Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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botany: Apr 27, 2013; by Lowtax

whatever7 posted:

When the majority has strong and commanding control, they have the confidence to give the minorities more space and freedom.

Ah yes, all that freedom for Catholics in Northern Ireland :allears:

# ? Aug 23, 2014 16:26

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# ? May 18, 2024 17:17

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

whatever7 posted:

I don't know why you people are so against partitioning. Its really important that the ethnic/sectarian majority has control of the state machine. Look at Islamic minority in India and Shia minority in Pakistan. When the majority has strong and commanding control, they have the confidence to give the minorities more space and freedom.

Minority ruling over majority in a modern country is time bomb waiting to explode. I will give you three classic examples, Rwanda, Syria, Iraq. The only country I can think off that went through non violent transition is South Africa.

This is an argument for popular rule though, not partition.

And this dynamic doesn't really apply to Iraq, Sunni Arabs make up 20℅ of the population tops so instead partition word be to protect a minority from the tyranny of a majority - not the other way around.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 16:30

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

Negative Entropy posted:

Source? Some extraordinary claims there and I'm not seeing anything on google.

How about a HRW article for a quick overview? I'll try and find a timeline I read (lugha kwa kiswahili) of ~40 targetted Imam killings.

http://m.hrw.org/news/2014/08/18/kenya-killings-disappearances-anti-terror-police

E:

Frontline Investigates posted:

New questions about the future of extraordinary rendition have now surfaced a world away in East Africa. Grey travels to Mombasa, Kenya, a Muslim city on the Indian Ocean to chase down a rumor of a rendition that took place earlier this year.

This is also the region where al Qaeda declared war on America in 1998 with simultaneous bombings on the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, which killed more than 200 people, mostly Africans. The man accused of coordinating the attacks, Fazul Abdullah, alias Harun, has never been caught.
Fazul was said to be hiding in Somalia. Last December, when Ethiopia moved its army into Somalia, the United States went after him, launching bombing raids against the country’s suspected al Qaeda hideouts. Thousands fled for the Kenyan border. Some were picked up in a dragnet by the Kenyan anti-terrorist police and disappeared without a trace.

Outraged Muslims in Mombasa began to protest and a Kenyan human rights lawyer took up the cause. The activist, Alamin Kimathi, shows Grey a flight manifest he obtained as part of the court case. It is rare documentary evidence of an extraordinary rendition. The Kenyans had taken a page out the CIA’s handbook. Eighty-five people, including 11 children, had been put on the planes. The passenger list includes Fazul Abdullah’s wife and daughters.

Kimathi tells Grey he believes the wife and children were “hostages…pure and simple,” detained in an effort to “smoke out” Fazul Abdullah. The tactic did not work.

A former FBI agent involved in anti-terrorist work, Jack Cloonan, says he believes the Kenyans would not have acted without the knowledge and support of the U.S. “It would be naÃƒÂ¯ve frankly in this day and age to think that the FBI or the CIA, primarily the CIA, is not witting of what's going on. In point of fact I’d suggest to you that they probably were witting and they were the power brokers behind the scenes pushing this forward.”
The prisoners were “rendered” on a Kenyan plane to Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, a U.S. ally, which has its own conflicts with neighboring Muslim countries.

Grey believes this could be an indication of a new way in which renditions are being carried out by third countries, while U.S. officials remain in the shadows.
“It’s disappointing,” says former FBI special agent Jack Cloonan. “The thing that you saw in Africa, where people are being held incommunicado and have no legal representation and potentially abused, is unacceptable. You're setting up yourself for revenge by al Qaeda and other Islamists.”

From: http://www.pbs.org/frontlineworld/stories/rendition701/video/video_index.html

E2:

And another good report from HRW:
http://m.hrw.org/reports/2008/09/30/why-am-i-still-here-0

My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 16:34

ReV VAdAUL: Oct 3, 2004; I'm WILD about
WILDMAN

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9mr2QMZIFY

This report states that IS are no longer using convoys in some parts of Northern Iraq. It focuses on how this adaptation makes US airstrikes less effective but an army that can no longer move supplies en masse is at a considerable disadvantage. Hopefully Peshmerga logistics are effective enough to exploit this.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 16:59

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

Count Roland posted:

I don't know if India is the best example for why partitioning is a good thing. Millions died during the initial partition, thousands more in later wars and as Pakistan further broke up. India and Pakistan are regularly on the brink of war and are pointing nuclear weapons at some of the most populated places on the planet.

Pakistan and Bangaldesh would have splitted eventually anyway. Geographically it made no sense.

I argue the outcome of the India partition (no counting the civilian on civilian atrocity during the break up) is still the best outcome could have achieved in Iraq. First of all, where do you see Sunni and Shia living peacefully together in any Middle East country anyway? Its not going to happen. Once you split the country you can lower the civilian death. Money can be dispatched for the relocation cost. When India and Pakistan went to wars (with refub US weapons on both sides btw), they were soldiers killing soldiers. I don't have a problem with that.

Once the state machines monopolize the use of violent, you can try to stop the war between two countries through international levers. Currently UN or the international community has pretty much no effective way to stop civil war. Thats how Putin cheat in his surrounding countries.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 17:13

whatever7: Jul 26, 2001; by LITERALLY AN ADMIN

kustomkarkommando posted:

This is an argument for popular rule though, not partition.

And this dynamic doesn't really apply to Iraq, Sunni Arabs make up 20℅ of the population tops so instead partition word be to protect a minority from the tyranny of a majority - not the other way around.

The situation in Iraq is that the Kurds have had effective independence for too long. They will have if not their own country, at lease a highly autonomous region. Whatever you give to the kurds, you have to also give it to the Sunni.

This is something I blame the US. You can not break the Westphalian system and start toppling regimes without presenting a plan most people in country are satisfy with. If in the future North Korea start crumbling down, South Korea and China have to be the players who take the initiative to rebuild the country, not the US.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 17:27

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

A few explosions inside Kirkuk. 10 dead.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 17:30

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

From the NYT.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 17:36

kustomkarkommando: Oct 22, 2012

whatever7 posted:

The situation in Iraq is that the Kurds have had effective independence for too long. They will have if not their own country, at lease a highly autonomous region. Whatever you give to the kurds, you have to also give it to the Sunni.

This is something I blame the US. You can not break the Westphalian system and start toppling regimes without presenting a plan most people in country are satisfy with.

The US did specifically ensure that a mechanism was added to the Iraqi constitution to extend the rights granted to Kurdistan to other areas in Iraq, the problem has always been the unwillingness of the Federal government to allow the free exercise of this right. As per Articles 119 & 120:

Iraqi Constitution posted:

Article 119:
One or more governorates shall have the right to organize into a region based on a request
to be voted on in a referendum submitted in one of the following two methods:

First: A request by one-third of the council members of each governorate intending to
form a region.

Second: A request by one-tenth of the voters in each of the governorates intending to
form a region.

Article 120:
Each region shall adopt a constitution of its own that defines the structure of powers of
the region, its authorities, and the mechanisms for exercising such authorities, provided
that it does not contradict this Constitution.

The Shia Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq wants to use these articles to create an autonomous Shia Region in the south of the country, a plan opposed by other Shia parties like Dawa who fear the possibility it would be dominated by activist clerical authorities. Similarly some Sunni groups want to use these articles (and actually tried to) to create autonomous regions in the North and West but again encountered stiff opposition not only from Shia groups but also from Baathist remnants who strongly oppose regional autonomy in any form as they see it as a step towards a partition of Iraq, something that they do not actually want.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 17:57

Brown Moses: Feb 22, 2002

I've published my piece geolocating the James Foley video, Maddow should have waited a day.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:00

My Imaginary GF: Jul 17, 2005; by R. Guyovich

whatever7 posted:

Pakistan and Bangaldesh would have splitted eventually anyway. Geographically it made no sense.

I argue the outcome of the India partition (no counting the civilian on civilian atrocity during the break up) is still the best outcome could have achieved in Iraq. First of all, where do you see Sunni and Shia living peacefully together in any Middle East country anyway? Its not going to happen. Once you split the country you can lower the civilian death. Money can be dispatched for the relocation cost. When India and Pakistan went to wars (with refub US weapons on both sides btw), they were soldiers killing soldiers. I don't have a problem with that.

I think keen observers of Iraq are resigned to the inevitude of ethnic cleansing, genocide, and population transfers in order for Iraq to exist as a stable state. There aren't any clean policy options on the table for Iraq. One of the hardest questions faced is which groups to support when civilian casualties are the eventual outcome, without taking too great of a PR hit among your own citizens. As long as local security forces and civilians are carrying out extrajudicial activity, a layer of plausible deniability exists.

I've found this article to be a great primer on the complexities of the current Sunni/Shia divide and its deep roots.

To answer one of your questions, I haven't seen many articles on the Sunni/Shia divide within Israel or America. I suppose it may partially depend on whether Druze are considered to be Shia. One of the largest contentions which remains from the polytheistic-monotheistic transition is that monotheism only allows for one god, while polytheistic religions allow for the transition between favored dieties within their pantheons.

One can mark the transition from the classical to medieval world with the adoption of monotheism in Europe. This may seem a historical relic, yet holds insight into the modern Sunni-Shia divide: when there is only one god, the argument becomes about how to best pursue orthodox worship as a matter state policy, rather than the polytheistic arguments of which gods are the most favored at any point in time and which diety is best suited for state policy to propriate.

East and West Pakistan were not destined to split before the independence of India; however, the demographic changes within India after independence prevented rapid east-west social exchange between East and West Pakistan, which weakened the familial ties between the majority populations within those states and led, with India's backing, to Bangladeshi independence. One can witness a similar situation occuring with the divide between Gaza and West Bank. While there was a state sanction part to the Indo-Pakistan wars, the majority of demographic changes were caused by extrajudicial means. One need not send in troops to kill civilians of the wrong religion, when civilians of the state-subsidized religion are both willing and eager to do so themselves.

E: In 20 years, I can't wait to read the histories of ISIS and Iraq which discuss Obama/Clinton's Re-Baathification policy.

My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 18:14 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:10

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

This generation of kids growing up under ISIS is so hosed.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:38

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

Volkerball posted:

This generation of kids growing up under ISIS is so hosed.

Babby's first decapitation

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:41

Zedsdeadbaby: Jun 14, 2008; You have been called out, in the ways of old.

At that kid's age, I used to lop the heads off my action man dolls and my sisters' barbie dolls and swap the heads around.

But yeah that's pretty hosed. The day IS goes, there's going to be a lot of people who need reprogramming to fit back into normal society.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:42

Gniwu: Dec 18, 2002

Imagine the kind of social damage this group will do if it holds on to its current territory for just five more years.

Edit: Beaten by the Zed's dead baby, how is that!

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:43

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

At that kid's age, I used to lop the heads off my action man dolls and my sisters' barbie dolls and swap the heads around.

The funny part is the way that kid laid the "body" out. You know drat well they showed him that video.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:44

The New Black: Oct 1, 2006; Had it, lost it.

New Division posted:

Babby's first decapitation

My Little Foley?

e: yes i'm the worst

The New Black fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:45

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

The New Black posted:

My Little Foley?

i hate you

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:46

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

Zedsdeadbaby posted:

At that kid's age, I used to lop the heads off my action man dolls and my sisters' barbie dolls and swap the heads around.

But yeah that's pretty hosed. The day IS goes, there's going to be a lot of people who need reprogramming to fit back into normal society.

Eh, ISIS is definitely a new breed of brutal, but this poo poo has been going on the area for over a decade now. ISIS is just more public about putting it on facebook and twitter

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:46

Novikov: Aug 9, 2014

New Division posted:

Eh, ISIS is definitely a new breed of brutal, but this poo poo has been going on the area for over a decade now. ISIS is just more public about putting it on facebook and twitter

Yeah, the social-media aspect of this conflict is very eery. While we use facebook and twitter to upload pictures of our pets, they are using them to conduct a bloody war.

It blows my mind.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:49

WoodrowSkillson: Feb 24, 2005; *Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

My hope is we can just keep lobbing bombs at the people that try and recreate the khmer rouge, and let the rest of the middle east sort their own poo poo out. Humans have fought wars of some kind or another since we have had tribes, and no solution imposed by an outside group will truly avoid war in the region.

If we can just avoid genocide and mass murder and instead see forced displacement of people, I'd consider that an ok outcome. Not that its a good one.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:50

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

WoodrowSkillson posted:

My hope is we can just keep lobbing bombs at the people that try and recreate the khmer rouge, and let the rest of the middle east sort their own poo poo out. Humans have fought wars of some kind or another since we have had tribes, and no solution imposed by an outside group will truly avoid war in the region.

Heavy bombing arguably helped propel the Khmer rouge to power in the first place. Thanks Kissinger!

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:52

Mc Do Well: Aug 2, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

Dropping traditional ordinance is inadequate. The region needs a sneak preview of what will happen if they don't start cooperating.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:54

WoodrowSkillson: Feb 24, 2005; *Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

New Division posted:

Heavy bombing arguably helped create the Khmer rouge in the first place. Thanks Kissinger!

I understand this, but the current campaign of loving up ISIS positions and convoys and so far only killing combatants seems acceptable so far.

Which means we will do something astronomically stupid soon.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:54

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

Novikov posted:

Yeah, the social-media aspect of this conflict is very eery. While we use facebook and twitter to upload pictures of our pets, they are using them to conduct a bloody war.

It blows my mind.

"Hold on Ahmed, don't shoot that RPG yet! I've got to get my iPhone out so I can put this on Instagram!"

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:55

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIdpLuQEnrY

This video appears to show the Kurds with artillery. If that is accurate that is probably the first time I have seen them with proper artillery that isn't a tank.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EElfcgXrDa8

Also this video of a rocket firing that would make Stalin proud.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 18:55

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/08/21/was-u-s-journalist-steven-sotloff-a-marked-man.html

Interesting piece that suggests a gung-ho Canadian freelancer may have put Steven Sotloff at risk on account of his sloppy pursuit of a fixer. My only issue is that the author, Ben Taub, makes himself sound a bit like a veteran journo, not an Ivy League kid who spent a summer freelancing across the world who just has a few pieces to his name. The Canadian mentioned has since posted a rebuttal:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news...hboard/follows/

Honestly, Ben spends a lot of time admonishing "Alex," an older, established photographer for being too amateur, when in fact Ben himself, a mere 22 years of age, without language skills and between college classes, was bumming around northern Syria to build his portfolio. If Kilis was as saturated with spies and jihadist informants as he suggests -- and he spent considerable time with Steven and Alex -- he can't omit how his presence might have affected things.

MothraAttack fucked around with this message at 19:06 on Aug 23, 2014

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:01

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64wrJC98TTM

Here is a video potentially showing a YPG female fighter actually fighting. The kurds also loving really, really like to hold hands and dance.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:06

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

MothraAttack posted:

Honestly, Ben spends a lot of time admonishing "Alex," an older, established photographer for being too amateur, when in fact Ben himself, a mere 22 years of age, without language skills and between college classes, was bumming around northern Syria to build his portfolio. If Kilis was as saturated with spies and jihadist informants as he suggests -- and he spent considerable time with Steven and Alex -- he can't omit how his presence might have affected things.

He didn't even go into Syria, he just hung around Turkey.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:09

THE BOMBINATRIX: Jul 26, 2002; by Lowtax

ReV VAdAUL posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E9mr2QMZIFY

This report states that IS are no longer using convoys in some parts of Northern Iraq. It focuses on how this adaptation makes US airstrikes less effective but an army that can no longer move supplies en masse is at a considerable disadvantage. Hopefully Peshmerga logistics are effective enough to exploit this.

Not available in the US. :negative:

Anyone have a different link?

Loving these videos of the Kurds fighting back.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:09

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

Xandu posted:

He didn't even go into Syria, he just hung around Turkey.

That's not what his FFR profile says, though.

https://frontlinefreelance.org/member/ben-taub

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:12

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

The Misratan aligned militias seem to have driven the Zintani aligned militias completely away from the smoldering wreckage of Tripoli International Airport. I'm not sure that taking control of a ruined airport is all that important in a military sense, but symbolically it's got some importance.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:15

Torpor: Oct 20, 2008; .. and now for my next trick, I'll pretend to be a political commentator...

HONK HONK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-O0Kp2HS_Nc

YPG military parade.

YPG military sedans and minivanss are practical, but lack gravitas.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:27

Cocoa Ninja: Mar 3, 2007

Torpor posted:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=64wrJC98TTM

Here is a video potentially showing a YPG female fighter actually fighting. The kurds also loving really, really like to hold hands and dance.

Awesome. I don't know a lot about sniper rifles but a lot of those seem huge -- only the woman's rifle seems a more reasonable size.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:28

WoodrowSkillson: Feb 24, 2005; *Gestures at 60 years of Lions history*

Cocoa Ninja posted:

Awesome. I don't know a lot about sniper rifles but a lot of those seem huge -- only the woman's rifle seems a more reasonable size.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrett_M82

Having a huge bullet means you can shoot it really far and still be pretty accurate if you know what you are doing.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:33

Xandu: Feb 19, 2006; It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.

MothraAttack posted:

That's not what his FFR profile says, though.

https://frontlinefreelance.org/member/ben-taub

Ah, was going off the Daily Beast profile, but he seems to have gone into Bab al-Salama refugee camp, which is literally on the Turkish border.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:36

Volkerball: Oct 15, 2009; by FactsAreUseless

WoodrowSkillson posted:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Barrett_M82

Having a huge bullet means you can shoot it really far and still be pretty accurate if you know what you are doing.

Also gives you more leeway to miss. You can miss by a foot with a .50 and still rip someone in half.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:38

MothraAttack: Apr 28, 2008

Xandu posted:

Ah, was going off the Daily Beast profile, but he seems to have gone into Bab al-Salama refugee camp, which is literally on the Turkish border.

Yeah, seems like he's just playing that part up on his profile then. If Alex (Yves) did share some of the FB messages with Globe and Mail, as they say, it does dispute Ben's version a bit. Either way, Ben shows how fully a madhouse Kilis was when Sotloff came through. Sad stuff all around.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:40

Rent-A-Cop: Oct 15, 2004; I posted my food for USPOL Thanksgiving!

Cocoa Ninja posted:

Awesome. I don't know a lot about sniper rifles but a lot of those seem huge -- only the woman's rifle seems a more reasonable size.

The two big ones in that video (might be two shots of the same gun) are .50 anti-materiel rifles. Good for ruining pretty much anything you can hit that's smaller than an IFV, and very impressive for propaganda videos. The woman looked like she was using an AK of some sort with a scope. Might be an accurized marksman's rifle or just a standard Tabuk/Zastava/Type 56/etc.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:41

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# ? May 18, 2024 17:17

New Division: Jun 23, 2004; I beg to present to you as a Christmas gift, Mr. Lombardi, the city of Detroit.

The Libyan Dawn (basically the Misratan aligned militias) are declaring that they hold Egypt and the UAE responsible for the airstrikes hitting Tripoli in the past few days. Haftar's claimed those airstrikes, but no one seems to be believe his little air squadron is capable of anything more than errantly bombing homes in Benghazi.

I highly doubt the UAE is actually doing anything, but Egypt is another question. They've had a lot of soldiers on the Libyan border get killed in skirmishes lately and seem to be contemplating some kind of intervention.

# ? Aug 23, 2014 19:53

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Middle East Thread of Despair: More Broken Than Syria

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