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De Nomolos posted:So who's the real anti-Hillary? A serious medical issue forcing her to withdraw from the race.
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May 5, 2014 19:51
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De Nomolos posted:So who's the real anti-Hillary? Democrats not becoming enraptured by a cult of personality again. AKA no one.
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May 5, 2014 20:08
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De Nomolos posted:Um...so are people in Baltimore under the impression that they're the only city that Comcast has a monopoly on? Because I'm pretty sure every city I've lived in has been the same, be it Comcast or TWC. If that's the big ice burn on him, it's pretty dumb. Useful for some people: 
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May 5, 2014 20:25
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Skwirl posted:Wow, that's amazing. Reddit got mad at O'Malley and downvoted ALL of his answers into the negative for the following reasons: 1) Answering "What is your record for number of crabcakes managed to eat in one sitting?" with "I don't eat competitively." 2) Giving statistics and talking points-sounding answers to questions about gun control. 3) Passing gun control. 4) Redditors thinking that Baltimore is the only city where Comcast has an effective monopoly on broadband. Most of his answers were pretty generic and political, but I don't really understand why it was such a heinous crime. Leon Trotsky 2012 fucked around with this message at 20:31 on May 5, 2014 |
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May 5, 2014 20:29
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De Nomolos posted:So who's the real anti-Hillary? The sitting President of the United States.
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May 5, 2014 20:31
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The Reddit community is not rational. And, being the Internet, it's very vulnerable to motivated groups barging in and overwhelming the disorganized agenda-lacking masses.
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May 5, 2014 20:33
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Jeb v. Hilary, Jeb wins. Calling it.
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May 5, 2014 20:58
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Anyone not named Obama doing AMAs either has to appear authentic or have their own Internet brigade already, so nobody not named Paul, Biden or Sanders has a shot at +rep. Biden is the anti-Hillary btw but we've had this discussion already.
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May 5, 2014 21:02
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Jeb v. Hilary, Jeb wins. Calling it. I won't believe that the worst president in 150 years' brother could get elected 8 years later. Even for as stupid a people as we are.
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May 5, 2014 21:04
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mcmagic posted:I won't believe that the worst president in 150 years' brother could get elected 8 years later. Even for as stupid a people as we are. I dont know, I think people underestimate Jeb as a candidate and Hilary has been overestimated already. But I am not certain Bush has been rehabilitated enough image wise for his brother to win yet. If the economy us doing "better" by 2016 its still Hillarys race to lose.
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May 5, 2014 21:15
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De Nomolos posted:So who's the real anti-Hillary? Obama's illegal third term election campaign.
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May 5, 2014 21:17
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Adar posted:Biden is the anti-Hillary btw but we've had this discussion already.
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May 5, 2014 21:18
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DynamicSloth posted:I'm finding it hard and harder to believe that Biden is planning on running, last summer he had advisers talking about setting up his own PAC to help Democrats in the midterms but it has yet to materialize. Biden probably won't run, but the way he's being treated in the party is pretty unprecedented. A sitting VP for a successful president (at least he's viewed that way within the party) should be the front runner. I'll never understand why Hillary is loved so much.
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May 5, 2014 21:21
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Bush wasn't any great shakes as Governor of Florida (he was in charge when the whole Terri Schiavo circus went down) and he hasn't run for anything since 2002. Plus, he's spent the seven years since leaving office cahsing in, sitting on boards and stacking paper and peddling influence. He's also all over the place on one of his (and his party's) signature issues (immigration). I've never seen anything from him that indicates much political grace or savvy. He's a weak candidate who only looks good in comparison to the rest of the field. And that's without going into the baggage he's carrying with his last name and brother's administration.
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May 5, 2014 21:21
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Berke Negri posted:I dont know, I think people underestimate Jeb as a candidate and Hilary has been overestimated already. But I am not certain Bush has been rehabilitated enough image wise for his brother to win yet. If the economy us doing "better" by 2016 its still Hillarys race to lose. Eh, there's a long way to go from "Name that makes people spit when they hear it" to "Bringing together all Conservatives and getting them to vote." Oh and keep in mind this is while avoiding "Name that motivates Liberals to turn out in droves."
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May 5, 2014 21:27
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mcmagic posted:Biden probably won't run, but the way he's being treated in the party is pretty unprecedented.
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May 5, 2014 21:31
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He gives a poo poo about immigration policy ergo JEB(!) is DOA.
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May 5, 2014 21:32
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DynamicSloth posted:Not really VP's are usually unloved and treated like poo poo from George Washington's first cabinet meeting to Cheney's speech to the RNC being cancelled, Biden is relatively well treated as these things go but no incumbent VP has won his party's nomination uncontested. There is a difference between being uncontested and being 60 points down in the polls. I'm just not sure what warrants that.
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May 5, 2014 21:32
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The best chance to unite the republican base right now is anyone with the last name bush. Among the republican base there's a lot of nostalgia for the bush era. See: Those billboards on the highways with bush's learning face and the text 'miss me yet?'. I believe that by 2016 we will indeed be far enough removed from the bush administration for the narrative to be nostalgia for the bush administration. The instant Jeb declares his candidacy the entire Murdoch machine is going to spin up in his favor. Hillary has the charisma of an iguana sunning itself and the media will play it as a nail biter but she will probably lose. BUT That's half the fun about speculating about presidential races! Last cycle was a train wreck for the republicans, a sad freakshow that basically took all of the elements that got the republicans into office in the reagan and bush years, but gave each candidate one element, like some kind of reverse republican Captain Planet. Mitt Romney was the monied interests, but his weakness was that he was a robot who couldn't convince people he wasn't a robot. Newt Gingrich was the statesman, but his weakness is that he's an utterly awful human being. Ron Paul represented the libertarian streak that has become more and more prominent in republican politics, but his weakness is that at least 50% of his ideas are completely insane. Although, as Stephen Colbert pointed out, he is usually consistent on his positions, which is more than you can say for most politicians. And then Herman Cain represented ...Heart? I guess? His weakness was that 100% of his ideas were insane. Oh, and Rick Santorum, with the power of republican jesus. He also share's Herman Cain's weakness. But if there was one candidate that could manage to combine several of these elements without the negative traits that go with them (a la Ronald Reagan) a republican can still win in 2016. A republican who can truly and meaningfully reach out to hispanic voters could win. Jeb Bush could win.
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May 5, 2014 21:38
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Full Battle Rattle posted:The best chance to unite the republican base right now is anyone with the last name bush. Among the republican base there's a lot of nostalgia for the bush era. See: Those billboards on the highways with bush's learning face and the text 'miss me yet?'. Those aren't pro-Bush, they're anti-Obama.
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May 5, 2014 21:41
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I think that unforced errors downballot may negate any outreach from the presidential campaign, especially if the errors are Akin-esque in their offensiveness. Jeb can reach out to the Hispanic community all he wants, but if he has to throw the other arm around some whackadoodle spouting off about "wetbacks," that outreach won't go very far.
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May 5, 2014 21:43
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FAUXTON posted:He gives a poo poo about immigration policy ergo JEB(!) is DOA. And his wife is an honest to goodness Mexican, from Mexico. By itself it wouldn't be anything but combined with his not actually despising Mexicans it's a killer.
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May 5, 2014 21:46
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Hm. Nobody's mentioned Perry, and he's sure as heck running.
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May 5, 2014 23:19
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Warcabbit posted:Hm. Nobody's mentioned Perry, and he's sure as heck running. Oops.
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May 5, 2014 23:19
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Warcabbit posted:Hm. Nobody's mentioned Perry, and he's sure as heck running. No, we mentioned the 3 big candidates - Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and, uh... what's the third one, there?
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May 6, 2014 00:01
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Screen Door Slams posted:No, we mentioned the 3 big candidates - Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and, uh... what's the third one, there?  ???
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May 6, 2014 00:08
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mcmagic posted:There is a difference between being uncontested and being 60 points down in the polls. I'm just not sure what warrants that. A contested election means Biden will be expected to compete, through fundraising, organizing and campaigning. It's too early for the last of those but Hillary already has a huge head start on the other two fronts.
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May 6, 2014 00:08
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mcmagic posted:I won't believe that the worst president in 150 years' brother could get elected 8 years later. Even for as stupid a people as we are. Plus, his election would be proof positive that democracy in America is dead and buried and that the American Oligarchy, or maybe American Plutocracy, will exist into the foreseeable future. We would have one family being the official power behind one political party for the span of 36 years and the only family able to win the presidency for 28 years. I can't imagine how destabilizing that might be.
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May 6, 2014 00:46
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Berke Negri posted:I dont know, I think people underestimate Jeb as a candidate and Hilary has been overestimated already. But I am not certain Bush has been rehabilitated enough image wise for his brother to win yet. If the economy us doing "better" by 2016 its still Hillarys race to lose. I agree. Hillary hasn't proven she can run anything with effectiveness. Her previous campaign was a disaster if you consider their mistakes. It wouldn't surprise me if she brought back on a lot of those same idiots to her 2016 campaign too. Clinton just got done in Jan 2013 paying off her campaign debt to Mark Penn. Their 2008 campaign didn't even realize that delegates were allocated proportionally at some points. Obama's campaign effectiveness was probably one of the better or the best we will see in our lifetimes. A Hillary Clinton campaign will not even be close in terms of effectiveness and you'll have an even higher percentage of overall money coming from outside GOP sources in 2016. I'm hoping for a different candidate because I don't think Clinton is a very good bet, especially since the consequence of losing is the chance of having all 3 branches being GOP.
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May 6, 2014 01:10
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A major difference is that Obama will be campaigning *for* Hillary this time (assuming she wins the nomination).
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May 6, 2014 01:11
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radical meme posted:Plus, his election would be proof positive that democracy in America is dead and buried and that the American Oligarchy, or maybe American Plutocracy, will exist into the foreseeable future. Good, because I just checked my files and it turns out I haven't amassed enough proof of this yet.
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May 6, 2014 01:16
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My biggest fear is basically Clinton's campaign being a repeat of 2008 and she just alienates a lot of people Obama has gathered into a national voting coalition.
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May 6, 2014 01:18
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Berke Negri posted:My biggest fear is basically Clinton's campaign being a repeat of 2008 and she just alienates a lot of people Obama has gathered into a national voting coalition. The chances that Hillary will be competing against Obama for the nomination in 2016 are very low.
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May 6, 2014 01:30
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Some minor big news out of the DNC's RBC: 1. They are not changing the penalty rules for states holding early contests, so we're back in the 2008 realm of penalizing states 50% of their delegates for early contests, until everyone except the frontrunner concedes, meaning they're back to 100% of their delegates or some compromise. If Hillary is running, this won't matter this time anyway, which is probably why the rule was left unchanged. 2. Iowa may hold its contest 29 days before the first Tuesday in March. New Hampshire may hold their contest 21 days before the first Tuesday in March. Nevada may hold its contest 10 days before the first Tuesday in March. South Carolina may hold its contest 3 days before the first Tuesday in March. The latter will most likely conflict with Arizona and Michigan jumping into February again. Florida is looking a bit more sane this cycle (!!) and will probably hold its contest in March. If other states push into early February, as they did in 2012, expect Bill Gardner to freak the gently caress out.
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May 6, 2014 01:32
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DynamicSloth posted:The chances that Hillary will be competing against Obama for the nomination in 2016 are very low. This. A large part of why Hillary 2008 came off as so floundering is that regardless of what you think of his presidency, Obama's candidacy was one for the record books for good reason. Not that the Mark Penn bullshit was eyeroll-worthy, but the main reason that even came into play was she wasn't expecting a real primary fight at all, and got blitzed.
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May 6, 2014 01:34
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NH State Constitution requires the primary be held at least 1 week before any similar nominating contest so regardless of what the plan is NH's primary date isn't set until everyone else's is.
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May 6, 2014 01:35
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Pook Good Mook posted:NH State Constitution requires the primary be held at least 1 week before any similar nominating contest so regardless of what the plan is NH's primary date isn't set until everyone else's is. Yup! Hence Bill Gardner freaking the gently caress out. He threatened (and very nearly had to make good on it before Nevada caved) to go into December during the 2012 cycle. He'll definitely take the DNC's penalty (thought I'm not sure that applies to the carve-out states) if it means pushing the NH primary date back to accommodate the state constitution.
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May 6, 2014 01:42
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FMguru posted:He's a weak candidate who only looks good in comparison to the rest of the field. And that's without going into the baggage he's carrying with his last name and brother's administration. Don't kid yourself. He's a Bush, and he's more H.W. than W. He's a top tier candidate. And Perry will be DOA in 2016. He's just too dumb.
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May 6, 2014 02:52
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Cigar Aficionado posted:And Perry will be DOA in 2016. He's just too dumb. Uhh, he's got glasses now.
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May 6, 2014 02:55
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Cigar Aficionado posted:Don't kid yourself. He's a Bush, and he's more H.W. than W. He's a top tier candidate. Yeah, if he can somehow elide the whole "brother to GWB" thing I bet, if the GOP got their heads out of their asses, would be a very competitive candidate. Not that I think he'd necessarily be a good president, but I'd worry more about him in the general than Rand "I hate Civil Rights" Paul. edit: Unlike their father, Bush's sons aren't terrible campaigners so I definitely wouldn't be "he's terrible".
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May 6, 2014 03:01
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