Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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Zuhzuhzombie!!: Apr 17, 2008; FACTS ARE A CONSPIRACY BY THE CAPITALIST OPRESSOR

Gen. Ripper posted:

If you have something wrong with Assad you totally wanna bomb the poo poo out of Syria amirite

I'm sorry. I thought maybe you had a policy that consisted in something more than "Oh well that sucks".

# ? Aug 23, 2013 03:44

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 07:49

sexpig by night: Sep 8, 2011; by Azathoth

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

I'm sorry. I thought maybe you had a policy that consisted in something more than "Oh well that sucks".

It's either bombs or nothing?

# ? Aug 23, 2013 03:48

Blackbird Fly: Mar 8, 2011; by toby

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

I'm sorry. I thought maybe you had a policy that consisted in something more than "Oh well that sucks".

The SA Forums is not advising the President on his foreign policy matters, so don't freak out. The posters here also are working with limited data and can only make arguments based on the knowledge available.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 03:49

Blackbird Fly: Mar 8, 2011; by toby

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

I'm sorry. I thought maybe you had a policy that consisted in something more than "Oh well that sucks".

We'll notify you when we have our DoD plan set up. I've got Hagel on Line 1 and Kerry on Line 2.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 03:51

Zuhzuhzombie!!: Apr 17, 2008; FACTS ARE A CONSPIRACY BY THE CAPITALIST OPRESSOR

Tatum Girlparts posted:

It's either bombs or nothing?

I'm asking you to make a suggestion. America and the UN has a terrible track record. Some folks in this thread tend to have a very difficult time understanding that, or accepting the fact that UN involvement doesn't make the problem better.

Actually, I think the saddest part is the farce that Ban Ki Moon doesn't think the problems faced in Syria constituted a crisis of humanity until gas attacks. As someone else pointed out a few posts ago, it's a weird contrast to say that about the supposed victims of an Assad gas attacks were victims of crimes against humanity, but the other dozens of thousands are not.

quote:

We'll notify you when we have our DoD plan set up.

Oh, so we're back to "It'll be better this time. Probably."

You gonna tell us that they'll treat us as liberators next?

# ? Aug 23, 2013 03:52

OwlBot 2000: Jun 1, 2009

Regarding that poll: it's good to question the methodology to an extent, but at some point you should ask yourselves whether you truly believe it's a bad poll, or if you just don't want to believe that tens of millions of people are perfectly OK with their countrymen being slaughtered, only two years after big changes that seemed like they would bring everyone together.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 03:55

Blackbird Fly: Mar 8, 2011; by toby

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

Oh, so we're back to "It'll be better this time. Probably."

You gonna tell us that they'll treat us as liberators next?

I'm saying that there is no consensus on what to do in these forums, with many posters either being ambivalent or opposed. I'm not sure about the situation myself. Make strawmen all you want though.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 03:59

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

I've seen speculation from veteran journos lately that there will be some sort of coalition to exact punitive airstrikes against the Assad regime, a la NATO's 1995 Bosnia intervention. This is based on their part from informed speculation as well as Kerry's diplomatic call list. Really wish I knew where to find that/if it's publicly available.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:01

Worthleast: Nov 25, 2012; Possibly the only speedboat jumps I've planned

Do we know anything about the whereabouts and condition of Morsi since the Coup?

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:15

Gen. Ripper: Jan 12, 2013

Worthleast posted:

Do we know anything about the whereabouts and condition of Morsi since the Coup?

He's (probably) dead Jim.

:commissar:

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:16

Zuhzuhzombie!!: Apr 17, 2008; FACTS ARE A CONSPIRACY BY THE CAPITALIST OPRESSOR

Blackbird Fly posted:

I'm saying that there is no consensus on what to do in these forums, with many posters either being ambivalent or opposed. I'm not sure about the situation myself. Make strawmen all you want though.

The UN has a lovely record with intervention. I poo poo talked Ban Ki Moon. Someone in this thread, for reasons unknown to me, rushed to his defense, and characterized opposition to Ban Ki Moon as being "morally bankrupt". I'm not building strawmen here.

If someone has a realistic suggestion of what the UN can/would do to resolve the situation with less bloodshed, I'm all ears. But there's a problem if you wanna keep it realistic.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:16

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

I don't think who the UNSG is affects anything in terms of what the UN actually does.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:17

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

Probably what will happen is that there will be a punitive expedition against Assad then a 2nd round of bombing campaigns and/or proxy war against JAN and other Islamist groups using the FSA and former members of the regime.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:27

Charliegrs: Aug 10, 2009

Maybe it would be a good idea for the US and NATO to bomb the hell out of Syria's air force, WMD installations (unless that spreads the agents and kills tons of innocents in the process), governmental and military buildings etc. But not arm the rebels just yet. Because obviously it would be a really dumb idea to arm the Al Nusra Front and other jihadi dirtbags. Then, maybe the rebels might get the upper hand and finally hang Assad from a lightpole. And when phase 2 of the civil war begins, we arm the GOOD rebels who will be fighting the jihadis. I mean hopefully there will be some good rebels....

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:28

Blackbird Fly: Mar 8, 2011; by toby

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

The UN has a lovely record with intervention. I poo poo talked Ban Ki Moon. Someone in this thread, for reasons unknown to me, rushed to his defense, and characterized opposition to Ban Ki Moon as being "morally bankrupt". I'm not building strawmen here.

I didn't see Ban Ki-moon say anything about bombing. He was making a statement. The gas attacks were crime against humanity. It seems to me you jumped to conclusions about what people were thinking, and I jumped to conclusions about your intentions.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:31

Blackbird Fly: Mar 8, 2011; by toby

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

If someone has a realistic suggestion of what the UN can/would do to resolve the situation with less bloodshed, I'm all ears. But there's a problem if you wanna keep it realistic.

~~What do you think of the UN forcing a settlement between the rebels and Assad a la Bosnia, since removing Assad would probably destabilize the region and prolong the conflict?~~
I'll let Omi's post speak for itself, crossquoting from GBS:

Omi-Polari posted:

Which is why you don't intervene to depose Assad, similar to how NATO did not intervene to depose Milosevic after Srebrenica. There's a similar relationship between Moscow and Damascus as there was Moscow and Belgrade.

You intervene to force a negotiated settlement and end the cycle of violence which will continue to escalate if nothing changes. This may include a bi-national federal state, maybe partition. Neither side has an incentive to stop fighting if they think they'll be slaughtered when they put down their weapons. And you know, there is a risk that it could escalate into regime change. It's messy but that's because this is complicated.

I'm still not sure it's a good idea. But this is how I'd calculate what an intervention might look like. It might be too late for negotiated settlement, for instance.

Blackbird Fly fucked around with this message at 06:07 on Aug 23, 2013

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:43

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

The UN isn't there to go and invade anybody. They're there to be a (theoretically) neutral table where the world's diplomats can sit and decide to have someone (or a group of someones) invade. The peacekeepers are basically human shields and militarized police and aren't going to get deployed to depose anyone. That kind of poo poo is for NATO or some ad-hoc group of countries. In Syria, peacekeepers would do poo poo like make sure elections aren't all hosed, or if poo poo is REAL bad, make sure a newly partitioned Syria doesn't just erupt into war over the borders. They're not something you use in or for any kind of war unless you're including the reconstruction afterwards.

FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 04:51 on Aug 23, 2013

# ? Aug 23, 2013 04:47

Aurubin: Mar 17, 2011

So my Twitter is alight with retweets of a video in Arabic that basically says the FSA "leadership" is quitting. Will this affect anything? Christ I cannot believe how blase I sound about a humanitarian crisis.

The video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBNHqL44mcM&feature=youtu.be

# ? Aug 23, 2013 05:14

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

So in the background of all this, four rockets struck northern Israel from Lebanon yesterday and Israel retaliated two hours ago with airstrikes against a target south of Beirut. And, as of a few minutes ago, several people have reported a large explosion in Beirut, possibly in the upscale Hamra neighborhood.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 05:30

Sergg: Sep 19, 2005; I was rejected by the:

Aurubin posted:

So my Twitter is alight with retweets of a video in Arabic that basically says the FSA "leadership" is quitting. Will this affect anything? Christ I cannot believe how blase I sound about a humanitarian crisis.

The video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZBNHqL44mcM&feature=youtu.be

Nope. Checked The 47th, the heads are not resigning, they are condemning world inaction and calling for more help.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 05:37

Ardennes: May 12, 2002

OwlBot 2000 posted:

Regarding that poll: it's good to question the methodology to an extent, but at some point you should ask yourselves whether you truly believe it's a bad poll, or if you just don't want to believe that tens of millions of people are perfectly OK with their countrymen being slaughtered, only two years after big changes that seemed like they would bring everyone together.

Well the fact that the polls are so far off compared to the electoral results of 2011-2012 does require at least some skepticism. People don't really mention the legislative elections much but in the last Shura council election in February 2012, the FJP (MB) got 44.50% of the votes and Al Nour (Salafists) got got 28.42% of the vote.

Some significant gaps in the statistics highlights something else may be going on. While the Salafists may not support the MB, in the above polls they seem to have almost disappeared as a group. Where are the Salafists in these polls? Even if the MB has shattered and most of them have given up, the Salafists would still have their own grudges against the establishment.

Ardennes fucked around with this message at 07:08 on Aug 23, 2013

# ? Aug 23, 2013 07:04

Aurubin: Mar 17, 2011

So what's the potential for any of this to pan out? And if it does, how long before Israel is building settlements in independent Palestine?

Abbas: Peace deal will mean end of Palestinian demands of Israel

Haaretz posted:

Palestinian president says wouldn't rule out some Jewish settlements remaining under Palestinian sovereignty; adds that Palestinians don't aspire to return to Haifa, Acre and Safed.

RAMALLAH - Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas wants a negotiated peace agreement to include a clause stating that the conflict with Israel is over, he told a delegation from the Israeli left-wing party Meretz, headed by MK Zahava Gal-On, on Thursday.

�People say that after signing a peace agreement we will still demand Haifa, Acre and Safed,� he said. �That is not true. Signing the agreement will signal the end of the conflict.�

Abbas further clarified that in any peace settlement the Palestinian state would agree to be demilitarized. He noted that during earlier negotiations with former Prime Minister Ehud Olmert there was an agreement to post American soldiers in the West Bank to help maintain security.

�We don�t need planes or missiles. All we need is a strong police force,� said Abbas. �On the other hand, we want sovereignty and independence. I was criticized for saying that I don�t want a single Israeli soldier or settler in the Palestinian state. I meant any Israeli that is part of the occupation. I didn�t mean that I don�t want Jews or Israelis in the Palestinian state. We�ll welcome them as tourists or as people coming to do business. We just don�t want occupation forces.�

The meeting with Abbas was attended by Meretz�s Knesset members � Ilan Gilon, Nitzan Horowitz, Michal Rosin, Issawi Freij, Tamar Zandberg and Gal-On. The meeting was also attended by former ambassador to South Africa Ilan Baruch, Gal-On�s diplomatic advisor who is also responsible for the party�s contact with the Palestinian Authority. During the meeting, Gal-On told Abbas that Meretz would provide Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with a �safety net� if he makes progress toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Abbas told the Meretz MKs that he is unhappy with the slow pace of the negotiations with Israel, and that Israel has been refusing the Palestinian proposal that the teams hold intensive peace talks with meetings at least every two days.

Abbas said that in the talks he held with Olmert in 2007-2008, the two met every two weeks with the two sides� negotiating teams holding intensive negotiations between the meetings. In this round of talks, Abbas said, such negotiations are not being held in this manner.

�I hope we can accelerate the rate of the meetings,� Abbas told the Meretz delegates. �We wanted the meetings between negotiating teams to take place every day or every second day, and not once a week or every 10 days like the Israelis want. I don�t know why they don�t want to. We don�t have much time.�

Abbas said that the third round of talks between Israel and the Palestinians that took place on Tuesday was held in Jericho, and not Jerusalem as Israel claimed. He added that the Palestinians wanted United States envoy Martin Indyk to take an active role in the talks and be present at the negotiations, but Israel opposed this. �We decided not to make a big deal of it,� he said.

According to Abbas, there were no advances in the negotiations during the last three rounds of negotiations and the talks are still in their preliminary stages. He stated that each side was slated to present its opening positions regarding each of the core issues � borders, security, Jerusalem, refugees, settlements and water � after which the two sides will enter detailed discussions on each of the issues.

�I know that in the beginning each side sticks to its starting positions but we hope that later on we make advances,� Abbas said. �I can�t say that I�m optimistic, but I hope we aren�t just wasting our time. In the end, the negotiations may generate a dynamic of its own in a way that would create in each of the sides an interest in reaching an agreement and a fear of what would happen if no agreement is reached.�

Abbas stressed that despite the fact that the talks are taking place between Justice Minister Tzipi Livni and Palestinian chief negotiator Saeb Erekat at this stage, he has no problem with nor any reservations regarding meeting with Netanyahu.

Abbas stressed that he was aware that many in the Likud leadership, as well as that of the Habayit Hayehudi, are opposed to the establishment of a Palestinian state.

�I don�t know what Netanyahu�s intentions are and what�s going through his head�, he said, �but I have my opposition too and there were demonstrations here against the renewal of negotiations. I respect the demonstrators but I�m determined and serious about making progress towards achieving peace. Without peace there will be tragedies here. There is an opportunity now. Look at what�s happening all around us. Everything is in turmoil. Now is the time to reach an agreement.� Abbas said that he intends to put any agreement to a referendum and that he�s convinced that a majority of Palestinians will support it.

Abbas noted that the negotiations have to deal with future borders of the Palestinian state. He said that Palestinians would accept changes to the 1967 borders as part of land swap agreements. �Let�s lay down a map and start marking the borders,� he said.

The Palestinian president was asked during the meeting whether he would agree to some Jewish settlements remaining under Palestinian sovereignty after the signing of a peace agreement. In reply, he did not dismiss this possibility. �These are details that need to be discussed. Every topic is up for negotiation, keeping an open mind. I�m not ready at this point to discuss specific settlements. Let�s begin with demarcating the borders and then we can see.�

Abbas said that his goal was to reach a final agreement and not an interim one. He would, however, be willing to implement any agreement in stages. �In the absence of a final agreement that ends the conflict different elements will look for ways to sabotage things and derail the process�, he said. �I don�t want a Palestinian state with temporary borders but I�m willing to implement the process in stages. We�ll sign an agreement and implement it over several years just like you did in the agreement with Egypt over the withdrawal from Sinai.�

# ? Aug 23, 2013 07:12

Blackbird Fly: Mar 8, 2011; by toby

Aurubin posted:

So what's the potential for any of this to pan out? And if it does, how long before Israel is building settlements in independent Palestine?

Abbas: Peace deal will mean end of Palestinian demands of Israel

What could get Hamas to go along?

# ? Aug 23, 2013 08:43

Sucrose: Dec 9, 2009

Blackbird Fly posted:

What could get Hamas to go along?

Is Gaza even included in this?

# ? Aug 23, 2013 09:06

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Sergg posted:

Nope. Checked The 47th, the heads are not resigning, they are condemning world inaction and calling for more help.

Yeah, but they definitely implied that they can get chemical weapons, and now that the cats out of the bag and no one seemed to give a poo poo, those are on the table as a weapon now. Soooo that could be bad.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 09:30

Muffiner: Sep 16, 2009

Volkerball posted:

Yeah, but they definitely implied that they can get chemical weapons, and now that the cats out of the bag and no one seemed to give a poo poo, those are on the table as a weapon now. Soooo that could be bad.

They threatened to resign if no support comes at 3:45.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 09:46

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

Xandu posted:

Caro's a pretty small dude IIRC, so the last bit might not make sense.

Good point. This lead me to learn, though, via the CPJ and State that several Americans are missing and presumed detained in Syria aside from James Foley and Austin Tice, but there is a media blackout per family and government requests.

And, cross-posting from the GBS gas attack thread, it appears Russia is now calling on the rebels and Syrian government to both allow UN inspectors access to the site, per Reuters.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 09:48

RandomPauI: Nov 24, 2006; Grimey Drawer

Obama gave an interview with CNN, to sum it up: the incident is a big event, the US is gathering information about this particular event, we're talking to the international community, we're pushing for actions from the UN, we're calling for Assad to cooperate. This is also a very complicated sectarian conflict and I have to make decisions based on our best long term national interests. The US won't act militarily without UN authority and international cooperation.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 11:19

Blackbird Fly: Mar 8, 2011; by toby

RandomPauI posted:

The US won't act militarily without UN authority and international cooperation.

That probably means that the US won't engage in military action, unless for some reason Russia finds Syria to be a liability, which is unlikely.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 11:26

Loving Africa Chaps: Dec 3, 2007; We had not left it yet, but when I would wake in the night, I would lie, listening, homesick for it already.

Charliegrs posted:

Maybe it would be a good idea for the US and NATO to bomb the hell out of Syria's air force, WMD installations (unless that spreads the agents and kills tons of innocents in the process), governmental and military buildings etc. But not arm the rebels just yet. Because obviously it would be a really dumb idea to arm the Al Nusra Front and other jihadi dirtbags. Then, maybe the rebels might get the upper hand and finally hang Assad from a lightpole. And when phase 2 of the civil war begins, we arm the GOOD rebels who will be fighting the jihadis. I mean hopefully there will be some good rebels....

This ship has sailed mate, the rebels have been receiving arms for some time now.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 11:52

Sucrose: Dec 9, 2009

RandomPauI posted:

The US won't act militarily without UN authority and international cooperation.

Well, this could be an easy out.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 11:54

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

Dual bombings at mosques during Friday prayers in Tripoli kill at least 20. I'm almost irrationally afraid of Assad (and rebel allies) continuing to stir poo poo up in Lebanon as the situation continues to devolve. The gun battles over the past year have been bad enough, but it's something like three or four car bombings in the past two months at this point.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 13:42

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

Aurubin posted:

So what's the potential for any of this to pan out? And if it does, how long before Israel is building settlements in independent Palestine?

Abbas: Peace deal will mean end of Palestinian demands of Israel

Netanyahu's been no better than Hamas when it comes to progress towards peace. As long as assholes demand a winner and a loser it's going to be drat near impossible. People like Bibi kill people like Rabin, and people like Hamas (I don't know Hamas' leadership at the moment) kill people like Sadat. With any luck the third time will be a charm but I doubt it. Things are way beyond hosed up and bullshit. :smith:

# ? Aug 23, 2013 14:08

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

MothraAttack posted:

Dual bombings at mosques during Friday prayers in Tripoli kill at least 20. I'm almost irrationally afraid of Assad (and rebel allies) continuing to stir poo poo up in Lebanon as the situation continues to devolve. The gun battles over the past year have been bad enough, but it's something like three or four car bombings in the past two months at this point.

Probably a reaction to what happened in Beirut

# ? Aug 23, 2013 14:09

Warcabbit: Apr 26, 2008; Wedge Regret

Sucrose posted:

Is Gaza even included in this?

I've said for years, only way to do this is a three-state solution. Handle one end, then handle the other.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 14:16

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

Warcabbit posted:

I've said for years, only way to do this is a three-state solution. Handle one end, then handle the other.

I wonder if Egypt would be willing to aid the formation of an independent Gaza state. All the military action has really taken its toll and I strongly doubt Israel under Netanyahu (or any Likud government) would even hesitate to wash their hands of it out of spite before the ink dried on an agreement - despite their culpability in reducing the place to rubble in retaliation for Hamas. I understand the reasoning, it's generally frowned upon when you have a "corridor" situation as it would be with the WB being essentially connected to Gaza by a highway-sized strip of territory that would be de facto Israel-controlled anyway. I can understand a desire, though, to have a single Palestinian state instead of Palestine and Gaza. Doing so means basically sawing Israel off at the Negev, but isn't it pretty desolate until you get to the water anyway? Not much in terms of strategic or economic importance to Israel, I mean. Is that city (Eilat, I think? Off the top of my head - on my phone I lose my post if I check

) down there a big trade port, or is it mainly a tourism place?

# ? Aug 23, 2013 15:29

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I'm doing a live segment on Sky News in the UK for their bulletin in about 15 minutes, talking about the chemical weapon attacks. �100 for 4 minutes work, nice.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 16:14

Miltank: Dec 27, 2009; by XyloJW

Brown Moses posted:

I'm doing a live segment on Sky News in the UK for their bulletin in about 15 minutes, talking about the chemical weapon attacks. �100 for 4 minutes work, nice.

I know its last minute but do you know of a place to stream?

Found it! http://news.sky.com/us/

Miltank fucked around with this message at 16:22 on Aug 23, 2013

# ? Aug 23, 2013 16:18

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

Hope you enjoyed that, and my garden.

# ? Aug 23, 2013 16:40

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# ? Jun 2, 2024 07:49

Nckdictator: Sep 8, 2006; Just..someone

The Entire Universe posted:

I wonder if Egypt would be willing to aid the formation of an independent Gaza state. All the military action has really taken its toll and I strongly doubt Israel under Netanyahu (or any Likud government) would even hesitate to wash their hands of it out of spite before the ink dried on an agreement - despite their culpability in reducing the place to rubble in retaliation for Hamas. I understand the reasoning, it's generally frowned upon when you have a "corridor" situation as it would be with the WB being essentially connected to Gaza by a highway-sized strip of territory that would be de facto Israel-controlled anyway. I can understand a desire, though, to have a single Palestinian state instead of Palestine and Gaza. Doing so means basically sawing Israel off at the Negev, but isn't it pretty desolate until you get to the water anyway? Not much in terms of strategic or economic importance to Israel, I mean. Is that city (Eilat, I think? Off the top of my head - on my phone I lose my post if I check ) down there a big trade port, or is it mainly a tourism place?

I can't imagine Israel would want to give this up.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negev_Nuclear_Research_Center

# ? Aug 23, 2013 17:29

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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