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sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Gnoll Pie posted:

Chemical Weapons experts say there are "no hard facts". It's baffling how certain some people are that the bombs need to start falling right now:

^
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2013/aug/29/mps-debate-syria-live-blog#block-521f7b90e4b01790173db521

Also, it makes me very suspicious that Cameron is accusing people of giving "succour" to Assad, why you'd think he was trying to whip up war hysteria or something:

^
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/aug/29/syria-ed-miliband-succour-assad

Again (didn't you post this a page or so ago?) the UN report is literally forbidden from studying who did it, so of course there's no smoking gun that says '100% sure Assad did this'.

There are a lot of smoking guns saying 'ok, SOMEONE with control of the military did this!'

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Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

quote:

Also, it makes me very suspicious that Cameron is accusing people of giving "succour" to Assad, why you'd think he was trying to whip up war hysteria or something:
Well at least Milliband will be happy: it's not the people from his own party who are calling him a worthless oval office this week.

In France, the main political opposition against the war are the zombie corpse they still call the communist party and Marine Le Pen and the National Front.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Brown Moses posted:

Something rather interesting about those munitions I've been examining, it seems while they are both about 333mm wide, which fits with them being launched from the Falaq-2, the heavier high explosive model has a longer tail section, while the "other" warhead type has a shorter tail, about 2 meters to 1.5 meters. This suggests a larger rocket motor is being used for the high explosive model.

These are the DIY missiles involved in the gas attack that you posted about before?

Grayly Squirrel
Apr 10, 2008

Toplowtech posted:

In France, the main political opposition against the war are the zombie corpse they still call the communist party and Marine Le Pen and the National Front.

France loves any chance to show they can still put boot to rear end on the global stage.

Sergg
Sep 19, 2005

I was rejected by the:

http://freebeacon.com/a-tour-of-syrias-chemical-weapons/

Can anyone locate these videos? They're supposed to be on Youtube, and they match exactly what we've seen in this thread.

Brown Moses, I'm looking at you, pal.

quote:

Rebels in Syria have disclosed new details on the Damascus regime’s chemical weapons storage sites, as a military defector last week outlined plans by Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad to use the deadly arms.

U.S. intelligence agencies recently reported on several chemical arms sites in Syria that were revealed in five YouTube videos uploaded to the Internet in July, according to officials familiar with the recordings.

The posting of the videos coincided with the defection in July of Maj. Gen. Adnan Sillu, head of Syria’s chemical arms forces, who told Britain’s Times of London newspaper that Assad will use the arms to stay in power and that his regime has discussed handing over some of the weapons to the Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah.

The five rebel videos use Google Earth maps software to show chemical arms storage and production plants—some hidden in underground bunkers—and Scud missiles armed with chemical warheads, according to U.S. officials who have analyzed the videos.

They are likely to be used by U.S. or Israeli military planners in any future attacks designed to eliminate Syria’s chemical arms stockpiles.

Israel’s military said in June that it would be forced to act against Syria to prevent advanced rockets and chemical arms from falling into the hands of terrorists like Hezbollah.

The 10-minute-long videos were judged to be accurate by U.S. officials in describing suspected hidden Syrian chemical facilities.

One video reveals a major chemical weapons facility in the downtown area of the Syrian capital of Damascus located a short distance by underground tunnel from al-Mazzeh military airfield in southwestern Damascus.

The tunnel can accommodate tractor trailer-sized trucks and exits several buildings on the base. An Arabic-speaking narrator on the video shows the path of the tunnel leading to an underground storage area north and east of the airfield.

The narrator said the roof of the bunker includes 45 feet of reinforced concrete designed to withstand a strike from U.S. Tomahawk missiles. The facility is said to contain a variety of chemical weapons, from hand grenades filled with the blistering agent mustard to chemical weapons rockets of differing sizes.

The video shows an aircraft runway near the facility, which is called Zone 86, and housing used by senior Syrian military officers and members of the paramilitary Shabiha.

The video also states that a building near Saraya traffic circle is a residence for foreign technicians from Iran and North Korea.

The Sanid News Network, a pro-rebel news outlet, posted the videos online.

A second video reveals what is believed to be the largest storage facility for Syria’s biological and chemical weapons, located in a residential area north of Damascus between Al-Tal and Aysh Wurur.

Roads are identified in the video that lead to tunnels built into mountains that stretch 1,500 feet inside the mountain and are hardened against attack.

The narrator of this video, identified as Abu Saqr, stated that he has been inside one of the tunnels that had separate storage rooms sealed with heavy metal doors.

Among the chemical agents stored in the bunker are mustard agent and cyanide and nerve agents Sarin, Tabun, and the ultra-lethal VX nerve agent.

The reported biological weapons at the facility include weaponized “bacteria and viruses” that can be transmitted to populations through food, water, and soil.

The video narrator also asserted that Iran is storing enriched uranium in the underground facility.

A third video around eight minutes long purports to show a Syrian chemical weapons factory located near al-Dumayr.

The factory is located east of al-Dumayr on the north side of a highway underneath an earthen berm 30 to 45 feet high. Roads are shown exiting the berms, and camouflaged tanks are nearby.

The plant has a high wall around its perimeter and, according to the video narrator, is operated by Iranians and North Koreans.

An underground storage facility is located nearby the plant.

Another of the rebel videos includes images of Syrian short-range Scud missiles at a base southwest of al-Qutayfah that the narrator asserts are armed with chemical weapons warheads. The missiles are shown loaded on trailers with a nearby underground storage facility for the chemical arms.

The last video uses Google Earth to identify what it claims to be an underground chemical weapons factory near the military airbase at al-Nasiriyah. It was described as an underground chemical weapons production facility and research center.

The Syrian defector, Maj. Gen. Sillu, stated in the interview published Sept. 19 that he took part in leadership discussions about using chemical weapons against civilians.

“We were in a serious discussion about the use of chemical weapons, including how we would use them and in what areas,” Sillu said. “We discussed this as a last resort—such as if the regime lost control of an important area such as Aleppo.”

Sillu said the meeting held at a Syrian chemical arms center five miles south of Damascus prompted him to defect because he opposed the use of the deadly arms against the population.

Sillu, now residing in Turkey, also said the Syrian regime considered handing over chemical weapons to Hezbollah.

“They wanted to place warheads with the chemical weapons on missiles—to transfer them this way to Hezbollah. It was for use against Israel, of course,” he said.

The Damascus government in the past had opposed supplying chemical arms to Hezbollah over concerns about the fallout from arming the terrorist group, he said.

“Now, if they have nothing to lose why not share these weapons? If a war starts between Hezbollah and Israel it will be only good for Syria,” Sillu said.

Sillu said members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps took part in meetings on chemical weapons.

“They were always coming to visit and to advise. They were always sending us scientists and bringing our scientists to them,” he said. “They were also involved on the political side of how to use the chemical weapons.”

The CIA in the past has said that reports of Syrian development of chemical and biological arms were exaggerated.

In 2003 the agency blocked congressional testimony by then-Undersecretary of State John Bolton that was to express new concerns about Syrian chemical and biological weapons.

Since that time, the Syrian program has continued to grow.

Israel also attacked a nuclear plant in Syria at al-Kibar that was being built with North Korean assistance.

I'm skeptical of the claims of the defectors about supplying them to Hezbollah and such, and about storing enriched Uranium for Iran. But on the other hand, their testimony about the munitions bunkers matches the reported firing locations of those chem rockets.

Cippalippus
Mar 31, 2007

Out for a ride, chillin out w/ a couple of friends. Going to be back for dinner
The situation in Syria is depressing to say the least. Neither of the sides can be relied upon or is internationally credible, and it's gonna be a bloodbath if a side wins, or also if one side doesn't win and the war just goes on.

Which means that it's in the interest of anyone to sit around a table to negotiate, cut the loose extremist ends from both sides, and try to move on. There was something similar in Lebanon when I was a child and somehow it worked, Syria is extremely more complicated but it's not a situation that can be solved with brute force (and an american intervention is just going to exacerbate the situation).

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Grayly Squirrel posted:

France loves any chance to show they can still put boot to rear end on the global stage.
Yes and that's totally why we were in the alliance of the willing in Irak with Bush.

Cippalippus
Mar 31, 2007

Out for a ride, chillin out w/ a couple of friends. Going to be back for dinner

Toplowtech posted:

Yes and that's totally why we were in the alliance of the willing in Irak with Bush.

You need to admit though, Hollande's popularity has been really low in the last year. My friends in Paris, who still voted for him, said that he looks really "weak".

Grayly Squirrel
Apr 10, 2008

Toplowtech posted:

Yes and that's totally why we were in the alliance of the willing in Irak with Bush.

I should have qualified that. France loves any justified chance to show they can still put boot to rear end on the global stage.

The Newman
Oct 17, 2003
unconstructive critic
Hey has anyone in this thread demonstrated how a cruise missile strike will improve the lots of the Syrian people? Just wondering how that benevolent series of explosions works exactly.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Postorder Trollet89 posted:

Last I checked dropping bombs on a soverign state is an act of war, ground troops or not. You don't have to agree with me but Russia just called an emergency UN security council meeting meeting over Syria. Non english source

An act of war is not a war, it's an act that the other party can use as justification to start a war. Since Assad has precisely zero capability to make aggressive moves against US forces, I'm not too worried about that.

Gnoll Pie posted:

Chemical Weapons experts say there are "no hard facts". It's baffling how certain some people are that the bombs need to start falling right now:

^
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/2013/aug/29/mps-debate-syria-live-blog#block-521f7b90e4b01790173db521

Of course there aren't hard facts. The nature of the battlefield means that there will never be 100% completely incontrovertible evidence of who used chemical weapons. It's practically impossible to prove beyond a shadow of a doubt.

The Newman posted:

Hey has anyone in this thread demonstrating how a cruise missile strike will improve the lots of the Syrian people? Just wondering how that benevolent series of explosions works exactly.

The strike isn't intended to improve the lots of the Syrian people, so I'm not sure why you would expect it to!

Grayly Squirrel
Apr 10, 2008

The Newman posted:

Hey has anyone in this thread demonstrating how a cruise missile strike will improve the lots of the Syrian people? Just wondering how that benevolent series of explosions works exactly.

Snark aside, its not supposed to. The given justification is to punish the Assad regime for using chemical weapons, and to maintain credibility when it comes to threatening other countries not to use chemical weapons.

If we cared about the Syrian people, something would have been done long ago.

The Newman
Oct 17, 2003
unconstructive critic

Main Paineframe posted:

The strike isn't intended to improve the lots of the Syrian people, so I'm not sure why you would expect it to!
Ah, good: the liberal humanitarian case for this strike is nil, just as I suspected.

Saint Celestine
Dec 17, 2008

Lay a fire within your soul and another between your hands, and let both be your weapons.
For one is faith and the other is victory and neither may ever be put out.

- Saint Sabbat, Lessons
Grimey Drawer

The Newman posted:

Hey has anyone in this thread demonstrated how a cruise missile strike will improve the lots of the Syrian people? Just wondering how that benevolent series of explosions works exactly.

Maybe they can load the cluster-bomb variant of the tomahawk with humanitarian aid and have it spread food packages over the refugee camps?

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Well depends on if you consider deterring chemical strikes against the Syrian people to improve their lots :iiam:

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Cippalippus posted:

You need to admit though, Hollande's popularity has been really low in the last year. My friends in Paris, who still voted for him, said that he looks really "weak".
Yes after the war in Mali didn't do anything to his popularity and the war in Libya didn't do anything positive to Sarkozy's popularity either, he is obviously doing if for the popularity. I mean we French are so bloodthirsty. Chirac's popularity was always low as poo poo even after his reelection in 2002 except when he opposed the Iraq war (at least until he hosed it up, like he did gently caress the Olympic bid for Paris up). The French are far more concerned with national political and economical problems and the only people here trying to gain some popularity out of the whole operation "kill Bashar and tell Vladimir to gently caress off" is Le Pen and the far left, really.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

Sergg posted:

http://freebeacon.com/a-tour-of-syrias-chemical-weapons/

Can anyone locate these videos? They're supposed to be on Youtube, and they match exactly what we've seen in this thread.

Brown Moses, I'm looking at you, pal.

I'm skeptical of the claims of the defectors about supplying them to Hezbollah and such, and about storing enriched Uranium for Iran. But on the other hand, their testimony about the munitions bunkers matches the reported firing locations of those chem rockets.

Secret underground tunnels from downtown to a military base designed to hide tractor-trailers full of chemical weapons, secret mountain tunnel complexes... I'm definitely getting an Iraq vibe from this article.

Could someone please tell me all about Assad's mobile bioweapons labs too? I almost have bingo.

Regarde Aduck
Oct 19, 2012

c l o u d k i t t e n
Grimey Drawer

Sergg posted:

http://freebeacon.com/a-tour-of-syrias-chemical-weapons/

Can anyone locate these videos? They're supposed to be on Youtube, and they match exactly what we've seen in this thread.

Brown Moses, I'm looking at you, pal.


I'm skeptical of the claims of the defectors about supplying them to Hezbollah and such, and about storing enriched Uranium for Iran. But on the other hand, their testimony about the munitions bunkers matches the reported firing locations of those chem rockets.

The most interesting thing to me about all this is who is siding with who. It seems the militia groups from neighboring countries (Hezbollah, Kurdish militias) are actually siding with the Assad regime. None of these paramilitary groups seem to actually trust or fight with the rebels. That's pretty loving worrying. Is it a case of "Assad is a bastard but these rebels are bad news for everyone" or is it a territory thing or what?

The Newman
Oct 17, 2003
unconstructive critic

Grayly Squirrel posted:

Snark aside, its not supposed to. The given justification is to punish the Assad regime for using chemical weapons, and to maintain credibility when it comes to threatening other countries not to use chemical weapons.

If we cared about the Syrian people, something would have been done long ago.
Let's break down this "punishing a dictator" meme. The last dictator we accused of having chemical weapons stockpiles got his regime invaded, and he was personally executed. Clearly, we sent a message, right?

If Assad were a rational actor, and expected a consistent response from the west, he would never even have these weapons. To use them would be suicidal.

So, a logical observer would observe that our strikes and invasions do not, in fact, deter future usage of these weapons.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

The Newman posted:

Hey has anyone in this thread demonstrated how a cruise missile strike will improve the lots of the Syrian people? Just wondering how that benevolent series of explosions works exactly.

Stops them from getting gassed. Maybe probably.

Cippalippus
Mar 31, 2007

Out for a ride, chillin out w/ a couple of friends. Going to be back for dinner

The Newman posted:

Hey has anyone in this thread demonstrated how a cruise missile strike will improve the lots of the Syrian people? Just wondering how that benevolent series of explosions works exactly.

It's like with children, you need to have them watch you to try to imitate you.
So they'll send a bunch of conventional missiles to show Syria how *really* civilized countries fight. Never mind that it will cost a lot of money and will just make people hate the USA more, without bringing any benefit to anyone! Gotta show'em how it's done :clint:

The Newman
Oct 17, 2003
unconstructive critic

Pimpmust posted:

Well depends on if you consider deterring chemical strikes against the Syrian people to improve their lots :iiam:
"It deters because we say it does!" - Dudes that executed the last dictator to be linked to chemical weapons

LP97S
Apr 25, 2008

Pimpmust posted:

Well depends on if you consider deterring chemical strikes against the Syrian people to improve their lots :iiam:

Assad stops using the one-off chemical weapons and continues to use the conventional weapons killing people for the last two years, progress! Hell, doesn't the whole Israeli-intercepted communications basically say this was some unit operating against general ROEs?

The Newman
Oct 17, 2003
unconstructive critic

Vladimir Putin posted:

Stops them from getting gassed. Maybe probably.

We aren't even attempting to target the stockpiles (because, good freaking luck)

Space Monster
Mar 13, 2009

Pimpmust posted:

Well depends on if you consider deterring chemical strikes against the Syrian people to improve their lots :iiam:

I think he was asking for an explanation of how a few cruise missiles would act as a serious deterrent to a brutal sociopath with nothing to lose.

Gucci Loafers
May 20, 2006

Ask yourself, do you really want to talk to pair of really nice gaudy shoes?


Didn't Israeli bomb a bunch of buildings inside of Syria known to have bio/chem weapons?

And if the US does bomb a bunch of chem/bio sites - that would still leave a stalemate?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Zeroisanumber posted:

These are the DIY missiles involved in the gas attack that you posted about before?

Yes, so here we have what I believe is a high explosive rocket, there's a yellow band on the rocket, and in the Homs video of the HE munition there's a yellow band on the warhead



Now this is one of the munitions used in the recent attacks



Even though it's a bit bent, it's clearly much shorter. The interesting thing is, I've been doing some work finding the exact width of these, and I'm certain they are both around 333mm wide, which means they would both fit the Falaq-2, which uses a very uniquely sized munition.

The Newman
Oct 17, 2003
unconstructive critic

Tab8715 posted:

Didn't Israeli bomb a bunch of buildings inside of Syria known to have bio/chem weapons?

And if the US does bomb a bunch of chem/bio sites - that would still leave a stalemate?

Well, we can see how effective those strikes were at eliminating the existence and usage of such weapons, so perhaps it's time to calibrate expectations for the next strike.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

The Newman posted:

Well, we can see how effective those strikes were at eliminating the existence and usage of such weapons, so perhaps it's time to calibrate expectations for the next strike.

I haven't seen any more chemical weapons used in Iraq, I don't know about you.

Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

Saint Celestine posted:

Maybe they can load the cluster-bomb variant of the tomahawk with humanitarian aid and have it spread food packages over the refugee camps?

Maybe they could even make the aid packages look just like bombs too.



Oh wait. They're way ahead of us.

Pimpmust posted:

Well depends on if you consider deterring chemical strikes against the Syrian people to improve their lots :iiam:

You assume that attacks will deter further CW attacks. That's not at all a given, and if Assad's situation becomes truly desperate as a result of these strikes he has nothing to lose if he just attacks. Also it appears that the CW are under control of generals who are not entirely controlled by Assad. If one of them decides to defect, a little CW attack might be a great way to get the US to blow up some objectives for you.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

The Newman posted:

"It deters because we say it does!" - Dudes that executed the last dictator to be linked to chemical weapons

Iraq was pretty clearly not really about chemical weapons at all, and we've done gently caress all about states accused of having nuclear and biological weapons, despite repeatedly threatening them to no avail, so executing Saddam doesn't quite send the message you think it does.

Muscle Tracer
Feb 23, 2007

Medals only weigh one down.

Brown Moses posted:

Even though it's a bit bent, it's clearly much shorter. The interesting thing is, I've been doing some work finding the exact width of these, and I'm certain they are both around 333mm wide, which means they would both fit the Falaq-2, which uses a very uniquely sized munition.

Is that really 'a bit' bent? It looks like there's a significant portion bent 90º pointing towards the camera, although that might just be that specific image.

Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

The Newman posted:

"It deters because we say it does!" - Dudes that executed the last dictator to be linked to chemical weapons

Space Monster posted:

I think he was asking for an explanation of how a few cruise missiles would act as a serious deterrent to a brutal sociopath with nothing to lose.

The fact that Assad is trying to deny it means that he cares about the consequences. If he cares about the consequences, that means that there is a likelihood he can be deterred. If he really didn't give a poo poo about the consequences, he'd just come out and say he gassed thousands of people, "what I don't give a gently caress". Now that is a dude that you can't persuade.

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Space Monster posted:

I think he was asking for an explanation of how a few cruise missiles would act as a serious deterrent to a brutal sociopath with nothing to lose.

Define "a few". Also, take out enough stockpiles/launchers and it's gonna be a lot harder to carry out any widescale attacks.

(If they can succeed with that or not is another matter).

Of course, if everyone agrees that he's not a rational actor and just a brutal dick then nope, nothing gonna stop him from going maximum :hitler: short of killing him.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Muscle Tracer posted:

Is that really 'a bit' bent? It looks like there's a significant portion bent 90º pointing towards the camera, although that might just be that specific image.

That's the warhead section, not the tail, I should have been clearer.

Nuclearmonkee
Jun 10, 2009


Main Paineframe posted:

Iraq was pretty clearly not really about chemical weapons at all, and we've done gently caress all about states accused of having nuclear and biological weapons, despite repeatedly threatening them to no avail, so executing Saddam doesn't quite send the message you think it does.

The only message we have really been consistent on is "get nukes and we will not invade your country."

The Newman
Oct 17, 2003
unconstructive critic
Maybe because the last guy we invaded and executed for chem weapons didn't actually have them, the deterrent effect didn't work? Like Assaad, rational being that he is, has worked this out.

Well, if I *don't* have these weapons I get invaded and killed, but since I *do* have them, there's no reason not to use them.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Tab8715 posted:

Didn't Israeli bomb a bunch of buildings inside of Syria known to have bio/chem weapons?

And if the US does bomb a bunch of chem/bio sites - that would still leave a stalemate?

The Israeli strike was on a suspected nuclear weapons research site. Not a reactor, but a lab working on the construction of some of the fine components that the program would need.

The shape of the US strike is to hit delivery systems like airbases, rocket bases, artillery sites, and supply caches. We'd probably strike the Presidential Palace and defense ministry and other command & control sites. Supposedly, they want to avoid striking chemical weapons depots for fear that they might spread poison and because the munitions might already have been dispersed, meaning we'd be shooting a couple million bucks worth of missiles at empty buildings.

This is all just supposition, but it jibes with Western preference for a fast strike and zero boots on the ground.

Space Monster
Mar 13, 2009

Pimpmust posted:

Define "a few". Also, take out enough stockpiles/launchers and it's gonna be a lot harder to carry out any widescale attacks.

(If they can succeed with that or not is another matter).

Of course, if everyone agrees that he's not a rational actor and just a brutal dick then nope, nothing gonna stop him from going maximum :hitler: short of killing him.

If they could do that I'd be more in favor of a strike...

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Vladimir Putin
Mar 17, 2007

by R. Guyovich

Paul MaudDib posted:

Maybe they could even make the aid packages look just like bombs too.



Oh wait. They're way ahead of us.


Those two things don't look remotely like each other except for the fact they are almost the same color. The shape is totally different, and the markings are not the same. One of them has a dude eating something on it.

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