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bbf2
Nov 22, 2007

"The White Shadow"

Adus posted:


Has throwing a challenge ever worked out in a tribe's favor?

In Africa after the tribe swap, Ethan and the other original Boran members threw a challenge to get rid of Silas since they knew he wasnt on their side and Lex/Tom were in their alliance on the other tribe and migjt be in danger.

That was the first time a challenge was ever thrown and the only time I can think of where it paid major dividends and helped the eventual winner in the end. In some other cases like Ozzy's Latino tribe throwing a challenge to get rid of Billy I dont think it really affected the decision maker one way or another in the end.

bbf2 fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Mar 14, 2014

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TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

Adus posted:

Has throwing a challenge ever worked out in a tribe's favor?

Russell's tribe in Redemption Island threw a challenge and voted him out. Then he lost the next RI challenge.

Adus
Nov 4, 2009

heck

TMMadman posted:

Russell's tribe in Redemption Island threw a challenge and voted him out. Then he lost the next RI challenge.

Well it worked to get Russell out but it kind of doomed them ultimately. That whole situation is weird. Russell was crazy but I'd want to keep him around if anything. He brought Foa Foa and the Villains back from really bad positions to the point where both finales were only members of his tribes but he never gets any votes either.

Forgot about the Billy thing in Cook Islands. I guess that really didn't end up mattering much at all.

JesusSinfulHands
Oct 24, 2007
Sartre and Russell are my heroes
It didn't help them much because they were outnumbered after the merge but I still maintain that Peih-Gee and Jaime throwing a challenge to get rid of one of Aaron and James in China was a smart move, even if Jeff was furious at them for doing so.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Deciding whether to vote out J'Tia or Spencer was not at all an obvious choice. If the tribes were to stay together together, it's true that they are MORE likely to win with Spencer, but it's certainly far from a guarantee and it's also possible to win without him.

It's also not clear if trying to win another challenge is even beneficial-- history has shown that tribes that have never or almost never gone to Tribal Council pre-merge completely fall apart at the merge (see the last 3 seasons for great examples). It's been said in interviews that you get really paranoid about your tribe and your alliance without going to Tribal to solidify that alliance. If they keep Spencer, win a challenge, and then Brawn goes to Tribal and solidifies it's loyalties you could have a big alliance in play at merge that will be harder to break up.

On the other side of things, while J'Tia is MORE likely to remain loyal to Kass and Tasha than Spencer, it's again not a guarantee and it's also unclear if Spencer would definitely flip. Furthermore, Spencer or J'Tia are only useful as an ally if they can make it to the merge, so you have to factor in the probability they get voted out in an upcoming tribal swap (again, not at all obvious who has better odds to survive a tribal swap).

There are also a dozen other factors at play here: quality of life at camp, attempting to seem less threatening as a group at the merge, and even silly things like thinking about who would be better to take to the Final 3 if by some miracle the three of them can get there. I ultimately agree that Tasha and Kass made the right call, but I see why they were so torn and I can definitely understand why they'd consider keeping J'Tia.

All that said, I think Tasha and Kass are both very bright and I think they are much better players than Spencer. Spencer does have his head in the game and his snarky confessionals are amusing, but he's also pretty bad at the social game and also a bit delusional. "These women have driven the tribe into the ground by voting out two men" is pretty boneheaded and misogynistic, given that he voted one of those men out and they also had their two best challenge performances right after voting out their buffest guy.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Adus posted:

Spencer is getting credit because he's entertaining and also seems to be a decent player. I know you don't like players who are sarcastic or smug, but I think there's a difference between those things and just simple self-awareness. There's nothing wrong with lamenting how much your tribe sucks when you suck as much as they do. Besides, I'm not sure what sort of big moves you are expecting anyone on Brains to make at this point, especially since things you could arguably call moves so far have only resulted in disaster. Spencer's biggest move has been proving himself to be decent in challenges so if that's kept him around then he's at least more worthy of being there than J'Tia.

I actually really have nothing against Spencer and I actually don't totally mind a smug/sarcastic player if he's entertaining to me (Rob C would be a good example of that). I may not want to see them win but I can enjoy the ride. To be honest I'm probably over compensating a bit for what I perceive to be a bit of a Cochran/goon thing around Spencer. That's not totally fair and I'll try and turn it down. Mostly I just haven't seen anything impressive or special about Spencer. On the other hand I haven't seen anything especially objectionable or stupid about him either. He's just kind of there for me. I'd be happy to see him make it to the merge and get a new hand in the game to see what he does with it, because he at least seems slightly more deserving than Tash or Kass for that. I guess I just don't see anything that really overly separates him from the rest of the Brain dead pack and think he's probably had a pretty solid hand in the tribe's failures as most of them have (but J'tia has had the largest) instead of the "unlucky victim who got stuck with these idiots" thing that seems to be developing online for him. But then there's probably that bias/over compensation thing, I admit.

But I also think that some of it is that I think Tash and Kass are being cast a little overly "idiotic" for trying to navigate between J'tia and Spencer who they don't trust and don't have much reason to. And as much as J'tia has truly sucked she has become a bit of a scapegoat for every Brains failure. So again, I'm probably just over compensating a bit to try and see Spencer put where I think he belongs with Tash and Kass.

STAC Goat fucked around with this message at 08:02 on Mar 14, 2014

Piell
Sep 3, 2006

Grey Worm's Ken doll-like groin throbbed with the anticipatory pleasure that only a slightly warm and moist piece of lemoncake could offer


Young Orc

mancalamania posted:

All that said, I think Tasha and Kass are both very bright and I think they are much better players than Spencer. Spencer does have his head in the game and his snarky confessionals are amusing, but he's also pretty bad at the social game and also a bit delusional. "These women have driven the tribe into the ground by voting out two men" is pretty boneheaded and misogynistic, given that he voted one of those men out and they also had their two best challenge performances right after voting out their buffest guy.

But they did do that! David didn't seem in too great of shape so that wasn't a huge loss but Garret was by far the most athletic person on the team, and that lack of athleticism really hurt them in the latest immunity challenged - Spencer had to get four of the five balls personally and throw them as well.

As far as keeping J'tia vs Spencer, here's the thing - no way J'tia is gonna stick around long after a tribe remix tribe goes together, she is incredibly vindictive and really bad at challenges, so she's an obvious target for an elimination in a pre-merge tribe swap. Spencer seems a lot more likely to make it to a merge.

As far as loyalty goes, J'tia ISN'T loyal. Loyal people don't destroy the tribe's rice in a huff. If J'tia feels she has been wronged in the tiniest way, she will turn on them in an instant, unpredictably. Spencer is safer precisely because he's looking out for his own interests - if you can get into the stronger alliance, Spencer will come along.

STAC Goat posted:

I actually really have nothing against Spencer and I actually don't totally mind a smug/sarcastic player if he's entertaining to me (Rob C would be a good example of that). I may not want to see them win but I can enjoy the ride. To be honest I'm probably over compensating a bit for what I perceive to be a bit of a Cochran/goon thing around Spencer. That's not totally fair and I'll try and turn it down. Mostly I just haven't seen anything impressive or special about Spencer. On the other hand I haven't seen anything especially objectionable or stupid about him either. He's just kind of there for me. I'd be happy to see him make it to the merge and get a new hand in the game to see what he does with it, because he at least seems slightly more deserving than Tash or Kass for that. I guess I just don't see anything that really overly separates him from the rest of the Brain dead pack and think he's probably had a pretty solid hand in the tribe's failures as most of them have (but J'tia has had the largest) instead of the "unlucky victim who got stuck with these idiots" thing that seems to be developing online for him. But then there's probably that bias/over compensation thing, I admit.

But I also think that some of it is that I think Tash and Kass are being cast a little overly "idiotic" for trying to navigate between J'tia and Spencer who they don't trust and don't have much reason to. And as much as J'tia has truly sucked she has become a bit of a scapegoat for every Brains failure. So again, I'm probably just over compensating a bit to try and see Spencer put where I think he belongs with Tash and Kass.

Spencer literally did 90% of the latest immunity challenge by himself. Also he did the smart thing and voted for the person who dumped out the rice rather than the tribe's physically strongest player.

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

Piell posted:

Spencer literally did 90% of the latest immunity challenge by himself.
He did and I give him credit for that. He absolutely carried that challenge.

quote:

Also he did the smart thing and voted for the person who dumped out the rice rather than the tribe's physically strongest player.
And he had the luxury of doing that knowing that it would put his alliance in total charge of the tribe if it happened and with absolutely no fear of Garrett voting him out next. We've been over this. Tasha voted out Garrett because he, Spencer, and Kass were clearly conspiring against her and she'd logically be the next one out. Voting out J'tia would have been going against her own best interests, regardless of how she felt about the rice or the tribe's chances with Garrett. You'd have to be an idiot to vote out the only ally you have when you have a chance of turning the power around at that stage. Even of Kass hadn't turned Tasha wouldn't have changed her position in the tribe because she was already on the bottom and Garrett's next target.

Kass voted out Garrett because he threw her under the bus and she decided he was a bad ally. She also realized that in allying with Tasha and J'tia she moved into a position of power over Spencer and she stood a chance to outlast J'tia thus moving up in the tribe from a shaky three to "final two". That's playing for losses but its not a terrible thing to keep in mind considering how utterly incompetent the tribe had proven up to that point.

You're entirely focused on the hypothetical edge Garrett would have given them in the next challenge when its entirely plausible it would have been meaningless and Tasha and Kass would have been the next two on the chopping block. Tasha and Kass were covering their asses. Spencer wasn't in that position so his decision making worked differently.

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

mancalamania posted:

All that said, I think Tasha and Kass are both very bright and I think they are much better players than Spencer. Spencer does have his head in the game and his snarky confessionals are amusing, but he's also pretty bad at the social game and also a bit delusional. "These women have driven the tribe into the ground by voting out two men" is pretty boneheaded and misogynistic, given that he voted one of those men out and they also had their two best challenge performances right after voting out their buffest guy.

He only voted David out because the numbers were against him. He would have either have had to go against the numbers and try to convince people to change their minds (very damaging to his position if he is unsuccessful), or draw rocks. Either position should be avoided at all costs in the early game. It's the same reason Woo said he was willing to turn against Cliff if that's the way the wind is blowing.

I also don't think Spencers view is misogynistic; it's just true in this case that the women of the brain tribe are absolutely terrible at challenges and had no potential for being useful in winning immunity. It doesn't mean he thinks it's true in general. J'Tia, Kass and Tasha suck in challenges, and Garrett wouldn't have. There's no reason to see anything more than that.

Anonymous Zebra
Oct 21, 2005
Blending in like it ain't no thang
Or Garrett could have done the typical "over-muscled dude withering when he has no food" thing that frequently occurs on this show. There is no guarantee the presence of Garrett would have changed those challenge outcomes. Especially when it's been pointed out several times that ALL of them were contributing to losing those challenge with J'tia just being a really obvious shitbird amongst a team of them.

Honestly, I'm really impressed with Tasha and Kass. They were put in a really lovely situation after the first vote because it was obvious that Spencer and Garrett had already picked a boot order and they were on the losing side of it. They didn't want J'tia but they needed her to stay in the game...and it's working so far. They are both playing a very Sandra-like game, moving alliances freely, playing each vote as best they can... which means half this thread is going to go apeshit if one of them wins.

EDIT: I predict the two of them are going to do very well in the merge when the other teams all pull out the knives trying to vote out their former teammates.

Narcissus1916
Apr 29, 2013

I'm sure the Survivor obsessives will disagree here, but generally I've seen Survivor seasons turn into two types

1) One or two alliances dominate the game, and all of the drama emanates from if the concrete will ever truly crack.
2) A major alliance falls apart around the halfway mark, and the entire individual game is batshit blindsides and ludicrous levels of complex strategy standing side-by-side sheer drat chaos.

My money is on #2 this season, just sayin'.

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

Anonymous Zebra posted:

Or Garrett could have done the typical "over-muscled dude withering when he has no food" thing that frequently occurs on this show. There is no guarantee the presence of Garrett would have changed those challenge outcomes. Especially when it's been pointed out several times that ALL of them were contributing to losing those challenge with J'tia just being a really obvious shitbird amongst a team of them.

Honestly, I'm really impressed with Tasha and Kass. They were put in a really lovely situation after the first vote because it was obvious that Spencer and Garrett had already picked a boot order and they were on the losing side of it. They didn't want J'tia but they needed her to stay in the game...and it's working so far. They are both playing a very Sandra-like game, moving alliances freely, playing each vote as best they can... which means half this thread is going to go apeshit if one of them wins.

EDIT: I predict the two of them are going to do very well in the merge when the other teams all pull out the knives trying to vote out their former teammates.

The boot order for the initial tribe in a 3-tribe game doesn't matter too much when a two tribe merge is almost guaranteed at some point. Not actually losing as a tribe is WAY more important than having a good position in the boot order, because going into the two tribe merge with numbers is more important than the boot order in a very early alliance that is likely to change later anyway.

Tasha and Kass have just been blundering their way through so far, making some pretty terrible choices. Luckily for them, it seems to be working out, at least for now.

I definitely agree with the Sandra comparison, but not for the reason you do...

sleepingbuddha
Nov 4, 2010

It's supposed to look like a smashed cinnamon roll

TMMadman posted:

I am 2 miles away from it.

See you in hell, buddy!

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

mancalamania posted:

Deciding whether to vote out J'Tia or Spencer was not at all an obvious choice. If the tribes were to stay together together, it's true that they are MORE likely to win with Spencer, but it's certainly far from a guarantee and it's also possible to win without him.

It's also not clear if trying to win another challenge is even beneficial-- history has shown that tribes that have never or almost never gone to Tribal Council pre-merge completely fall apart at the merge (see the last 3 seasons for great examples). It's been said in interviews that you get really paranoid about your tribe and your alliance without going to Tribal to solidify that alliance. If they keep Spencer, win a challenge, and then Brawn goes to Tribal and solidifies it's loyalties you could have a big alliance in play at merge that will be harder to break up.

On the other side of things, while J'Tia is MORE likely to remain loyal to Kass and Tasha than Spencer, it's again not a guarantee and it's also unclear if Spencer would definitely flip. Furthermore, Spencer or J'Tia are only useful as an ally if they can make it to the merge, so you have to factor in the probability they get voted out in an upcoming tribal swap (again, not at all obvious who has better odds to survive a tribal swap).

There are also a dozen other factors at play here: quality of life at camp, attempting to seem less threatening as a group at the merge, and even silly things like thinking about who would be better to take to the Final 3 if by some miracle the three of them can get there. I ultimately agree that Tasha and Kass made the right call, but I see why they were so torn and I can definitely understand why they'd consider keeping J'Tia.

All that said, I think Tasha and Kass are both very bright and I think they are much better players than Spencer. Spencer does have his head in the game and his snarky confessionals are amusing, but he's also pretty bad at the social game and also a bit delusional. "These women have driven the tribe into the ground by voting out two men" is pretty boneheaded and misogynistic, given that he voted one of those men out and they also had their two best challenge performances right after voting out their buffest guy.


There was really no reason whatsoever to take J'Tia. Even loyalty was a hollow reason because she's so loving batshit crazy that you're at an incredibly high risk of her pissing everyone off at merge, getting shitcanned, then following that path by association. J'Tia is Survivor Cancer and you have to cut bait on that as soon as you can.

Kass is a loving idiot who thinks she's the smartest person in the game. She seems like she lives to subtly stir poo poo up like Sandra but she lacks the street smarts to do it in a way that's not going to bite her in the rear end.

Spencer seems aware of his position and, IMO, looks like he could fit in wayyyyyyyy easier with the other two tribes than Kass or Princess Paranoia.

TMMadman
Sep 9, 2003

by Fluffdaddy

mancalamania posted:

All that said, I think Tasha and Kass are both very bright and I think they are much better players than Spencer. Spencer does have his head in the game and his snarky confessionals are amusing, but he's also pretty bad at the social game and also a bit delusional. "These women have driven the tribe into the ground by voting out two men" is pretty boneheaded and misogynistic, given that he voted one of those men out and they also had their two best challenge performances right after voting out their buffest guy.

His actual quote was: The worst part about being in this tribe is that the girls have succeeded in putting themselves in a power position. The problem is, by doing that, they have run the tribe into the ground.

It's a factually true statement and, except perhaps for using the word girls, I don't think it's particularly misogynistic. He isn't stating that anytime a woman gets to be in power, she will do something wrong. He isn't stating that he hates them because they are women.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

TMMadman posted:

His actual quote was: The worst part about being in this tribe is that the girls have succeeded in putting themselves in a power position. The problem is, by doing that, they have run the tribe into the ground.

It's a factually true statement and, except perhaps for using the word girls, I don't think it's particularly misogynistic. He isn't stating that anytime a woman gets to be in power, she will do something wrong. He isn't stating that he hates them because they are women.

Sorry, I didn't mean the quote itself was particulary misogynistic, just that the line left me uneasy in the context of some other things he said (like his line about having to be more emotional as the only guy left on the tribe-- because Kass and Tasha are the kind of people that will keep a man in the game for showing an emotional side :confused:).

I disagree with it being a "completely true" statement though. There were 3 challenges after Garrett left: the bucket challenge which they won anyway (and where Tasha/Spencer hurt them way more than J'Tia), the blindfold challenge where Garrett wouldn't have been helpful except for being not-J'Tia in the last minute of the challenge, and the swimming challenge where he may have actually been useful. "Maybe costing us 12 eggs and beating the tribe that was trying to lose at one challenge" is not really "running the tribe into the ground." The tribe was doing terribly enough with Garrett, voting him out had nothing to do with running the tribe into the ground.

Shakugan posted:

The boot order for the initial tribe in a 3-tribe game doesn't matter too much when a two tribe merge is almost guaranteed at some point. Not actually losing as a tribe is WAY more important than having a good position in the boot order, because going into the two tribe merge with numbers is more important than the boot order in a very early alliance that is likely to change later anyway.

This isn't true at all, since in a 3 tribe game the decimated tribe can easily act as kingmaker at the merge. There have only been 2 other 3 tribe seasons, and both saw members from the worst tribe go fairly far in the game because one of the bigger tribes needs to allign with them to get a majority. That's why 3 tribe games are so interesting, it's no longer as simple as one tribe picking off another because they don't have the numbers to do that.

Also keep in mind that, due to tribe balancing issues, the existence of a "decimated tribe" is very likely to begin with-- so a tribe that loses the first 2 immunity challenges definitely needs to be assuming they will lose the rest, and the goal starts shifting towards being the last 2 members of that tribe.

STAC Goat posted:

To be honest I'm probably over compensating a bit for what I perceive to be a bit of a Cochran/goon thing around Spencer.

As someone who liked Cochran a lot and is lukewarm at best towards Spencer, I don't think you're overcompensating at all. He passes the bare minimum "aware there is a game being played" test, but that's about it.

mancalamania fucked around with this message at 16:19 on Mar 14, 2014

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

mancalamania posted:

This isn't true at all, since in a 3 tribe game the decimated tribe can easily act as kingmaker at the merge. There have only been 2 other 3 tribe seasons, and both saw members from the worst tribe go fairly far in the game because one of the bigger tribes needs to allign with them to get a majority. That's why 3 tribe games are so interesting, it's no longer as simple as one tribe picking off another because they don't have the numbers to do that.

This isn't true at all, since being a kingmaker isn't a strong position. The decimated tribe may help one of the two larger tribes to vote out the other, but they are extremely likely to be eliminated as soon as that's done, since they aren't part of the core alliance (an example of this on a smaller scale is Jeremiah, who was the "kingmaker" in the last beauty elimination; he may have had that role in that vote, but if we imagine the game was just that beauty tribe, he'd be the first to go after he helped eliminate Morgan). Being one of the bigger groups is a much more favorable position than being the kingmaker group, and so the premerge strategy should be to ensure that this happens. This happens by keeping the tribe strong and not losing numbers.

Anonymous Zebra
Oct 21, 2005
Blending in like it ain't no thang

Shakugan posted:

This isn't true at all, since being a kingmaker isn't a strong position. The decimated tribe may help one of the two larger tribes to vote out the other, but they are extremely likely to be eliminated as soon as that's done, since they aren't part of the core alliance (an example of this on a smaller scale is Jeremiah, who was the "kingmaker" in the last beauty elimination; he may have had that role in that vote, but if we imagine the game was just that beauty tribe, he'd be the first to go after he helped eliminate Morgan). Being one of the bigger groups is a much more favorable position than being the kingmaker group, and so the premerge strategy should be to ensure that this happens. This happens by keeping the tribe strong and not losing numbers.

...and yet one of the two players from the decimated tribe last time did...hmm what was it?.....oh thats right! She won the loving game. AND the other person on that tribe was only eliminated because his former tribemate (the winner) voted him off. The two of them lasted until the endgame part of the season. Literally, of the two times this have ever happened, one of the times that person on the losing tribe won the whole thing. Making any calls about the "smart" way to play a three tribe game is incredibly pre-mature because three tribe games are really weird, and season after season has shown smart players from "losing" tribes go all the way to the end (and win!).

EDIT: For every Kim, Sophie, and Todd there is a Natalie, Earl, and Denise.

Anonymous Zebra fucked around with this message at 16:56 on Mar 14, 2014

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
"Keeping the tribe strong" is the obvious strategy, but it's also not a viable strategy for people who are not the strongest people in the tribe when the numbers dwindle. One of Tasha and Kass would have been the next to go if the Brains had kept Garrett, and Garrett wasn't an automatic "win every challenge until there's a merge" pass considering how terrible they were at the first two challenges. It's like when people got mad at Sherri for forming an alliance of the weaker people in Caramoan — when all the strong people have put you on the bottom of the tribe, are you supposed to just hope that you're not their next target for the sake of 'tribal strength'?

It's even more severe this season, though: when you start off with two challenge losses on a six-person tribe, you can't just play for the team anymore, because the odds of you being the next to go have gone up so much.

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

Anonymous Zebra posted:

...and yet one of the two players from the decimated tribe last time did...hmm what was it?.....oh thats right! She won the loving game. AND the other person on that tribe was only eliminated because his former tribemate (the winner) voted him off. The two of them lasted until the endgame part of the season. Literally, of the two times this have ever happened, one of the times that person on the losing tribe won the whole thing. Making any calls about the "smart" way to play a three tribe game is incredibly pre-mature because three tribe games are really weird, and season after season has shown smart players from "losing" tribes go all the way to the end (and win!).

EDIT: For every Kim, Sophie, and Todd there is a Natalie, Earl, and Denise.

This is a single data point. You don't need to restrict yourself to only looking at three tribe seasons to see the viability of the strategy you're encouraging (kingmaker decimated tribe), because for all intents and purposes it is the same as a kingmaker individual or small group at the final merge (or if there are splintered alliances in the smaller individual tribes). They are used by the larger alliances when they are necessary to have the numbers, but once the alliance they joined has the numbers without their help, they are the first to go. This has happened much more frequently than the Denise/Malcolm scenario.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
It is different in a three-tribe season though, because you're likely to end up with basically 2 smaller alliances within each tribe. In this season, you've got:

Jeremiah/LJ/Alexis/Jefra
Tony/Sarah/Trish(/Woo?)
Tasha/Kass(/Spencer?)
Cliff/Lindsey(/Woo?)
Morgan
Spencer?

Two minority alliances linking up is a lot more likely to be successful under these circumstances, not to mention the potential for swapping alliances later in the season.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!
I'm not surprised there are people sleeping on Spencer's game but if he catches a couple breaks he could turn into one hell of a player. A lot of the excellent gameplay we've seen has been subtle but totally on point.

Since landing in the bad spot Garrett put him in it's taken a soft touch to negotiate the waters. He's dealing with a lunatic in J'Tia, an incredibly unstable unreliable Kass if the exit interviews are to be believed, and Tasha who isn't exactly the easiest target to swing. A young guy giving the pre-season interviews he had you'd expect him to play it very aggressive, almost Russell Hantz style. Instead we've seen a shocking amount of self and game awareness as he gently nudged people toward the decisions he wanted.

For a huge fan of the show to demonstrate the restraint he has is very impressive. It seems like he's one of the rare fans that paid as much attention when Cirie or Yul were on screen as with Boston Rob or Russell Hantz. I'm eager to see what he can do given a larger group of players to work.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
I do think it's hard to knock Spencer for a gameplay perspective. Like, this post:

mancalamania posted:

As someone who liked Cochran a lot and is lukewarm at best towards Spencer, I don't think you're overcompensating at all. He passes the bare minimum "aware there is a game being played" test, but that's about it.

I personally think Cochran is a lot more entertaining/likable than Spencer, but from a gameplay perspective during their first time out, I think Spencer is outpacing him by far. He's kept his head down and plowed through a situation where he was dealt a pretty lovely hand, and for an arrogant chess nerd to have the presence of mind to turn down all of the abrasive parts of his personality (where Cochran really, really couldn't on South Pacific) is pretty impressive. There's probably a rush to overpraise him here because of the board's demographics, but there's not much you can say he did wrong. His worst move was probably, like, not voting out J'Tia the first round?

I feel like i'm the only person in the world who wants the Brains tribe to stick together, because Tasha/Spencer seems like it could be a solid duo and Kass/Spencer seems like it could be a bizarro universe version of Dawn/Cochran, where everyone in the world is the most sour human imaginable and they all loathe each other deep down.

Arcanen
Dec 19, 2005

xbilkis posted:

It is different in a three-tribe season though, because you're likely to end up with basically 2 smaller alliances within each tribe. In this season, you've got:

Jeremiah/LJ/Alexis/Jefra
Tony/Sarah/Trish(/Woo?)
Tasha/Kass(/Spencer?)
Cliff/Lindsey(/Woo?)
Morgan
Spencer?

Two minority alliances linking up is a lot more likely to be successful under these circumstances, not to mention the potential for swapping alliances later in the season.

Right, but you're projecting what we know onto the players in the brain tribe, who don't know anything about the dynamics of the other tribe. There's no reason that the members of the brain tribe should suspect that the other tribes have numerous small alliances, particularly because a large majority alliance in an initial small tribe is beneficial; it's unlikely that Brawn or Beauty will go to tribal that often in their current form, and so making as many people feel they are part of the "in" group is beneficial since it gives the alliance a greater chance at having a majority when it comes to the merge. If every alliance is at most 3/4 people, there's never going to be a majority at the merge. Since an alliance should be aiming at having a majority at merge, it would make much more sense for alliances in the other tribes to consist of everyone but one or two people, who the larger group agree will be booted if they happen to get eliminated. This isn't the case here, but the remaining brain tribe have no reason to suspect it's not the case.

quote:

His worst move was probably, like, not voting out J'Tia the first round?

He wanted to. There were 3 votes against David lined up. It was either make a strong argument for changing the groups decision in the very first vote, or risk drawing rocks. Either strategy is insane (in principle, though admittedly things would have probably worked out better for him had he done one of these) because you don't want to risk an elimination in the first round if you can avoid it by changing your vote, and you don't want to muscle a potential majority alliance either. So he went with the flow.

xbilkis
Apr 11, 2005

god qb
me
jay hova
I mean, they have no way of knowing that the tribes are quite as fractured as they are, but after 12 days, it seems like a safe assumption that there’s a majority/minority alliance on each tribe. The divide might be softer sometimes than it is this season, but it’s almost always going to be there to be exploited. With 6 people, the chances of a united tribe running through the game are lowered because everyone immediately has to jockey for position. With 8-10 people on a tribe, you have several rounds to “breathe” before a majority alliance has to even think about cannibalizing itself.

Re: Spencer – yeah, I didn’t mean to make it seem like that was a particularly bad move, more of a reflection that he’s done mostly everything “right.” J’Tia, at that point, was “the weakest member of the tribe” and “bossy,” which is a far cry from the “probably the worst challenge competitor of all time” and “insane” we ended up at. Pushing harder for her probably wasn’t worth the risk at the time, but in hindsight...

Rick
Feb 23, 2004
When I was 17, my father was so stupid, I didn't want to be seen with him in public. When I was 24, I was amazed at how much the old man had learned in just 7 years.
This season is a lot of fun. I sure hope Cliff Robinson makes it to the jury.

Zesty
Jan 17, 2012

The Great Twist
It's hard listening to J'Tia on her exit interview on RHAP. She has an inflated sense of her value.

"I'm not a weak player. I got two people voted out before me."
"I built the alliance."

STAC Goat
Mar 12, 2008

Watching you sleep.

Butt first, let's
check the feeds.

It would follow the pattern of Garrett and David also feeling they were the smartest ones in the tribe and did way more than the evidence would seem to indicate. In the end I bet there's going to be six Survivor losers all telling a similar story about how their brilliant game was screwed up by those five idiots they were put with.

sleepingbuddha
Nov 4, 2010

It's supposed to look like a smashed cinnamon roll
Predictable things tend to happen when dealing with extremely narcissistic people.

IRQ
Sep 9, 2001

SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

Met posted:

It's hard listening to J'Tia on her exit interview on RHAP. She has an inflated sense of her value.

That absolute shitbird being a nuclear engineer is the first thing to shake my faith in the idea that nuclear power is the only way to save this planet. I'm amazed she manages to dress herself in the morning.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

IRQ posted:

I'm amazed she manages to dress herself in the morning.

I imagine the process takes several hours as she fumbles and drops shirts, trips on laundry, then contemplates whether to eat or wear her shoes. She has to be up at 5am to be dressed for a 9am shift.

She also tends to dump out all the Raisin Bran, so that mess has to be cleaned up after work.

Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer

mancalamania posted:

It's also not clear if trying to win another challenge is even beneficial-- history has shown that tribes that have never or almost never gone to Tribal Council pre-merge completely fall apart at the merge (see the last 3 seasons for great examples). It's been said in interviews that you get really paranoid about your tribe and your alliance without going to Tribal to solidify that alliance. If they keep Spencer, win a challenge, and then Brawn goes to Tribal and solidifies it's loyalties you could have a big alliance in play at merge that will be harder to break up.

This is something that I don't think is stressed enough and is often overlooked. Until alliances are tested you have no idea if the people you're talking to are just blowing smoke up your rear end. Everyone talks to everyone. People get water together, they gather firewood together, they go swimming together, etc all day long. We know which of those conversations are strategy ones because they're the ones they broadcast, but if you're out there you have no idea whether they are plotting against you.

Until you have the first opportunity for people to actually show that they were telling the truth, you have absolutely nothing to go on but words that they actually are in an alliance. A tribe that never goes to tribal has no reason to trust each other.

Bright Future
Oct 9, 2007

[let's] fuck that crazy-ass robot

Met posted:

It's hard listening to J'Tia on her exit interview on RHAP. She has an inflated sense of her value.

"I'm not a weak player. I got two people voted out before me."
"I built the alliance."

Really, the best option for her would be to totally admit how terrible she was and chalk it up to 'oh I guess I'm one of those people who completely fall apart without enough food. Guess I'm not cut out for survivor at all." Trying to say you did well is really dumb at this point.

Ghostpilot
Jun 22, 2007

"As a rule, I never touch anything more sophisticated and delicate than myself."
That's assuming that we're dealing with someone capable of clear, rational thought. J'Tia is above such things!

Professor Shark
May 22, 2012

No mention of J'Tia stating that on one hand she hoped that her tribe would do well, but on the other she hoped they would starve?

J'Tia isn't just incompetent, she's also a lovely person.

Ror
Oct 21, 2010

😸Everything's 🗞️ purrfect!💯🤟


I enjoyed the first question from her HitFlix interview.

quote:

HitFix: How have your co-workers responded to "Survivor" J'Tia?

J'Tia Taylor: Some of them are very excited. Actually, nobody has said anything about "Survivor" J'Tia. I think they might be afraid of "Survivor" J'Tia. Nobody wants "Survivor" J'Tia to come out at work.

The nuclear scientists live in fear, cowering behind their reactors.

And hey, if you are really feeling bored on a Sunday afternoon, I have discovered that you can enjoy the dissertation An analysis of international nuclear fuel supply options by J'Tia Taylor online courtesy of her alma mater. 220ish pages! :suicide:

It's also further proof that non-proliferation specialist J'Tia might actually have no idea what an engineer is and just reads the word from her degree. I wish there had been a guy with a Ph.D. in physics so she could yell about why she was more qualified to build a shelter than a philosopher.

Huge Liability
Mar 2, 2010
I'm catching up late again. Was this the first time a tribe has failed to throw a challenge because their opponent is just so loving awful? It was hilarious to watch. This season has been a treat so far.

Can't wait to see if they vote out their only tribe member who can throw a plastic ball

e: At this point, I'm surprised they didn't.

Huge Liability fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Mar 16, 2014

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

Huge Liability posted:

I'm catching up late again. Was this the first time a tribe has failed to throw a challenge because their opponent is just so loving awful? It was hilarious to watch. This season has been a treat so far.

Can't wait to see if they vote out their only tribe member who can throw a plastic ball

e: At this point, I'm surprised they didn't.

Throwing the balls wasn't their issue. Fetching them was. That tribe could literally have been improved by an order of magnitude by replacing J'tia with a golden retriever. I bet the average IQ would have risen too.

IRQ
Sep 9, 2001

SUCK A DICK, DUMBSHITS!

The Lord Bude posted:

Throwing the balls wasn't their issue. Fetching them was. That tribe could literally have been improved by an order of magnitude by replacing J'tia with a golden retriever. I bet the average IQ would have risen too.

A golden retriever would swim faster than her doing, literally, the doggy paddle. J'Tia seemed to only be able to keep herself from drowning by slowly backstroking in the general direction of the pier. I mean, jesus, we say season after season how insane it is that these idiots don't take a weekend course on basic survival stuff like starting a fire, but how do you go on Survivor not knowing how to swim?

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Asiina
Apr 26, 2011

No going back
Grimey Drawer
Her swimming on her back reaching with the tip of her fingers for the ball (which always made it get knocked further away) was the best part of that challenge.

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