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The Brown Menace
Dec 24, 2010

Now comes in all colors.


The X-man cometh posted:

The coup-created governments had as much corruption and repression as Erdogan, with unelected officials who weren't afraid of the electorate.

Repression? Yes. Corruption? No. The sheer scale of it is unprecedented at this point. And Erdogan isn't afraid of the electorate either, the country has been polarized enough (at this point it is unrealistic to expect anyone to change sides) where he solely relies on his electoral base combined with his make-shift alliance with the HDP/BDP at the expense of everyone else, which is more or less the source of all problems.

Anyway no the army will not step in.

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nigel thornberry
Jul 29, 2013

Looks like Libya is gearing up for another civil war. This article says there are only pockets of Islamist radicals, but how do you come to lead congress with only pockets of support? Is it like a Muslim Brotherhood kind of thing, where they are a minority but still have the most seats?

the guardian posted:

The ousting of Libya's prime minister, who fled to Europe this week, has triggered fighting between eastern and western regions that threatens to divide the country.

Ali Zeidan, a popular figure with western diplomats, was sacked by the Islamist-led congress on Tuesday after failing to prevent a North Korean tanker loading oil from a port controlled by rebels in the eastern region of Cyrenaica.

Fearing arrest following his dismissal, Zeidan made a late-night escape from Tripoli aboard a private jet, leaving behind a fractured government and a country in turmoil, fighting over its rich oil resources.

Libya has Africa's largest oil reserves, but production has plummeted since the summer, when a self-declared federalist government was formed in Cyrenaica, which blockaded key oil terminals.

The rebels' argument is that much of Libya's oil is produced in the east but the revenue flows to Tripoli in the west; they have demanded a larger share of the income in return for lifting the blockade.

Oil revenue is almost the only source of income for a country that – three years after Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in the Nato-backed Arab spring revolution – is characterised by militia violence, a moribund economy and pockets of Islamist radicalism.

The day after Zeidan's removal, the powerful Misrata militia, allied to congress, launched an offensive to retake the blockaded oil terminals, storming the base of an army special forces unit – the Zawiya Martyrs brigade – in the central city of Sirte, leaving five people dead.

Within hours, federalist militias, backed by some units from Libya's small regular army, had set up a defence line at the Red Wadi, a natural feature that blocks the way to the oil ports.

The congress leader and de facto president, Nuri Abu Sahmain, quickly denounced the rebels as lawbreakers and set a two-week deadline for them to clear the ports or face attack by Misratan forces.

This produced an equally fiery response from the federalists. "Baqua forces are fighting alongside Zawiya Martyrs," said spokesman Senussi El-Megrabi, using the Arabic name for Cyrenaica. "We are assembling a large force to protect the ports. If they are attacked, it will be civil war."

The federalists are confident of success, because the congress itself is under pressure, having drawn protests from across the country for its decision to stay in office beyond its original mandate, which expired last month. Elections are not planned before the summer.

Many in the eastern capital of Benghazi are braced for clashes. "There's tension everywhere on the streets," said one resident, a businessman who asked not to be named. "Everyone is preparing for war. Troops are gathering at the Red Wadi."

Outside analysts say the removal of Zeidan may have cut away the middle ground for a compromise. "You're getting quite close to the point where eastern Libya says this is UDI [unilateral declaration of independence]," said John Hamilton, a London-based oil analyst.

In the east, rebel forces hope to have the support of the air force, three air bases having effectively mutinied and joined with a former general, Khalifa Hiftar, who last month called for congress to be removed by force.

Having shipped their first consignment of oil, the federalists said more was planned. "Another tanker will be loading from the port of Tobruk in the next few days," said El-Megrabi.

The international response has so far been muted. Britain and the US have issued statements opposing federalist attempts to sell oil independently, but diplomats say their political leverage is limited to offering mediation between the factions.

"With control of the central government and Libya's oil at stake, all these groups, rivalries and alliances of convenience are coming to the fore. What happens next will be violent," said Geoff Porter of British security firm North Africa Risk Consulting

nigel thornberry fucked around with this message at 20:17 on Mar 13, 2014

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!
The new Egyptian presidential election law passed recently, and it's proven to be quite the sham.



First off, the presidential election committee, formed by order of interim president Adly Mansour and composed of high-ranking judges from multiple courts, has the responsibility of setting the new presidential election law, managing the election, deciding it's time-frame and declaring a winner.

First problem? This executive committee has made itself and it's decisions immune to overrule by any executive, legislative, or judicial authority in Egypt. Even worse, it's also decided that all appeals regarding it's decisions are to be ruled over by the self-same committee. This on it's own is unconstitutional as the constitution strictly prohibits such immunity in any executive branch of government. They don't seem to mind it that much though!

Moving on, the main conditions for applying to the presidency include gathering at least 25,000 petitions from supporters around the country backing the candidate's bid. It also places a cap of 20 million EGP (~ $3 million USD) on campaign spending. Sources of spending are the candidate's own wealth, as well as donations from real Egyptian persons, that can not exceed 2% of the cap for any single person. This money should be transferred to a bank account for the specific purpose of the campaign, and the committee should be notified immediately of any new donations, their origin, and what the money is being spent on.

Arguably the most controversial article of the law is the provision for single candidacy. Basically, if there's only one candidate, the population just gets to vote on that person. Not even a referendum, just a piece of paper with that candidate's face and a tick-box. Even worse? This candidate automatically wins if at least 5% of the eligible voting population shows up.



Right now, Sisi's ridiculous propaganda campaign seems overblown. It's obvious no one will run against him. Samy Anan (former army chief of staff, SCAF era, removed when Morsi was elected) was a possible candidate until today, when he announced he would not be running anymore. Some thought he was counting on the Muslim Brotherhood vote, due to the "peaceful" handover of power to the MB in the SCAF days. There's rumors there was an attempt on his life, but it hasn't really been substantiated.



The other big candidate is Hamdeen Sabbahi, a neo-nasserist/socialist who came in third in the preliminary round of the last elections. Back then he had pretty positive media backing, and it only got him so far against Morsi and Shafik.

Yet even Hamdeen is now considering backing out due to the immunity article in this law.



Meanwhile, Sisi is busy curing AIDS, Hep C, all viruses known to man, diabetes, cancer and leprosy with the miraculous CC-Device, set to begin operation on the 30th of June, well past the presidential elections. What else? He's also initiated a massive $40 billion USD construction contract with UAE construction firm Arabtec to build one million housing units in Egypt for the "youth". The project will begin immediately after the presidential elections, and will be fulfilled in 4 years. That's about 28 buildings constructed per hour.

Ham fucked around with this message at 22:10 on Mar 13, 2014

Zudgemud
Mar 1, 2009
Grimey Drawer

Ham posted:

Meanwhile, Sisi is busy curing AIDS, Hep C, all viruses known to man, diabetes, cancer and leprosy with the miraculous CC-Device, set to begin operation on the 30th of June, well past the presidential elections. What else? He's also initiated a massive $40 billion USD construction contract with UAE construction firm Arabtec to build one million housing units in Egypt for the "youth". The project will begin immediately after the presidential elections, and will be fulfilled in 4 years. That's about 28 buildings constructed per hour.

Sweden did this during 10 years during 1965-1975, considering advancement in prefab building techniques since then and enough cheap labour i guess it could be doable, unless the money disappears on the way, and they are not allowed to skimp on some quality. I have no idea of what Sweden's project cost but the buildings themselves are today mostly ranked as substandard, though at the time they were a significant improvement.

Miruvor
Jan 19, 2007
Pillbug
Was that $40 billion part of GCC donations that ended up in Sisi's pocket as soon as it was clear no one was going to care about him couping Morsi?

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Miruvor posted:

Was that $40 billion part of GCC donations that ended up in Sisi's pocket as soon as it was clear no one was going to care about him couping Morsi?

Egypt has received somewhere between 30-60 billion USD so far, depending on who you believe. Most of it from Kuwait and the UAE. Saudi Arabia also financed a 1 billion euro purchase of 4 french corvettes for the Egyptian navy last week.

No one knows where all this money is really coming from or flowing towards, but the government is making a lot of noise about further spending cuts and tax increases, so it must be coming to an end.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.
Ham. No offense, but I think Sisi is the leader Egypt deserves. it's impossible to feel any sympathy or make up excuses when 99% of all media, intellectuals, writers, and every member of Egypts political class save one or two people turned overnight from democrats to slavish fascists or rolled over like cowards. It's impossible to come up with an explanation when the very people who shouted up and down about being 'revolutionaries' are silent and defeated when their friends are rounded up and imprisoned. It's impossible to feel any sympathy towards people who are willing to turn a blind eye and worse make excuses to pure mass murder because of the political affiliation of a certain group. I really cant. maybe another 30 years of mass torture and starvation and repression will make the people learn. An since Sisi is so cartoonishly stupid and brutal it might make it clearer for illiterates. but somehow I doubt it.

Yep. I've turned bitter. gently caress my life.

Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 06:09 on Mar 14, 2014

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

Zudgemud posted:

Sweden did this during 10 years during 1965-1975, considering advancement in prefab building techniques since then and enough cheap labour i guess it could be doable, unless the money disappears on the way, and they are not allowed to skimp on some quality. I have no idea of what Sweden's project cost but the buildings themselves are today mostly ranked as substandard, though at the time they were a significant improvement.

Cheap, lovely and substandard building practices have been the norm in Egypt for decades. There are loads of buildings in Cairo and Alexandria and doubtlessly the rest of the country that are "informal"- meaning they were built without authorization or regulation. Not ALL of them are death traps, but collapses aren't unheard of and seem to kill people regularly.

Also, in Alexandria, a lot of new high rises have just shot up in the past year or two, largely because of the lack of an honest regulatory system and sweetheart construction deals that put some money in someone's pocket but do gently caress-all for the populace. There are some people who are fighting to preserve the city's character, but with limited success.

I'm actually just wrapping up a side trip to Egypt to visit some friends as I make my way home from a trip to the Gulf and man, it was pretty bittersweet. Everyone I know- be they an Egyptian or one of the few foreigners left- has their own share of hosed up stories, ranging from having to fight off bandits and thieves when Mubarak opened up the prisons in 2011 while pulling the cops out to being at an improvised Brotherhood field hospital after the Rabaa massacre and describing how the smell of blood and bleach took weeks to leave their nose.

The level of pro-military fetishism is just stunning. Sisi posters are everywhere, and I saw more than a few banners calling him President Sisi already. Obviously those weren't put up by the government, but it just demonstrates the prevailing trend in the country.

Al-Saqr, back in 2011, I used to wish that the Egyptians would get the country they deserved, and now, I realize that they did. Now I just want my old friends and the smart, brave liberals I knew to get out and go to a country that will appreciate them.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Al-Saqr posted:

Ham. No offense, but I think Sisi is the leader Egypt deserves. it's impossible to feel any sympathy or make up excuses when 99% of all media, intellectuals, writers, and every member of Egypts political class save one or two people turned overnight from democrats to slavish fascists or rolled over like cowards. It's impossible to come up with an explanation when the very people who shouted up and down about being 'revolutionaries' are silent and defeated when their friends are rounded up and imprisoned. It's impossible to feel any sympathy towards people who are willing to turn a blind eye and worse make excuses to pure mass murder because of the political affiliation of a certain group. I really cant. maybe another 30 years of mass torture and starvation and repression will make the people learn. An since Sisi is so cartoonishly stupid and brutal it might make it clearer for illiterates. but somehow I doubt it.

Yep. I've turned bitter. gently caress my life.

I feel like interested foreigners are getting a distorted image of the situation, especially residents of the GCC. Everything you've said is correct, but it's not representative of Egypt in general. There is wide-spread discontent in the middle class and above, which is nothing to the current living conditions of the majority of the poor population. The reason why there is so much repression and abuses of human rights in Egypt right now is because they're completely opposed to the current regime and the media. Control is actually slipping even further from the government, with major strikes happening daily, as well as university protests. The establishment feared young people getting together so much they were actually considering cancelling this school term, but they went ahead anyway, and it's been chaos since then.

I just find your opinion defeatist. For all we know, the day Sisi is the only candidate in the election is the day the country rises up again. At least that's how I feel.

OwlBot 2000
Jun 1, 2009
Good post, Ham. People always have this weird idea that revolutions should go right the first time or solve everything, unless it's a failure. But revolution is also an opportunity to learn and adapt, and sometimes you need several revolutions against successive oppressors before you get anywhere. Wait 20 years before telling me whether they Arab Spring "succeeded" or "failed".

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Ham posted:


I just find your opinion defeatist. For all we know, the day Sisi is the only candidate in the election is the day the country rises up again. At least that's how I feel.

No you're actually right, I was just feeling silly and defeatist for a minute there and wanted to vent. you're making some excellent points that others also pointed out to me, the fact that Sisi is the only candidate and the fact that the repression is happening so brutally and such a wide scale and the fact that he's proved to be such an insane idiot with his promised 'miracle cures' and stuff will only bring about his fall sooner.

but the problem is that next time the nature of his fall wont come from the same people as before and wont be quite as peaceful as before, and the scale and scope of the fall has to extend not only to him but to every high officer in the Egyptian army, the ministry of interior, and the entire judiciary, business class and media must go with him, because they've proven to be beyond repair with the people occupying them as it is, so I imagine that the next time a riot happens, it will be a pure blind hunger revolution that will end up with alot of death and destruction, because anyone who could've led the movement towards more reasonable goals have either been killed, imprisoned, exiled or discredited, the Egyptian army have successfully taught the next generation of change-makers that the very state itself cannot be reasoned with or fixed, the way they've dealt with the jan25 sent a clear and stark message to society 'to get to the free country you want, we will be there to try and stop you'.

and that can only lead to extremely tragic consequences in the end when the empty stomach eventually overrules the false veil of patriotism, because then nobody will be safe from that explosion.

Or maybe a whole host of civil society heroes will rise before that happens? who knows.

Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 13:19 on Mar 14, 2014

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

OwlBot 2000 posted:

Good post, Ham. People always have this weird idea that revolutions should go right the first time or solve everything, unless it's a failure. But revolution is also an opportunity to learn and adapt, and sometimes you need several revolutions against successive oppressors before you get anywhere. Wait 20 years before telling me whether they Arab Spring "succeeded" or "failed".

Hopefully it doesn't go as brutal as our revolutions. Failed revolution in the 19th century, a succesful and a failed revolution but a failed state after WW1, pummeled into submission in WW2 and the new state founded after the shooting was over ended up being divided into two parts for decades.

And sometimes you get states like Russia, who seemingly just exchange one form of oppression against another, again and again and again.

I really do hope Egypt can do better.

Al-Saqr
Nov 11, 2007

One Day I Will Return To Your Side.

Libluini posted:

Hopefully it doesn't go as brutal as our revolutions. Failed revolution in the 19th century, succesful and a failed revolution but failed state after WW1, pummeled into submission in WW2 and the new state founded after the shooting was over ended up divided into two parts for decades.

wait I'm having a hard time recalling any German revolutions in the 19th century was it before or after Bismarck?

Libluini
May 18, 2012

I gravitated towards the Greens, eventually even joining the party itself.

The Linke is a party I grudgingly accept exists, but I've learned enough about DDR-history I can't bring myself to trust a party that was once the SED, a party leading the corrupt state apparatus ...
Grimey Drawer

Al-Saqr posted:

wait I'm having a hard time recalling any German revolutions in the 19th century was it before or after Bismarck?

The March Revolution, just google it if you want to know more. Also Bismarck was a political agitator during the revolution, if I remember correctly.

pantslesswithwolves
Oct 28, 2008

One wonders how much longer the Gulfies will prop up Egypt, and how they'll react to the spasm of violence that Ham predicts.

I'm pretty pessimistic about Egypt in the long run. Disentangling the security apparatuses from the rest of the state, society and economy would be a process akin to de-Nazification (:godwin: hurrrr) and I don't know if the government would allow (or is capable of allowing) any political force that would be able to do that non-violently.

Ham
Apr 30, 2009

You're BALD!

Al-Saqr posted:

it will be a pure blind hunger revolution that will end up with alot of death and destruction, because anyone who could've led the movement towards more reasonable goals have either been killed, imprisoned, exiled or discredited, the Egyptian army have successfully taught the next generation of change-makers that the very state itself cannot be reasoned with or fixed, the way they've dealt with the jan25 sent a clear and stark message to society 'to get to the free country you want, we will be there to try and stop you'.

and that can only lead to extremely tragic consequences in the end when the empty stomach eventually overrules the false veil of patriotism, because then nobody will be safe from that explosion.

Or maybe a whole host of civil society heroes will rise before that happens? who knows.


suboptimal posted:

One wonders how much longer the Gulfies will prop up Egypt, and how they'll react to the spasm of violence that Ham predicts.

I'm pretty pessimistic about Egypt in the long run. Disentangling the security apparatuses from the rest of the state, society and economy would be a process akin to de-Nazification (:godwin: hurrrr) and I don't know if the government would allow (or is capable of allowing) any political force that would be able to do that non-violently.

I feel that if the army was savvy, they'd recognize their predicament would only be worsened if Sisi was elected. They could just let Sabbahi win as a temporary band-aid, but it would take them back to square one and likely only give them 1-2 more years. No matter how long the gulf states keep funding the regime, it'll end at some point. The economy is actually doing so bad right now, they're drafting a law to tax the income of Egyptians living abroad, and Sisi is telling students they should stop being pansies who think only of themselves, and perhaps take a walk to university instead of the bus to help Egypt. :allears:

Unless the army reforms itself from within (quite unrealistic), there's probably going to be a populist revolution down the line.

Is there a history of peaceful military disentanglement in this region?

Ham fucked around with this message at 15:01 on Mar 14, 2014

Muffiner
Sep 16, 2009

Ham posted:

Is there a history of peaceful military disentanglement in this region?
The Middle East: Peaceful Military Disentanglements.

Zuhzuhzombie!!
Apr 17, 2008
FACTS ARE A CONSPIRACY BY THE CAPITALIST OPRESSOR

OwlBot 2000 posted:

Good post, Ham. People always have this weird idea that revolutions should go right the first time or solve everything, unless it's a failure. But revolution is also an opportunity to learn and adapt, and sometimes you need several revolutions against successive oppressors before you get anywhere. Wait 20 years before telling me whether they Arab Spring "succeeded" or "failed".

This.


Revolutionary France was across at least ten years. American Revolution almost twenty. Cuba in six. Sheila Fitzpatrick argues that the Russian Revolution wasn't over until Khrushchev.

"Quick" revolutions are a modern phenomena. I guess we can point to the various Color Revolutions in the 80s as giving us the perception that they can be done once and quickly. Occupy was, what? Three years ago? Accomplished nothing, but if something were to happen again and escalate in 2014 it would be included in whatever they would call the unrest thirty years into the future.

ecureuilmatrix
Mar 30, 2011

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

This.


Revolutionary France was across at least ten years.

Yeah, I have seen it argued that did not end until 1815/1830/1848/1870. And even then the Third Rep. was still wobbly for a time.

Man, that siècle was wild.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010
The part that worries me is that Sisi isn't just a dictator, he's the military's dictator. A major factor in the previous revolutions is that the military didn't really side with the leader; instead, they sided with the protesters and played major roles in removing the previous leaders. On the other hand, al-Sisi is the military's candidate and the military's leader, so it's more likely that the military will support him and crush all dissent rather than turning against him and seizing temporary power like they did against Mubarak and Morsi. Egypt's going full-on military dictatorship now, and a third revolution won't go nearly as smoothly as the first two, because instead of forcing Sisi out, the military will just shoot everyone protesting against him, much like they did to Morsi's supporters after he was removed. Any further revolution will be much bloodier than the previous ones and have a significantly lower chance of success.

Oracle
Oct 9, 2004

quote:

Occupy was, what? Three years ago? Accomplished nothing, but if something were to happen again and escalate in 2014 it would be included in whatever they would call the unrest thirty years into the future.
Apparently its not an if, its a when. And the when is April 4. The whole thing just makes me ask what if they threw a revolution and nobody came...

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Main Paineframe posted:

The part that worries me is that Sisi isn't just a dictator, he's the military's dictator. A major factor in the previous revolutions is that the military didn't really side with the leader; instead, they sided with the protesters and played major roles in removing the previous leaders. On the other hand, al-Sisi is the military's candidate and the military's leader, so it's more likely that the military will support him and crush all dissent rather than turning against him and seizing temporary power like they did against Mubarak and Morsi. Egypt's going full-on military dictatorship now, and a third revolution won't go nearly as smoothly as the first two, because instead of forcing Sisi out, the military will just shoot everyone protesting against him, much like they did to Morsi's supporters after he was removed. Any further revolution will be much bloodier than the previous ones and have a significantly lower chance of success.

I agree with your conclusion that the military will do shooting during another revolution, but I disagree with your reasoning.

Mubarak was a military dictator, 100%. He was airforce before he became president, and the military was always his power base. Its who he worked with, who he kept happy. The military didn't side with the protesters at all. They brought troops into Cairo to stop the escalating chaos that the police were clearly losing. Somehow the military/intelligence hierarchy decided Mubarak needed to step away for the rest of them to survive. The military didn't side with the protests- they saw the writing on the wall and didn't want to go down with their leader.

I don't know the dynamics behind the Brotherhood getting elected, but it seemed to me at the time that some sort of deal was cut between them and the military. Because the military always retained all the real power in Egypt. Morsi got to run some things, and took most of the flak for Egypts already crippled economy imploding, even though I don't think anybody could have rescued it. Morsi was actively working against the military as he was in power, while the military was preparing its propaganda. When poo poo hit the fan, well, we know what happened- the Brotherhood lost and lost big.

But through all of this, from Mubarak till now, there was never a time when the military was not in control. The only difference now is that they aren't behind the curtain any more, they're ruling openly. Which, as Ham and others have been saying, means that next time the revolution will target the military specifically. And god knows how that will turn out.

When I think about this stuff, I can't help but considering SA as well. The House of Saud is such a hosed up thing, and I've got to believe its only getting less stable with time. If that country were to fall apart, it would have repercussions on the order of Egypt's revolution and could easily re-ignite latent movements all over the region.

Spiderfist Island
Feb 19, 2011

Count Roland posted:

When I think about this stuff, I can't help but considering SA as well. The House of Saud is such a hosed up thing, and I've got to believe its only getting less stable with time. If that country were to fall apart, it would have repercussions on the order of Egypt's revolution and could easily re-ignite latent movements all over the region.

I know that the KSA's succession laws go by seniority, but which brother of the king is next in line? Is it the one currently in charge of their security apparatus? The sheer age of King Abdullah reminds me of the Emperor Franz Josef, and the KSA from my admittedly western perspective seems like it can't adapt much more to the times.

Munin
Nov 14, 2004


Spiderfist Island posted:

I know that the KSA's succession laws go by seniority, but which brother of the king is next in line? Is it the one currently in charge of their security apparatus? The sheer age of King Abdullah reminds me of the Emperor Franz Josef, and the KSA from my admittedly western perspective seems like it can't adapt much more to the times.

The current crown prince is Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud who is 79, already has a stroke behind him and is rumored to be suffering from the onset of dementia. The next candidate, and youngest in fact, after him is 69 years old.

With all these really old heirs and possible succession crises looming they set up the Allegiance Council to sort things out but that is dominated by factional infighting.

Zuhzuhzombie!!
Apr 17, 2008
FACTS ARE A CONSPIRACY BY THE CAPITALIST OPRESSOR

Oracle posted:

Apparently its not an if, its a when. And the when is April 4. The whole thing just makes me ask what if they threw a revolution and nobody came...

I'm really uncomfortable with people comparing Occupy with Tunisia, Egypt, Ukraine, etc.

OwlBot 2000
Jun 1, 2009

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

I'm really uncomfortable with people comparing Occupy with Tunisia, Egypt, Ukraine, etc.

Some revolutionaries in Libya compared Occupy to the Arab Spring saw it as part of the same global movement. But yes Occupy as a brand is probably toxic now.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Zuhzuhzombie!! posted:

I'm really uncomfortable with people comparing Occupy with Tunisia, Egypt, Ukraine, etc.

The tactics at least were quite similar, especially in Egypt and Ukraine. Camping out, "occupying" if you will, a central and visible part of a city. Very heavy use of social media for propaganda purposes. Not affiliated with any existing political party, or even ideology aside from bland liberalism. Young, leaderless, and often first-time demonstrators.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Count Roland posted:

The tactics at least were quite similar, especially in Egypt and Ukraine. Camping out, "occupying" if you will, a central and visible part of a city. Very heavy use of social media for propaganda purposes. Not affiliated with any existing political party, or even ideology aside from bland liberalism. Young, leaderless, and often first-time demonstrators.

Yes, I too remember when Egyptian protestors coordinated with cities to get protest permits and pay associated fees in order to camp out in protest zones through the winter, and then those that remained immediately gave up and declared victory on Twitter as soon as the cops showed up to disperse them.

enbot
Jun 7, 2013

Count Roland posted:

The tactics at least were quite similar, especially in Egypt and Ukraine. Camping out, "occupying" if you will, a central and visible part of a city. Very heavy use of social media for propaganda purposes. Not affiliated with any existing political party, or even ideology aside from bland liberalism. Young, leaderless, and often first-time demonstrators.

These are pretty weak unsubstantial similarities (and some are just incorrect), anything today is going to have social media used, youth is factor in essentially any movement, etc. I mean Ukraine, really? You'd really have to twist and distort some things around to compare that to occupy in any meaningful way.

Main Paineframe posted:

Yes, I too remember when Egyptian protestors coordinated with cities to get protest permits and pay associated fees in order to camp out in protest zones through the winter, and then those that remained immediately gave up and declared victory on Twitter as soon as the cops showed up to disperse them.

Yea, occupy only can only be compared in the most superficial way.

enbot fucked around with this message at 20:15 on Mar 14, 2014

JT Jag
Aug 30, 2009

#1 Jaguars Sunk Cost Fallacy-Haver

Oracle posted:

Apparently its not an if, its a when. And the when is April 4. The whole thing just makes me ask what if they threw a revolution and nobody came...
Seems like the Occupy brand has been completely coopted by Anonymous at this point. Not the best way to keep it relevant in the eyes of the mainstream.

Cocoa Ninja
Mar 3, 2007
VICE news has been firing on all cylinders covering the Ukraine, Venezuela and now Turkey protests:

http://youtu.be/wG1JndEu_0U

They seem committed to posting at least one update a day from one of these countries.

Count Roland
Oct 6, 2013

Main Paineframe posted:

Yes, I too remember when Egyptian protestors coordinated with cities to get protest permits and pay associated fees in order to camp out in protest zones through the winter, and then those that remained immediately gave up and declared victory on Twitter as soon as the cops showed up to disperse them.

I didn't say they went down in exactly the same way, I said there were similarities.

Traditionally you see more in the way of marches (as opposed to camping), strikes by workers, groups of people blocking traffic or otherwise interfering with business as usual. They also typically are organized by more coherent groups, like student unions or church groups or labour unions.

People camping out somewhere largely spontaneously and hanging out on social media is a very new way to protest something. Occupy probably wasn't the first to do this but it seemed to popularize it to the west.

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Count Roland posted:

I didn't say they went down in exactly the same way, I said there were similarities.

Traditionally you see more in the way of marches (as opposed to camping), strikes by workers, groups of people blocking traffic or otherwise interfering with business as usual. They also typically are organized by more coherent groups, like student unions or church groups or labour unions.


The thing is, those things and more also happened during Egyptian Revolution, unlike OWS. Tahrir Square was just a spectacle. The whole country was going up in flames.

Brown Moses
Feb 22, 2002

Cocoa Ninja posted:

VICE news has been firing on all cylinders covering the Ukraine, Venezuela and now Turkey protests:

http://youtu.be/wG1JndEu_0U

They seem committed to posting at least one update a day from one of these countries.

They're live streaming from Istanbul at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eimcSyd0zXY

Ofaloaf
Feb 15, 2013

How does a crew end up on one side or the other of the lines in an event like this? Also, I didn't catch the recap- is this Ankara, Istanbul or another city?

e: Okmeydani, Istanbul. I am a pro at reading the text at the bottom of the screen. :downs:

Ofaloaf fucked around with this message at 22:02 on Mar 14, 2014

fspades
Jun 3, 2013

by R. Guyovich

Brown Moses posted:

They're live streaming from Istanbul at the moment

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eimcSyd0zXY

It's live from the working-class Okmeydani neighbouhood, the home of the dead teenager Berkin Elvan. This is some terrifying stuff by the way. Okmeydani is home to a sizable Alevi Muslim community and it's also a place where there is a street presence of militant left wing groups such as DHKP/C. Three days ago an armed fascist mob from Kasimpasa tried to enter the quarter and a 22-year old guy (Burakcan Karamanoglu) died when DHKP/C opened fire. The next day the cops and special forces came with the same mob right behind them and there was tense stand off but they backed off and thankfully no-one was hurt.

Alevi Muslims has suffered several massacres in recent Turkish history so this is a very dangerous situation. If the government is pressuring the police to get the Karamanoglu's killers this won't end well at all because DHKP/C is not known to give up on situations like these.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Count Roland posted:

I didn't say they went down in exactly the same way, I said there were similarities.

Traditionally you see more in the way of marches (as opposed to camping), strikes by workers, groups of people blocking traffic or otherwise interfering with business as usual. They also typically are organized by more coherent groups, like student unions or church groups or labour unions.

People camping out somewhere largely spontaneously and hanging out on social media is a very new way to protest something. Occupy probably wasn't the first to do this but it seemed to popularize it to the west.

Spontaneously organized long-term camps are just as much a traditional part of protesting (though it was somewhat rarely seen, mostly for reasons of feasibility). During the Great Depression, for example, tens of thousands of veterans camped in Washington DC for over a month before the government sent the army to force them out. Most long-term, wide-scale protests that don't immediately collapse or get crushed by the authorities end up camping out until they get either what they want or a rubber bullet to the face.

New Division
Jun 23, 2004

I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.
Erdogan just called the 15 year kid that just died and caused more riots a terrorist.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26594922

Classy guy.

enbot
Jun 7, 2013

Count Roland posted:

I didn't say they went down in exactly the same way, I said there were similarities.


You said the tactics were quite similar, which they were not except in the most superficial manner.

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Paul MaudDib
May 3, 2006

TEAM NVIDIA:
FORUM POLICE

New Division posted:

Erdogan just called the 15 year kid that just died and caused more riots a terrorist.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26594922

Classy guy.

While it's obviously not classy, activists being labelled as terrorists or being monitored/suppressed using anti-terrorism assets and resources is pretty much par for the course across the world at this point.

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