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Lawman 0 posted:Anyone want to take any bets when Kurdistan is gonna declare itself a state? Whenever there's a revolution in Baghdad, then perhaps.
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Jun 10, 2014 20:27
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Lawman 0 posted:Anyone want to take any bets when Kurdistan is gonna declare itself a state?
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Jun 10, 2014 20:27
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Ok, I was reading an article about the Kurds in Mosul. It kind of indicates that the Kurds are opposing ISIS in Iraq, and their stance is pretty militant. I don't know who Rudaw.net is but if it is propaganda then it is telling. I will try to edit in the article here in a sec. Rudaw.net/English/middleeast/Iraq/09062024
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Jun 10, 2014 20:29
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goatse.cx posted:I thought Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest US allies in the region? They're the ones funding America's nemesis? Not the Saudi government, but there's probably a lot of rich Saudis and other Gulfies that are content to kick money to ISIS under the table. Also, if ISIS starts going after the Kurds or getting close to Arbil, this is going to enter a whole new level of messiness. The Kurds possess one of the few fighting forces in Iraq that is committed and is somewhat professional, and they won't tear off their uniforms and run away like a bunch of poorly-paid conscripts.
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Jun 10, 2014 20:32
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goatse.cx posted:I thought Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest US allies in the region? They're the ones funding America's nemesis? Saudi Arabia's engaged in a cold war with Iran, and they've never cared about how their policy harms others. Also, certain wealthy individuals within the kingdom jump at the opportunity to spread their incredibly toxic brand of fundamentalism wherever they can, whenever they can.
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Jun 10, 2014 20:32
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Torpor posted:I think there are other factors involved as well. Mosul is partly Kurdish isn't it? I imagine it probably has oil near it. There is no better way to line your pocket than with oil and popular support. The PYD have been fighting ISIS for a long time now, they did sign a temporary ceasfire earlier in the year but fighting has started back up again with ISIS carrying out raids on Kurdish villages. The PYD were doing quite a good job holding back ISIS last year but cracks have started to appear in their defences and they are struggling to hold all of their territory. I would be surprised if Barzani decided to send the Peshmerga into Mosul, there is a Kurdish presence in the city (largely Shabaks who Kurdish nationalists consider Kurdish, but who don't always consider themselves to be Kurdish) but it would be a pretty divisive move that could further provoke ethnically motivated attacks. The Peshmerga are better disciplined and trained than the majority of the Iraqi army but trying to winkle ISIS out of Mosul would sap their forces considerably and leave Kurdistan vulnerable to attack. The KRG are making plenty of noise about it but at the moment the seem to be content at hanging back at the provincial border and providing aid to fleeing refugees. They may cross into Nineveh and bunker down in some of the disputed territories in the Nineveh plains though, the KRG has long desired chunks of the plains to be incorporated into Kurdistan. If the situation in Kirkuk deteriorates further that's another story though, I could see the Peshmerga being sent there. Lawman 0 posted:Anyone want to take any bets when Kurdistan is gonna declare itself a state? Kurdistan, Kosovo of the East. That would be an interesting diplomatic poo poo-storm to say the least.
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Jun 10, 2014 20:51
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suboptimal posted:Not the Saudi government, but there's probably a lot of rich Saudis and other Gulfies that are content to kick money to ISIS under the table. When the country is a monarchy and many of those rich Saudis are related to the monarchy it can get hard to distinguish what is and is not backed by the government.
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Jun 10, 2014 20:57
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ISIL is claiming to have just taken Hawijah, Iraqi Army has reportedly withdrawn. This is very close to Kirkuk, so expect increased Pashmerga activity.
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Jun 10, 2014 21:11
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kustomkarkommando posted:The PYD have been fighting ISIS for a long time now, they did sign a temporary ceasfire earlier in the year but fighting has started back up again with ISIS carrying out raids on Kurdish villages. The PYD were doing quite a good job holding back ISIS last year but cracks have started to appear in their defences and they are struggling to hold all of their territory. Thank you for your input. I think you are right about their position I don't think the Kurds are going to use this to agitate for independence, however, it might be an opportunity to attempt to get concessions from the central government as to the peshmerga. I think the central government wants them lumped into the Iraqi army. There appears to be an issue, conveniently for the Kurds, where the Iraqi army ran away and Mosul is occupied by militants. Of course what actually happens depends upon a great many factors including whether the Kurdish leadership actually gives a poo poo about Mosul, and whether the Kurdish leadership thinks they can actually win in a fight. They(the Iraqi Kurds), quite reasonably, seem to not want to actually take military action in the region. The political tides would probably need to shift to the point that Barzani and others feel like they have no recourse but to act. They do not seem particularly interested in acting opportunistically in a militant way.
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Jun 10, 2014 21:17
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JSARSOM posted:Yeah partly,
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Jun 10, 2014 22:29
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If ISIS wants Kirkuk, the last thing the Kurds care about is autonomy. The Iraqi army kind of up and walked away despite Mosul being a critical economic hub. I highly doubt the Kurds would do the same thing in Kirkuk. That could be a bitter fight, because Kirkuk is very important to the Kurds wealth. As far as the peshmerga marching to Mosul, Kurds typically take care of their own first. They re-took Rabia, but that was it for the counter-offensive. I would also say Maliki probably isn't in a good position to start making power grabs, because Baghdad isn't getting any further away from the ISIS front line. It IS a state of emergency. Bait and Swatch posted:There's a solidified command structure, Abu Dua is the current leader and has quite an impressive resume. All see if I can find the link, but I read a great article on the metrics ISIL has been using to gauge their effectiveness. Bit more in depth. quote:In the space of a year he has become the most powerful jihadi leader in the world, and on Monday night his forces captured Mosul, the northern capital of Iraq. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, also known as Abu Dua, the leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (Isis) has suddenly emerged as a figure who is shaping the future of Iraq, Syria and the wider Middle East. http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/mosul-emergency-who-is-abu-bakr-albaghdadi-9523070.html ISIS leadership is mostly old Iraqi and Syrian intelligence and military.
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Jun 10, 2014 23:27
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Maliki was talking about arming civilians to fight, which makes me think that his counterattack strategy might be to let the Shiite militias off their leash.
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Jun 10, 2014 23:55
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Best Friends posted:We spent tens if not hundreds of billions, and thousands of lives. Effort was never our problem. Hundreds of billions? More like two trillion USD, and that's still going to climb from the VA costs associated with it. JT Jag posted:If ISIS leaves them alone I think the Autonomous Region is pretty content with things the way they are. Declaring themselves independent will cause a mess with Turkey. I don't think it'd be unreasonable to say that Iraqi Kurds are probably friendlier with Turkey at this point than Baghdad. Keep in mind they're shipping oil from Iraq through Turkey despite Baghdad's protests.
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Jun 10, 2014 23:55
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Isn't almost all Sunni Arab territory in Iraq outside Maliki's control by now?
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Jun 11, 2014 00:23
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ISIS just did a little press release thing, and they claim their next target is Hawija, a town just 30 miles south of Kirkuk.
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Jun 11, 2014 00:27
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How is ISIS such a formidable force? Most reports estimate they have a maximum of 5,000 fighters.
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Jun 11, 2014 03:51
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TheIllestVillain posted:How is ISIS such a formidable force? Most reports estimate they have a maximum of 5,000 fighters. I thought the current count was 25,000 now.
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Jun 11, 2014 04:02
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TheIllestVillain posted:How is ISIS such a formidable force? Most reports estimate they have a maximum of 5,000 fighters. They seem to be organized. Other people here know more than me, but effective communication and logistics can really multiply the effectiveness of an armed force. If they can move their forces very efficiently, they can make it seem like they're everywhere at once. This also fits in the broader context of the Iraqi civil war. It isn't called that by the media, but its been in that state for like a year if not longer, in my opinion. The Sunni areas have been resisting the largely Shia rule from Baghdad for years now; the locals are probably not going to fight for the central army, even if ISIS aren't their favorite people. I don't think ISIS can really hold all this territory that they're taking, but they can sure cause a poo poo storm while they capture it.
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Jun 11, 2014 04:05
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Lawman 0 posted:I thought the current count was 25,000 now. It must be so difficult to get reliable numbers on this sort of thing. ISIS, like any rebel group, has a lot to gain from inflating its numbers. Just as governments or competing rebels will downplay the number. And few things attract recruits like success. They've probably picked up hundreds or thousands more fighters in just these past few days. How long they'll stick around is another story.
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Jun 11, 2014 04:07
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ISIS fighters have high morale and motivation too. That really becomes apparent when they go up against the ARVN-esque Iraqi Army.
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Jun 11, 2014 04:09
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If they turn the majority of the Sunni tribes, they just have to administer the area they call their caliphate. As long as the region is in chaos, the tribes won't turn on them once they have them under their thumb. This whole thing is turning into the crisis predicted by nearly everyone who watches the region.
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Jun 11, 2014 05:17
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Bait and Swatch posted:If they turn the majority of the Sunni tribes, they just have to administer the area they call their caliphate. As long as the region is in chaos, the tribes won't turn on them once they have them under their thumb. This whole thing is turning into the crisis predicted by nearly everyone who watches the region. While this is not a positive development, I think that as soon as ISIS starts doing anything resembling governing they are prone to immediate gently caress-ups. And unlike some parts of Syria they won't be impressing people by distributing pita and gas in an orderly fashion. I would say this bodes very poorly for the Maliki government and the region's stability, but sharia law / caliphate as implemented by ISIS seems untenable anywhere that's not all 20-something men with a deathwish and heavy weapons.
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Jun 11, 2014 05:49
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The weird upshot on this is that once again the United States and Iran have been forced by circumstances into being on the same side in a middle-east crisis. Strange bedfellows, huh.
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Jun 11, 2014 06:09
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So how likely is it that Iraq will Syria-ify now? This Mosul stuff is deeply unsettling. Do we have a word yet for when things become what Syria is? Balkanize? Also this sounds dumb but I've gotten consistently slamming Middle East reporting from the Foreign Policy email list, it's the only email list I actually read every day: http://id.foreignpolicy.com/identit...&KeepThis=true&
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Jun 11, 2014 06:19
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I really really hate these ISIS fucks, they're the main reason why the Iraqi resistance against the American occupation failed, they were such a bunch of horrible cavemen shitheads they destroyed peoples willingness to support them and because most of their efforts was in hijacking the resistance they pushed the tribesmen right into Patraeus's hands, since what they were offering was far worse than foreign occupation, which is a rather incredible achievement of such amazing stupidity. The fact that they're back and doing all this just kills me because theyre just such a horrible bunch of people no way people would want to have them rule even over a sectarian mass murdering dog like Maliki. Like being moderately better than maliki is such a simple thing to do yet the people who are winning against him now are the worst people on earth, what a poo poo situation.
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Jun 11, 2014 06:43
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Remember back in the day, when ISIS was a force of a few hundred trying to establish itself in Syria, and everyone said they could never hold anything because the West would have none of it? Good times. NYT had a good piece describing the context of the Iraqi army desertions in Mosul. The jist is that this wasn't the one time they were called to action and they couldn't hack it. They've been getting slaughtered with no long term goals for years, and the desertions have been a growing problem as people are just getting tired. They were losing 300 soldiers a day before Mosul even happened. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/11/world/middleeast/exhausted-and-bereft-iraqi-soldiers-quit-fight.html?_r=0
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Jun 11, 2014 08:01
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illrepute posted:The weird upshot on this is that once again the United States and Iran have been forced by circumstances into being on the same side in a middle-east crisis. Strange bedfellows, huh. And strangely enough, in a roundabout way due to Saudi actions.
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Jun 11, 2014 08:11
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Here's a bunch of vehicle abandoned outside Mosul by the Iraqi army https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bt9Z8_8ZWvg More footage from Mosul https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MTkk0QdeCyE Abandoned uniforms https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCFfY98XEFI Mosul this morning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZawjvRlBdOg Supposedly a Kurdish deserter explaining what happened in Mosul https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO1QbEB_LnE Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 08:45 on Jun 11, 2014 |
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Jun 11, 2014 08:23
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Episode II of the Internet State of Iraq and al-Sham podcast herequote:In the second episode Jonathan speaks with "freelance" jihadi Abu Bakr (LifeOfMujahid on Twitter) about the withdraw of ISIS from Idlib, and the reaction of the locals after the withdrawal. Part 1 of a new Vice News film on Daraa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=86yvb2VEqDA Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 09:02 on Jun 11, 2014 |
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Jun 11, 2014 08:54
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illrepute posted:The weird upshot on this is that once again the United States and Iran have been forced by circumstances into being on the same side in a middle-east crisis. Strange bedfellows, huh. I was about to write a post about how much sense rapprochement with Iran would make post-9/11, but on the other hand such a powerful alliance would probably be worse for the Middle East in the long run.
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Jun 11, 2014 09:18
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Mosul's governor just acknowledge ISIS stole millions of dollars from Mosul's central bank. Some sources have claimed it's close to half a billion dollars.
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Jun 11, 2014 09:28
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New photos from ISIS show them knocking a hole through the Ninawa (Iraq)-Hasakah (Syria) border and driving capture Iraqi army vehicles into Syria.
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Jun 11, 2014 11:34
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illrepute posted:The weird upshot on this is that once again the United States and Iran have been forced by circumstances into being on the same side in a middle-east crisis. Strange bedfellows, huh. Yes, I'm quite curious to see what if anything comes of this. It bodes well for the nuclear negotiations, at least.
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Jun 11, 2014 12:51
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Aymenn Jawad al-Tamimi has just done a piece for my blog on why Mosul isn't just about ISIS, Saraya al-Madina al-Munawara: A Revived Iraqi Insurgent Brand.
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Jun 11, 2014 14:12
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Apparently ISIS captured the Turkish consulate today and they kidnapped around 30 people, including the consul. The security forces of the consulate surrendered without a fight.
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Jun 11, 2014 14:26
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I see Tikrit is currently under attack, photos from ISIS claim to show their fighters already inside the city.
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Jun 11, 2014 14:29
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Brown Moses posted:I see Tikrit is currently under attack, photos from ISIS claim to show their fighters already inside the city. This is now getting worrying and looking less like a raid and more like all out war/overthrow. At the pace they are going they could conceivably be at Baghdad by the weekend, hopefully this will be enough to force the Iraqi army to start offering them some significant resistance.
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Jun 11, 2014 14:45
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Some reports from Iraq Tikrit has already fallen to ISIS (for example here).
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Jun 11, 2014 14:52
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ukle posted:This is now getting worrying and looking less like a raid and more like all out war/overthrow. At the pace they are going they could conceivably be at Baghdad by the weekend, hopefully this will be enough to force the Iraqi army to start offering them some significant resistance. There is no way they can take Baghdad because the sectarian presence will turn into a super meat grinder. That and I doubt America and Iran are gonna let them win willy nilly. If this had been a more benevolent force then yeah Baghdad would be in trouble but because it's loving alqaeda the Shiites will fight with everything they've got. I'm honestly shocked by how much they've gotten this far. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 15:18 on Jun 11, 2014 |
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Jun 11, 2014 15:15
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http://justpaste.it/kasr_hodod Mark Sykes am cry
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Jun 11, 2014 15:16
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