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mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008

John Cena posted:

The big difference between someone like Tony and someone like Russell at the end: tony is likeable. Likability goes a long way and can be what saves your rear end at Final Tribal. His moves aren't done out of malice, he's not pointlessly talking poo poo to his other tribemates, it's all in the name of the game, and his moves broken down on an individual level are completely justifiable when he voted someone out. He's not blindly getting rid of people, he's targeting people he perceives as a direct threat to his game, be it long term or short term. With him, no vote has been one that was of waste. With how he has interacted with people before, and how he'll probably speak to the jury, I think he's nearly a shoo-in if he makes it to final tribal to win. The guy clearly has controlled the pace of this game from the getgo, has avoided alienating people, and the only thing I can see backfiring on him is the clapping after some of the votes, which can probably be spun as him applauding his alliance for successfully making a move.

Russell's moves were all strictly strategic and not personal as well. But moves like him voting out Danielle for no discernible reason other than the weird, twisted paranoid logic in his head really alienated him from the jury. While I see where Tony was coming from by voting out Jefra, I also saw Russell's twisted logic in voting out Danielle; I also think both moves were overly paranoid, unnecessary, and alienating.

I do agree that Tony is ultimately more likeable, and from reading interviews it sounds like Russell lost largely because he was kind of an antisocial loner at camp which Tony is not. But I do think, given what we've seen now, Tony will be struggling to win a majority of jury votes if he's up against anyone except for Kass or maybe Woo.

I also think Tony is not so great at explaining his reasoning for his votes, which could hurt him at the Final Tribal. While the broad move of voting out LJ makes sense (vote out the biggest threat in your alliance and then get back in their good graces), the way he described his logic in confessionals was very confusing ("the minority alliance voted for me so if I can trick LJ into technically saying the words "vote out Woo" then maybe LJ is untrustworthy enough for me to vote against him to save myself").

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Feral
Jun 13, 2003

My god, look at this place. It's like a museum of failure!
I think another big difference is that Tony is likeable - to television audiences. But if you're in his alliance and had no idea he was going to blindside Jefra, that's a completely different thing. I was checking out all the faces on the jury tonight and had a hard time believing most of them would give Tony the million dollars. He's lost Sarah - she's scowling every time he speaks (or at least, that's what the edit would have us believe). He's lost Jefra. It'd be tough to win over Morgan, although I think he has a better shot now that none of the beauties are left. LJ might be bitter. Jeremiah would be more likely to give money to Spencer or Tasha.

And moving forward, I think this might be the kiss of death where Trish is concerned given her expressions at Tribal. Spencer might vote for him. Woo might vote for him. Kass, who knows. Not sure about Tasha either.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

This will cement its place as the best season ever if everyone votes Tony and Tony votes Kass, then uses his Tyler Perry idol.

NieR Occomata
Jan 18, 2009

Glory to Mankind.

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(USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)

Vernacular
Nov 29, 2004
This season just owns so hard. Its stupid how ridiculously powerful Tony is right now, but if it gives him the stones to make moves like these then I guess there's some merit to that dumb idol.

Its hard for me to see Tony getting too many jury votes, as I could definitely see Ponderosa being a giant anti-Tony fest. It seems like one of Spencer or Tasha will most likely win the game the way things are going. Tasha's move of just hanging out with the girls all the time was so subtle and brilliant, and Spencer stoked the fire beneath Tony perfectly. They deserve a lot of credit.

sportsgenius86 posted:

This will cement its place as the best season ever if everyone votes Tony and Tony votes Kass, then uses his Tyler Perry idol.

That would be poetry.

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

Occupation posted:

I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass. I loving hate Kass.

I approve of this post.

NieR Occomata
Jan 18, 2009

Glory to Mankind.

I'm trying to think about the last time I really hated a player as much as I hate Kass

I think Abi-Maria but even then it became kind of comical how ridiculous she was

I don't care what moves you make and who you screw over as long as you leave it on the table. As long as it's all just part of the game but once you're off the field you're professional it's ok

I hate, just absolutely despise players who in their confessionals just venomously attack other players. And not like Tyson or Boston rob when it's clearly a joke, or like Sandra when you're trying to get a one liner out of it but it's still clearly a joke

Kass is just a hateful person who thinks she's the exact opposite player of what she really is, and I don't think she has the defense that j'tia and Abi-Maria had when it's clear that something is off about them- she's just awful and hateful

Like I think that's what made me hate abi-Maria and even j'tia less is I felt sympathy because mentally they're kind of messed up. Kass is just... Kass is every person I don't want to talk to at a party, every hateful friend of a girlfriend who talks massive poo poo about everyone else the instant they leave the room

Also she's terrible at this game

Like truly horrendous

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
Guys, we've got it all wrong. This season isn't proof that all seasons should be all-newbies, it's proof that all seasons should have this exact cast. These 18 people are magical, just sign them on for like 6 seasons and film the insanity.

NieR Occomata
Jan 18, 2009

Glory to Mankind.

An interesting twist realtalk would be if every time an idol is played, an extra one is added to the game

Not like a replacement one, literally an extra idol. So you go from 1 to 2 to 3 etc etc to some hard cap

Or do that but only one of them is real

Also if Jeff wants to change to have a super idol include one that could be played at any part of the game (including the final elimination of the season) and/or one that if given to probst at the final immunity challenge you win

Then that super idol has the same rules as the non Tyler perry idol in every other instance


This introduces a risk/reward payoff for the super idol and actually
encourages intelligent, safe play

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!
HOLY MOTHERFUCKING poo poo YESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS@!!!!!!!!!!!!!JL#@JRWFKNEfWELJFNW

(guess who just watched tonight's tribal)

(and woke up his neighbors)

LostRook
Jun 7, 2013
I guess BGrifter.

Spatula City
Oct 21, 2010

LET ME EXPLAIN TO YOU WHY YOU ARE WRONG ABOUT EVERYTHING
I am relieved Jefra went largely because I was a little scared she'd luck into FTC, and then win on the back of a really bitter jury.
I know, unlikely scenario. BUT HER CONTINUED PRESENCE MADE IT REMOTELY POSSIBLE.
Good job, Tony.
Also, I really hope all five people team up to vote Tony out, and then Tony's single vote decides who goes home. Realistically, I'm willing to bet Tony's SuperIdol doesn't even come into play. Next week will be Spencer because of TASHA CHALLENGE BEAST. :allears:
At this point I'd like to see Tony make at least one more aggressive, jury-alienating play, then win anyway because he's up against Kass.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!
So yeah, um, pretty drat good episode tonight. I was convinced Spencer was done.

Spencer is playing one HELL of a game from behind. Dude has been scrambling to stay alive just about the entire game and keeps managing to pull a rabbit out of a hat. I'm still not convinced he makes the final three, but it has to go down as one of the all time great efforts from someone playing with their back against the wall. For such a young player he's shown a remarkable understanding of how hard to push to stay alive, without going too far and getting himself voted out. Sooooooooo many players would have overplayed in a spot like that.

Tasha continues to challenge beast her way forward and if she makes final three has an extremely good shot at winning. I could see it going either way between her and Spencer, but I think she beats everybody else out there.

Tony continues to entertain, although drat that jury pool has to be getting awfully bitter. Sarah obviously hates his guts and will have plenty of time to poison the jury against him at Pondarosa. I can't imagine LJ is too fond of him, although he didn't sound particularly bitter in his exit interview months later. Jefra isn't going to respond well to that either. I think at this point he still wins if he gets himself into a final three with some combination of Woo/Kass/Trish but he loses to Spencer or Tasha.

Fun season. The dream is Kass goes home next week followed by Trish or Woo.

Edit: Someone with better GIF making skills than I could probably make a pretty epic Four Horseman-style GIF of Kass/Trish's reactions followed by Spencersmugface.

Jack Skeleton
Dec 7, 2006
That's what Jefra gets for not going with the minority the last time around and backing up into Tony's game. She totally deserved that boot and gently caress her.

I hope and pray it's Kass next. gently caress her. Worst player of Survivor ever.

GaussianCopula
Jun 5, 2011
Jews fleeing the Holocaust are not in any way comparable to North Africans, who don't flee genocide but want to enjoy the social welfare systems of Northern Europe.
I dont think you can compare Russel and Tony at all, outside of saying both made big moves. Russel was a master of breaking a bigger alliance down while working with a small core group that he did not betray. Tony on the other hand is keeping his own alliance weak to protect against it breaking apart. If you look at Samoa, which was the only season you saw pure Russel play, he stayed true to his 4person alliance until the end.

The best strategy for the majority alliance would be to vote out either Spencer or even better Tasha at the next tribal followed by the other 2 brains to make it a final3 of Woo, Trish and Tony, who could all make a claim to fame (Challenges, Social, playing the game respectivly) but the way it probably will play out is that Spencer makes it into the f3 and wins. His play at this point is very much like Sandra's proven formula to winning Survivor.

Two Tone Shoes
Jan 2, 2009

All that's missing is the ring.
I feel like I can logically justify every single move Tony has made as a good move post-merge, but I doubt he has the same thought process and rationale moreso than him just eating up all the paranoia.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

GaussianCopula posted:

I dont think you can compare Russel and Tony at all, outside of saying both made big moves.

You're cute.

Tony and Russell both:

-Lucked into way too many hidden idols

-Lucked into alliances full of sheep

-Are volatile

-Are unlikeable

-Have bald heads

-Aren't great at winning challenges

-Mastermind themselves out of the million

-Have stupid accents

-Will never understand why the jury didn't vote for them to win unanimously

-Vote out of paranoia

Mackay
May 28, 2006

Arrr.
I take back the nice things I said about Tony last week - that has to be one of the stupidest plays I have ever seen. It shouldn't hurt him too much given the idols, but simultaneously blowing up your own alliance while breathing life into the only two people in the game who can beat you has to be one of the most idiotic things I've ever seen on the show.

Very impressed with Spencer's play this episode! This is the first time for me that he has actually lived up to all his talk. It's far too late in the season and he has been far too bratty for me to ever support him, but at least I can retroactively justify the support he's been getting from others based on his tremendous play this episode.

I actually yelled at the screen about how stupid Tony is, though. Did he just cost himself the game?

edit: forgot to mention that Tasha is amazing. Her gameplay and her challenge performances. The woman is a genius. :swoon:

Mackay fucked around with this message at 12:32 on May 1, 2014

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Propaganda Machine posted:

You're cute.

Tony and Russell both:

-Are easily manipulated by women into voting out members of their core alliance

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

Pinterest Mom posted:

-Are easily manipulated by women into voting out members of their core alliance

Are you calling Spencer a woman?

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Pinterest Mom posted:

-Are easily manipulated by women into voting out members of their core alliance

Um. No?

Russell's core alliances were:

-Natalie, Mick (F3), Jaison, and Shambo
-Parvati (F3), Jerri, Danielle (Parv was pissed when she left)

Tony has:

-Woo, Trish
- Kass (flipper)

What's your point?

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=

GaussianCopula posted:

I dont think you can compare Russel and Tony at all, outside of saying both made big moves. Russel was a master of breaking a bigger alliance down while working with a small core group that he did not betray. Tony on the other hand is keeping his own alliance weak to protect against it breaking apart. If you look at Samoa, which was the only season you saw pure Russel play, he stayed true to his 4person alliance until the end.

I think there are definite differences between Russell and Tony, but I don't really think you can use Samoa to try to show those differences - their situations were entirely different. Russell had no choice but to stay true to his core four because they were so severely outnumbered when they hit the merge. Once Tony got the numbers, he's voted off allies once he had the room to do so (LJ and Jefra once he had room to spare.

HvV is where the comparison comes into play. Tony cut Jefra because he was afraid she was going to flip to an all-girls alliance. Russell cut Danielle because he was afraid she was more loyal to Parvati than himself - very similar. The main difference is that Russell didn't cut anybody else before getting rid of Rupert/Colby, understanding their status as a jury threat, while Tony keeps ignoring Spencer and Tasha because of ????

Pinterest Mom
Jun 9, 2009

Poque posted:

The main difference is that Russell didn't cut anybody else before getting rid of Rupert/Colby, understanding their status as a jury threat, while Tony keeps ignoring Spencer and Tasha because of ????
He cut Coach (in his alliance) over Sandra and Courtney (not in his alliance) because Sandra gently suggested that she may have heard Coach say he wanted to vote Russell out.

Then he said "You don't vote me out. I vote you out. I'm Russell Hantz!"*


*Maybe he didn't actually say this, but probably he did.

Propaganda Machine
Jan 2, 2005

Truthiness!

Pinterest Mom posted:

He cut Coach (in his alliance) over Sandra and Courtney (not in his alliance) because Sandra gently suggested that she may have heard Coach say he wanted to vote Russell out.

Then he said "You don't vote me out. I vote you out. I'm Russell Hantz!"*


*Maybe he didn't actually say this, but probably he did.

This is like laying it into Tony for voting out Sarah because Kass told him to.

tl;dr: please stop.

Poque
Sep 11, 2003

=^-^=
I totally forgot that he was aligned with Coach, good call. That's basically the exact same thing, heh.

Propaganda Machine posted:

This is like laying it into Tony for voting out Sarah because Kass told him to.

tl;dr: please stop.

It's nothing like that and nobody is arguing that. Sandra told Russell that Coach wanted to vote him out. Russell voted out Coach. Spencer told Tony that Jefra wanted to vote him out. Tony voted out Jefra.

Wren610
Oct 25, 2010
This whole things gotten sureal Tony flips whenever he wants and even if the sheeple wake up its likely too late cause of his bag of tricks. He's overplayed everyone by such a margin I'm not sure a bitter jury will do him in final four on the other hand is a huge problem for him. Good work by both Spencer and Tasha their both building their case as to why they should win. The upcoming mutiny that Tony will beat off by throwing a handfull of idols at will be good humour, bonus points if Kass is a casuality.

Lone Goat
Apr 16, 2003

When life gives you lemons, suplex those lemons.




Lone Goat posted:

Man I have this feeling this is going to be a dud episode

What a fool I was.

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.
I really like Kass this season, just like I really liked Ciera last season. I feel like I don't fit into the goon hivemind well :(

Juanito
Jan 20, 2004

I wasn't paying attention
to what you just said.

Can you repeat yourself
in a more interesting way?
Hell Gem

Murmur Twin posted:

I really like Kass this season, just like I really liked Ciera last season. I feel like I don't fit into the goon hivemind well :(
Kass is way more petty than Ciera ever was.

Why do you really like Kass?

Toaster Ding
Apr 30, 2006

As much as I hate Kass, I kind of feel bad for her.

I feel like she's obviously acting out some trauma from her formative years. I've never seen someone so pettily starved for attention and unnecessarily vitriolic towards youth or charisma. Her attitude when she briefly had some power, Queen Kass finally getting some shine after all these years, was just sad.

We get it Kass - you didn't get to date the popular kids in high school and you probably got made fun of for being a nerd. But that's been over for a long time now and by all rights you're a highly successful adult who should have gotten over that poo poo a long long time ago.

But hey, people are paying attention to Sara and Morgan has boobs and Spencer is a slightly alpha college male :supaburn:

Toaster Ding fucked around with this message at 16:27 on May 1, 2014

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.
If it wasn't for the Stupid Idol this would be just about a perfect season, but... the Stupid Idol.

Did Tony overreach? Will he get blindsided next week? No, because the Stupid Idol.
Can Tony make it to the final three? Yes, because the Stupid Idol.
Is there any way Tony's dominance can even be challenged? No, because the Stupid Idol.


gently caress that stupid thing so much, even if it never comes up it's killing tension just by existing.

CapnAndy fucked around with this message at 16:45 on May 1, 2014

Murmur Twin
Feb 11, 2003

An ever-honest pacifist with no mind for tricks.

Juanito posted:

Kass is way more petty than Ciera ever was.

Why do you really like Kass?

I feel like she's shown a decent awareness of the game?

When she flipped on Sarah, Sarah had spent the whole time advertising that she wasn't sure which side she was on, so the move was made from a self-preservation angle. Yes, it's bad if she puts herself on the bottom of an alliance that sticks together, but (a) it means that Team Tony trusts her, and (b) Team Spencer needs her. Sure, a lot of it is hoping that other people overplay too much and make mistakes, and a lot of it is trusting in one's ability to speak well in FTC - but that is a kind of strategy I appreciate ;)

In the early game, voting out Garrett more or less ensured that she would live two more votes (as J'Tia and Spencer are on the block) to live until a swap or merge. That was good play. Denise from Phillipines showed that having your original tribe decimated in a 3-tribe season isn't bad as long as you survive.

She knew that even though Spencer would be mad after the Sarah vote, that he would get over it once he realized he needs her vote. That's good play.

Tony said in last night's episode that the reason they targetted Jeremiah is that Kass read Spencer for having an idol. That's good play.

I dunno, it's all just my opinion. I honestly like Spencer and Tony a lot too. I just feel like the hate for Kass goes too far.

mancalamania
Oct 23, 2008
I personally love Kass as a character on the show, and somewhat like her as a person. On the show she's been instrumental in two huge moves, and her smug snarky confessionals are pretty amusing. Players that keep getting thrown around in the game and hated by the other players but can still keep their composure and a sense of humor are pretty likeable. Sorry she insulted goon-favorite Spencer, but a confessional poking fun of the immature selfish guy for being an immature selfish guy, especially given that he humiliated her in front of the entire tribe a few weeks ago, doesn't strike me as petty or malicious. Her snark was mostly accurate in this case, and even if it was unnecessarily smug it was amusing to see her take such a satisfaction in taking Spencer down a peg. Don't worry goons, I think Spencer will be just fine from mean old Kass's comments and from STAC Goat's "lame-o" insults.

I also think her two biggest moves (voting out Garrett and flipping to Tony's alliance) are not nearly as bad as people in this thread thing; in fact, I think voting out Garrett was a decidedly good move. She's not the best player this season, but she's far from the worst and if nothing else she's an entertaining character who's making bold moves and I happily anticipate her return in some future season.

Adjunct Cheesecake
Mar 19, 2009

mmmmmm

Murmur Twin posted:

I feel like she's shown a decent awareness of the game?

You're going to say that about the person who said it was too early to make a big move two weeks after she flipped?

quote:

When she flipped on Sarah, Sarah had spent the whole time advertising that she wasn't sure which side she was on, so the move was made from a self-preservation angle. Yes, it's bad if she puts herself on the bottom of an alliance that sticks together, but (a) it means that Team Tony trusts her, and (b) Team Spencer needs her. Sure, a lot of it is hoping that other people overplay too much and make mistakes, and a lot of it is trusting in one's ability to speak well in FTC - but that is a kind of strategy I appreciate ;)

She also could have very easily told Sarah what Sarah wanted to hear (Sarah made it quite obvious what she wanted from the competing alliances) and still been in an alliance where she wasn't at the bottom and been in a much better situation than she is currently, where the person in charge of the alliance didn't let her in on what was going on for two separate TCs.

quote:

In the early game, voting out Garrett more or less ensured that she would live two more votes (as J'Tia and Spencer are on the block) to live until a swap or merge. That was good play. Denise from Phillipines showed that having your original tribe decimated in a 3-tribe season isn't bad as long as you survive.

I'm not giving her credit on this one. Garrett dug his own grave and Kass just helped throw the dirt on top.

quote:

She knew that even though Spencer would be mad after the Sarah vote, that he would get over it once he realized he needs her vote. That's good play.

Except it's rather obvious that Spencer is still angry at Kass, and somehow Kass has gotten even more angry at Spencer because ?

quote:

Tony said in last night's episode that the reason they targetted Jeremiah is that Kass read Spencer for having an idol. That's good play.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day.

Teek
Aug 7, 2006

I can't wait to entertain you.
I'm not sure on what basis everyone believes Tony gets to Final 3 on the strength of his super idol alone. Isn't the last time the idols can be played the vote before final 4? He's done okay but not great in the individual immunities. To get Final 3 means he either has to win the final four comp, or he's taken as a goat to final 3. With how much he's pissing off his alliance, seems like he might get the goat benefit.

CapnAndy
Feb 27, 2004

Some teeth long for ripping, gleaming wet from black dog gums. So you keep your eyes closed at the end. You don't want to see such a mouth up close. before the bite, before its oblivion in the goring of your soft parts, the speckled lips will curl back in a whinny of excitement. You just know it.

Teek posted:

I'm not sure on what basis everyone believes Tony gets to Final 3 on the strength of his super idol alone. Isn't the last time the idols can be played the vote before final 4? He's done okay but not great in the individual immunities. To get Final 3 means he either has to win the final four comp, or he's taken as a goat to final 3. With how much he's pissing off his alliance, seems like he might get the goat benefit.
The ~*~*~*~*~special rules~*~*~*~*~ made no mention of any time limit on being played.

Truther Vandross
Jun 17, 2008

I'm hesitant to give someone too much credit for predicting that a person who had an idol clue and a long head start looking for that idol might have the idol.

Last night was a perfect example of why Kass is a loving idiot. Her "chaos" strategy has really just painted her as wholly unreliable and was the crack that Spencer could exploit to keep himself around when he really should have been the one to go. As it was, this constant fickle vibe she gives off made Tony think the ability for an all-female alliance was more realistic than it probably is and put a bit of fear in him.

Kass seems completely unable to think beyond whatever situation she's presently in.

She's really entertaining to watch but if we're judging a player on their ability to set themselves up to win a million dollars she's hilariously loving terrible.


Also, the Garrett move is incredibly overrated because you were basically digging your own grave in team challenges and hedging your bets that something happens outside of your control to prevent an inevitable pagonging.

Truther Vandross fucked around with this message at 17:03 on May 1, 2014

The Lord Bude
May 23, 2007

ASK ME ABOUT MY SHITTY, BOUGIE INTERIOR DECORATING ADVICE

CapnAndy posted:

If it wasn't for the Stupid Idol this would be just about a perfect season, but... the Stupid Idol.

Did Tony overreach? Will he get blindsided next week? No, because the Stupid Idol.
Can Tony make it to the final three? Yes, because the Stupid Idol.
Is there any way Tony's dominance can even be challenged? No, because the Stupid Idol.


gently caress that stupid thing so much, even if it never comes up it's killing tension just by existing.

The idols don't work past final 5, so they can still vote Tony out in the final 4 if he doesn't win immunity. If both Spencer and Tash are still there by final 4 I see this as guaranteed; even with one of Spencer or Tash, I still see a pretty good shot.

That being said I'm not convinced that Tony isn't a giant Hantzian goat - Keeping him might be a good idea. After this last vote, His alliance is bound to fall apart; the only question is whether Spencer and Tash try and team up with one or more of Woo/Kass/Trish to target Tony; in which case they're screwed because of Tyler Perry; or, knowing he has a regular idol at least (I forget, who knows this? Just Woo?) Spencer and Tash choose the safer route of Siding with Tony and taking out Trish and Kass.

If they can read things correctly and do the later, I think we'll see a final 4 of Tony/Woo/Spencer/Tash; in which Tony is arguably the least likely to win immunity.

BGrifter
Mar 16, 2007

Winner of Something Awful PS5 thread's Posting Excellence Award June 2022

Congratulations!

Teek posted:

I'm not sure on what basis everyone believes Tony gets to Final 3 on the strength of his super idol alone.

The way it's playing out is actually doing a pretty good job of neutralizing the super idol. The regular idol he found tonight would most often be enough to get him into the final four, it seems unlikely we'll see the super idol played or even threatened. Tony is doing one hell of a job getting maximum value for regular idols.

The problem for Tony is he's running out of time to get Spencer and Tasha out. He pretty much needs a Kass/Woo/Tony final three to win and even that comes with a slight outside shot at Woo Fabio-ing the FTC.

It's still a godawful twist, but I'm guessing it won't swing this game.

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Super Aggro Crag
Apr 23, 2008




And, of course as always, kill Hitler.


I actually like the Special Idol. Maybe I just like it because Tony has it and he can ball out like Michael Jordan on the court. Very entertaining season.

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