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Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Muscle Tracer posted:

Hersh's claim is technically not that the rebels perpetrated the attacks, but that the Obama administrations specific reasoning for thinking that Assad perpetrated the attacks was flimsy. That's what Count Roland is defending: Hersh's literal argument, not the obvious implications of that argument.

Yes, and I'm none too happy defending him either. I respect his work a great deal, but this article -despite its merits- is ruined by its sloppy, unprofessional implications.



Sigh, sorry for the continued derailment. We can get back on topic with yet another day of particularly bad violence in Iraq, over 70 dead. I'm of the opinion that Iraq has once again [is still] in a sectarian civil war. Media has not gone back to calling it that yet, but it seems continually on the verge of become yet again more violent. What do you guys think about Iraq around these parts? The Kurdish situation I find particularly interesting- I daresay between the chaos in Iraq and Syria they might just net themselves a country, if they're lucky.

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Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Volkerball posted:

al-Ahram has an interesting piece that claims Westerners fighting in Syria who have traditionally kept silent are beginning to loosen up on social media in efforts to recruit.


No really, it's the murder warehouses ISIS shuffles an assembly line of victims through under flimsy pretense in areas they control. That's why.

http://english.ahram.org.eg/News/88635.aspx

This dude died today.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-25415113

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Here's my appearance on CNN International's Amanpour talking about Syria.

54.4 crowns
Apr 7, 2011

To think before you speak is like wiping your arse before you shit.
Dulce et decorum est pro patria mori:
mors et fugacem persequitur virum
nec parcit inbellis iuventae
poplitibus timidove tergo.

Cocoa Ninja
Mar 3, 2007

Brown Moses posted:

Here's my appearance on CNN International's Amanpour talking about Syria.

Nice. You got some legit screen time there and Amanpour seems engaged. How long was the unedited interview?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Cocoa Ninja posted:

Nice. You got some legit screen time there and Amanpour seems engaged. How long was the unedited interview?

Only about 10 minutes longer I think, it was pretty much straight to the point. They said they'd like to have me on again in the future, as well, and she seemed really interested in everything I was telling her. We chatted a bit afterwards, but the producers were hurrying her along to do other stuff so I didn't get too much chance to talk to her.

I spoke to journalism.co.uk today about the new website I'm launching next year.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Hey Brown Moses, apologies if this has been discussed already, but have you seen this? It's a data dump from the Syrian Electronic Army that appears to be a bunch of communications between Matthew Van Dyke and and a number of other personas related to Syria. They're presenting it as a smoking gun, but even the most allegedly damning stuff (namely rebel possession of CW in Aleppo) seems to have been previously debunked as false or an exaggeration.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Yeah, the pro-Assad crowd collectively jizzed their pants over it, but it was just one of many vague stories I heard about CW. He couldn't even tell me the type of munition, and as I've pointed out, if the opposition had captured chemical weapons the Syrian government would have been required to tell the OPCW, and probably would have mentioned it after August 21st. It's pretty hilariously that they got so excited about the talk of our "mutual benefactor", and thought "diamond tier" was some secret code, when it was actually a discussion about my Indiegogo fundraiser. They also got very excited about the fact the Human Rights Watch has paid me for consultancy work in the past, something they'd know if they listened to the many interviews where I talk about it. It's like I said in the CNN interview, you hear all sorts of stories and rumours about chemical weapons, but most of them don't pan out.

Gen. Ripper
Jan 12, 2013


Speaking of dictator shills...

Britain's MI6 linked to Libya torture scandal

I can't wait to hear the necrophiles Gaddafi shills spin like mad to justify the narrative of Gaddafi being some noble anti-imperialist hero. :allears:

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi writes at great length on the factions in Abu Kamal. A really detailed insight into a town that's surprisingly complex http://brown-moses.blogspot.co.uk/2013/12/the-factions-of-abu-kamal.html

Aymenn will be one of the contributors on my new site, along with Phillip Smyth, Aaron Zelin, and Pieter van Ostaeyen, all of whom are well known for writing pieces on Jihadists, foreign fighters, and militias in Syria.

Pieter Pan
May 16, 2004
Bad faith argument here:
-------------------------------->
All of that sounds extremely promising, Brown Moses. You said that other conflicts would also be covered on the upcoming website. Will that be limited to conflicts related to jihadism or could other conflicts around the world also be covered at some point?

Pieter Pan fucked around with this message at 12:54 on Dec 18, 2013

suck my woke dick
Oct 10, 2012

:siren:I CANNOT EJACULATE WITHOUT SEEING NATIVE AMERICANS BRUTALISED!:siren:

Put this cum-loving slave on ignore immediately!

forgot my pants posted:

That's interesting. My one pro-Assad friend also loves bitcoins.

Assad was living the libertarian dream. Now he is living the dream of the defense of the libertarian dream.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Pieter posted:

All of that sounds extremely promising, Brown Moses. You said that other conflicts would also be covered on the upcoming website. Will that be limited to conflicts related to jihadism or could other conflicts around the world also be covered at some point?

So far I've signed up 3 writers on Hackgate, including Peter Jukes; 1 on CBRN issues, 1 on India and Pakistan, 1 on Nigeria, 1 on Northern Iraq and Kurdish issues, 1 on technical security issues, someone who will do a regular podcast on the Middle East, plus myself. I'll be expanding the number of contributors as I go, to begin with I'm starting small, but I know a number of people who would be interested in contributing once the site is up and running, so I shouldn't have any trouble finding more contributors on a variety of issues.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Often I come across one side or another making a claim about something that's wrong, and in fact the truth is far more interesting. ISIS claims they captured these "NATO" mortar rounds



They're actually nothing to do with NATO, they're Iranian, and you'll note they've been manufactured in 2013, which means they've been provided despite UN sanctions against Iran. Not the first time I've spotted that, but the earlier examples were from 2012, not 2013.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Does anyone know a good source of information on the current corruption probe scandal in Turkey (in english)? All i can find is news about the Gülen/Erdogan power struggle over money and Erdogan firing police officials over the sons of his ministers getting arrested, but little about the actual corruption charges (except it's linked to the company which was destroying Taksim Square).

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Try these:
http://ottomansandzionists.com/2013/12/17/graft-gulen-and-the-future-of-the-akp/
http://yavuzbaydar.wordpress.com/2013/12/18/corruption-allegations-take-the-akp-cabinet-in-moral-siege/
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-17/turkey-s-conservatives-spark-a-war-of-religion.html
Today's Zaman is Gulenist, and all over this story
http://www.todayszaman.com/home

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 21:37 on Dec 18, 2013

namesake
Jun 19, 2006

"When I was a girl, around 12 or 13, I had a fantasy that I'd grow up to marry Captain Scarlet, but he'd be busy fighting the Mysterons so I'd cuckold him with the sexiest people I could think of - Nigel Mansell, Pat Sharp and Mr. Blobby."

Any reason Iranians produce armaments in english except for lingua franca?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

namesake posted:

Any reason Iranians produce armaments in english except for lingua franca?

I'm pretty sure it's just that, you see the same with Chinese weapons as well.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Morsi and 34 other MB officials are going to stand trial on espionage charges. Apparently, they spied for Hamas, Hizballah, and the IRGC, but no word as to whether or not Morsi was responsible for 9/11 or the second gunman on the grassy knoll.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Because the Egyptian army and intelligence services would of course never share information with other states. No sir.

woke wedding drone
Jun 1, 2003

by exmarx
Fun Shoe

suboptimal posted:

Morsi and 34 other MB officials are going to stand trial on espionage charges. Apparently, they spied for Hamas, Hizballah, and the IRGC, but no word as to whether or not Morsi was responsible for 9/11 or the second gunman on the grassy knoll.

And with his own right hand, he cut off the head of the American Jew Daniel Pearl.

Warbadger
Jun 17, 2006

Count Roland posted:

Yes, and I'm none too happy defending him either. I respect his work a great deal, but this article -despite its merits- is ruined by its sloppy, unprofessional implications.



Sigh, sorry for the continued derailment. We can get back on topic with yet another day of particularly bad violence in Iraq, over 70 dead. I'm of the opinion that Iraq has once again [is still] in a sectarian civil war. Media has not gone back to calling it that yet, but it seems continually on the verge of become yet again more violent. What do you guys think about Iraq around these parts? The Kurdish situation I find particularly interesting- I daresay between the chaos in Iraq and Syria they might just net themselves a country, if they're lucky.

They basically already have their own country. Currently Kurdish Iraq is in the middle of an economic and cultural boom, enjoying a very peaceful/stable period as a result of their lack of involvement in the sectarian fighting. Part of the reason they remain uninvolved is that they're already functionally independent of the rest of Iraq. They have an independent military/police/govt. bureaucratic apparatus, maintain their own borders (including those they share with the rest of Iraq!), issue their own passports/visas (and notably are not guaranteed to even permit access under a Baghdad/Iraqi Visa), and otherwise self-govern independently of the government in Baghdad.

Warbadger fucked around with this message at 23:25 on Dec 18, 2013

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless
The leader of al-Nusra had his first big interview with al-Jazeera.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/12/al-qaeda-leader-syria-speaks-al-jazeera-20131218155917935989.html

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.
BM do you have, or anyone else anything in depth on the Jordanian refugee camps? Preferably something better than the normal drive by reporting by the media.

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
What are you looking for? There was an interesting Der Spiegel profile of the guy in charge of Zaatari a few months ago, but it's a big topic, so it depends what you want.

farraday
Jan 10, 2007

Lower those eyebrows, young man. And the other one.

Xandu posted:

What are you looking for? There was an interesting Der Spiegel profile of the guy in charge of Zaatari a few months ago, but it's a big topic, so it depends what you want.

Trying to familiarize myself with the Jordanian/government perspective on the refugee camps. Oddly enough it was an article on the IKEA refugee tents that got me thinking. It cited hostility to the perceived long lasting nature of the tents as a sign of permanence. Given that Jordan has a sometimes spotty relationship with its Palestinian refugees, many of whom are citizens of Jordan, but the Syrians are a different question. The structures put into place for the Palestinians don't necessarily translate, nor might the government want them to.

The government of Jordan meanwhile acts as a strained middleman between the GCC and western states it is tied to. Turkey can really forge their own policy but Jordan must and has been a lot more circumspect, so I wonder how it's position as crossroads of several interest groups is affecting how it deals with refugees.

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Xandu posted:

What are you looking for? There was an interesting Der Spiegel profile of the guy in charge of Zaatari a few months ago, but it's a big topic, so it depends what you want.

This guy was fielding questions just yesterday on Zaatari's twitter. I asked him if the camp was moving forward with the perspective that it might be around for several decades. He said that the camp was temporary, and once the last of the refugees left, it wouldn't be necessary. However, Azraq, the new camp being built, is 4 times the size of Zaatari with an advised occupancy only 1/3 bigger. They're maximizing space per person, and attempting to create organized villages. They're also building infrastructure with steel frames as opposed to wheeling in trailers like they did with Zaatari, so it's pretty clear the UNHCR is preparing for the long haul, while playing politics with Jordan when it comes to the camp remaining temporary. As a Jordanian man was quick to point out, it's the same rhetoric that was said about the Palestinian campus 60 and 40 years ago.

Charliegrs
Aug 10, 2009
The leader of the Al Nusra has given a TV interview to Al Jazeera:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/12/al-qaeda-leader-syria-speaks-al-jazeera-20131218155917935989.html

He says "“The battle is almost over, we have covered about 70 percent of it, and what's left is small. We (the rebels) will achieve victory soon. We pray to God to culminate these efforts with victory. It's only a matter of days" Ummm... yeah I'm not so sure about that.

Young Freud
Nov 26, 2006

Charliegrs posted:

The leader of the Al Nusra has given a TV interview to Al Jazeera:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2013/12/al-qaeda-leader-syria-speaks-al-jazeera-20131218155917935989.html

He says "“The battle is almost over, we have covered about 70 percent of it, and what's left is small. We (the rebels) will achieve victory soon. We pray to God to culminate these efforts with victory. It's only a matter of days" Ummm... yeah I'm not so sure about that.

Don't be too hasty in judging that. While the situation has been fluid in the last couple of months, the rebels still hold control of a lot of the Syrian regime's oil revenue, regime doesn't have the resources to dislodge them, and pretty much their air force has now been grounded due to no fuel and no spares. With the SNC are finally in collapse and the FSA now either disbanded, in exile, or operating under largely Islamist groups like ISIS and Al Nusra, it looks like the disarray and infighting that has plagued the rebels the last few months is over and they can get around to fighting the civil war (and unfortunately ethnically cleanse Syria). It'll probably not be a matter of days, but the momentum is still on their side, despite slowing down with the regime's advances.

The blue bunny
May 29, 2013
Some links about the camps in Jordon.


http://data.unhcr.org/syrianrefugees/country.php?id=107


http://www.irinnews.org/report/99127/syrian-aid-in-the-tech-age

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Young Freud posted:

Don't be too hasty in judging that. While the situation has been fluid in the last couple of months, the rebels still hold control of a lot of the Syrian regime's oil revenue, regime doesn't have the resources to dislodge them, and pretty much their air force has now been grounded due to no fuel and no spares. With the SNC are finally in collapse and the FSA now either disbanded, in exile, or operating under largely Islamist groups like ISIS and Al Nusra, it looks like the disarray and infighting that has plagued the rebels the last few months is over and they can get around to fighting the civil war (and unfortunately ethnically cleanse Syria). It'll probably not be a matter of days, but the momentum is still on their side, despite slowing down with the regime's advances.

The regime has been barrel bombing the poo poo out of Aleppo as of this week, there's still infighting, and Russia isn't going to let Assad fall because he ran out of gas after all the pressure they've put on themselves to prop him up. Get comfortable.

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich
Hate to interrupt Syria-chat but I believe this is the best thread to post this: poo poo is going crazy in Turkey. 29 high ranking police officers, including Istanbul chief of police, are dismissed by the government. Corruption allegations (which seems to be well documented) reaches to several ministers and seems to be revolving around one shady character named Reza Zarrab, who may have strong ties to Iran. Rumors say Erdogan's sons are next on the list. It's now apparent that this is a fight to the death for both sides. Expect some big news very soon.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

The Turkey stuff is a fantastic story, Gulen and Erdogan are at each others throats, and are capable of doing a lot of damage to each other. It's very funny watching Erdogan firing senior police left, right, and center after months of praising the police after the Gezi Park protests.

[edit] The latest leaks and rumours suggest this was part of a large scale sanction busting money laundering operation for Iran, heavily involving Erdogan's friends and allies.

Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 15:12 on Dec 19, 2013

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Brown Moses posted:

[edit] The latest leaks and rumours suggest this was part of a large scale sanction busting money laundering operation for Iran, heavily involving Erdogan's friends and allies.
Yeah, basically Iran used Halkbank to buy tons of gold and create 'clean' companies in Turkey to dodge the economic sanction against Iranian companies. It wasn't apparently really a well kept secret (The American Israel Public Affairs Committee tried to launch a campaign against the bank in the US congress) but with the rumored systematic 20% kickbacks/bribes to the AKP officials whenever one of those companies or the bank was involved in any public work, it's potentially going to hit a lot of people.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

It's quite amazing to watch, two big Islamist figures going MAD on each other. There's a nice summary here

quote:

From protests to corruption: is Turkey’s prime minister losing his touch?

Remember those protests in Turkey back in May and June?

They began over plans to destroy a park in Istanbul, but heavy-handed police tactics quickly turned them into demonstrations against the rule of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister.

The conventional wisdom back then was that Mr Erdogan, the most talented politician of his generation, would ride those protests out, and so it proved.

Whatever Turkish liberals said about him, Erdogan was democratically elected and his brand of populist Islamist conservatism combined with mercantile savvy meant he was unlikely to lose his grip on power.

In a blog at the time though, I suggested that something may have changed: “the leader is no longer invincible,” I wrote. “His party will question him; his ambition of assuming the presidency no longer seems quite so certain.”

Now comes further evidence that Erdogan’s kingdom is not as impregnable as he would like it to be.

On 17 December police detained some 80 people, including the sons of three of the PM’s cabinet ministers, in dawn raids as part of an investigation into corruption at the highest levels.

A furious Mr Erdogan railed against the police investigation.

He indirectly blamed Fethullah Gulen, part religious leader and part business mogul, who manages to exert extraordinary influence over Turkey’s commercial and political life from his home in Pennsylvania.

Turkey’s Prime Minister did not hesitate to strike back: five police chiefs in Istanbul and Ankara, presumed to be followers of Gulen, were removed from their posts.

During the summer protests, Erdogan backed firm police tactics; come the wintertime, and with his own cronies under suspicion, Erdogan has come up with the opposite response; one which reveals both the exent of the Turkish leader’s power and what the writer Christopher de Bellaigue in the latest “New York Review of Books” calls Erdogan’s “vindictive authoritarianism”.

This summer’s protests exposed to the world Erdogan’s Putin-like disdain for his critics.

The events of the last week suggest something far more serious: a power struggle at the heart of the Turkish political establishment.

Previously Erdogan took on the might of Turkey’s once meddlesome generals who used to stage military coups: now the Islamist political fortress Erdogan built in the generals’ place is looking weaker than ever before.

And irony of ironies, it is avowedly religious politicians, not their secular opponents, who stand accused of having their hands in the till.

Not since the trial of Turkish generals for alleged coup-plotting has a scandal grabbed bigger headlines, with the chief executive of a state-run bank reported to have kept $4.5m in cash stored in shoe boxes at his home.

All this may have a sobering effect on the Turkish electorate.

The Turkish newspaper columnist Semih Idiz has pointed out that Erdogan built his career on combating corruption – but now the son of his own interior minister has been arrested.

And the more vindictive Erdogan becomes in response to these corruption allegations, the weaker he may begin to look.

It's probably the most significant challenge to Erdogan since the AKP came to power, and coming from Gulen it's going to be hard for his supporters to ignore.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Die Welt recently published a piece on a Libya fighter in Syria, and I've got my hands on the full text of the interview that wasn't published, "Bashar al-Assad Is Not As Bad As These People!" - A Libyan On Joining Jabhat al-Nusra.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Brown Moses posted:

It's probably the most significant challenge to Erdogan since the AKP came to power, and coming from Gulen it's going to be hard for his supporters to ignore.
The more Erdogan tries to silence his critics, the worse the situation looks for him. I mean Turkey jailed more journalists than any other country in 2013, the second year in a row so it wasn't a surprised he also tried to bluntly silence the critics in his own party by threatening Gülen's schools but now he is really in panic mode, literally firing any police official who isn't one of his cronies. What's next, arresting the gulenist prosecutor who is leading the probe for unrelated crimes? Turkey's next elections are in 2015, aren't they?

King of Hamas
Nov 25, 2013

by XyloJW

Brown Moses posted:

Often I come across one side or another making a claim about something that's wrong, and in fact the truth is far more interesting. ISIS claims they captured these "NATO" mortar rounds

I wonder what the total worth of all of the weapons and equipment being funneled into Syria is worth. If you put the covert contributions from America, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and whoever else is throwing themselves into this fray, it would probably be staggering.

Gen. Ripper
Jan 12, 2013


Brown Moses posted:

Die Welt recently published a piece on a Libya fighter in Syria, and I've got my hands on the full text of the interview that wasn't published, "Bashar al-Assad Is Not As Bad As These People!" - A Libyan On Joining Jabhat al-Nusra.

Even NATO's Libyan terrorists can't stand their Syrian fellow-travelers. Checkmate, imperialists :smug:

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Miruvor
Jan 19, 2007
Pillbug
Not sure who you're arguing against, Gen. Ripper?

On the subject of extra-judicial punishments, there's a nice tit for tat on both sides today, UN basically saying the Assad regime is using systematic detentions to disappear a lot of dissenting voices, and on the rebel side, Amnesty International reporting that ISIL alone is running up to seven prisons where torture, executions are pretty common.

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