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Here's a Twitter list of people tweeting the latest news from Iraq. This pro-government outlet just claimed Tikrit fell to ISIS. Brown Moses fucked around with this message at 15:25 on Jun 11, 2014 |
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Jun 11, 2014 15:17
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Another day, another lightning blitz: AFP reporting militants engaging security forces in Samarra now, home to an important Shia shrine and the last major city before Baghdad's suburbs. I've also seen some analysis suggesting that other Sunni Islamist militias, like the Sufi group and the GMC, have been fighting alongside ISIS. Appears well coordinated.
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Jun 11, 2014 15:40
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This may be a stupid question and/or hyperbole, but are we approaching a World War I situation with the Middle East right now? It seems like Syria's conflict is spilling over into other countries and could conceivably cause a domino effect.
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Jun 11, 2014 15:42
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Chokes McGee posted:This may be a stupid question and/or hyperbole, but are we approaching a World War I situation with the Middle East right now? It seems like Syria's conflict is spilling over into other countries and could conceivably cause a domino effect. If you mean a "triggered alliance system" probably not. If you mean a bitter statement costing many many lives, certainly is possible. I wonder how many refugees Jordan can take? I wonder what the balance between citizens and refugees at this point is.
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Jun 11, 2014 15:49
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Shia militias are on the front lines in Samarra now. This will be a test case for ISIS' advance since it'll likely be the first stiff resistance encountered since taking Mosul.
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Jun 11, 2014 15:52
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Chokes McGee posted:This may be a stupid question and/or hyperbole, but are we approaching a World War I situation with the Middle East right now? It seems like Syria's conflict is spilling over into other countries and could conceivably cause a domino effect. There's only one concievable endgame, now.
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Jun 11, 2014 16:36
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PleasingFungus posted:There's only one concievable endgame, now. Man they don't have cores on half of those provinces. 
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Jun 11, 2014 16:41
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PleasingFungus posted:There's only one concievable endgame, now. Ah yes, i forgot Portugal still controlled the coast of Angola and Mozambique.
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Jun 11, 2014 16:41
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I was kinda under the impression that the Iraq army is really just there to hang out and collect paychecks until someone more well-organized or interested in taking their poo poo came in and they'd all just run away and let them do their thing. I also kinda think that's what's gonna happen with Afghanistan, if they even last a year after the US troops finish withdrawing. I'm no expert though. What I'm wondering now is what exactly is gonna happen in the worst case scenario here? Like if the Iraqi army just dissolves entirely and ISIS rolls in in like a couple weeks. What's their endgame? Are they gonna try to run these countries themselves?
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Jun 11, 2014 16:47
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Mans posted:Ah yes, i forgot Portugal still controlled the coast of Angola and Mozambique. And thank God that Austria-Hungary is there to protect Europe from the new Caliphate.
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Jun 11, 2014 16:49
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ChairMaster posted:I was kinda under the impression that the Iraq army is really just there to hang out and collect paychecks until someone more well-organized or interested in taking their poo poo came in and they'd all just run away and let them do their thing. I also kinda think that's what's gonna happen with Afghanistan, if they even last a year after the US troops finish withdrawing. I'm no expert though. They wont win. Iraq is 60% Shiite and Alqaeda dont have the brains needed to make the classic lesson that to win a guerrilla war you need to appeal to different sides of the society you fight in and be an inclusive, so worst comes to worst a stalemate bloodbath and a splitting of the country.
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Jun 11, 2014 16:49
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ChairMaster posted:I was kinda under the impression that the Iraq army is really just there to hang out and collect paychecks until someone more well-organized or interested in taking their poo poo came in and they'd all just run away and let them do their thing. I also kinda think that's what's gonna happen with Afghanistan, if they even last a year after the US troops finish withdrawing. I'm no expert though. Well they're not even getting paid so they're not even doing that well.
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Jun 11, 2014 16:50
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PleasingFungus posted:There's only one concievable endgame, now. Why stop at India? Why not China if they're taking on nuclear armed, non-muslim countries with populations of more than a billion? Jesus Horse fucked around with this message at 16:57 on Jun 11, 2014 |
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Jun 11, 2014 16:52
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Al-Saqr posted:They wont win. Iraq is 60% Shiite and Alqaeda dont have the brains needed to make the classic lesson that to win a guerrilla war you need to appeal to different sides of the society you fight in and be an inclusive, so worst comes to worst a stalemate bloodbath and a splitting of the country. Yeah, it's impossible to see them making much headway in the Shia provinces. Bigger risk is another sectarian war in Baghdad.
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Jun 11, 2014 17:00
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I think the US should have organized an orderly partitioning of Iraq. As we may end up with a disorganized partitioning, with worse outcomes. So who holds what in Mosul now? I have heard that ISIS holds the western half, but who has the eastern half? I didn't think the peshmerga had surreptitiously taken anywhere near that much of the city, why doesn't ISIS just drive across the river?
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Jun 11, 2014 17:10
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 :iamafag:
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Jun 11, 2014 17:15
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Xandu posted:Yeah, it's impossible to see them making much headway in the Shia provinces. Bigger risk is another sectarian war in Baghdad. Well, once they took Pakistan and Malaysia, they needed to take India and Burma for pretty borders and to avoid a distant overseas penalty, obviously.
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Jun 11, 2014 17:16
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So I guess now Bush can poke his head out and say "I told you about that Islamic caliphate." (Also iPhone voice recognition wants to write "Bush can" as "Bushkin" which is enjoyable to me)
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Jun 11, 2014 17:17
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Brown Moses posted:New photos from ISIS show them knocking a hole through the Ninawa (Iraq)-Hasakah (Syria) border and driving capture Iraqi army vehicles into Syria. YPG are claiming that they've captured a number of these vehicles from ISIS. Maybe owning a humvee instead of a Toyota will become the new Mid-East militant status symbol.  SedanChair posted:So I guess now Bush can poke his head out and say "I told you about that Islamic caliphate." 
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Jun 11, 2014 18:50
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goodog posted:YPG are claiming that they've captured a number of these vehicles from ISIS. Maybe owning a humvee instead of a Toyota will become the new Mid-East militant status symbol. At this point I'm waiting for ISIS to start cobbling together tanks from scraps. Actually didn't Saddam used to make tanks for his army in northern Iraq?
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Jun 11, 2014 19:16
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Now would be a good time for some unity amongst the Kurds. Too bad Turkish Kurds are sucking Erdogan's cock, Syrian Kurds are trying not to get shot, and Barzani is just hoping someone will pay him for oil. Meanwhile CNN is talking about Bowe Bergdahl.
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Jun 11, 2014 19:22
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I'm highly skeptical that 500m dollars worth of Iraqi dinars is all that convertible.
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Jun 11, 2014 19:29
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Xandu posted:I'm highly skeptical that 500m dollars worth of Iraqi dinars is all that convertible. I'm really curious about this too, and the endgame from the ISIS perspective in general. I get that their rank and file are probably the true-believer global-caliphate-or-bust types, but the leadership has to be more pragmatic than that, don't they? At some point they'll run out of steam, and even if they can hold territory they've got to work with the world on some level if they want to spend their stolen money... And what do the Saudi's have to gain from bankrolling them anyway? Does this really all just boil down to the Sunnis and Shia sticking it to eachother?
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Jun 11, 2014 19:52
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I'm not sure how globally minded they really are, either. aqap was planning global attacks against the west in its infancy, these guys are more regionally focused and probably will be for a while.
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Jun 11, 2014 20:02
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Xandu posted:I'm highly skeptical that 500m dollars worth of Iraqi dinars is all that convertible. It's not like a major country in the region was involved in illegal trade involving gold and a highly unsavory nation just a little while ago.
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Jun 11, 2014 20:20
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Yeah but even at a steep discount, who wants Iraqi dinars? It's also becoming clear there are tribal and Baathist elements at work here, we'll see if it's actually ISIS with this money.
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Jun 11, 2014 20:29
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This may just be me, but I am finding the recent articles making ISIL's leader sound like some Takfiri Ninja incredibly obnoxious. He and his group deserve nothing but contempt. The constant references to "Abu Bakr al Baghdadi" are equally vexing, given that his name and picture are widely known. Using his entirely fake kunya is like referencing someone as Big Jim from Detroit in a news article. Or perhaps this is just my frustration with the constantly bad news getting the better of me and making me grumpy.
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Jun 11, 2014 20:37
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Well their ideology is obviously worthy of contempt, but their military prowess doesn't seem to be in question.
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Jun 11, 2014 20:39
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Lawman 0 posted:At this point I'm waiting for ISIS to start cobbling together tanks from scraps.
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Jun 11, 2014 20:56
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Xandu posted:I'm highly skeptical that 500m dollars worth of Iraqi dinars is all that convertible. At least one report claimed a decent portion of that $500m was in gold. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/mosul-seized-jihadis-loot-429m-citys-central-bank-make-isis-worlds-richest-terror-force-1452190
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Jun 11, 2014 21:16
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Well, at least on Twitter the Turks can cause havoc.
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Jun 11, 2014 21:32
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IA and militia forces reportedly grouping in Taji and building defensive positions. I am guessing this is actual prep work for a counter-attack, since I don't see them giving up Samarra, Balad and Baqubah so easily. There's also reports of Shiite militia fighting ISIL in Samarra now. I hope they hold them there, the region will go apeshit if ISIL gets control of the Golden Mosque.
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Jun 11, 2014 21:51
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Don't forget how brutal the Mahdi army was, this won't end well with Shia militias involved.
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Jun 11, 2014 21:58
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JT Jag posted:Are you saying that ISIS are Orks? The black 'uns go (to paradise) fasta!
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Jun 11, 2014 22:13
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Jonad posted:The black 'uns go (to paradise) fasta! You beat me, you thrice-damned cur!  Xandu posted:Don't forget how brutal the Mahdi army was, this won't end well with Shia militias involved. What happened to those? I seem to recall Moqtada calling it quits some time ago, but I can't imagine Sadr city just going 'welp', disarming and becoming well adjusted citizens just like that?
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Jun 11, 2014 22:24
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Some of you might remember footage of a multiple rocket attack on Nawa I posted about a month ago. Well, it seems Israel managed to film the attack from their side of the border, and the IDF produced this video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbG0YAg6_1I
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Jun 11, 2014 22:24
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Remember that rocket attack on Nawa we talked about in here a while back? Seems the Israelis caught it https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbG0YAg6_1I e: Dammit BM 
Radio Prune fucked around with this message at 22:27 on Jun 11, 2014 |
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Jun 11, 2014 22:24
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Jun 11, 2014 22:31
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Kawaii des! 
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Jun 11, 2014 22:40
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Tias posted:What happened to those? I seem to recall Moqtada calling it quits some time ago, but I can't imagine Sadr city just going 'welp', disarming and becoming well adjusted citizens just like that? Sadr's been calling for men to defend Shiite religious sites, so I wouldn't be shocked if the Madhi army gets reformed in some fashion.
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Jun 11, 2014 22:41
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