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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Man, so can all the FDP posters near my apartment saying "Mehr Mut, Mehr Markt, Mehr Freiheit, Nur mit uns" go down now, along with all the NPD posters (okay, I've only seen numerous amounts of the latter in Oranienburg and Treptow)? I think they would like to be Business Über Alles all day, but thankfully outright FYGM libertarians seem to be all but unelectable so v  v
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Sep 23, 2013 08:00
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I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Man, so can all the FDP posters near my apartment saying "Mehr Mut, Mehr Markt, Mehr Freiheit, Nur mit uns" go down now, along with all the NPD posters (okay, I've only seen numerous amounts of the latter in Oranienburg and Treptow)? They're not necessarily libertarian in the strict sense, but they're very much pro-free market and pro-low taxes. Their problem is (well, was) that their traditional clientèle voted for them on those grounds, but they really couldn't get anything done in that department when they were in a coalition with Merkel's CDU. In fact, the only FDP-led ministry that really did anything of note was the Ministry of Justice and while the FDP tried to capitalize on that by suddenly presenting itself as the party of freedom and rule of law, most of the people that go for that pitch traditionally in Germany tend to be more left-wing and wouldn't be caught dead voting for the FDP.
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Sep 23, 2013 08:19
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:Man, so can all the FDP posters near my apartment saying "Mehr Mut, Mehr Markt, Mehr Freiheit, Nur mit uns" go down now, along with all the NPD posters (okay, I've only seen numerous amounts of the latter in Oranienburg and Treptow)? Usually they have around 14 days to collect their posters.
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Sep 23, 2013 08:21
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Unless they slap a sticker on it promoting an upcoming speech or whatever. Die Linke is/was notorious for this, at least in Hamburg. Their posters would stay up forever because of that.
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Sep 23, 2013 08:32
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Such a strange result. Numerically, a majority of left-leaning sets; but not a majority of votes, since almost 10% of right-ey votes are semi-artificially suppressed by the 5% rule. And even if most seats are left-leaning, the government will most likely be center-right because the Linke is still a designated pariah. I think the results provide a reasonable argument against the 5% rule: two very similar voter blocks will not be represented because of an arbitrary limit. The results also provide a reasonable argument for the 5% rule: two parties that many see as dangerous and extreme were prevented from entering the parliament.
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Sep 23, 2013 09:14
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Cingulate posted:The results also provide a reasonable argument for the 5% rule: two parties that many see as dangerous and extreme were prevented from entering the parliament.
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Sep 23, 2013 09:23
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My personal opinion is that neoliberal and nationalist politics are evil, so I'm happy AfD and FDP are out, but I also have to acknowledge that many, many (millions?) Germans will not experience democratic representation for 4 years - even though I don't like how they would be represented, this feels wrong. (On the other hand, none of this matters since there is no party that will not build new coal plants.)
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Sep 23, 2013 09:31
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Hey now, some people specifically voted the party that promised to build more coal power plants for precisely that reason.  Die Partei posted:These: Kein Neubau von Kohlekraftwerken!
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Sep 23, 2013 09:36
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Smirr posted:
Makes sense. This is a quite rich region. And there definitely are some FDP shills around. For example, Bad Honnef (incidentally the birthplace of Westerwelle) has one of the highest rates of millionaires living there. If you lived in Bonn you had the chance to vote Westerwelle with a Direktmandat. Furthermore big companies like DHL or Telecom would have an interest in the lax policies of the FDP. But don't get rid of this region. It's actually a really great place to be.
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Sep 23, 2013 09:38
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BabyFur Denny posted:What? The Linke and Grüne are still in. There is no question about elements of Die Linke having extreme views, but that is not something the Greens can be accused of. What are these dangerous and extreme views do they have? About the 5% hurdle: I prefer it to the thing we had in the Weimar Republic, or the fragmented mess that is the Italian parliament. I doubt the CDU will get the same result again next election, if only just because quite a few CDU voters will think twice about their second vote. The simple fact is that a few thousand of those to the FDP would have preserved their governing coalition while still massively strengthening the CDU. I doubt the FDP is out for good. About the AfD, well this depends heavily on what happens with the Euro in the next few years. And if the FDP embraces a more critical attitude towards the Euro. That could seriously undermine the voter base of the AfD.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:02
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parrhesia posted:Hey now, some people specifically voted the party that promised to build more coal power plants for precisely that reason. Torrannor posted:About the AfD, well this depends heavily on what happens with the Euro in the next few years. And if the FDP embraces a more critical attitude towards the Euro. That could seriously undermine the voter base of the AfD. Granted, it's only 5% of direct votes this time, but the FDP (and, actually, the left parties) must really feel that blow and they know it's coming from the far-right.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:09
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Torrannor posted:About the AfD, well this depends heavily on what happens with the Euro in the next few years. And if the FDP embraces a more critical attitude towards the Euro. That could seriously undermine the voter base of the AfD. Yeah, I'm also wondering what will happen to them. I guess/hope they'll lose most of whatever pull they had with protest voters and slink back into obscurity now. Plus, the next four years will be plenty of time to dig up and demonstrate their lack of actual substance (or for them to double down on their more terrible positions and become unelectable).
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Sep 23, 2013 10:16
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quote:I guess/hope they'll lose most of whatever pull they had with protest voters and slink back into obscurity now. Plus, the next four years will be plenty of time to dig up and demonstrate their lack of actual substance (or for them to double down on their more terrible positions and become unelectable). Oh, the naive hopes of a country unaccustomed to right-wing populism 
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Sep 23, 2013 10:21
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I think he's saying that those convinced by right-wing populism will fall for a different kind of right-wing populism in the future.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:22
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I really think the AfD getting so many votes is a temporary thing. If the election had been a year ago we'd have the Pirates in parliament with 10%, more than either Grüne or Linke now.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:26
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My Lovely Horse posted:I really think the AfD getting so many votes is a temporary thing. If the election had been a year ago we'd have the Pirates in parliament with 10%, more than either Grüne or Linke now. I know comparing America to Germany is like comparing apples and oranges, but everyone said this about the Tea Party in 2006/7 too.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:30
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Stefu posted:Oh, the naive hopes of a country unaccustomed to right-wing populism Drone posted:I know comparing America to Germany is like comparing apples and oranges, but everyone said this about the Tea Party in 2006/7 too. I'd say the difference is that getting *too* right-wing is politically very toxic in Germany, especially on a federal level. So I guess it will depend a lot on messaging, but if the AfD continues to draw in former NPD/DVU-members and gets too loud with their nationalist rhetoric that may well drive everybody else away.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:37
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The BRD's had plenty experience with right-wing populism in the past. It seems pretty likely to me that AfD will follow the path of its forebears (like the Republikaner in the 80s/90s and the NPD in the 60s) by having a brief moment in the limelight before disintegrating.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:40
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The AfD is a one-issue protest party, and as soon as that one issue is out of the limelight, the party will disintegrate. In other news, it seems we have narrowly avoided an absolute majority for the CDU/CSU. I'm guessing a great coalition is upon us? Edit: Also can I just say that I absolutely did not see that coming? I was watching the results come in with friends last night, and somebody half-jokingly brought up the possibility of a purely black government. We were all like, "naaaaa, never gonna happen", until ZDF had them with 304 out of a necessary 303 seats 
botany fucked around with this message at 10:56 on Sep 23, 2013 |
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Sep 23, 2013 10:54
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Zohar posted:The BRD's had plenty experience with right-wing populism in the past. It seems pretty likely to me that AfD will follow the path of its forebears (like the Republikaner in the 80s/90s and the NPD in the 60s) by having a brief moment in the limelight before disintegrating. The problem is, at least as experienced by other countries with rising right ring populists is that now the USSR is gone there isn't any real reason for elites to fear a left wing backlash to right wing populism so they have no reason to try to moderate it. Thus this time may well not drop off as things have in the past.
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Sep 23, 2013 10:59
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The entire AdF is build around the populist narrative that those lazy Southerners are unjustly taking our money, so their future success will be depended on how that situation develops. It's not really that people have a problem with the Euro per se, but they feel that its existence forced Germany to finance the Greek collapse. Once the money issue is of the table, I am pretty sure it will go back to the usual disinterest in all things EU related.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:09
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botany posted:The AfD is a one-issue protest party, and as soon as that one issue is out of the limelight, the party will disintegrate. But unless you live in an ivory tower in the Alps you very well know that the Euro crisis is far from over. And perhaps some people don't take this into account, but as time goes on those with living memories of the far right are slowly dying off, and as evidenced by the rest of Europe nationalist sentiment is making a comeback. You should not count a right wing party out simply because similar movements in past decades died. The fact that the CDU has attracted such a high number of votes should worry in this regard; if things start going south the CDU will get the blame (or part of it), and the right-wingers will start voting for less centrist, more radical parties. A CDU that received 42% of the vote shows there is great potential for right-wing radicalisation.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:16
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ReV VAdAUL posted:The problem is, at least as experienced by other countries with rising right ring populists is that now the USSR is gone there isn't any real reason for elites to fear a left wing backlash to right wing populism so they have no reason to try to moderate it. Thus this time may well not drop off as things have in the past. I think that's a fair point in general, but I'm still relatively convinced that in Germany in particular the ideological and political safeguards against it are too strong for it to have as much success on a national level. I mean it wouldn't be too much of an exaggeration to say that the Federal Republic was founded and built up with the explicit purpose of obstructing populist politics. I should clarify I'm certainly not optimistic about the situation in Europe as a whole, but I tend to think Germany might be in a slightly better place because of its past.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:25
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e X posted:The entire AdF is build around the populist narrative that those lazy Southerners are unjustly taking our money, so their future success will be depended on how that situation develops. It's not really that people have a problem with the Euro per se, but they feel that its existence forced Germany to finance the Greek collapse. On the other hand, the AfD barely missing 5% may indicate that most people still somehow think racism is bad. Which, honestly speaking, surprises me considering how much racism one sees on a daily basis.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:29
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Bear in mind most racists don't consider themselves to be racists. It's a bit like the polls in the UK showing that large sections of the population agree with BNP policies, but only so long as they don't have the BNP name attached to them. Far-right brands are easy to toxify.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:32
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YF-23 posted:But unless you live in an ivory tower in the Alps you very well know that the Euro crisis is far from over. I would argue the opposite: A CDU with 42% is possible because Merkel moved the CDU to the left. A more right-wing CDU is likely going to lose a lot of more center-left voters, although it could very well absorb part of the potential the AfD now used. The AfD is a temporary thing, in my opinion. It could very well survive one or two more elections, but I doubt it will matter beyond that. The CDU has, thanks to the CSU, the ability to go to the right very far without compromising its overall centrist appeal. That alone makes it hard to create a powerful right-wing alternative in Germany. The CDU also has, more than any other party in Germany, a track record that appeals to people in this particular part of the electorate. It's been plenty successful from their point of view. The success of the AfD hinges on three things: The economy is down in the shitter and we don't really know when things are going to improve, Europe is an intransparent bureaucratic monster that seems to steal our money and people (think they) still remember the DM. In 20 years, abolishing the Euro will seem pretty strange - it has been such a major part of people's lives for so long, proposing an alternative will seem too extreme. The economy will probably improve at some point, taking pressure away there. That leaves people being unhappy with Europe - previous parties have tried to run with this in Germany and as a sole issue, it's never been very successful. Finally, take a look at where AfD got most of their votes from: Over 1/3 were actually from the left (Linke/SPD/Grüne) and almost another 1/3 from the FDP alone. That reeks a lot of protest votes and not a structural move to the right on behalf of the electorate. And protest votes are notoriously fickle. The rest were about equal parts previous non-voters and CDU, but even if those remain or improve their numbers slightly, they are far from close to 5%. Babies Getting Rabies fucked around with this message at 11:37 on Sep 23, 2013 |
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Sep 23, 2013 11:34
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parrhesia posted:Finally, take a look at where AfD got most of their votes from: Over 1/3 were actually from the left (Linke/SPD/Grüne) and almost another 1/3 from the FDP alone. That reeks a lot of protest votes and not a structural move to the right on behalf of the electorate. parrhesia posted:The economy is down in the shitter Zohar posted:Bear in mind most racists don't consider themselves to be racists. It's a bit like the polls in the UK showing that large sections of the population agree with BNP policies, but only so long as they don't have the BNP name attached to them. Far-right brands are easy to toxify. Cingulate fucked around with this message at 11:39 on Sep 23, 2013 |
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Sep 23, 2013 11:36
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YF-23 posted:But unless you live in an ivory tower in the Alps you very well know that the Euro crisis is far from over. That's why I said "out of the limelight", not "solved". The AfD, much like any one-issue party, relies on constant agitation around that one issue. All it needs for them to lose even the small amount of momentum they've had is (a) for the issue to be eclipsed by something else or (b) for the issue to become less important and enter the business-as-usual stage, or (c) to lose themselves in a torrent of infighting, bad organization and general incompetence (see: Pirate Party). If a seriously organized right-wing party were to come up that recruited voters from every social class and wasn't focussed on a single issue, I'd be worried. But this isn't the case here.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:39
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Cingulate posted:Considering there is no overlap in core FDP and AfD policies regarding specific issues (that I am aware of, correct me if I'm missing some elephant or other), this should be surprising. Sure, they both share a general FYGM attitude, but how it is expressed they are fundamentally opposed on. quote:Did you forget some "people think" hedge here or what?
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Sep 23, 2013 11:43
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botany posted:If a seriously organized right-wing party were to come up that recruited voters from every social class and wasn't focussed on a single issue, I don't think it's just lucky accidents (some of them literal) that have confirmed all the far right, but not outright fascist parties to very short lives. People who're willing to go to the right of the CDU are simply not reasonable. parrhesia posted:But that's not very sustainable - you just need a different hot button issue and people will switch again.  vvv argh corrected vvv Cingulate fucked around with this message at 11:51 on Sep 23, 2013 |
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Sep 23, 2013 11:46
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Cingulate posted:I don't think it's not just lucky accidents (some of them literal) that have confirmed all the far right, but not outright fascist parties to very short lives. People who're willing to go to the right of the CDU are simply not reasonable. Cingulate posted:I think racism as a platform is quite sustainable, once it has become more, for lack of a better word, salonfähig Sure, but that's honestly not a problem that we'll have in this country in the foreseeable future.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:50
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Cingulate posted:I think racism as a platform is quite sustainable, once it has become more, for lack of a better word, salonfähig We already have plenty of that.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:52
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I'm thinking that to be right of the CDU in Germany, you have to be the sort of fringe thinker/group who can't keep things running.e X posted:We already have plenty of that.
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Sep 23, 2013 11:52
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Cingulate posted:I think racism as a platform is quite sustainable, once it has become more, for lack of a better word, salonfähig Radical racism isn't something you'll be successful with in Germany, i.e. obviously centered around race. Racism mostly based on economic issues probably more so, but both CDU/CSU and FDP have successfully toyed with that before, so it's not like AfD has no competition there.* AfD didn't campaign with "brown people are terrible", their message was along the lines of "brown people are taking our money because of Europe". The problem with the success of that argument is that it depends on the crisis continuing unabated. They'll get their next shot in 5 years - let's see how the economy is then. If it has improved, their chances are nowhere near as good. Targeting people's wallets only works if they are super worried about the contents of said wallets. Fundamentally, the problem with parties like AfD (apart from the single issue thing) is what previous posters rightly pointed out as a key to Merkel's success: A large number of Germans is inherently averse to radical change. Things under Merkel have been pretty ok, so why the need for sudden change? What AfD stands for is sudden change and to most people, especially the ones profiting from the status quo, this is really not very attractive. Not surprisingly, in voter groups aged 45 and above, AfD didn't do very well. The stereotypical AfD voter is male, young and lives in the east. They are loud and angry, but not a large group and politically not very influential (nor will they be in the foreseeable future). *: Please don't misunderstand me here - Germany has a huge problem with racism. But it's a problem nobody is willing to acknowledge, to the point where people are allergic to overt racism in public. Parties that move to the right too far have a huge image problem precisely because of that and I don't see signs that this is going to change. Both the racism and the lack of a will to acknowledge it (but therefore also clearly admit to it politically).
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Sep 23, 2013 12:01
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parrhesia posted:A large number of Germans is inherently averse to radical change. Things under Merkel have been pretty ok, so why the need for sudden change? What AfD stands for is sudden change and to most people, especially the ones profiting from the status quo, this is really not very attractive parrhesia posted:Germany has a huge problem with racism. But it's a problem nobody is willing to acknowledge, to the point where people are allergic to overt racism in public. Parties that move to the right too far have a huge image problem precisely because of that and I don't see signs that this is going to change. Both the racism and the lack of a will to acknowledge it (but therefore also clearly admit to it politically). Which is, pragmatically speaking, good. But also scary.
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Sep 23, 2013 12:06
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The moment your policies shift too far to the right, so that others can credibly name you Nazi, you are finished as a political party in Germany, at least on a federal level. Besides, the political elites are rather unified in not wanting a return to the policies of the Nazis. And of course, we can actually ban a far right political party. The constitutional court can do that, and has done it in the past. The issue with the NPD is complicated by undercover agents of the state occupying leadership positions (how stupid can you be?), and if not for the V-Leute, they would perhaps already be banned. I have a very hard time seeing a party consistently to the right of the CDU on social issues establishing itself.
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Sep 23, 2013 12:41
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I think the right-wing just lacks talent. Most people who are far-right but have some political skill would probably rather join CDU and keep the most radical ideas out of the public (or if lucky live in Bayern and can join CSU). Being in the CDU is a good way to get somewhere with your political career, but the far-right parties (most notably NPD) seem to be horrible messes with poo poo organisation, money problems and too many nutters and/or drama queens. (The same probably applies at the far-left, where silly infighting and crazies make fringe parties unenjoyable for people that want to organize stuff)
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Sep 23, 2013 13:17
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What kind of far-right position would even remotely make sense in Germany? We are an export oriented countrie with an aging population that needs fresh bodies (but only the well educated ones) to sustain our economie. Forcing the southeners to reform and not paying them to much seems to be the only position on the righ that makes sense. Stricter rules for asylum seekers might be something you can talk about but its not a core issue that will play well in the media, so you keep the status quo.
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Sep 23, 2013 13:31
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elbkaida posted:The same probably applies at the far-left, where silly infighting and crazies make fringe parties unenjoyable for people that want to organize stuff Yeah, that's wrong. The SPD is not far-left.
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Sep 23, 2013 13:32
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GaussianCopula posted:What kind of far-right position would even remotely make sense in Germany? We are an export oriented countrie with an aging population that needs fresh bodies (but only the well educated ones) to sustain our economie. What kind of far-right position ever makes sense other than to find a convenient scapegoat?
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