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pengun101 posted:I'll be the ignorant guy and ask why haven't any of the rebel groups killed Assad or his brother yet. I assumes it because he is well protected. I think a suicide bomber blew his brothers leg off like a year ago, but i am not sure. Sorry for my ignorance. An assassination of Assad would almost certainly require the assistance of someone within the inside of his circle at this point. He is very well guarded and does not go out particularly often anymore.
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Apr 22, 2014 00:19
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I'd be fairly certain that if there was any assassination plot against Bashir Assad, it would include Maher as a target as well. I'm fairly certain that if they could and maybe more likely, considering that Maher's family and therefore the most trustworthy to report to or plan with Bashir, they'd try to get both in the same room for a Wolf's Nest style bombing.
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Apr 22, 2014 06:46
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Iraq is in a mess that looks to be nowhere near resolving itself. The Anbar tribes are split into pro and anti-government, with the anti side content to work alongside ISIS once more. The Iraqi Army is increasingly unable to win sustained, direct conflict with ISIS and armed tribesman. Defections are also increasing, particularly due to the involvement of Shia militias and IA units from Babil province operating around Fallujah. The Shiite militias have mobilized, but seem limited due to many fighters having gone to Syria. Here's some updates on activities in key areas: Fallujah is largely controlled by ISIS and anti-government tribesman, though JRTN has released some videos of their ops in the city. ISIS took the Fallujah Dam and has destroyed numerous bridges in the area greatly hampering IA mobility and forcing them out of low-lying areas. ISIS has had the upper hand in recent engagements, with scattered fighting reportedly reaching western Abu Ghraib. Karmah is another acknowledged ISIS stronghold, though it has been for nearly a decade anyways. It's also the old stomping ground of Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. It serves as the hub for fighters and material coming from Diyala and Bayji, as well as across the desert from Syria. IA ops attempting to regain any type of control have had little to no lasting success. Ramadi has pro-government tribesman cooperating with the IA. ISIS is still offering assymetric resistance, but is suffering without tribal support. They are hoping that a major IA assault on Fallujah will result in the Ramadi tribes turning. This is unlikely, as many of these tribal leaders were granted positions of fake prestige in the Sahwa by Maliki(replaced many original Sahwa leaders), or are worried about repercussions from ISIS even if they were to turn. Its likely that Ramadi is the scene of a major retaliatory bloodbath once ISIS increases their control of eastern Anbar. Much of the Baghdad Belts are slowly falling to ISIS. In the south, Jurf al Sukr, Latafiyah,Sayafiyah, Yusufiyah (often called the triangle of death by Americans), al Owesat and parts of Arab Jabour are thought to be under ISIS and tribal control, as the IA has pulled back to Madain and Mahmudiyah. Badr and AAH are also holed up in these areas to prevent ISIS attacking what are now Shia-dominant areas. Most of the Shia south is quiet, though occasional attacks do occur in Musayyib and Karbala. In the north, Taji and its surroundings are being pressed by ISIS from the Karmah area and from Baqubah. Tarmiyah is likely back under ISIS control as well. ISIS activity in and around Baqubah had drastically increased, with sectarian murders widespread. AAH has conducted operations with the IA, which have only further pushed the local Sunni towards ISIS. Much of Mosul is an unknown, as ISIS killed 5 journalists off a 40 person kill list, causing all others to flee. The city seems largely isolated from the press, but ISIS is assumed to maintain a very heavy influence in the city. Some word did get out that government representatives at the neighborhood level were quitting due to a lack of protection against an ISIS assassination campaign. Baghdad itself has scattered violence, though it seems that the ISIS networks in North Karkh, South Karkh and Rusafa are in full swing conducting attacks. Supposedly a #GrandbattleofBaghdad was being tossed around by ISIS members a lot this weekend, so something may be in the works. Overall, the situation is pretty grim. It hasn't received much press, but unless Maliki pulls back from the path of being a dictator, it will dissolve into the same situation as Syria. If he lands a third term (used to be against the Iraqi constitution) Maliki will take it as a mandate, while even more Sunni will give up hope for a political resolution to the crisis. While the US has some leverage, it hasn't tranlated it into encouraging necessary reforms. The place is going to divide and the decision seems to be that its not worth the political capitol to try and prevent it. My worry with this is the huge amount of suffering amongst Iraqis that will follow and the broader regional implications. It will be decades before the dust settles.
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Apr 22, 2014 07:47
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Yeah, ISIS folk have been hinting at a major operation against Baghdad for at least several weeks now. It's clear they couldn't take the city, but in theory they could lay siege to several neighborhoods if they went all out -- which could still result in humanitarian catastrophe and political disaster. One interesting counterpoint you'll hear from ISIS supporters against charges of complicity with the Assad regime is that their actions in Iraq will eventually draw away Shia militia support from Syria. Namely, once they start really pressing Maliki in Baghdad proper and other areas, all those Iraqi Badr fighters in rif Damascus, Qalamoun, and other locales will be recalled to save their homes, thus weakening Assad's military prowess. It might be wishful thinking on ISIS' part, but there could be an element of truth to it. edit: Awesome update, by the way. No one is getting enough Iraq coverage. MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 08:28 on Apr 22, 2014 |
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Apr 22, 2014 08:23
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MothraAttack posted:Yeah, ISIS folk have been hinting at a major operation against Baghdad for at least several weeks now. It's clear they couldn't take the city, but in theory they could lay siege to several neighborhoods if they went all out -- which could still result in humanitarian catastrophe and political disaster. So with Syria, Lebanon and now Iraq the civil war has spilled over into three countries now? It keeps getting better and better...
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Apr 22, 2014 10:11
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Libluini posted:So with Syria, Lebanon and now Iraq the civil war has spilled over into three countries now? It keeps getting better and better...
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Apr 22, 2014 10:12
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Absolutely. An Iraqi friend of mine told me in early 2012 that, if the situation as it was then continued improving for the next four or five years, then a low-key trip to Baghdad/southern Iraq could be in our future. In retrospect, that's complete nonsense. The violence in Iraq is hitting a point to where it's been possibly the worst this decade.
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Apr 22, 2014 10:15
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Muffiner posted:Maher isn't the linchpin everybody thinks him to be, and has many enemies in both the military and Mukhabarat. If Bashar goes, they will have a very hard time replacing him and not losing a large part of their support base. Remember, he isn't an insider to the military like his father was, yet the cult of personality in the military rank and file outside the Republican Guard is wholly focused on him. Maher isn't that popular with the Mukhabarat, and the civilian side of the regime is a joke, so it isn't as clear cut as people like to say it is. That is a large part of how the Assads stayed in power and resisted palace coups for the last few decades. It seems to me all that's necessary to keep the regime fighting even if Assad gets taken out is the seeming impossibility of a negotiated end to the conflict and the near certainty that they'd be slaughtered by vengeful rebels if they were defeated militarily.
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Apr 22, 2014 10:28
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I've collected all the videos of recent chlorine barrel bomb attacks in this post. I'm working on getting some photos from the recent attacks showing clear views of the bombs as well.
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Apr 22, 2014 12:44
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The Insect Court posted:It seems to me all that's necessary to keep the regime fighting even if Assad gets taken out is the seeming impossibility of a negotiated end to the conflict and the near certainty that they'd be slaughtered by vengeful rebels if they were defeated militarily. Assad personifies the regime in it's current state; a corrupt and tyrannical government that has been ruling Syria by torture, cronyism, in-your-face corruption and a total disregard for human life. His removal would decouple the current regime's ambition to return Syria to the course it was on pre-2011 (with extra genocide and torture), from the myth of defending minorities, especially the Alewite minority. Decoupling the regime's survival from the security of minorities would mean that the reasoning of Bashar subjugating Sunni areas to defend the minorities and to ensure the survival of Alewites is no longer a reality, and would refocus the energy of pro-regime forces away from attacking Sunni areas and towards the defence and security of minority areas as they are no longer the same thing - They don't need to control and torture ALL of Syria in order to keep their home regions safe. And at this point, that is the only reason the larger bulk of native forces on both sides are fighting. Bashar is the only person in the regime who can both hold onto power and be a symbol for these two goals (control of all of Syria and the security of minorities), him no longer existing means these two goals are no longer one and the same for pro-regime forces. Pro-regime forces no longer have to murder, loot, pillage, rape, torture and force their will onto non-compliant parts of Syria, they have to treat them as equal and leave them be. This is an over-simplification of why Bashar is important, but the idea is he is the only person capable of being the figurehead of a Alewite regime that controls all of Syria, and his removal opens the way for a negotiated settlement between everybody on equal footing, without any one group being effective enough to occupy and subjugate any other. Not optimal, but better than inhumane and atrocious suggestions to keep both sides grinding at each other until the whole place is a fine paste.
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Apr 22, 2014 13:02
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MothraAttack posted:Absolutely. An Iraqi friend of mine told me in early 2012 that, if the situation as it was then continued improving for the next four or five years, then a low-key trip to Baghdad/southern Iraq could be in our future. In retrospect, that's complete nonsense. The violence in Iraq is hitting a point to where it's been possibly the worst this decade. But it's producing more oil...
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Apr 22, 2014 14:11
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The Guardian just published a piece by me and Dan Kaszeta on the Hersh story http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/22/allegation-false-turkey-chemical-attack-syria?CMP=twt_gu Unfortunately they actually managed to cut out Dan's half, which will now appear later today on a separate article.
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Apr 22, 2014 14:24
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Lots of speculation today that Abu Talha Al Almani, the German rapper-turned-jihadist formerly known as Deso Dogg, died a couple days ago in a Jabhat al Nusra suicide bombing against ISIS. Now some ISIS supporters are reporting that the dude actually survived, and that possibly another Abu Talha Al Almani was the real victim. This is, of course, in dispute. If this is the case, then his rep is only growing. Neither the (not so) mean streets of Kreuzberg, nor an airstrike nor a suicide bomber can keep that man down.
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Apr 22, 2014 15:45
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MothraAttack posted:Lots of speculation today that Abu Talha Al Almani, the German rapper-turned-jihadist formerly known as Deso Dogg, died a couple days ago in a Jabhat al Nusra suicide bombing against ISIS. Now some ISIS supporters are reporting that the dude actually survived, and that possibly another Abu Talha Al Almani was the real victim. This is, of course, in dispute. If this is the case, then his rep is only growing. Neither the (not so) mean streets of Kreuzberg, nor an airstrike nor a suicide bomber can keep that man down. Your move, 50 Cent.
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Apr 22, 2014 19:50
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suboptimal posted:Your move, 50 Cent. Fiddy has been there, done that. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qpze53LuDfM
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Apr 22, 2014 20:03
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suboptimal posted:Your move, 50 Cent. Feels more like a Kanye move, TBH. Edit: George Bush hates Middle Eastern people.
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Apr 22, 2014 20:06
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Unfortunately this Iraqi situation was inevitable whether we stayed there or not. It was just a matter of time before it went to hell and it's sad to see.
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Apr 22, 2014 20:59
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MothraAttack posted:Lots of speculation today that Abu Talha Al Almani, the German rapper-turned-jihadist formerly known as Deso Dogg, died a couple days ago in a Jabhat al Nusra suicide bombing against ISIS. Now some ISIS supporters are reporting that the dude actually survived, and that possibly another Abu Talha Al Almani was the real victim. This is, of course, in dispute. If this is the case, then his rep is only growing. Neither the (not so) mean streets of Kreuzberg, nor an airstrike nor a suicide bomber can keep that man down. Wait, you mean the Jihadist rapper was chilling with ISIS? What is ISIS' position on (non-chanting) music, anyway? I'm asking because I'm pretty sure the Taliban banned it, and while I know they are two very different organizations I figured they'd have similar positions on that kind of thing.
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Apr 23, 2014 03:29
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Nasheeds (the acapella chants you hear as accompaniment for jihadi vids) are like the one form of music that AQ types are okay with, so as long as he's not remixing with Skrillex I'd imagine they're okay with it.
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Apr 23, 2014 03:33
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Jonad posted:Wait, you mean the Jihadist rapper was chilling with ISIS? What is ISIS' position on (non-chanting) music, anyway? I'm asking because I'm pretty sure the Taliban banned it, and while I know they are two very different organizations I figured they'd have similar positions on that kind of thing. Well it sounds like the guy showed proper penance, presuming they were against that sort of thing.
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Apr 23, 2014 04:36
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Yeah, I think ISIS only accepts nasheeds and that Deso Dogg gave up the musical game entirely. Unfortunately for us, their propaganda is thus deprived of MIDI-scored gems such as those found here.
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Apr 23, 2014 04:59
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Brown Moses posted:I've collected all the videos of recent chlorine barrel bomb attacks in this post. I'm working on getting some photos from the recent attacks showing clear views of the bombs as well. Couldn't Assad just use white phosphorus like the USA and Israel have done and claim it is being used as a "smoke screen"? Couldn't he also use non-lethal crowd control gas such as pepper spray to flush out the rebels (who where rebelling against the US occupation and governance at the time) in entrenched positions and claim it as "crowd control"? Just as it's used in occupied apartheid Israel and the USA to disperse people? I remember a documentary on fallujah about how US forces dumped tons of white phosphorus to get the Iraqi rebels into the open so that they would be later mowed down by troops and helicopter gunships. I think it was referred to as "shake and bake"
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Apr 23, 2014 08:11
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BabyChoom posted:Couldn't Assad just use white phosphorus like the USA and Israel have done and claim it is being used as a "smoke screen"? Couldn't he also use non-lethal crowd control gas such as pepper spray to flush out the rebels (who where rebelling against the US occupation and governance at the time) in entrenched positions and claim it as "crowd control"? Just as it's used in occupied apartheid Israel and the USA to disperse people? Besides your non sequiturs white phosphorus has been used in Syria.
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Apr 23, 2014 08:15
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BabyChoom posted:Couldn't Assad just use white phosphorus like the USA and Israel have done and claim it is being used as a "smoke screen"? Couldn't he also use non-lethal crowd control gas such as pepper spray to flush out the rebels (who where rebelling against the US occupation and governance at the time) in entrenched positions and claim it as "crowd control"? Just as it's used in occupied apartheid Israel and the USA to disperse people? WP generates thick smoke that, being smoke, can cause irritation and eventually suffocation if people don't leave. Stuff like CS will irritate mucous membranes and, again, cause people to move out of it to safety. Chlorine will quickly eat away the inside of the lungs, maiming and killing people outright. I don't think the barrel bombs are intended to force people to temporarily leave the immediate area. They're meant to kill people.
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Apr 23, 2014 08:48
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Warbadger posted:WP generates thick smoke that, being smoke, can cause irritation and eventually suffocation if people don't leave. Stuff like CS will irritate mucous membranes and, again, cause people to move out of it to safety. White phosphorus can also burn itself through most soft materials including flesh, and easily can start fires. Let's not pretend the use of either one of them is humane. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 08:56 on Apr 23, 2014 |
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Apr 23, 2014 08:52
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Jonad posted:Wait, you mean the Jihadist rapper was chilling with ISIS? What is ISIS' position on (non-chanting) music, anyway? I'm asking because I'm pretty sure the Taliban banned it, and while I know they are two very different organizations I figured they'd have similar positions on that kind of thing. According to his Wiki page, he stopped rapping when he converted.
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Apr 23, 2014 08:59
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Ardennes posted:White phosphorus can also burn itself through most soft materials including flesh, and easily can start fires. Let's not pretend the use of either one of them is humane. I'd rather that we not pretend WP is comparable as a weapon to chlorine, in either application or properties. Setting a fire that may burn people or choke people with the smoke is awful. But it is not like a cloud of gas that quickly dissolves the surface of people's lungs. Warbadger fucked around with this message at 09:15 on Apr 23, 2014 |
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Apr 23, 2014 09:11
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Warbadger posted:I'd rather that we not pretend WP is comparable as a weapon to chlorine, in either application or properties. So the debate is which horrible death is preferable and thus "more humane"? Dying from smoke inhalation, burns from the WP itself or secondary fires is going to be extremely painful as well. Both are cruel weapons and if you are trying to split hairs over it I have to really question your motives. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 09:48 on Apr 23, 2014 |
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Apr 23, 2014 09:45
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Ardennes posted:So the debate is which horrible death is preferable and thus "more humane"? Dying from smoke inhalation, burns from the WP itself or secondary fires is going to be extremely painful as well. Both are cruel weapons and if you are trying to split hairs over it I have to really question your motives. They do entirely different things and are used for entirely different purposes. Dying from smoke inhalation is not dying from chlorine inhalation is not dying from drowning is not dying from being set on loving fire when an artillery shell lands next to you and attempting to draw equivalencies between these things is silly. Let me know when you find a non-cruel weapon.
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Apr 23, 2014 10:00
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Warbadger posted:They do entirely different things and are used for entirely different purposes. Dying from smoke inhalation is not dying from chlorine inhalation is not dying from drowning is not dying from being set on loving fire when an artillery shell lands next to you and attempting to draw equivalencies between these things is silly. Let me know when you find a non-cruel weapon. It is kind of funny your post ends with a equivalcation, but if you want to say all weapons are equally cruel through different mechanisms that is fine. However, it is in tension with your previous point. Btw I am not saying Assad hasn't wrecked far more damage with gases.
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Apr 23, 2014 10:33
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I've put together this playlist that shows the aftermath of a bombing today in Maliha, and how it effects the youngest victims of the conflict.
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Apr 23, 2014 13:29
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Warbadger posted:I'd rather that we not pretend WP is comparable as a weapon to chlorine, in either application or properties. I once read a report by a doctor who worked at a hospital in Gaza when the Israelis fired WP over a school there. An infant was hit by it and the WP burned into its body, and it was still burning inside when it arrived in the ER. They tried to submerge it in water to put out the burning fragment of phosphorous but water doesn't help so in the end there was not much to do about the infant burning up. I'm not saying one is worse than the other but things are pretty messed up.
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Apr 23, 2014 13:32
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It is, for all intents and purposes, a chemical weapon. Not all chemical weapons are alike, but all are designed to cause suffering as they kill.
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Apr 23, 2014 14:52
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Tias posted:It is, for all intents and purposes, a chemical weapon. Not all chemical weapons are alike, but all are designed to cause suffering as they kill. That makes TNT a chemical weapon, too. Definitions matter. Chemical weapons are those that are intended to kill by their internal toxicity. This includes Sarin and chlorine, but not white phosphorus. White Phosphorus is an incendiary weapon. Calling it a chemical weapon is deliberately misleading, purely for the enhanced emotional effect.
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Apr 23, 2014 15:18
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Ardennes posted:So the debate is which horrible death is preferable and thus "more humane"? Dying from smoke inhalation, burns from the WP itself or secondary fires is going to be extremely painful as well. Both are cruel weapons and if you are trying to split hairs over it I have to really question your motives. Yeah. Both are horrible, neither should be used. But, this whole discussion distracts from the point that chlorine gas is being used on people in Syria, which is the important bit.
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Apr 23, 2014 16:18
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Ardennes posted:It is kind of funny your post ends with a I think we can all agree that war is bad and murder is bad. I think we can also agree that suffering exists on a spectrum. But white phosphorus has absolutely nothing to do with anything in this thread, any more than lethal injection does, so maybe this isn't the place to whine about it.
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Apr 23, 2014 16:22
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I think it becomes less important to use area denial weapons to drive insurgents into the open when you're just willing to hose down the entire city with artillery.
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Apr 23, 2014 16:42
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Thing with the chlorine/ammonia attacks is the victims appear to be mainly civilians, it seems they're being used for punishment more than anything.
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Apr 23, 2014 16:43
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Chokes McGee posted:Yeah. Both are horrible, neither should be used. But, this whole discussion distracts from the point that chlorine gas is being used on people in Syria, which is the important bit. Obviously, but history matters and in this case, so does precedent and international response. Obviously, far more people have died in Syria from gas fired by the Assad regime but in the calculus of moralizing about response, previous use of WP even if you consider it is "just" an "incendiary," is something that should be talked about it. quote:I think we can all agree that war is bad and murder is bad. I think we can also agree that suffering exists on a spectrum. But white phosphorus has absolutely nothing to do with anything in this thread, any more than lethal injection does, so maybe this isn't the place to whine about it. That is completely silly, this is a thread about the Middle East and we are talking about the recent uses of unorthodox weapons against a built up urban areas in the Middle East. quote:Thing with the chlorine/ammonia attacks is the victims appear to be mainly civilians, it seems they're being used for punishment more than anything. Still it starts to split hairs a hit when you talk about civilians still being in Falluja at the time, even though obviously far more civilians died in the gas attacks. In addition, there is also simply the massive amount of causalities from all types of other death in both wars, and there is the separate issue of whether these weapons should be used in combat period. It is one thing to challenge who committed these attacks (it was Assad, no question), but it is entire other thing to talk about how meaningful they are considering the war they are apart of and the continuing civil war in the country next door. Btw, this isn't to say use of gases isn't horrible, it is, but so is the use of WP in urban areas.
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Apr 23, 2014 16:58
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Ardennes posted:That is completely silly, this is a thread about the Middle East and we are talking about the recent uses of unorthodox weapons against a built up urban areas in the Middle East. Actually, we're discussing Assad's use of chemical weapons. Discussion of other entities' uses of white phosphorus are tangential at best, and deflection and Assad apologia at worst.
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Apr 23, 2014 17:06
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