Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > Canada Housing/Debt: Trust me, I'm a landlord.

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Heavy neutrino posted:

Don't worry; Vancouver is only the second most unaffordable housing market in the entire world after Hong-Kong. There's no bubble and according to CBC business, today might be the day to buy a home!!!!

I just read that article. I'm stupider for having done so.

The CBC's existence is generally presumed to be a good thing, and aside from their poo poo TV drama/comedy content that nobody watches I would've agreed, but if this passes their editorial standards, they might as well wrap the whole thing up.

# ? Jan 20, 2015 23:40

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# ? May 12, 2024 21:30

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

It's somewhat easy to tell that something odd is going on with commercial real estate in Halifax, I think. Our "main street" downtown is starting to become just as bad as Fredericton or Moncton. Lots and buildings have been sitting empty for a while now. They own the properties but no one's actually willing to pay for them because, due to our horrific urban design, no one can actually get to businesses downtown and not that many people actually live nearby.

But don't worry, the new convention centre will save everyone! By taking up the entire heart of the downtown, closing down one of the few pedestrian friendly areas in the city, and blowing 150 million dollars from our road paving fund (and a healthy dose of federal government money)!

(To be fair though, everyone who's been in Nova Scotia as an adult knows that "infrastructure fund" = political slush money)

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:28

Kafka Esq.: Jan 1, 2005; "If you ever even think about calling me anything but 'The Crab' I will go so fucking crab on your ass you won't even see what crab'd your crab" -The Crab(TM)

Lexicon posted:

I just read that article. I'm stupider for having done so.

The CBC's existence is generally presumed to be a good thing, and aside from their poo poo TV drama/comedy content that nobody watches I would've agreed, but if this passes their editorial standards, they might as well wrap the whole thing up.

Would you say we need to...

Burn

It

All

Down?

:getin:

we need a CI anarchy smiley

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:35

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Haha I can't believe Halifax is getting a convention centre. Yeah I really want to go to loving Halifax -no one ever

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:35

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Cultural Imperial posted:

Haha I can't believe Halifax is getting a convention centre. Yeah I really want to go to loving Halifax -no one ever

It has lovely scenery and weather.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:36

cowofwar: Jul 30, 2002; by Athanatos

Baronjutter posted:

We make less than half what you do, should we move into a bachelor to satisfy your sage 10-15% rule? Your rule seems less "don't over pay on rent" and more "be rich". Not that that's terrible advise because there's tons of rich people who spend 50+ percent on housing and have zero savings and massive debt and need HELP god it's hard being rich.

But seriously, unless you're a very high earner or willing to live in a slum no normal working class family can reasonably manage much below 1/3 on housing. We were almost doing 15% when we lived in my parents little 400sqft basement suite, the only reason we have a TFSA really. But it's absolutely miserable living in a cramped dingy basement suite.

Something to keep in mind is that the middle class and the single family home are very much historical anomalies restricted to the first world and largely brought about by the economic consequences of the great war and second world war. Everyone else in the world has always either been labor or capital, and the latter has always lived in multi-generation homes. The middle-class is basically dead so something has to go - whether it's home ownership, daycare costs, single family housing, multiple (or any) cars, etc.. The only thing keeping the appearances going is easy credit so when we get a credit squeeze we'll see a lot of people's middle class lifestyles evaporate.

We can keep going with bubble/busts at increasing frequency in order to achieve revenues and wealth transfer for the elites, or we can regulate and enjoy twenty years of deflation, or we can have another war leading to another golden era at the cost of a decade of poo poo and a whole lot of dead people bombed back in to third world conditions for the benefit of our industry.

cowofwar fucked around with this message at 00:43 on Jan 21, 2015

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:39

SpannerX: Apr 26, 2010; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.; Fun Shoe

etalian posted:

It has lovely scenery and weather.

Well, it has weather, that's for sure. Though the scenery is lovely.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:39

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

Cultural Imperial posted:

Haha I can't believe Halifax is getting a convention centre. Yeah I really want to go to loving Halifax -no one ever

I could have sworn they had one already.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/city-of-vancouver-has-no-claim-to-arbutus-rail-corridor-judge-rules/article22541210/

quote:

The chief justice of the B.C. Supreme Court has dismissed the City of Vancouver�s application for an injunction to halt Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd.�s clearing of garden plots along the Arbutus corridor, allowing CP to forge ahead with plans to store railcars on the abandoned line.

CP bulldozed some sheds and smashed through gardens for a couple of weeks last August before it temporarily halted activity on the now-abandoned line.

�The City did not and cannot claim any property interest in the Arbutus corridor, nor can the City assert such rights on behalf of others,� Chief Justice Christopher Hinkson wrote in his judgment released Tuesday.

CP believes the 11-kilometre-long Arbutus corridor�s potential value as a real estate development could be $400-million. The company has offered to sell for $100-million, but the City of Vancouver has balked, countering that a more reasonable value is $20-million.

Condo dwellers who use community gardens, which weave through some of the most expensive property in Canada, say their plots are important.

The judge, however, sided with Calgary-based CP. �The gardeners, pedestrians, cyclists and motor vehicle operators who have been using the corridor have no right to such use,� he said.

While the last train operated in 2001, CP wants to return the right-of-way to freight operating standards and use the tracks again, though this time for storing railcars. The Arbutus corridor is currently zoned for transportation.

Chief Justice Hinkson said CP �will suffer irreparable harm if it is unable to even begin preparations for the resumption of rail use� along the urban stretch of land.

Good. I am glad to see that sanity prevailed.

I'd love to see how these idiots who planted their gardens would feel about their empty income property being squatted in the same way.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:44

SpannerX: Apr 26, 2010; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.; Fun Shoe

OSI bean dip posted:

I could have sworn they had one already.

There is, right next door to the new one being built.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 00:46

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

LemonDrizzle posted:

And how does everyone feel about the Canadian housing market now that this thread is coming up on its two-year anniversary?

I'll start.

Vancouver was always bananas, but I started noticing that the whole country was getting out of whack by 2010 or so. I was sure it was only a matter of time - less than a couple of years - before the whole edifice would come crashing down. When the early 2013 slowdown hit, I was sure that was it. And then... nothing. 2013 finished strong and 2014 continued the silliness even more spectacularly.

So it's been a pretty good lesson in the futility of timing predictions.

That said, even with the oil collapse, and the pessimism that may radiate outwards from Edmonton/Calgary - I seriously doubt that the government will ever permit a true housing crash. A more likely scenario would be the entire housing market icing over and becoming totally illiquid as most sellers won't drop their prices, and most buyers won't pay what's asked, or can't get financing. Even then, the government can always reverse the restrictions that were recently put back in place, increase amortizations, allow further RRSP robbing, juice the first-timers with ever-greater incentives, etc.

So going forward: I predict lots, lots more dysfunction and policy tinkering, and at worst an illiquid, price-static market, not a crash.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 01:24

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

etalian posted:

It has lovely scenery and weather.

IIRC, we're actually rainier than London.

OSI bean dip posted:

I could have sworn they had one already.

They did. It was built in the 80s. At the time people hated it saying it was a huge waste of taxpayer money but look how well it's turned out! It's only 2/3 empty now that Halifax city government leases space in the building and therefore our municipal taxes and fines are subsidizing it!

Our roads are absolute poo poo by the way. Even though that's mostly a political thing, I feel like we could get some use out of $150 million...

edit: It's actually not even the most ridiculous project in Nova Scotia right now, there's a rural council out in Cape Breton spending 9 million to subsidize an airstrip. Literal cargo cult capitalism.

Isentropy fucked around with this message at 02:35 on Jan 21, 2015

# ? Jan 21, 2015 02:27

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

Isentropy posted:

IIRC, we're actuall

They did. It was built in the 80s. At the time people hated it saying it was a huge waste of taxpayer money but look how well it's turned out! It's only 2/3 empty now that Halifax city government leases space in the building and therefore our municipal taxes and fines are subsidizing it!

Our roads are absolute poo poo by the way. Even though that's mostly a political thing, I feel like we could get some use out of $150 million...

Halifax strikes me as one of the weirdest places in Canada. Every time I have gone there I found myself liking the place but then wondered what the hell people did for work. A few shipyards, naval base, and an airport in the middle of nowhere does not make for a well economy.

What use is the Atlantic is to us minus a small amount of oil and a shitload of government subsidies?

# ? Jan 21, 2015 02:33

Gorau: Apr 28, 2008

OSI bean dip posted:

Halifax strikes me as one of the weirdest places in Canada. Every time I have gone there I found myself liking the place but then wondered what the hell people did for work. A few shipyards, naval base, and an airport in the middle of nowhere does not make for a well economy.

What use is the Atlantic is to us minus a small amount of oil and a shitload of government subsidies?

A place for vac truck drivers and rig hands to live without driving up housing prices in Alberta.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 02:36

Isentropy: Dec 12, 2010

OSI bean dip posted:

Halifax strikes me as one of the weirdest places in Canada. Every time I have gone there I found myself liking the place but then wondered what the hell people did for work. A few shipyards, naval base, and an airport in the middle of nowhere does not make for a well economy.

What use is the Atlantic is to us minus a small amount of oil and a shitload of government subsidies?

Then it's great that you haven't been to rural NS. The lucky parts are one-industry towns. The unlucky parts are straight out of the Rust Belt. Government grants crazy exemptions from environmental regulation and taxation to prevent whole towns from falling apart. Pictou got so bad recently that Paul Sobey himself was reduced to calling into CBC like an angry AM radio caller demanding the government enforce their own laws.

It's a great source of cheap labour and smug "Albertans" though.

The serious problem facing the Maritimes is demography. Few young people stay and have children. Of those, even fewer are able to find jobs out here (meaning that our investment in education is mostly going to other provinces). We basically only see people during the most expensive stages of their life, and the government doesn't really care about young voters at all. In the past year, they have planned to drop the tuition freeze and revoked $50 million in tax credits for new graduates. They know that anyone out here in that 25-34 bracket is either too hosed socioeconomically to vote or benefits from the status quo.

Isentropy fucked around with this message at 02:52 on Jan 21, 2015

# ? Jan 21, 2015 02:46

etalian: Mar 20, 2006

Isentropy posted:

edit: It's actually not even the most ridiculous project in Nova Scotia right now, there's a rural council out in Cape Breton spending 9 million to subsidize an airstrip. Literal cargo cult capitalism.

Next they will start building fake oil rig mockups

In related news Haliburton to lay-off 1000 employees, Baker Huges to lay-off 7000 employees
http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/21/us-baker-hughe-results-idUSKBN0KT13720150121

etalian fucked around with this message at 03:24 on Jan 21, 2015

# ? Jan 21, 2015 02:57

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Hahajahahahah

# ? Jan 21, 2015 03:55

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Lexicon posted:

I'll start.

Vancouver was always bananas, but I started noticing that the whole country was getting out of whack by 2010 or so. I was sure it was only a matter of time - less than a couple of years - before the whole edifice would come crashing down. When the early 2013 slowdown hit, I was sure that was it. And then... nothing. 2013 finished strong and 2014 continued the silliness even more spectacularly.

So it's been a pretty good lesson in the futility of timing predictions.

That said, even with the oil collapse, and the pessimism that may radiate outwards from Edmonton/Calgary - I seriously doubt that the government will ever permit a true housing crash. A more likely scenario would be the entire housing market icing over and becoming totally illiquid as most sellers won't drop their prices, and most buyers won't pay what's asked, or can't get financing. Even then, the government can always reverse the restrictions that were recently put back in place, increase amortizations, allow further RRSP robbing, juice the first-timers with ever-greater incentives, etc.

So going forward: I predict lots, lots more dysfunction and policy tinkering, and at worst an illiquid, price-static market, not a crash.

Has this ever happened before at any point in history Lexicon?

I sold my first house in 2005 after reading reading an article in the economist about how stupid the global real estate market was. I bought it for 330k with help from my parents in 2003 and I sold it for 400k. It's probably one of the worst financial decisions I made in my life, at the time. That same house recently sold for 800k.

On the other hand, if I'd kept that loving thing I'd never have left Canada and my income wouldn't have quadrupled.

I recently told a friend of mine that I expect to be living in a house on the west side a couple blocks from Kits beach and I'm not even trolling. Either market values are going to collapse to a point where I can afford to buy this house or my investment strategy (or really the strategy of my advisor) is going to help me make a killing when Canada's economy turns to absolute poo poo.

My wealth strategy literally depends on all Canadians suffering. gently caress y'all

# ? Jan 21, 2015 04:09

District Selectman: Jan 22, 2012; by Lowtax

Cultural Imperial posted:

Has this ever happened before at any point in history Lexicon?

I sold my first house in 2005 after reading reading an article in the economist about how stupid the global real estate market was. I bought it for 330k with help from my parents in 2003 and I sold it for 400k. It's probably one of the worst financial decisions I made in my life, at the time. That same house recently sold for 800k.

On the other hand, if I'd kept that loving thing I'd never have left Canada and my income wouldn't have quadrupled.

I recently told a friend of mine that I expect to be living in a house on the west side a couple blocks from Kits beach and I'm not even trolling. Either market values are going to collapse to a point where I can afford to buy this house or my investment strategy (or really the strategy of my advisor) is going to help me make a killing when Canada's economy turns to absolute poo poo.

My wealth strategy literally depends on all Canadians suffering. gently caress y'all

How are you shorting Canada's economy f you don't mind sharing?

# ? Jan 21, 2015 05:03

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

District Selectman posted:

How are you shorting Canada's economy f you don't mind sharing?

I'm not shorting anything.

Here's the best post I've ever read on a subject I barely understand, by Kalenn Istarion on why you shouldn't short anything if you don't know what you're doing: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3569987&pagenumber=22&perpage=40#post424850697

My strategy is to keep all my loving money out of Canada. And that includes all my disposable income. gently caress the canadian economy and gently caress the canadian business owner.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 05:14

ductonius: Apr 9, 2007; I heard there's a cream for that...

Cultural Imperial posted:

Starbucks cup in alley this morning. Tire tread on burst travel lid. Vancouver is afraid of me. I have seen it's true face. The streets are extended gutters and the gutters are full of soy milk and when the drains finally congeel over all the vermin will drown. The accumulated filth of all their yoga and organic food will foam up about their waists and and all the immigrants and condo developers will look up and shout "save us!" and I'll whisper "No."

I hope this doesn't count as empty quoting.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 05:36

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Seriously though, have any of you met a single vancouverite you didn't want to punch in the smug face? For all you autists, by single I mean a nice gaussian.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 05:42

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

Cultural Imperial posted:

Seriously though, have any of you met a single vancouverite you didn't want to punch in the smug face? For all you autists, by single I mean a nice gaussian.

How did I end up avoiding getting punched in the face around you?

# ? Jan 21, 2015 05:47

French Canadian: Feb 23, 2004; Fluffy cat sensory experience

My Canadian relatives are indeed naive and smug. Sometimes I would like to punch them but like autistic children I just cannot.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 06:34

Furnaceface: Oct 21, 2004

Cultural Imperial posted:

Seriously though, have any of you met a single vancouverite you didn't want to punch in the smug face? For all you autists, by single I mean a nice gaussian.

Do they count as Vancouverites if they moved out there from Ontario and got trapped? Because if that counts then yes I do know some Vancouverites that are pretty awesome and great people.

2 years ago I was worried. Im still worried, but now for a whole new set of reasons. The longer this poo poo goes on the more damage its going to do when it finally all comes down because the range of people that would be affected is continually growing.

gently caress Realtors^TM though, they can all get hosed for making sure this madness continues. :colbert:

# ? Jan 21, 2015 06:47

Precambrian Video Games: Aug 19, 2002

Cultural Imperial posted:

I recently told a friend of mine that I expect to be living in a house on the west side a couple blocks from Kits beach and I'm not even trolling. Either market values are going to collapse to a point where I can afford to buy this house or my investment strategy (or really the strategy of my advisor) is going to help me make a killing when Canada's economy turns to absolute poo poo.

Wow you must really hate Vancouver(ites) a lot if your nefarious plan is to earn enough money until you can finally afford to move back to this godawful shithole and into the forgiving embrace of those smug motherfuckers.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 07:50

AVeryLargeRadish: Aug 19, 2011; I LITERALLY DON'T KNOW HOW TO NOT BE A WEIRD SEXUAL CREEP ABOUT PREPUBESCENT ANIME GIRLS, READ ALL ABOUT IT HERE!!!

eXXon posted:

Wow you must really hate Vancouver(ites) a lot if your nefarious plan is to earn enough money until you can finally afford to move back to this godawful shithole and into the forgiving embrace of those smug motherfuckers.

Where's the fun if he can't gloat and tell them "I told you so!" in person? :allears:

# ? Jan 21, 2015 07:55

Terebus: Feb 17, 2007; Pillbug

AVeryLargeRadish posted:

Where's the fun if he can't gloat and tell them "I told you so!" in person?

But you can do that over the internet from a city thats not vancouver.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 08:29

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

OSI bean dip posted:

I'd love to see how these idiots who planted their gardens would feel about their empty income property being squatted in the same way.

Vancouver actually has a tax break for property owners who allow community gardens on vacant lots. It's typical to reach an agreement between gardeners and owners beforehand, though, and to be aware that the arrangement is temporary.

I have a feeling that isn't quite what happened along the rail line.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 09:24

Lead out in cuffs: Sep 18, 2012; "That's right. We've evolved."

"I can see that. Cool mutations."

blah_blah posted:

Yeah Koerner's used to be awful but was redone after being closed for a long time (afaik it had something to do with serving undergrads one too many times) and now they actually have good food and good beer.

Yeah they served beer to a 17-year-old girl who then broke her leg drunkenly jumping off the roof the building. It got them closed down right quick.

It's pretty nice now, though the faux-hipster decor makes me laugh.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 09:36

triplexpac: Mar 24, 2007; Suck it
Two tears in a bucket
And then another thing
I'm not the one they'll try their luck with
Hit hard like brass knuckles
See your face through the turnbuckle dude
I got no love for you

RBC released a report that says hey, maybe buying a house in the middle of nowhere and having to commute into Toronto doesn't make financial sense

https://www.rbcadvicecentre.com/pembina-location-matters/

# ? Jan 21, 2015 15:48

Lain Iwakura: Aug 5, 2004; The body exists only to verify one's own existence.; Taco Defender

BoC is lowering rates by 0.25%. :woop:

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:06

melon cat: Jan 21, 2010; Nap Ghost

melon cat fucked around with this message at 05:47 on Mar 16, 2019

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:09

Reince Penis: Nov 15, 2007; by R. Guyovich

OSI bean dip posted:

BoC is lowering rates by 0.25%.

I love the smell of monetary panic in the morning.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:09

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

quote:

Stephen Poloz. THE MAN. RT @globebusiness: #BREAKING NEWS: Bank of Canada shocks market with rate cut http://t.co/fZpDiMHO2n

https://twitter.com/LJKawa/status/557917472624746496?s=09

Awesome now I get a sweet discount on my m4 car payment.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:12

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

quote:

BoC MPR explains that low oil prices aren't net stimulative for Cdn consumers bcuz of the hit to employment & negative terms of trade shock.

https://twitter.com/LJKawa/status/557919063704633344?s=09

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:15

Lexicon: Jul 29, 2003; I had a beer with Stephen Harper once and now I like him.

Does anyone feel like effort-posting about why a rate cut makes sense here? How exactly does it counter the effect of cheap oil? So what if borrowing becomes marginally cheaper - if you're hosed by a low oil price, you're hosed by a low oil price.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:46

Baudin: Dec 31, 2009

Lexicon posted:

Does anyone feel like effort-posting about why a rate cut makes sense here? How exactly does it counter the effect of cheap oil? So what if borrowing becomes marginally cheaper - if you're hosed by a low oil price, you're hosed by a low oil price.

It shows the BoC is worried about low inflation. Lowering the rate stokes inflation and growth.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:48

namaste friends: Sep 18, 2004; by Smythe

Mortgage broker twitter is having a party. Check what a5 year rate is.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:50

Baudin: Dec 31, 2009

Cultural Imperial posted:

Mortgage broker twitter is having a party. Check what a5 year rate is.

I'm going to have to talk to the mortgage broker I usually talk to regarding apartment mortgages and see how much this changes his business.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 16:52

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# ? May 12, 2024 21:30

Pieces: Jan 25, 2011

Baudin posted:

It shows the BoC is worried about low inflation. Lowering the rate stokes inflation and growth.

But why does that matter? It kills our dollar. Cost of importing goes up, we pay it back in food, electronics, etc.

# ? Jan 21, 2015 17:06

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