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America Inc.
Nov 22, 2013

I plan to live forever, of course, but barring that I'd settle for a couple thousand years. Even 500 would be pretty nice.

Mans posted:

I subscribed to vice and i get poo poo like "the Kurdish struggle in the Syrian civil war" folowed by "Brazil's biggest rear end" and then "Mexican self-relliant communes rebel against the government" followed by "i do cocaine in Eastern Europe".

I wonder how the wages are in vice. How much would you need to be payed to convince you to visit an Al-Nusra stronghold?
Probably stands out on a resume.

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MothraAttack
Apr 28, 2008
So Iranian media reports that Iranian warships will visit US maritime boundaries in the Atlantic, in response to American ships in the Gulf. What are the implications of this, if any?

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

MothraAttack posted:

So Iranian media reports that Iranian warships will visit US maritime boundaries in the Atlantic, in response to American ships in the Gulf. What are the implications of this, if any?
Some Iranian sailors may catch a few venereal diseases in Venezuela during their voyage to the US maritime boundaries?

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

MothraAttack posted:

So Iranian media reports that Iranian warships will visit US maritime boundaries in the Atlantic, in response to American ships in the Gulf. What are the implications of this, if any?

It mean's Iran built an oiler ship which is basically a big waste for whatever doctrine their navy has.

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Dusseldorf posted:

It mean's Iran built an oiler ship which is basically a big waste for whatever doctrine their navy has.

Oh but it's performing its doctrine function, "Propaganda for domestic consumption", just as expected :v:

It's not like they can hope to match the American navy in any sort of stand-up fight so eh.

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

Pimpmust posted:

Oh but it's performing its doctrine function, "Propaganda for domestic consumption", just as expected :v:

It's not like they can hope to match the American navy in any sort of stand-up fight so eh.

Didn't they talk about doing this a few years back?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

Muffiner posted:

Didn't they talk about doing this a few years back?

There was the whole blockade of the straight of Hormuz thing.

Chronojam
Feb 20, 2006

This is me on vacation in Amsterdam :)
Never be afraid of being yourself!


Muffiner posted:

Didn't they talk about doing this a few years back?

Yeah, I remember this rumor/threat/whatever sometime back in 2012 even.

Pimpmust
Oct 1, 2008

Yeah, it's just the annual flashy show they throw up.

The more concerning asset of the Iranians are their domestic submarine industry, small diesel-electrics are sorta nasty when it comes to an area like Hormuz and they've been churning them out at a decent pace (there's two of the Fateh 600ton class and one Besat 1200 ton underway right now).

They got no less than 21, 120ton midget subs and a bunch of Kilos too.

And those midgets can fire the Hoot too apparently.
->"(Persian: حوت‎; Whale) is an Iranian supercavitation torpedo which travels at approximately 360 km/h (220 mph), several times faster than a conventional torpedo.[1] It was test-fired successfully from a surface ship against a dummy submarine during the Iranian military exercise "Great Prophet" (پيامبر اعظم(ص) on 2 April 2006 and 3 April 2006.

The official Iranian news agency IRNA claims the torpedo was produced and developed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Most military and industry analysts have concluded that the Hoot is reverse engineered from the Russian VA-111 Shkval supercavitation torpedo which travels at the same speed"

So their threat to Hormuz is pretty real, if not brought on by their speed boat force :v:

Bip Roberts
Mar 29, 2005

Pimpmust posted:

Oh but it's performing its doctrine function, "Propaganda for domestic consumption", just as expected :v:

It's not like they can hope to match the American navy in any sort of stand-up fight so eh.

The thing is that Iran's navy is extremely important to Iran's defense and not just a paper tiger, it's just that they have no geopolitical interest sending ships outside the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. They're possibly the most likely country in the world where to get in a naval shooting war in the future. They already had one with Iraq and they could with any of the Arab states or the US in the future.

Lawman 0
Aug 17, 2010

Dusseldorf posted:

The thing is that Iran's navy is extremely important to Iran's defense and not just a paper tiger, it's just that they have no geopolitical interest sending ships outside the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. They're possibly the most likely country in the world where to get in a naval shooting war in the future. They already had one with Iraq and they could with any of the Arab states or the US in the future.

Well eventually they *might* want to do things in the Indian ocean but thats not going to be for a long while.

RoyKeen
Jul 24, 2007

Grimey Drawer

Dusseldorf posted:

The thing is that Iran's navy is extremely important to Iran's defense and not just a paper tiger, it's just that they have no geopolitical interest sending ships outside the Persian Gulf or Gulf of Oman. They're possibly the most likely country in the world where to get in a naval shooting war in the future. They already had one with Iraq and they could with any of the Arab states or the US in the future.

Their navy will be thousands of miles away I say this is the best time to attack Iran! Man, wouldn't they be embarrassed.
There's no real implications to this outside of Iran. No one really cares beside maybe some US subs tracking them without their knowledge.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009
I doubt they have the capability, but imagine if the US or Israel could sabotage the oiler in the Atlantic.

"Iranian fleet stranded, refueled and escorted to safety by US Navy."

RoyKeen
Jul 24, 2007

Grimey Drawer

The X-man cometh posted:

I doubt they have the capability, but imagine if the US or Israel could sabotage the oiler in the Atlantic.

"Iranian fleet stranded, refueled and escorted to safety by US Navy."

Didn't something like this happen already? I need to google.

Edit: I guess it was saving some Iranians from pirates
http://www.cnn.com/2012/01/06/world/meast/iran-us-navy-rescue/
Though, to be fair, the Iranians helped a US cargo ship being attacked by pirates later that year.
http://www.cnn.com/2012/05/24/world/meast/iran-pirates/

RoyKeen fucked around with this message at 17:58 on Feb 9, 2014

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Two days of UN food convoys and evacuations in Homs, and two days of those evacuations/food convoys being attacked. I've been collecting videos here and here, and the events have been filmed by multiple angles. For example, today the evacuation was hit by incoming rounds, the first of which exploded a few meters away from civilians, and was caught by multiple cameramen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA_dLqd0GG4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KebBQS9iMRY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viXb9RSp3rQ

The panic that followed as the UN vehicles arrived was caught from two angles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdulQoY1z2k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyejzanOY0A

Cosmic Web
Jan 11, 2005

"Stand and deliver, that my hamster might have a better look at you!"
Fun Shoe
According to Spiegel.de (google translate has to do for now) Germany's security agency has documents and audiologs which show that the Turkish intelligence agency MIT was involved in last year's assassination of three Kurdish activists in Paris.

The article states that if those documents are genuine they might rekindle the conflict between the PKK and Turkey and bury the ongoing peace process between the two for the forseeable future. The EU also won't be happy finding out that one of their applicant countries has been carrying out assassinations on their turf.

Toplowtech
Aug 31, 2004

Schisser posted:

According to Spiegel.de (google translate has to do for now) Germany's security agency has documents and audiologs which show that the Turkish intelligence agency MIT was involved in last year's assassination of three Kurdish activists in Paris.

The article states that if those documents are genuine they might rekindle the conflict between the PKK and Turkey and bury the ongoing peace process between the two for the forseeable future. The EU also won't be happy finding out that one of their applicant countries has been carrying out assassinations on their turf.
Well, i think to remember that Omer Güney, the suspected killer apparently spent some time in both Germany and the Netherlands targeting PKK members so the German services would be well informed. One of the three Kurdish victim, Fidan Dogan, was a friend of both Hollande and Valls and of course Sultan Erdogan's first reaction after a triple murder was to ask Hollande why he was "palling around with terrorist". So it's not really a surprise Turkey would be behind the crime but it is a real surprise it's getting out now.

Toplowtech fucked around with this message at 06:47 on Feb 10, 2014

Pieter Pan
May 16, 2004
Bad faith argument here:
-------------------------------->

Schisser posted:

The EU also won't be happy finding out that one of their applicant countries has been carrying out assassinations on their turf.

Don't worry, humans have short memory. Russia assassinated Umar Israilov in Vienna in January 2009, but the Austrian prime minister (since 2008) is happily attending the Sochi Olympics.

kustomkarkommando
Oct 22, 2012

Schisser posted:

According to Spiegel.de (google translate has to do for now) Germany R's security agency has documents and audiologs which show that the Turkish intelligence agency MIT was involved in last year's assassination of three Kurdish activists in Paris.

The article states that if those documents are genuine they might rekindle the conflict between the PKK and Turkey and bury the ongoing peace process between the two for the forseeable future. The EU also won't be happy finding out that one of their applicant countries has been carrying out assassinations on their turf.

Yeah, this is not good. Everyone suspected as much but as long as it wasn't confirmed the pro-peace faction within the PKK could justify continuing the peace talks. If these documents are true the militant faction will not be pacified easily, the peace talks are already on the verge of collapsing completely as it is.

There was some speculation the murders could have been carried out by deep state remnants or Gulen aligned forces within the security services so there is a chance Erdogan could spin this to keep the peace talks alive, that is if he actually wants to. The MIT are run by a staunch Erdogan loyalist though, so if the paper trail is strong enough he may be all out of luck.

QuoProQuid
Jan 12, 2012

Tr*ckin' and F*ckin' all the way to tha
T O P

Brown Moses posted:

Two days of UN food convoys and evacuations in Homs, and two days of those evacuations/food convoys being attacked. I've been collecting videos here and here, and the events have been filmed by multiple angles. For example, today the evacuation was hit by incoming rounds, the first of which exploded a few meters away from civilians, and was caught by multiple cameramen

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WA_dLqd0GG4
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KebBQS9iMRY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viXb9RSp3rQ

The panic that followed as the UN vehicles arrived was caught from two angles

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qdulQoY1z2k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hyejzanOY0A

How do you collect all these sources on youtube, twitter, facebook and blog sites? It seems absolutely incredible that you are able to monitor these events.

I'm sure the question has been asked before in the thread, but your posts span hundreds of pages.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

QuoProQuid posted:

How do you collect all these sources on youtube, twitter, facebook and blog sites? It seems absolutely incredible that you are able to monitor these events.

I'm sure the question has been asked before in the thread, but your posts span hundreds of pages.

In the case of YouTube I scan the 1000 or so opposition channels I've subscribed to for interesting stuff. I also follow people on Twitter who I've found to be reliable sources of information, and I've developed a network of contacts, specialists, etc, which I use to find information. I'm extremely fortunate that something I started as a hobby is now my full time career, and there's a vast amount of interest in analysing social media for information on conflict zones. I've got a reputation for being a pioneer in that area, so it seems like I'm the first person a lot of organisations have gone to when they are looking into that area, so I'm now involved in all sorts of projects to do with that. For example, I'm currently working with the Carter Centre on their conflict mapping project, and I'm also helping develop a tool with another organisation that I'm very excited about, but can't discuss because I've signed an NDA. I'm also in the early stages of working with the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute on a project to do with conflict mapping using open source information.

The one thing that's really stood out in all this is how many organisations, and governments, are totally unprepared and unable to work with this vast amount of information, and how it's taken them so long to get to a point where they realise it's value, and are trying to figure out what to do. I think the whole area will be very big in 2014, and I'm looking forward to be part of it.

Saint Celestine
Dec 17, 2008

Lay a fire within your soul and another between your hands, and let both be your weapons.
For one is faith and the other is victory and neither may ever be put out.

- Saint Sabbat, Lessons
Grimey Drawer
Apparently a suicide bomb maker/instructor blew himself up and a bunch of his pupils-

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/world/middleeast/suicide-bomb-instructor-accidentally-kills-iraqi-pupils.html?smid=re-share&_r=0

BAGHDAD — A group of Sunni militants attending a suicide bombing training class at a camp north of Baghdad were killed on Monday when their commander unwittingly conducted a demonstration with a belt that was packed with explosives, army and police officials said.

The militants belonged to a group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, which is fighting the Shiite-dominated army of the Iraqi government, mostly in Anbar Province. But they are also linked to bomb attacks elsewhere and other fighting that has thrown Iraq deeper into sectarian violence.

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Saint Celestine posted:

Apparently a suicide bomb maker/instructor blew himself up and a bunch of his pupils-

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/world/middleeast/suicide-bomb-instructor-accidentally-kills-iraqi-pupils.html?smid=re-share&_r=0

BAGHDAD — A group of Sunni militants attending a suicide bombing training class at a camp north of Baghdad were killed on Monday when their commander unwittingly conducted a demonstration with a belt that was packed with explosives, army and police officials said.

The militants belonged to a group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, which is fighting the Shiite-dominated army of the Iraqi government, mostly in Anbar Province. But they are also linked to bomb attacks elsewhere and other fighting that has thrown Iraq deeper into sectarian violence.

If true that is pretty ironic. Like a perfect real life depiction of that comic which has circled the web for years.

limited
Dec 10, 2005
Limited Sanity

Saint Celestine posted:

Apparently a suicide bomb maker/instructor blew himself up and a bunch of his pupils-

Man, a class where you want to get picked last? There's a refreshing take on schooling.

AVeryLargeRadish
Aug 19, 2011

I LITERALLY DON'T KNOW HOW TO NOT BE A WEIRD SEXUAL CREEP ABOUT PREPUBESCENT ANIME GIRLS, READ ALL ABOUT IT HERE!!!

Saint Celestine posted:

Apparently a suicide bomb maker/instructor blew himself up and a bunch of his pupils-

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/11/world/middleeast/suicide-bomb-instructor-accidentally-kills-iraqi-pupils.html?smid=re-share&_r=0

BAGHDAD — A group of Sunni militants attending a suicide bombing training class at a camp north of Baghdad were killed on Monday when their commander unwittingly conducted a demonstration with a belt that was packed with explosives, army and police officials said.

The militants belonged to a group known as the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, which is fighting the Shiite-dominated army of the Iraqi government, mostly in Anbar Province. But they are also linked to bomb attacks elsewhere and other fighting that has thrown Iraq deeper into sectarian violence.

This sounds like a Monty Python sketch or something, holy poo poo. :laffo:

Nckdictator
Sep 8, 2006
Just..someone
We're counting Iran as part of the Middle East , right?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/02/iranian-poet-executed-waging-war-god-201421043119959262.html

quote:

Death sentence carried out on ethnic Arab Hashem Shaabani, accused of being an "enemy of God" and a threat to security.

An Arab-Iranian poet and human rights activist, Hashem Shaabani, has been executed for being an "enemy of God" and threatening national security, according to local human rights groups.

Shaabani and a man named Hadi Rashedi were hanged in unidentified prison on January 27, rights groups have said.

Shaabani, who spoke out against the treatment of ethnic Arabs in the province of Khuzestan, had been in prison since February or March 2011 after being arrested for being a Mohareb, or "enemy of God".

Last July, the Islamic Revolutionary Tribunal found Shaabani and 13 other people guilty of "waging war on God" and spreading "corruption on earth".

The 32-year-old was the founder of Dialogue Institute and was popular for his Arabic and Persian poems. In 2012, he appeared on Iran's state-owned Press TV, where human rights groups say he was forced to confess to "separatist terrorism".

According to BBC Persian, officials from the Ministry of Information informed the condemned men's families that they had been hanged, and they would be subsequently informed on the location of the men's burial site.

Shaabani was moved from the area to an unspecified prison before his death, it was reported.

Iran executed 40 people over two weeks of that month, according to Amnesty International. According to the Iran Human Rights Documentation Centre (IHRDC) more than 300 people have been executed since Hasan Rouhani became president in August.

In the past, Tehran has said the death penalty was essential to maintain law and order, and that it was applied only after exhaustive judicial proceedings. Most of the executions in January were for drug related offences, according to Amnesty.

gimpfarfar
Jan 25, 2006

It's time to play Spot the Looney!
Frontline has another piece on Syria airing tonight, and it should be up on the web for the rest of the world tomorrow:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/

It's a view on the Syrian conflict, told from the perspective of the children - guaranteed to contain a boatload of :smith:.
There's also some new articles on the current state of affairs, as well as writeup on the rebels' struggle against ISIS.

gimpfarfar fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Feb 11, 2014

Aurubin
Mar 17, 2011

I dunno how much clout Foreign Affairs magazine has, but this was an interesting article, sensationalized headline aside, on how Erdogan is courting the military for a quid pro quo as the Gulenist alliance falls apart. Going by Turkish history, this will probably end well.

Linked because it's got a registration wall to read the whole thing:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140726/halil-karaveli/erdogan-loses-it

Bait and Swatch
Sep 5, 2012

Join me, Comrades
In the Star Citizen D&D thread

suboptimal posted:

This is a really good article about Al-Qaeda in 2014, but it's too long to copy/paste here. It's worth your time, though. It corresponds with a lot of what I think about AQ and militant Islam in this day- namely, pivoting back to fighting their traditional enemies (domestic regimes a la the Egyptian military, Assad, etc.) rather than aiming their resources at the West, etc.

That was a good read. He leaves out a few things, such as lingering suspicion regarding Zawahiri's involvement in Abdullah Azzams death, the fact that Zawahiri took power rather than received it and the rumors that Abu Dua of ISIS tried to get the other affiliates to join under their banners in Sep/Oct 2013.
Zawahiri has lost the networks and the assessment that he's aiming for spiritual guide is accurate, as it seems like it's the only card he has left to play.

Goatse James Bond
Mar 28, 2010

If you see me posting please remind me that I have Charlie Work in the reports forum to do instead

Aurubin posted:

I dunno how much clout Foreign Affairs magazine has, but this was an interesting article, sensationalized headline aside, on how Erdogan is courting the military for a quid pro quo as the Gulenist alliance falls apart. Going by Turkish history, this will probably end well.

Linked because it's got a registration wall to read the whole thing:

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/140726/halil-karaveli/erdogan-loses-it

Given his past relations with the Turkish military, I fully expect their response to be "nah, we have the utmost respect for you and wouldn't want to interfere in your running of the country. We're sure you'll be fine."

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Interesting development in regards to a series of leaked phone calls between Erdogan and various media heads

quote:

Turkey Leader Called to Lean On Media Boss
Erdogan Admits to Calling to Complain About TV Headlines

Recordings allegedly showing government officials calling media bosses to demand changes to news coverage have surfaced on the Internet, prompting Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan to admit Tuesday that he made one such call.

The recordings that have appeared on YouTube over the past week purport to be telephone conversations between executives at a Turkish media conglomerate, Ciner Yayin Holding, and government officials.

On the audio files, posted anonymously, aggrieved voices demand such things as the removal of unflattering stories posted online or the changing of headlines, or that news programs cut away from opposition lawmakers' speeches.

In each case the interlocutor apparently agrees to communicate the orders to the responsible editor.

On Tuesday, Mr. Erdogan said that he made one of the calls, to Mehmet Fatih Sarac, deputy chairman of Ciner Yayin.

At a news conference with his Spanish counterpart, Mr. Erdogan said he wanted Haberturk TV, one of the company's outlets, to remove headlines running under a speech of an opposition leader, which he said amounted to an insult.

"Yes, I made the call. Because there were insults against us, against the prime minister, and they did what was necessary," Mr. Erdogan said in televised remarks from Ankara. "We have to also teach them these things. Because the insults weren't normal," Mr. Erdogan said. (cont)

Here's the leaked phone call

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qN5vioa1u2Q

There's 3 other leaked phone calls for Erdogan on the channel, as well as many more, so it does make you wonder if all the videos on that channel are in fact the real deal now Ergodan has admitted one is.

BabyChoom
Jan 7, 2014

by XyloJW
Who is leaking, or rather spying on Erdogan and recording his phone calls? Are the telecommunication owners against him? Isn't that illegal? Or is it the NSA? Seriously the person who is tapping his phone should be sent to jail. Also it isn't antidemocratic to ask others to change titles. What is antidemocratic is to use force to stifle free speech.

BTW where are the english subtitles to the video? It's pretty hard to know what's happening if the only closed caption option is russian. Was it a Russian individual who uploaded it?

Volkerball
Oct 15, 2009

by FactsAreUseless

gimpfarfar posted:

Frontline has another piece on Syria airing tonight, and it should be up on the web for the rest of the world tomorrow:

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/

It's a view on the Syrian conflict, told from the perspective of the children - guaranteed to contain a boatload of :smith:.
There's also some new articles on the current state of affairs, as well as writeup on the rebels' struggle against ISIS.

This is up in full now. One special is on rebels siding together during the push against ISIS. The second one on children is specifically children living in Aleppo currently. One of them was friends with the little girl from that video where she was singing right up until a shell landed next to her. Both of the kids were fine, and the little girl is evidently in Qatar now. No gore, but this is still a tough watch. These kids have a lot of heart.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/syrias-second-front/#b

Rosscifer
Aug 3, 2005

Patience

BabyChoom posted:

Are the telecommunication owners against him?

Well he has been threatening and blackmailing them for years but other than that I can't see why they wouldn't love their Islamist Prime Minister they can't criticize.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

I'm not sure this is the sort of group activity I would encourage my own child to take part in with other kids

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH3a87_29Lo

Bonus points to anyone who can spot the other interesting thing in this video.

Miltank
Dec 27, 2009

by XyloJW
I assume the English lettering on the mortar cases is just a lingua franca thing and isn't necessarily significant?

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Miltank posted:

I assume the English lettering on the mortar cases is just a lingua franca thing and isn't necessarily significant?

Yeah, it's really common, and it's always amusing to see conspiracy types frothing at the mouth claiming English must mean the US are supplying arms.

CeeJee
Dec 4, 2001
Oven Wrangler
Does the LOT.5/2012 mean the rounds were manufactured in 2012 ?

Looking for 'M48 120mm ammo' leads to http://elbitsystems.com/Elbitmain/files/120mm_Bombs.pdf from an Israeli company.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

A well-connected journalist has just sent me an article he's written on the Yabrod offensive, that began to, a major offensive near the Lebanese border. His contacts in the government operations center has given him details that include

quote:

- Advance against Yabrud will be on 6 axes around the city;
- Burkan (Volcano), artillery, tanks, air raids and Special Forces all deployed in the battle of Qalamoun
- Yabrud battle is supposed to end in less than a month at most
- The timing of the start of the attack coincided with the anniversary of the assassination of Imad Mughniyeh
There's more details here.

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Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

CeeJee posted:

Does the LOT.5/2012 mean the rounds were manufactured in 2012 ?

Looking for 'M48 120mm ammo' leads to http://elbitsystems.com/Elbitmain/files/120mm_Bombs.pdf from an Israeli company.

The "Lot" markings, and M48, indicate it's an Iranian munition. Since sanctions are in place against Iran, mortars manufactured in 2012 really shouldn't be reaching Syria.

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