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Are there any limitations on what China can do to Hong Kong, up to 'putting a new government in of their own and saying screw you to the existing setup'?
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Sep 30, 2014 00:24
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What is going on with Occupy Disco Bay? Surely they're playing a huge part in this. The Plaza must be swarmed. Hemingway's will be offering 20% off cheese plates.
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Sep 30, 2014 00:31
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Warcabbit posted:Are there any limitations on what China can do to Hong Kong, up to 'putting a new government in of their own and saying screw you to the existing setup'? "It would look exceptionally bad." Don't underestimate that. The Chinese government often does things that look bad on camera, but here there's a lot more people watching and a lot less of an excuse, especially because the protests have been organized, peaceful, and fairly amiable. Like, the Chinese can make a case for how the disputed territories are THEIRS and even if people laugh at their case it is a case and they can argue it and there's some evidence for it. Killing one-country two-systems would be hugely problematic for a lot of their relations, especially since Hong Kong is their crown jewel and rather important for a lot of people. I think at worst you'll see some arrests and the status quo, because China gets most of what it wants already and forcibly annexing Hong Kong and making it comply with Chinese law would just look exceptionally bad and have zero benefit to anyone, period.
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Sep 30, 2014 00:31
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Reminder to everyone not in HK that there are emergency rallies being held in solidarity all over the world on Wednesday, check the calendar for details. Won't do much I know but at least it'll show people outside care 
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Sep 30, 2014 02:01
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Small White Dragon posted:This is interesting. Most people in Taiwan expect China to forcefully occupy it, or...? When I was living there, most people I spoke with were of the opinion that either China would invade and nobody would help or the pro-China government would slowly turn them into an SAR. Most Taiwanese have a "We are just a small country, we can't do anything" mentality. That was years ago, though, and I'm happy to see the younger generation standing up for themselves. My father in law reveres China but most of my wife's generation want nothing to do with China. Even if China somehow became democratic, a lot of the younger folks have enough of a national identity that they would never want reunification. They're proud of being Taiwanese. China might miss the boat if they can't get the current government to kowtow, and even the pro-China President (9% popularity rating in Taiwan) has spoken out against China dicking with HK.
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Sep 30, 2014 02:23
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Tuxedo Gin posted:That was years ago, though, and I'm happy to see the younger generation standing up for themselves. My father in law reveres China but most of my wife's generation want nothing to do with China. Even if China somehow became democratic, a lot of the younger folks have enough of a national identity that they would never want reunification. They're proud of being Taiwanese. China might miss the boat if they can't get the current government to kowtow, and even the pro-China President (9% popularity rating in Taiwan) has spoken out against China dicking with HK. Huh, wasn't he from the generation that fought the civil war? Or is he actually younger than that?
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Sep 30, 2014 02:45
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Fuschia tude posted:Huh, wasn't he from the generation that fought the civil war? Or is he actually younger than that? He's younger than that, and their family was in Taiwan earlier than the split. Not sure how long ago, but my wife's grandmother doesn't speak Mandarin - only Taiwanese.
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Sep 30, 2014 02:50
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Invisible Handjob posted:It's like testicle pain, like you're so bored your balls ache and you have nothing else better to do with your time so you do this stuff. I talked to some people here in Taipei last night about it. They are paying attention to it closely, because hong kong and Taiwan share a lot of close ties and because HK is sort of the model for what an ideal re-integration with mainland china would look like. My friend who is almost 50 said, " I think last night was the worst it is going to be. They won't send the army to hong kong." he was talking about the police response with tear gas, and thinking about 1989 since he was old enough to remember it. Another of my friends, office worker in her 30s, said she supported the protests in hong kong, and she went to the rallies in Taipei when the Taiwanese president signed the free trade expansion deal with China. She's keeping an eye on it, and said tons of stuff was showing up on her Facebook. I talked to another Taiwanese guy in his 40s who works in Shanghai and was visiting, but he didn't have much to say and changed the subject. So there's your man on the street interviews about what Taiwanese people are thinking right now. Most Taiwanese people, especially when you meet them traveling, are proud to say "I'm Taiwanese, not Chinese!" I think literally no one expects china to forcefully occupy Taiwan. They just expect their freedom to be signed away one day in a back room deal. Or gradually, with economic then social integration. But the youngest generation is fighting against this hopelessness.
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Sep 30, 2014 03:38
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Fuschia tude posted:Huh, wasn't he from the generation that fought the civil war? Or is he actually younger than that? A vast majority of the population was already here before the split. Just that most people in positions of power come from families who came over during the civil war. I have met people that are vehemently pro-KMT, but I've never met anyone over here that is pro-China. And for the really old ones, alot of them grew up speaking Japanese and Taiwanese.
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Sep 30, 2014 04:17
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Good morning, today the areas is a bit sparse, but I think that's because most students just stay up until sun rise, wait for public transportation to open, go home have a shower and a nap, then come out again. Here's last night's imgr link. http://imgur.com/a/r7GvO It was actually relatively calm except for a few false alarms.  This is near the Cheung Kong building, where a few police buses are parked here as a staging area. Everyone's on shift, and sleeping in the bus in shifts.  People were yelling, MASKS ON WAKE UP! MASKS ON WAKE UP.  The edge of the protest area between Central and Admiralty. If this road gets blocked then cars from the mid levels and peak would have to drive around the other side of the peak to come to the city.  Fewer people at night and you can see folks wandering to and fro.  Barriers are constantly moved and shifted by the protesters.  Front of Bank Of China building: CELEBRATE NATIONAL DAY! (Fireworks cancelled)  Small burst of rally by some politicans with a mega phone. Down CY down CY people chanting.  Admiralty still blocked  Facing the  Everyone is really tired. Some slept on the streets 2 days straight.  Food station at admiralty aid center. He's there for recent update and safety announcements  Everyone is reporting something  This barrier is hard to climb over so people made a makeshift ladder.  2am Admiralty.  Entrance to the government offices. Skeleton crew of dad cops, protesters more familiar with police tactics know there's more dudes inside resting and doing shifts. He's not even armed with a police baton.  Some inspectors watching the crowd by the bridge connecting admiralty to the government headquarters. It was cordoned off as press or officials only day 1. But now everyone can pass by. Of course, there's an aid station there! These cops are one of the fewer non Chinese still in the force. I wonder if they gave up their British nationality and switched Chinese citizenship?  More sit in pictures Photo dump done, checked the recent news. Yeah I'm going to bring a few garbage bags and do garbage cleaning duty.
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Sep 30, 2014 04:26
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Are you privy to any of the planning for how people could react to the various methods of trying to deal with the protest? I mean, what kind of planning is going on when they have these meetings of citizens? Is there a contingency for like, if they ignore us we do X, if they try to push us out we do Y. It seems to me like the biggest threat at the moment is that the police just leave everyone alone and things just run out of steam. I imagine people must be talking about this stuff, but there's no real strategy talk on the news...
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Sep 30, 2014 04:31
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Don't HKers who were there pre-handover have the option of keeping British passports?
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Sep 30, 2014 04:32
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Tom Smykowski posted:The PLA (and all police forces, even chengguan I think) is trained in different kinds of crowd management. Things like choralling and diverting are a big part of it. Their extent of force probably depends on which of the military district they come from. The military district that has southwest including Tibet is known for being really rough. The PLA isn't going to get involved. Hell, the PLA doesn't even get involved in suppressing protests on the Mainland since 1989. The People's Armed Police does that.
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Sep 30, 2014 04:38
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Ardennes posted:Yeah, this protest or at least part of it is still being called "Occupy Central with Love and Peace." Everyone forgot about it in the US, but thats the US. OWS lasted....what, 2 month? I'll be very surprised if this is allowed to last that long.
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Sep 30, 2014 04:41
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fspades posted:If this is a Chinese protest it's just one of the many other protests that went under western media's radar in the recent years. Believe it or not, not every protest is suppressed, Tienanmen style. Some of them even manage to gain some concessions. This is getting more attention because: The ironic thing s of course it's harder for the Chinese government to give concessions even if they want to precisely because it's got so much attention. A big protests like this working in gaining concessions might give people on the mainland wrong ideas about what they might be able to do in the future.
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Sep 30, 2014 04:45
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Gail Wynand posted:Don't HKers who were there pre-handover have the option of keeping British passports? No, they were never given the option. EDIT: I should also add that some people of non-Chinese ancestry were given the option but those of Chinese ancestry have been purposely excluded from all UK legislation related to former colonial subjects and citizenship. RocknRollaAyatollah fucked around with this message at 04:51 on Sep 30, 2014 |
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Sep 30, 2014 04:45
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GoutPatrol posted:And for the really old ones, alot of them grew up speaking Japanese and Taiwanese. There's a dude who sells grilled corn in the night market by me who only speaks Japanese. He's ancient, like 80-100 years old. Anyways, here's some pics. Apologies if the translations are inaccurate.  Left: Struggle Text: Having a say, democracy, Hong Kong's future.    "Hong Kong's development is sinking"  "689 step down, let the people decide" No idea who 689 is, but probably a person's name in this context. Best guess is the Chief Executive, but could be anyone.  Self  This one is the most interesting to me:  "The Sunflower Movement stands in Hong Kong" The Sunflower Movement is the name of the Taiwanese student protest group that successfully occupied the Legislative building in Taipei earlier this year. If you're looking to understand the HK movement by comparing it to any other protest, forget Arab Spring, Ferguson, OWS and that. Look at the Sunflower Movement. The parallels are striking, and this is proof of direct uh… cross-pollinization is the only word that comes to mind. A few more pics here - http://imgur.com/a/UB5XM/all
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Sep 30, 2014 04:54
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Thatcher agreed not to allow HKers British citizenship mainly because (y'know, being a Tory) she didn't want a sizeable influx of Chinese immigrants iirc. E: ^^ 689 is cy leung
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Sep 30, 2014 05:00
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Typo posted:OWS lasted....what, 2 month? Hong Kong had a previous Occupy Central during OWS as well. You had protesters and social workers setting up tents and talks and staying underneath the HSBC building. They were there for a freaking year before the government ordered them to clear out. Technically they were on public property. But this movement itself, Occupy (feels like) anywhere but Central is not underneath a bank building and being a minor inconvenience. Major road arteries all over the city are blocked. As for running out of steam? Yeah it's tiring and I did chat with a few people here and there, whether they are in aid stations or other participators. The general consensus is that we got to be here in the long haul. Conserve our energy, sit in and keep on blocking the main roadways. Just be peaceful, raise your hands if you see police, continue sitting in. Personally I'm glad to see the lack of police. I think that the police is done with gassing people and rather pass the blame to the Chief Executive. They rather let the movement run out of steam than cause another big mess. Cops don't need to be taking the flak from the government. In the mean time, it's a constant slap in the government's face when all the major roadways are being empty. And turning National Day to Occupy Day. What amazes me about this movement is not the large amount of flowery speech or what not. But that it's the students and the people who are not active in the usual political scene starting this. And everyone knows what's going on when we look at each other. Oh and someone is staging a wedding tomorrow during National day in Occupy Central. I hope this is the only thing similar to 89.
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Sep 30, 2014 05:00
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Are they denying Mainlanders entry into Hong Kong? Do you think they will let the normal holiday influx of Mainlanders come in with the protests going on?
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Sep 30, 2014 05:14
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689 is CY Leung - it's the number of votes he got when he was elected. My view on how this plays out: Protests will probably peak at the Oct 1 public holiday on Wednesday, then naturally dissipate, point made. Beijing's mouthpieces in HK will spread the message that mainland will intervene if HK cops don't "get things under control". I've already heard those lines. Protesters stare that threat down, continue protesting until Wednesday night. Beijing mouthpieces then claim the lack of PLA intervention showed how benevolent Beijing is and that protestors showed good sense by dissipating, let's all now just accept the norm set by Beijing. Beijing pushes CY Leung out of office the same way they offed Tung Chee Wah after the Article 23 debacle, present that as a "concession". CY was never their first choice, just a guy sensible enough to keep his illegal structures secret until after he got elected. No real changes on universal suffrage. I could be completely surprised. Like I have been as HK students have smashed my conceited gweilo preconceptions that they are largely spoon fed conservatives. I left HK in January this year after a decade there. I'm wishing I was back there now for this.
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Sep 30, 2014 05:45
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One of the interesting things about Oct 1 is that Beijing normally sends someone relatively important down to give a speech to Hong Kong. This year, where will he give the speech without it being clear that the power of protest has displaced the symbol of power from Beijing? Hopefully that won't push Beijing into nasty face saving stuff. Apologies if this has been posted already - lovely drone cam footage: http://mashable.com/2014/09/29/drone-hong-kong-protest
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Sep 30, 2014 05:47
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Pyramid Scheme posted:689 is CY Leung - it's the number of votes he got when he was elected. Alternarively, Beijing could sack the 689 and call for 'universal suffrage' --assumine one is able to pay the 'poll fees' and can demonstrate 'property ownership'
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Sep 30, 2014 05:47
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My Imaginary GF posted:Alternarively, Beijing could sack the 689 and call for 'universal suffrage' --assumine one is able to pay the 'poll fees' and can demonstrate 'property ownership' HK already has a tycoonocracy. All this focus on Occupy Central has diverted attention from the Rafael Hui trial. Maybe... maybe... this is all Beijing's plot so people don't pay attention to Rafael's damaging confessions...
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Sep 30, 2014 05:55
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Pyramid Scheme posted:One of the interesting things about Oct 1 is that Beijing normally sends someone relatively important down to give a speech to Hong Kong. Wan Chai isn't being occupied. Don't they always give that speech at Golden Bauhina Square, which is totally under control?
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Sep 30, 2014 06:02
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Good point. That said, I think the CCP would be very allergic to even a small risk of disruption.
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Sep 30, 2014 06:04
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Horatius Bonar posted:Anyways, here's some pics. Apologies if the translations are inaccurate. Thanks for the images. The translation is okay, but not exactly correct. Here is my attempt at translation, though I may be wrong due to the difference between Cantonese and Mandarin Left, the two character from top to down:Fight/obtain, struggle is partly correct, but doesn't have the nuance of obtaining through effort/force. Right: First Line: Real Election. Second Line: Democratic Government. Third Line: Hong Kong's Future. Sign is basically saying to fight for a real election, a democratic government and Hong Kong's Future. Protect Hong Kong, reject further sinking into further (degradation) The top banner reads: Flowers are blossoming everywhere/throughout the land, Occupy Hong Kong The bottom banner reads: (We would) rather die standing than live kneeling.
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Sep 30, 2014 06:05
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sunburnedcrow posted:Thanks for the images. The translation is okay, but not exactly correct. Here is my attempt at translation, though I may be wrong due to the difference between Cantonese and Mandarin Thanks! I knew my translations were not great, but I didn't expect any one else to put in the effort to make sense of them. I really appreciate it.
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Sep 30, 2014 06:29
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RocknRollaAyatollah posted:Are they denying Mainlanders entry into Hong Kong? Do you think they will let the normal holiday influx of Mainlanders come in with the protests going on? Don't think so. I know some mainlanders that went to Hong Kong yesterday afternoon.
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Sep 30, 2014 06:37
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MJ12 posted:Like, the Chinese can make a case for how the disputed territories are THEIRS and even if people laugh at their case it is a case and they can argue it and there's some evidence for it. The Chinese have pretty much no case for their claims on the Scarborough Shoal given that their historical maps completely misidentified and confused the identity of these rocks with others in the Paracel/Spratly Islands group. Many of their claims in the South China Sea are more or less bogus, but they insist on them for economic security reasons. I am impressed that they spread enough misinformation to make people actually think there is a debate going on.
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Sep 30, 2014 06:42
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China and their maps and their histories... 5,000* years of face-saving re-writing. (* arbitrary number of dubious origin) I like the (very possibly apocryphal) story that a new Emperor came to the throne, checked the palace histories and they told him China had defeated the Mongols, when the truth was the other way around. He then sent a caravan to Tamerlane asking where was the annual tribute due to him. Tamerlane got pissed off and aimed the Golden Horde at China, only to die along the way.
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Sep 30, 2014 06:57
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Mainland traffic as usual. And the tourists normally don't give a poo poo or might gawk here and there. Even June 4 vigil wasn't disrupted. You can still buy iPhone 6 plus gold 128gb for 18000 hkd. That's around 2000 USD. I just did some garbage sweeping. Got yelled by a middle aged lady calling us assholes Welp. Going to take a break and walk around other areas taking some pictures
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Sep 30, 2014 07:07
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caberham posted:Mainland traffic as usual. And the tourists normally don't give a poo poo or might gawk here and there. Even June 4 vigil wasn't disrupted. You can still buy iPhone 6 plus gold 128gb for 18000 hkd. That's around 2000 USD. wtf who the gently caress pays $2000 for an iphone
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Sep 30, 2014 08:18
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Typo posted:wtf who the gently caress pays $2000 for an iphone Chinese people wanting to show off how much money they have?
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Sep 30, 2014 08:27
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Snipee posted:The Chinese have pretty much no case for their claims on the Scarborough Shoal given that their historical maps completely misidentified and confused the identity of these rocks with others in the Paracel/Spratly Islands group. Many of their claims in the South China Sea are more or less bogus, but they insist on them for economic security reasons. I am impressed that they spread enough misinformation to make people actually think there is a debate going on. I was mostly talking about the Senkakus/Diaoyus which had some fairly respected Japanese authorities on Sino-Japan relations and a couple of other intellectuals just outright saying that Japan was wrong, and before the whole affair brewed up you had a few Japanese schools calling for the government to recognize there was a dispute. IIRC the Chinese also have a letter from Vietnam's former prime minister that they recognized the authority of China over some of the Paracels although that gets disputed and Vietnam claims it's out of context (but if the letter exists, and the context is even debatable, that would make the Chinese claim at least valid enough that it'd be a serious question). I was also going to mention the whole Freedomland hilarity but apparently the Philippines gave up that claim entirely for an EEZ-based one. But I didn't want to start another debate about Chinese maritime borders. My point was that a lot of Chinese claims are dubious, but they can push them because they're economically powerful enough and influential enough, and the nations they're pushing them on are small enough, and the benefits to basically ignoring said nations and doing their own thing large enough, that they can get away with it, versus a hypothetical violent suppression of rights in Hong Kong which would get them exactly poo poo for a massive, massive cost. They're different situations and analogizing Beijing's "give-no-fucks" policy about Philippine/Vietnamese complaints to what they'd do in Hong Kong is very risky because the cost-benefit is entirely different. My only concern is that there's the organizational process model for decisionmaking, which means that any protocols Beijing may have to deal with this were probably built way back when, may be entirely out of date, and may end up being counterproductive to everyone involved. (Essence of Decision is a good book for anyone who wants to understand how nations with governments full of smart people can keep making such apparently boneheaded decisions)
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Sep 30, 2014 08:40
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Student poster posted:Tear gas causes tears, government makes us weep
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Sep 30, 2014 09:19
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Gail Wynand posted:Don't HKers who were there pre-handover have the option of keeping British passports? Short answer: no Longer answer: BN(O)
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Sep 30, 2014 09:20
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fart simpson posted:Don't think so. I know some mainlanders that went to Hong Kong yesterday afternoon. There's Mainlanders being quoted in the media saying protesters are getting in their way of their shopping.
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Sep 30, 2014 09:24
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IntricoInutile posted:There's Mainlanders being quoted in the media saying protesters are getting in their way of their shopping. 
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Sep 30, 2014 09:40
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I guess they don't know that the city is bigger than three districts I already avoid because they're overly crowded even when they're not occupied.
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Sep 30, 2014 10:07
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