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Randarkman posted:We've been telling ourselves variations of "X group (mostly the Kurds) is going to kick ISIS's rear end" for quite a while now, and it hasn't really come true has it? ISIS might not be able to use tanks and such in Kobane, but the sad truth is probably that they are going to drive YPG out of Kobane way easier than we hoped. They'll take the city, don't get me wrong. But it's not going to be a Mosul by any means.
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Oct 2, 2014 20:27
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Maybe France is going to pull a Misrata again? One can only hope.
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Oct 2, 2014 20:31
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What worries me more than territorial losses is what we're hearing about the amount of casualties the peshmerga are suffering, all across the front. For all their prowess, they don't have nearly the doctrinal and material advantages that Western militaries have, and seem to be losing men at more third-world-standard rates. There aren't so many of them that they can keep that up forever without losing effectiveness. I'm concerned that ISIS will just wear them down if this goes on for a year or so without major outside intervention or the ISF getting their act together along the southern front. PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 20:35 on Oct 2, 2014 |
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Oct 2, 2014 20:32
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Volkerball posted:The FSA and Ahrar pushed ISIS almost out of Syria a year or so ago. But they're bleeding fighters and ISIS is only getting stronger. When it comes to the military aspect of it, ISIS had a lot of tanks and modern equipment they jacked from the ISF, which helped them keep pushing the Kurds back. But in Kobane, it's urban, and all that counts for jack poo poo. So the actual street fighting in the coming days will be more telling. The YPG has been preparing for this fight for a while. ISIS will take heavy losses if they push all the way to the Turkish border. How likely would the outcome involve ISIS being strategically weakened by a protracted attempt to take Kobane? Would they retreat to cut losses if things got too bogged down, or would they bleed themselves dry?
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Oct 2, 2014 20:35
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Volkerball posted:They'll take the city, don't get me wrong. But it's not going to be a Mosul by any means. Mosul was abandoned pretty much without a fight by the Iraqi army in the face of some hundred advancing ISIS fighters, wasn't it? Yeah, it's not going to be like that. Wonder how the Turks would potentially do against ISIS, they don't really come out all that well versus Kurdish fighters, I mean you hear about Turkish soldiers getting ambushed and killed by the tens, aside from bombing and being ambushed by the Kurds the Turkish army doesn't really have that much combat experience, and as far as I understand alot of their equipment, especially in the east is rather old US equipment, like Patton tanks and crap. Though I assume that with artillery and air support and possibly lots and lots of Turkish soldiers, they'd probably be enough, especially as ISIS seems to have gotten a taste for more convetional warfare. Randarkman fucked around with this message at 20:47 on Oct 2, 2014 |
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Oct 2, 2014 20:45
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FAUXTON posted:How likely would the outcome involve ISIS being strategically weakened by a protracted attempt to take Kobane? Would they retreat to cut losses if things got too bogged down, or would they bleed themselves dry? Of course it's going to weaken them, the question is how much. Your guess is as good as mine. But I will say that reports from Raqqa and such in the leadup to the push to Kobane make me question how much ISIS could really reinforce if things go stagnant. Lot of guys are involved in this. And ISIS has never hesitated to retreat when things were looking down, but I can't really recall a situation when things were looking down since Mosul. Since then, they've marched straight through Tabqa, Division 17, etc. So who knows just how lovely they're willing to let the situation get before cutting bait as of right now. Their identity has changed a lot since when they used to have suicide bombers act like their ninja smoke while they ran away at the first hint of trouble.
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Oct 2, 2014 20:46
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Volkerball posted:Of course it's going to weaken them, the question is how much. Your guess is as good as mine. But I will say that reports from Raqqa and such in the leadup to the push to Kobane make me question how much ISIS could really reinforce if things go stagnant. Lot of guys are involved in this. And ISIS has never hesitated to retreat when things were looking down, but I can't really recall a situation when things were looking down since Mosul. Since then, they've marched straight through Tabqa, Division 17, etc. So who knows just how lovely they're willing to let the situation get before cutting bait as of right now. Their identity has changed a lot since when they used to have suicide bombers act like their ninja smoke while they ran away at the first hint of trouble. Alternatively I wonder if there's a broader plan (by US and their regional collaborators) to make Kobane ISIS' funeral pyre. Would the Kurds accept that kind of tradeoff? ...  would Turkey be so evil as to convince the US of such a plan's viability just to see Kobane bombed out?
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Oct 2, 2014 20:52
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Why aren't we bombing the gently caress out of these guys if they are advancing over open ground? These are easy pickings.
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Oct 2, 2014 21:29
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Intel5 posted:Why aren't we bombing the gently caress out of these guys if they are advancing over open ground? These are easy pickings. I think we missed that chance now that they are in the city. I hear that they've called up the A10s - is there a chance that without helicopters and A10s there just aren't good options against individuals on the ground? Hopefully it is more that than something more sinister.
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Oct 2, 2014 21:34
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:I think we missed that chance now that they are in the city. I hear that they've called up the A10s - is there a chance that without helicopters and A10s there just aren't good options against individuals on the ground? Hopefully it is more that than something more sinister. Then we had plenty of time beforehand and simply didn't?
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Oct 2, 2014 21:38
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The way they've knocked down SAA Migs, I'm pretty sure a clear bead on an A-10 will spell public relations disaster for the operation.
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Oct 2, 2014 21:38
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 You guys remember the car bomb at the school in Homs yesterday that looked no different than any of the thousands of barrel bombs that the regime has dropped on neighborhoods? Well typical supporters of the regime have been protesting over it. They want the governor of Homs to step down, things like that. Now people are shocked because regime media isn't reporting it, even though they filmed the protests.  Who would have thought.
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Oct 2, 2014 21:44
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towelieban posted:The way they've knocked down SAA Migs, I'm pretty sure a clear bead on an A-10 will spell public relations disaster for the operation. 15k feet or above, and you're A-OK  SOURCE: video games
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Oct 2, 2014 22:03
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:I think we missed that chance now that they are in the city. I hear that they've called up the A10s - is there a chance that without helicopters and A10s there just aren't good options against individuals on the ground? Hopefully it is more that than something more sinister. That A-10 rotation appears to be a routine deployment to Afghanistan, with a local rep saying please give my district A-10 money, because ISIS.
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Oct 2, 2014 22:07
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Supposedly there was a lot of bead weather around Kobane today which supposedly restricted flights in the area.
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Oct 2, 2014 22:11
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Volkerball posted:
Yep, and here's a video of their anger. https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=706452132775829&set=vb.102600453161003&type=2&theater Worth noting that ISIS has withdrawn from one assault they were losing -- the Deir Ezzor airport. They then focused their attention to Kobane, though.
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Oct 2, 2014 22:13
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MothraAttack posted:Yep, and here's a video of their anger. Yeah, I forgot about that one. Regime still pulled out guys like Zahreddine just in case. Wouldn't want them dying with the meatshields.
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Oct 2, 2014 22:18
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Oct 2, 2014 22:30
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Volkerball posted:
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Oct 2, 2014 23:41
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Gmaz posted:So you wouldn't expect people to be angry after a school with their children was bombed? Literally everyone who lives in Homs is a typical regime supporter? The funny part was them being surprised that the regime was smothering news of dissent, like this hasn't been a fundamental aspect of how the regime did business even before the revolution. Of course I'd expect them to be angry. I'd be angry if I had to live in an hour in the life of someone in Jobar. But it's certainly hypocritical, because you don't hear a peep out of them when a barrel bomb lands on a bakery and kills a bunch of kids waiting in line to try and get some food. And yeah, the rebel held portion of Homs was evacuated under UN supervision last year, after a long siege when a bunch of people starved to death, and was retaken by the government. And the bombings were in an Alawite neighborhood to boot. These protests are entirely from regime supporters. I don't mean it as in "your typical regime supporter  ." Just giving context to these peoples history. If they were typically against Assad, it wouldn't really be news that they were protesting against him.Reports going around that everyone who wants to leave Kobane has managed to get out.  Not a lot of takers.
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Oct 2, 2014 23:58
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Looks like the battle for Benghazi is continuing to heat up, 40 troops backed by Haftar are dead in a multiple suicide bombing in a fight for an airbase within the city itself. http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/10/libyan-soldiers-killed-benghazi-violence-201410211526230704.html
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Oct 3, 2014 00:13
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Volkerball posted:
Something about battle grannies always makes me smile, even if the whole situation is a giant loving tragedy.
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Oct 3, 2014 01:21
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I don't think that anyone was ever going to save kobane. The US did some tepid, ineffectual airstrikes. The one thing going for them is that actual city fighting could soak up an infinity number of troops and munitions.
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Oct 3, 2014 02:34
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Cat Mattress posted:He is German. In the German Language, you capitalize all of the Nouns. There is no Exception to that Rule. Yea, but he's not only capitalising nouns. In his last post, there were adjectives, articles and verbs capitalised too. Looks a bit like someone faking being German, honestly. toe knee hand fucked around with this message at 03:34 on Oct 3, 2014 |
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Oct 3, 2014 03:30
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You see, those children that died in that carbomb are actual REAL Syrians (hint: Alawites), not all those FAKE Syrians that have been getting massacred by the hundreds of thousands by the government.
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Oct 3, 2014 04:26
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Zaina Erhaim, one of the old activists in Aleppo, was interviewed by NPR about what she thought of the coalition strikes, and what she was hearing other people saying about them. It's pretty interesting.quote:CORNISH: At this point, what sense do you have of how members of the Free Syrian Army are actually feeling about the airstrikes and how they're feeling about it contributing to their own effort? http://www.npr.org/2014/09/29/35240...m_medium=social She also wrote an op-ed about it that also really gives you a feel for how people are responding to this operation. http://zaina-erhaim.com/?p=1568
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Oct 3, 2014 04:34
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Volkerball posted:Zaina Erhaim, one of the old activists in Aleppo, was interviewed by NPR about what she thought of the coalition strikes, and what she was hearing other people saying about them. It's pretty interesting. This really does make me want to know, why they thought it would be otherwise. Who made them thought so?
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Oct 3, 2014 05:44
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Randarkman posted:Mosul was abandoned pretty much without a fight by the Iraqi army in the face of some hundred advancing ISIS fighters, wasn't it? Yeah, it's not going to be like that. What Turkish military did east of euphrates was anyones guess, and certainly wasnt under civilian control until 2011 or so. Generals basically remanned bunch of old decrepit outposts (ringed by higher hills on each side in one instance) with conscripts in 2006 to guarantee a steady stream of casualties. People used to blame the elected government for being weak for those outpost ambushes. Then videos from a Turkish surveillance drone came to light and proved that, yeah, generals saw a certain outpost ambush coming and did nothing for the next 12 hours. Scandals like that allowed Erdogan to break the political power of turkish military and good riddance. PKK had a "we're at the maoist last phase, basically a conventional army now, we are going to control territory!" thing going on in 2012 but it failed hard enough that Apo (their jailed leader) reasserted control over hawk types and the resolution process was born in march 2013. That was before we almost got taken over by an islamist cult, but that is a post for another time. Interesting times, interesting times.
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Oct 3, 2014 09:46
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Zengi posted:What Turkish military did east of euphrates was anyones guess, and certainly wasnt under civilian control until 2011 or so. Generals basically remanned bunch of old decrepit outposts (ringed by higher hills on each side in one instance) with conscripts in 2006 to guarantee a steady stream of casualties. People used to blame the elected government for being weak for those outpost ambushes. Then videos from a Turkish surveillance drone came to light and proved that, yeah, generals saw a certain outpost ambush coming and did nothing for the next 12 hours. Scandals like that allowed Erdogan to break the political power of turkish military and good riddance. PKK had a "we're at the maoist last phase, basically a conventional army now, we are going to control territory!" thing going on in 2012 but it failed hard enough that Apo (their jailed leader) reasserted control over hawk types and the resolution process was born in march 2013. That was before we almost got taken over by an islamist cult, but that is a post for another time. Interesting times, interesting times. I am curious to see how the Hawks (or should I say Falcons) will react if Apo's response to Turkish military intervention falls short of their expectations. They have been a bit quiet of late but considering their connections to Syria (Erdal etc.) anything resembling an occupation to establish the much discussed buffer zone might set them off - not that they will officially split or anything, I'm just worried they might revive the urban bombing campaign.
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Oct 3, 2014 10:11
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kustomkarkommando posted:I am curious to see how the Hawks (or should I say Falcons) will react if Apo's response to Turkish military intervention falls short of their expectations. They have been a bit quiet of late but considering their connections to Syria (Erdal etc.) anything resembling an occupation to establish the much discussed buffer zone might set them off - not that they will officially split or anything, I'm just worried they might revive the urban bombing campaign. Yeah they are making noises about turning Turkey into hell over twitter. Kurdish movement is really off-balance now in Turkey. They keep circulating stupid poo poo about Turkey handing over NATO gear and tanks to Daesh. They stoned soldiers checking Kobani refugees at the border gates. I dont know how any of that is helping. Hopefully their bout of irrationality will pass and cooler heads will prevail.
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Oct 3, 2014 16:29
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Zengi posted:Yeah they are making noises about turning Turkey into hell over twitter. Kurdish movement is really off-balance now in Turkey. They keep circulating stupid poo poo about Turkey handing over NATO gear and tanks to Daesh. They stoned soldiers checking Kobani refugees at the border gates. I dont know how any of that is helping. Hopefully their bout of irrationality will pass and cooler heads will prevail. To be fair, Turkey has entire armies sitting and watching Kobani under siege. It plays right into the Kurdish suspicions that many in the Turkish government is secretly cheering for Daesh.
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Oct 3, 2014 17:30
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Any news from Kobane?
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Oct 3, 2014 18:02
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Yea, it's about to get hosed. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pxwQMQVXVk Seige on Ayn Al-Arab towelieban fucked around with this message at 18:13 on Oct 3, 2014 |
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Oct 3, 2014 18:06
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toe knee hand posted:Yea, but he's not only capitalising nouns. In his last post, there were adjectives, articles and verbs capitalised too. Looks a bit like someone faking being German, honestly. looks a bit like a schizophrenic
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Oct 3, 2014 18:42
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towelieban posted:Yea, it's about to get hosed. Reports of coalition airstrikes on the eastern front of he town. Maybe too little, too late. Meanwhile, the PKK launched an attack inside Turkey today, possibly as a threat urging Turkish intervention in Kobane, according to analysts.
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Oct 3, 2014 19:30
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The more I think about Kobane the less I understand the ISIS strategy. My understanding is that it is of importance logistically and I am sure it would be a boon to recruiting to take a large city despite air strikes. But holding a large city empty of inhabitants with the Turkish army and irregular Kurdish groups just across the border possibly staging raids, etc. seems like it would be difficult even if they don't lose large numbers in taking it in the first place. As long as the Kurdish groups have a safe haven in Turkey that ISIS doesn't feel like it can attack without triggering entry of the Turks into the fight I don't see how they can hold the ground. Maybe that's another reasons no one is helping Kobane but it is still sad to see.
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Oct 3, 2014 19:31
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Invicta{HOG}, M.D. posted:The more I think about Kobane the less I understand the ISIS strategy. My understanding is that it is of importance logistically and I am sure it would be a boon to recruiting to take a large city despite air strikes. But holding a large city empty of inhabitants with the Turkish army and irregular Kurdish groups just across the border possibly staging raids, etc. seems like it would be difficult even if they don't lose large numbers in taking it in the first place. As long as the Kurdish groups have a safe haven in Turkey that ISIS doesn't feel like it can attack without triggering entry of the Turks into the fight I don't see how they can hold the ground. Ultimately, I don't think they really plan to hold the city as a functional entity but more eliminate it as base of operations for the YPG and if need be a urban battleground. The YPG obviously will still attack across the border but its operations in that portion of Syria is going to be obviously more limited than before, and ISIS will likely use that strategically to either push Westwards north of Aleppo where they have already an ongoing offensive or to the East. In addition, it is very useful propaganda wise, despite the entry of the West in the conflict and airstrikes, ISIS is still able to quickly take significant portions of territory in a short amount of time. It does help the image of "invulnerability" they are trying to cultivate.
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Oct 3, 2014 19:38
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PleasingFungus posted:looks a bit like a schizophrenic It increasingly seems like McDowell has critically examined one oppressive discourse too many and had some kind of D&D induced stroke.
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Oct 3, 2014 19:39
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Sounds like there were four airstrikes (?Aussies) in Kobane.
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Oct 3, 2014 19:51
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Jonad posted:It increasingly seems like McDowell has critically examined one oppressive discourse too many and had some kind of D&D induced stroke. I've been focusing on my own life and American issues at this point, rather than drowning in anxiety about the geopolitical furies that have been unleashed in Eurasia. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dAMURPVDxk&t=159s Stay safe all. Consider the invisibility of ideology and so on and so on.
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Oct 3, 2014 19:54
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