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Kin posted:Is there a simple to understand counter argument to anyone that's denying the impending crash due to living in a specific area? What impending crash? Real prices are currently well below the multi-decade trendline and we can confidently expect sustained price growth over the next 5-10 years.  
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Jun 7, 2014 22:56
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Crane Fist posted:So, have they started selling 'Team Michael' and 'Team Theresa' shirts yet? Cause this poo poo is getting funnier and funnier Also bear in mind these two are both frontrunners in a future Tory leadership battle, and the fact they (or their people) are getting the elbows out a whole year before the election is pretty loving big. I'll give you a few seconds to process the fact that there is a better than zero chance that Michael loving Gove could be given the nuclear launch codes, but he is an absolute darling of the Tory right and I'm certain he saw this as an opportunity to bolster his reputation with them by being tough on Them Muslims, and handily getting some snipes in on one of his biggest rivals at the same time. The really telling thing will be that neither of them seem likely to attract any kind of sanction for this very public row - other ministers in less-fraught parties would have found themselves spending more time with their families pretty drat quick in this situation, but with UKIP appearing like a black hole on their right the Tory senior leadership are loving terrified of pissing off the swivel-eyed wing of the party and having them fall into Big Nige's gravitational vortex. In particular they're terrified of the doomsday scenario of one or more back-benchers defecting to UKIP, giving them a seat or two without a shot being fired and massively boosting their perceived electability. It might be wishful thinking but I can't help but think that the Tories are already convinced that they won't win a majority at the next election and both Gove and May see an opportunity to grab the controls in that event.
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Jun 7, 2014 22:57
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Radio Prune posted:Is this what it looks like? What the gently caress. Yep, a portion of rainforest. Seems legit too: https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/475373421459959809 https://twitter.com/paddypower/status/475372461077565440
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Jun 7, 2014 22:59
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goddamnedtwisto posted:It might be wishful thinking but I can't help but think that the Tories are already convinced that they won't win a majority at the next election and both Gove and May see an opportunity to grab the controls in that event. Yeah, this seems like the biggest part of the deal- they're acting like Cameron can blow his party discipline out of his arse because the upcoming leadership contest is a sure thing. Have UKIP really rattled them that bad?
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Jun 7, 2014 23:00
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tentish klown posted:Does this mother not know anyone better suited to looking after her child other than her other child (thus compromising his education at the same time and ensuring a cycle of dependence)? No; she doesn't. quote:You used to bunk off school to get a part time job - did it pay more than the £20/week that child benefit gives you? In which case, what's the problem? quote:As for the case of bullying, that's obviously an instance where the school failed and is very sad. However, it shouldn't be a valid reason to not attend school. Yes, it is.
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Jun 7, 2014 23:02
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LemonDrizzle posted:What impending crash? Real prices are currently well below the multi-decade trendline and we can confidently expect sustained price growth over the next 5-10 years. Or is it calculated from mortgage repayments? Those will rise when interest rates go up. Which I guess may never happen, despite what Mark Carney says.
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Jun 7, 2014 23:12
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Paddy Power is the Katie Holmes of bookmakers.
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Jun 7, 2014 23:13
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tentish klown posted:
What exactly do you see as the 'typical' case that this rule would meet? Presumably there's a body of people who would be justly punished whose numbers greatly exceed the anecdotes featured there.
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Jun 7, 2014 23:17
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Zephro posted:What's their definition of 'real'? Inflation-adjusted, using inflation figs that ignore house-price inflation or something equally meta? Inflation-adjusted, against RPI afaik. The prices are based on mortgage approvals, excluding remortgages.
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Jun 7, 2014 23:43
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Also bear in mind these two are both frontrunners in a future Tory leadership battle, and the fact they (or their people) are getting the elbows out a whole year before the election is pretty loving big. You're almost certainly right, I imagine the Tories are seeing some atrocious numbers and everyone's getting the knives out to try and secure their position for their return to the opposition. With that said this is Michael Gove we're talking about. Theresa May, vicious and evil though she is, has at least had the very faintest exposure to competence. Gove is the thickest man in the Houses of Parliament and might be the thickest person we've ever had in the Commons. I mean there are some stupid people there right now and there are plenty of people who mix incompetence and mendacity, but Gove's gormlessness is unparalleled in its stunning, shattering, clattering extent. For all we know he thinks the Tories are going to win 650 seats next year and he's a mastermind who is going to oust Cameron, overcome May, and establish himself as Prime Minister For Life. If I was his colleague I'd have snapped and retaliated in a lot less than four years.
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Jun 7, 2014 23:59
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Mister Adequate posted:You're almost certainly right, I imagine the Tories are seeing some atrocious numbers and everyone's getting the knives out to try and secure their position for their return to the opposition. I think it's always a mistake to call any politician, especially one as close to power as Gove, stupid. Gormless, yes. Incompetent and mendacious, definitely. But at the very least getting that high up the greasy pole requires intelligence, or at least the combination of people skills, political nous and low-grade animal cunning that can pass for intelligence looked at the right way. Assuming they're stupid and will end up run out of Westminster with pitchforks and torches because they wiped their arse with the Queen's gown during the speech is dangerous, because it means you're never looking out for what they're actually doing. In fact, quite a few politicians have managed to make entire careers out of their opponents underestimating them right up to the point where they (or their people) stick the knife in. Some of them made it into the cabinet, one made it to the most powerful directly-elected position in the UK, and one of them managed to be the most powerful man in the world for eight loving years.
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Jun 8, 2014 00:19
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Mister Adequate posted:You're almost certainly right, I imagine the Tories are seeing some atrocious numbers and everyone's getting the knives out to try and secure their position for their return to the opposition. Labour's conference might be entertaining if their position doesn't improve, it's their last chance to decapitate the Millibot and somebody is bound to leak a backroom attempt to the press. Although who they replace Milliband with when they lose the election is even more interesting. twoot fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Jun 8, 2014 |
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Jun 8, 2014 00:38
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Oh I never intended to give the impression that stupidity leads to political doom. No matter someone's intelligence they must have at least some skills to reach positions such as those you outline, just as you say. Just because I regard Gove as a monumental idiot doesn't mean I think he couldn't win an election. I don't have nearly that much faith.
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Jun 8, 2014 00:39
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twoot posted:Labour's conference might be entertaining if their position doesn't improve, it's their last chance to decapitate the Millibot and somebody is bound to leak a backroom attempt to the press. No, it isn't even a guessing game right now. It will be Chuka.
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Jun 8, 2014 00:47
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twoot posted:Labour's conference might be entertaining if their position doesn't improve, it's their last chance to decapitate the Millibot and somebody is bound to leak a backroom attempt to the press. I have to admit I'm really struggling to even name a potential challenger - not because they're all 100% behind Comrade Milliband, but because I couldn't actually name a Labour front-bencher apart from Ed Balls, who is electable as a pig's bladder on a stick. Mister Adequate posted:Oh I never intended to give the impression that stupidity leads to political doom. No matter someone's intelligence they must have at least some skills to reach positions such as those you outline, just as you say. Just because I regard Gove as a monumental idiot doesn't mean I think he couldn't win an election. I don't have nearly that much faith. It's the wonder of modern democracy, a system designed to give executive power to people with the exact opposite of the personality traits and skills that you want in someone wielding executive power.
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Jun 8, 2014 00:50
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Trickjaw posted:No, it isn't even a guessing game right now. It will be Chuka. Silly me, for a second I thought that after Millibot they might choose someone who Labour voters will actually want to turn out for. Chuka is obvious 
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Jun 8, 2014 02:40
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The problem for Labour is that the 2 MPs I can think of who've gained the most positive press in the last few years, one is John Bercow - Speaker of the House and ex-Tory  - and the other is Margaret Hodge, who gives the impression that she'd rather be shot dead than take a Leadership role.Certainly a shame in the latter case, if you've read some of the  she's laid down as part of her PAC duties.
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Jun 8, 2014 03:54
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goddamnedtwisto posted:[citation needed] because by my very unscientific sampling most of the London green belt seems to be agricultural (dairy in Essex and Herts, arable in Kent and Surrey - the area between the M25 and the Medway is still some of the most productive agricultural land in Europe). It also tends to have lovely transport links so absent massive infrastructure works all you're going to do is send even more traffic into central London. citation that green belt doesn't mean agricultural? that's just from the definition in the act. forestry and other other outdoor spaces with a lack of buildings can count if you like. waste land i meant locations like dale "farm" the site of a former scrapyard & waste tarmac dump that Basildon council still classify as green belt.
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Jun 8, 2014 08:49
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Trickjaw posted:No, it isn't even a guessing game right now. It will be Chuka. I'm glad Chuka exists, he's a living reminder that Labour are still neoliberal as gently caress and that I should never vote for them. His growing prominence in the party tells you everything you need to know about them. Hopefully, at least if he gets elected he'll be the straw that breaks the camel's back for all the socialists who cling on to Labour for some deluded reason. Answers Me fucked around with this message at 09:39 on Jun 8, 2014 |
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Jun 8, 2014 09:34
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John Bercow is still a Tory, Chuka Umunna is a Tory in all meaningful ways, and Ed Milliband, for better or worse, will be the next PM
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Jun 8, 2014 10:09
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Answers Me posted:I'm glad Chuka exists, he's a living reminder that Labour are still neoliberal as gently caress and that I should never vote for them. His growing prominence in the party tells you everything you need to know about them. Having sat through many, many hours of disassociation debate at Unison conferences, the capacity for deluded socialists to cling to the Labour party should never be underestimated.
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Jun 8, 2014 10:13
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how many times can one refight the Clause IV war anyway
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Jun 8, 2014 10:34
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Well when you've got unions which are pretty small compared to recent history and full of people who'd rather not smash capitalism and just want better pay and conditions and a political party to help them get it/give it to them and weak revolutionary movements who have continued to exist for the last 30 years or so by getting up the management chain and appearing to affect national politics because of that link then there's always a fight to reclaim the Labour party. Since Labour has been noticibly useless for a long time now and is publically saying that it doesn't want union influence (potentially with Left Unity prepared to fill that gap in the coming years) you'd think something might be coming to a head but I dunno.
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Jun 8, 2014 10:59
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I'm late to the party, but hurray!quote:Nigeria - Green Wing If I win it'll be the Terrance Higgins Trust. So do we think that the incredibly unpopular Gove might get ousted before the election? Or is that just wishful thinking?
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Jun 8, 2014 11:06
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Mister Adequate posted:You're almost certainly right, I imagine the Tories are seeing some atrocious numbers and everyone's getting the knives out to try and secure their position for their return to the opposition. Why do you think he's so stupid? Is it just because you dislike his policy positions? My impression is that Gove is a fairly canny political operator. There's absolutely no way he's the stupidest person in the Government, let alone the Commons (I mean, IDS is right there). I actually think Michael Gove is one of the more interesting members of the Government, and I do think he has substance. Which is not to say that I share any of his ideology.
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Jun 8, 2014 11:10
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Filboid Studge posted:and Ed Milliband, for better or worse, will be the next PM I wouldn't be so sure. Labour's lead in the polls is mediocre at best and the opposition party always experiences a drop in polling in the runup to the election which will probably wipe out their lead by default. Then the next year is going to be full of the media cheerleading our "recovery 
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Jun 8, 2014 11:27
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twoot posted:I wouldn't be so sure. Labour's lead in the polls is mediocre at best and the opposition party always experiences a drop in polling in the runup to the election which will probably wipe out their lead by default. Then the next year is going to be full of the media cheerleading our "recovery I think you're pretty much bang-on there. While UKIP can't really hope for more than a couple of seats their ability to split votes in marginals is going to be causing squeaky bums in policy units all over Westminster. The big unknown is how the cohort who voted for the first time in 2010 will go. They were a big factor in the Lib Dem's success but obviously are going to be massively disillusioned with them. The Tories will be hoping and praying they'll be so disillusioned that they'll just stay home, which will probably see the Tories squeak back in on a small minority. Interestingly Labour don't really seem to be making much attempt to court them beyond a limp "Eh maybe we'll put tuition fees back to 3 grand iunno", perhaps because they also believe that generation are pretty much lost. I'm still sticking with my 2010 prediction for how the 2015 election will go. They'll flog off the banks and use the money for a mostly-cosmetic tax break for the "squeezed middle" - either a VAT drop back to 17.5% or, more likely, raising stamp duty thresholds to keep the housing bubble inflated, make a lot of noise about how they've fixed all the mess Labour left but there's still work to do, and hope and pray Nigel's Merry Band self-destruct. It'll be interesting to see what effect if any the Scottish independence vote gives - a Yes vote, binding or not, will really hurt the Tories at the grass roots but is very unlikely to cause gains for UKIP or Labour, and might even weirdly be a boost for the Tories because they could turn it into "Look stop all the stupid bickering, we have to save the Union!". The one thing I don't think we'll see is a minority government or coalition. The Lib Dems will lose big but their tightest marginals are a pretty even 50/50 split between Tories and Labour so I don't think either side will get big gains from that. It's way too early to make a serious prediction but I'm going to say narrow Labour majority, Tories to oust Cameron for an ultra-dry, UKIP to pick up a seat in the worst place in the country, and the Lib Dems fragmenting back into the SDP and Liberals in all but name. I'm sort of tempted, given the success of the WC sweepstakes, to set up a book on the election nearer the time - anyone interested?
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Jun 8, 2014 11:54
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I've personally got a feeling that the Labour and Tory results from 2010 will be approximately reversed, with the Lib Dems holding onto about 35 seats. For the Greens, I think they'll narrowly lose Brighton Pavillion but narrowly win Norwich South, pushing the Lib Dems into third or even fourth.
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Jun 8, 2014 12:42
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I think Greens in coalition with Labour might be better than Lib Dem Lib Dem in power would enable the New Labour tendency toward handwaving about decentralization and choice as a panacea too much - Greens have markedly less antitax sensibilities and a more dirigiste attitude toward economic policy.
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Jun 8, 2014 12:48
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Be warned ye southerners: Red Ed is coming to redistribute your profits and send them to the benighted feckless North. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...alth-taxes.html quote:
Obviously, it's the Wail so discount the hysteria to taste.
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Jun 8, 2014 12:58
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quote:Shop owners would also be hit by new tax - even if they don't run the shop  "I don't work, therefore I shouldn't be taxed  "
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Jun 8, 2014 13:10
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Filboid Studge posted:John Bercow is still a Tory, Chuka Umunna is a Tory in all meaningful ways, and Ed Milliband, for better or worse, will be the next PM 
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Jun 8, 2014 13:16
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Well if you own a shop but you are such pleb scum that you actually work in it yourself then obviously you deserve to get taxed.
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Jun 8, 2014 13:16
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It would be mildly entertaining watching wealth redistribution turn Middlesbrough into the new Leamington Spa.
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Jun 8, 2014 13:22
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So the Paddy Power thing wasn't photoshopped, but it was computer simulated. They've now explained how they did it and have provided links to Greenpeace and other rainforest advocacy groups. If this generated some public attention and awareness of deforestation, I might actually consider this to be a good thing. I'm just being naively optimistic aren't I?
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Jun 8, 2014 13:27
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goddamnedtwisto posted:The big unknown is how the cohort who voted for the first time in 2010 will go. They were a big factor in the Lib Dem's success but obviously are going to be massively disillusioned with them. The Tories will be hoping and praying they'll be so disillusioned that they'll just stay home, which will probably see the Tories squeak back in on a small minority. Interestingly Labour don't really seem to be making much attempt to court them beyond a limp "Eh maybe we'll put tuition fees back to 3 grand iunno", perhaps because they also believe that generation are pretty much lost. banning letting agent fees a la scotland limits on rent increases security of tenancy for 3 years
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Jun 8, 2014 13:29
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My biggest fear in regards to the 2015 elections is the prospect of the Tories being successfully being able to spin the whole 'Saved the economy from the *previous government* angle.
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Jun 8, 2014 13:33
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Cerv posted:i think labour have been doing more than you give them credit for: Are they things they've actually come out and said they'd do, rather than floating trial balloons, like this wealth redistribution thing they've leaked to the Mail? Stuff that they can use to keep the Left onside but still claim they never promised to do if they got in power?
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Jun 8, 2014 13:43
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SkySteak posted:My biggest fear in regards to the 2015 elections is the prospect of the Tories being successfully being able to spin the whole 'Saved the economy from the *previous government* angle. I'm certain that's been their plan since at least 2009.
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Jun 8, 2014 13:43
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More importantly, isn't June a little early for daddy longlegs? Had loads in my house last night and today. The gormless little bastards.
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Jun 8, 2014 13:43
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