she gives on video at the link.
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Jul 22, 2013 21:24
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Install Gentoo posted:Regardless of how much oil is actually there, Australia needs to build up the infrastructure and industry to start tapping it and most importantly to export it, before it will really affect the global oil market and have real consequences for middle east petrostates. Knowing nothing about it, I'm curious — would their proximity to southeast asia make them more attractive even if they lack the infrastructure now?
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Jul 22, 2013 21:45
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Namarrgon posted:Exactly this. Australia has ridiculous amounts of natural resources in general. It lacks the population, infrastructure and apparently the will to exploit it all to the maximum of its ability. If Australia had 150 million inhabitants the world power balance could look a whole lot different.
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Jul 22, 2013 21:49
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Namarrgon posted:Exactly this. Australia has ridiculous amounts of natural resources in general. It lacks the population, infrastructure and apparently the will to exploit it all to the maximum of its ability. If Australia had 150 million inhabitants the world power balance could look a whole lot different. A state doesn't necessarily need a population of 150 million inhabitants to become a great power. Spain and England dominated world politics for a long time with just a small population. Even the 17th century Dutch Republic with a population of just 1,5 million was, for several decades, the richest and most powerful state in the world. What a state needs to become a great power is a shitload of money, military superiority (historically a powerful navy, nowadays a major air force and intelligence network) and a shitload of contracts with other states.
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Jul 23, 2013 00:20
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Pieter posted:A state doesn't necessarily need a population of 150 million inhabitants to become a great power. Spain and England dominated world politics for a long time with just a small population. Even the 17th century Dutch Republic with a population of just 1,5 million was, for several decades, the richest and most powerful state in the world. What a state needs to become a great power is a shitload of money, military superiority (historically a powerful navy, nowadays a major air force and intelligence network) and a shitload of contracts with other states. The 17th century was dominated by France and Spain, the Dutch Republic was never the most powerful state in the world.
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Jul 23, 2013 00:32
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Lord Tywin posted:The 17th century was dominated by France and Spain, the Dutch Republic was never the most powerful state in the world. The Netherlands, with its financial power, the original transnational corporation (VOC), shipbuilding industries, exclusive access to Japanese markets, etc is widely considered to have formed the core of the global economy during this period by historians and world-systems theorists. To say that the Dutch Republic was preeminent over any other contemporary power might be arguable but it's hardly controversial.
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Jul 23, 2013 00:47
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Paper Mac posted:The Netherlands, with its financial power, the original transnational corporation (VOC), shipbuilding industries, exclusive access to Japanese markets, etc is widely considered to have formed the core of the global economy during this period by historians and world-systems theorists. To say that the Dutch Republic was preeminent over any other contemporary power might be arguable but it's hardly controversial. There's also the Portuguese and earlier Italian city states cases. And the massive populations in Spain and France didn't help them overcome the British and Dutch in the seas, even if they could march all over Europe. You certainly need a good population number to create an empire with strong population reserves for colonies, armies, navies, bureaucracy and so on but multiple nations have become quite powerful without them.
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Jul 23, 2013 01:01
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It's still a silly point to make, because Europe was largely interconnected as far as infrastructure, and Spain, France, England, and Portugal made up a sizable population relative to the time period. In the modern age, sure, Australia doesn't really need a shitload of people. They can, and do, import labor, and technological advances supersede population. It's pretty easy to conclude that Australia is already a global superpower anyways. Certainly economically.
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Jul 23, 2013 01:03
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/22/us-usa-syria-arms-idUSBRE96L0W520130722quote:Supporters of the rebels hope the deliveries of U.S.-provided arms will start in August. This may address chronic shortages of ammunition for rebel ground forces and provide a better counter to tank assaults. No anti air craft weaponry, but perhaps Washington is relying on Qatar and Saudi armaments to cover that aspect. I can't find any articles, but I think at least Qatar has taken the fall of Qusayr and the subsequent announcement of support from Washington as cover to start providing anti aircraft weaponry to rebels. Hezbollah's intervention and the string of recent victories for Assad may have only served to trigger a serious arming of rebel forces. Considering the Iranian intervention I wonder if this will do anything except freeze the front lines in place. In an ideal world this will bolster the standing of moderate forces and help the rebellion purge itself of those dickhead jihadists by showing Western support is a real and serious thing but I suppose the past two years have shown us that reality will take a different and more horrifying approach. Correct me if I'm wrong, but aren't there four major factions now at play in Syria? The regime, the FSA, the jihadists and the Kurds all seem to be sparring off with each other with increasing intensity and all of them want their own state.
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Jul 23, 2013 01:43
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Brother Friendship posted:http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/22/us-usa-syria-arms-idUSBRE96L0W520130722 Iran is also indirectly fighting in the conflict due to the Hezbollah's intervention on Assad's side.
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Jul 23, 2013 01:45
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etalian posted:Iran is also indirectly fighting in the conflict due to the Hezbollah's intervention on Assad's side. They'd fall under "the regime" in this simplified outlook. It doesn't take into account the internal debates within each faction, and the unique relationships between groups within factions with groups within other factions, but it's fairly accurate. "All of them want their own state" is a bit dishonest though. It's substantially more complicated than that. Volkerball fucked around with this message at 01:59 on Jul 23, 2013 |
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Jul 23, 2013 01:50
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quote:@HafsaHalawa quote:@cliffcheney quote:@nsabry
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Jul 23, 2013 02:11
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Yeah, that sounds about right in consideration of recent history.
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Jul 23, 2013 02:29
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*Sigh* well guess Egypt gets another round of Hosni Mubarak. In other news, the Intelligence Committees relented on Syria, for whatever reason. If the United States is so fixated on arming the "good" rebels, why not try to draw the Kurds into greater agreement with the FSA? Problems with Turkey? Or does everybody hate the Kurds more than Al-Qaeda? Relevant to my latter question: http://rudaw.net/english/interview/22072013?lw Aurubin fucked around with this message at 03:37 on Jul 23, 2013 |
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Jul 23, 2013 03:33
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Ahram and Jadaliyya are reporting that 71% of Egyptians are unsympathetic to Pro-Morsi protestors. They claim a 3% margin of error. http://english.ahram.org.eg/NewsContent/1/64/77085/Egypt/Politics-/-of-Egyptians-unsympathetic-with-proMorsi-protests.aspx http://www.jadaliyya.com/pages/index/13128/seventy-one-percent-of-egyptians-unsympathetic-wit quote:Egyptians are by and large unsympathetic to protests calling for the reinstatement of Egypt’s toppled Islamist president Mohamed Morsi.  Not sure how reliable that poll is, but it's from a credible source.
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Jul 23, 2013 03:40
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That seems right to me.
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Jul 23, 2013 03:50
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I guess we shall see if that polling turns out to be true, granted it is probably also unclear how many support the current regime. It is very possible there are fair amount of people who are claiming a "pox on both."
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Jul 23, 2013 03:51
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Although,quote:The independent Cairo-based organisation polled 2,214 adults from across Egypt's 27 governorates via telephone on 20 and 21 July. The poll’s margin of error is less than 3 percent. That is an absurdly fast turn-around time. Weekend poll and then published mid-Monday.
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Jul 23, 2013 03:54
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Volkerball posted:An 11-year old Yemeni girl has fled from her family and threatened to kill herself rather than go through with an arranged marriage. This is sadly quite common in rural parts of Yemen. 
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Jul 23, 2013 03:57
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Ardennes posted:I guess we shall see if that polling turns out to be true, granted it is probably also unclear how many support the current regime. Or potentially sympathetic parties who are within hearing-range of army automatic weapons. It's probably a good tactical decision to claim no sympathy with the people the army is clashing with.
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Jul 23, 2013 04:12
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Xandu posted:This is sadly quite common in rural parts of Yemen. That's a really powerful image. illrepute posted:Or potentially sympathetic parties who are within hearing-range of army automatic weapons. It's probably a good tactical decision to claim no sympathy with the people the army is clashing with. The total deaths from the protests that started almost a month ago is less than 100, mostly in hotspots of violent protests near military bases. I wouldn't exactly say the walls have ears just yet.
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Jul 23, 2013 04:23
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Volkerball posted:
Well that doesn't include deaths happening in real time, and I don't know less than 100 is really such a small number. I don't think people are being polled at gunpoint but it isn't real clear civil society is really functioning like it did which makes polling a lot more difficult. I would see plenty of Morsi supporters hanging up if someone calls them up to ask them their opinions. Also you need a reliable telephone to be polled, which in parts of rural Egypt isn't necessarily a given.
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Jul 23, 2013 04:32
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Mobile penetration in Egypt has surpassed 100%, which doesn't mean everyone has a phone, but it's a very high percentage. edit: But yeah, people being afraid to give their opinions is a real concern
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Jul 23, 2013 04:34
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Ardennes posted:Well that doesn't include deaths happening in real time, and I don't know less than 100 is really such a small number. I don't think people are being polled at gunpoint but it isn't real clear civil society is really functioning like it did which makes polling a lot more difficult. I would see plenty of Morsi supporters hanging up if someone calls them up to ask them their opinions. Also you need a reliable telephone to be polled, which in parts of rural Egypt isn't necessarily a given. That was all I was trying to make clear. 100 is a pretty small number in context with similar events throughout the region, but there have also been a lot of wounded and arrests alongside it. I agree with you that the poll could be subjective given the difficulties that would arise in trying to do it, but it's something.
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Jul 23, 2013 04:37
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Xandu posted:Mobile penetration in Egypt has surpassed 100%, which doesn't mean everyone has a phone, but it's a very high percentage. Even with high mobile penetration, it is very possible there are still considerable class/regional differences on responses. Even if you technically have a phone, you may not have enough credit or be willing to spend incoming credit on call (if that charge exists). Not to mention an interview takes time. I think it a fair thing to considered, considering how extreme some of the poverty is in Egypt. Also, to be frank, if I was a Morsi supporter, I don't know how candid I would be on the phone at this point even there wasn't a direct threat to myself.
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Jul 23, 2013 04:40
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Ardennes posted:Even with high mobile penetration, it is very possible there are still considerable class/regional differences on responses. Even if you technically have a phone, you may not have enough credit or be willing to spend incoming credit on call (if that charge exists). Not to mention an interview takes time. I think it a fair thing to considered, considering how extreme some of the poverty is in Egypt. Yeah, they're using telephone interviewing cause it's way cheaper/faster, but the standard for the region (outside the Gulf) is still face to face because of issues you're mentioning. I would be curious what they think of the coup/anti-Morsi protesters, and I"m surprised that wasn't asked. One thing to keep in mind though is telephone can be a lot more anonymous, and people might feel more comfortable admitting this stuff over the phone than when someone comes to their house and asks the same question. You can make the argument either way.
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Jul 23, 2013 04:42
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Xandu posted:Yeah, they're using telephone interviewing cause it's way cheaper/faster, but the standard for the region (outside the Gulf) is still face to face because of issues you're mentioning. I would be curious what they think of the coup/anti-Morsi protesters, and I"m surprised that wasn't asked. Granted, I think the split between telephone/in person polling might be when there is an issue that causes tension within the family ie a wife doesn't want to say something in ear shot of her husband. In this case, it might just be more generalized paranoia where there might be considerable distrust that "anonymity" is that real. Anyway, lets say even if the clear majority oppose the current protesters, there is easily enough of a real split in Egyptian society to be very problematic. I guess the current game plan is to live on aid from the Saudis/UAE but at best that seems a very short term solution.
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Jul 23, 2013 04:57
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Ardennes posted:Granted, I think the split between telephone/in person polling might be when there is an issue that causes tension within the family ie a wife doesn't want to say something in ear shot of her husband. In this case, it might just be more generalized paranoia where there might be considerable distrust that "anonymity" is that real. Yep, and when possible you try to train interviewers to isolate the subject from family members, but that doesn't always happen. Or you'll go to a house and maybe the man will be like "oh no, don't interview her, she doesn't know anything, interview me" and interviewers don't always do things randomly. It's hard to get good data. Sorry for sperging out, used to work in the field (though not in Egypt), and there's definitely a lot of issues that make polling in this region complicated.
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Jul 23, 2013 05:01
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Xandu posted:Yep, and when possible you try to train interviewers to isolate the subject from family members, but that doesn't always happen. Or you'll go to a house and maybe the man will be like "oh no, don't interview her, she doesn't know anything, interview me" and interviewers don't always do things randomly. It's hard to get good data. Sorry for sperging out, used to work in the field (though not in Egypt), and there's definitely a lot of issues that make polling in this region complicated. Yeah, which is general why polling in developing countries, especially with rising social turmoil, have more erratic polling even if there isn't necessarily purposeful bias. Anyway, it will be interesting to see how wide these protests and how long they go on, although even then there is a statistic war over how big the protests actually are.
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Jul 23, 2013 05:14
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Doesn't the Alex Jones crowd throw around a poll that 'proves' most Syrians support Assad? How one could do accurate polling during a civil war doesn't occur to them.
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Jul 23, 2013 05:56
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^^^^Egypt is one thing when it comes to the accuracy of polls, but Syria is a whole different animal. Oh man. I'm not one to make light of Syria, but if the one time a libertarian manages to entangle himself into something that actually affects public policy, he starts a full-on proxy war, I will die laughing. quote:President Obama’s scheduled trip to Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in September is in limbo because of uncertainty surrounding National Security Agency leaker Edward Snowden, who fled to Russia and is seeking asylum there. http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2013-07-18/politics/40653161_1_edward-snowden-president-obama-obama-putin
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Jul 23, 2013 07:55
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Yeah, I guess it is tangentially related but Obama's nominee for UN envoy called Russia, Cuba, Venezuela and Iran "repressive countries" in which civil rights crackdowns need to be contested. It is a bit ridiculous considering the US' record at the moment. Putin's Russia is pretty repressive but so is China. Not to mention Iran just elected a more moderate president, and Venezuela has internationally approved elections. I guess Cuba is just evil because they're commies without not enough sweatshops to care about.
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Jul 23, 2013 08:12
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Been waiting on this one. VICE sent a reporter to Cairo as soon as they found out about the military's ultimatum. He bounces between pro and anti Morsi protests prior to the statement, and afterwards. They've been hyping this one up for a while. VICE is always open for interpretation, because their niche seems to be going into crazy poo poo that no one else wants to film in, but they usually present some compelling things. This one is pretty damning so far.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y2yaNhK4PCE
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Jul 23, 2013 09:39
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, I guess it is tangentially related but Obama's nominee for UN envoy called Russia, Cuba, Venezuela and Iran "repressive countries" in which civil rights crackdowns need to be contested. It is a bit ridiculous considering the US' record at the moment. Putin's Russia is pretty repressive but so is China. Uh, Cuba is quite repressive.
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Jul 23, 2013 15:10
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Yea he called objectively repressive countries repressive, I don't get how the US not being perfect makes that wrong.
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Jul 23, 2013 15:21
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Tatum Girlparts posted:Yea he called objectively repressive countries repressive, I don't get how the US not being perfect makes that wrong. I think he means less the US not being perfect, and more the US being totally fine with repression in China, and not calling them out at the same time.
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Jul 23, 2013 15:35
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Gozinbulx posted:Uh, Cuba is quite repressive. I think it is quite overstated, it is a one party state but I don't see it being more repressive than China or Vietnam, probably less so in fact. quote:Yea he called objectively repressive countries repressive, I don't get how the US not being perfect makes that wrong. The US is very far from "perfect" at this point, and you could easily argue our electoral process is more biased than Venezuela. If you are going to "contest" repression then it might make sense you start at home first rather than picking random countries you don't like and paint them with a broad brush. I still don't see the reasoning for Venezuela. Of course you could also argue that the US didn't see to have that much trouble with Putin's repression for years, and that Cuba's relatively repression was directly caused by the actions of the United States. quote:I think he means less the US not being perfect, and more the US being totally fine with repression in China, and not calling them out at the same time. It is more just the US being hypocritical to the extreme and is completely untrustworthy, why should we trust the US at all to challenge "repression"? Especially in a country like Venezuela with free elections? Also to bring it around, Egypt's new government has been pretty repressive on its own, I guess it didn't make the list.
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Jul 23, 2013 16:24
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So this happened.. http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/22/us-iraq-violence-idUSBRE96L0RM20130722 quote:(Reuters) - Hundreds of convicts, including senior members of al Qaeda, broke out of Iraq's Abu Ghraib jail as comrades launched a military-style assault to free them, authorities said on Monday.
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Jul 23, 2013 16:40
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According to Human Rights Watch violent Attacks on Egyptian Copts have been on the rise, and security forces have done little to protect them: http://www.hrw.org/news/2013/07/23/egypt-sectarian-attacks-amid-political-crisis
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Jul 23, 2013 17:31
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Xandu posted:This is sadly quite common in rural parts of Yemen. I don't get it, it's just a couple of guys out with their daughters... Oh... Oh 
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Jul 23, 2013 22:37
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