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The point is moot because Iran will never invade Israel. Iran has a self interest in not being turned into a parking lot.
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Feb 24, 2015 05:10
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Venom Snake posted:The point is moot because Iran will never invade Israel. Iran has a self interest in not being turned into a parking lot. It's not moot at all, because the reality is the exact opposite of what you're saying. 
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Feb 24, 2015 05:13
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Absurd Alhazred posted:And then they would loving steamroll Israel. They have basically uninterrupted land passage from Iran, through Iraq and Syria, into Northern Israel. They will have Hezbollah and Syrian support. Israel's air defense is probably much superior, but eventually they will run out of Iron Dome missiles/SAMs/whatevers, especially after a few weeks of Hezbollah missiles raining down on them and drones popping in. And they only have that many missiles before they run out of materiel for bombing campaigns, and then they'll have to deal with a ground invasion. I'm not so sure that Israel would face sanctions - or, indeed, any consequences worth noting - just for one or two little unprovoked strikes against other countries' energy facilities. Iran learned quite well in the Iran-Iraq War how much sheer ridiculous bullshit an aggressor can get away with when the world is determined to support them or determined to see the downfall of their target. And although international support for Israel has declined somewhat in recent years, it's still leaps and bounds ahead of international support for Iran. If the international sanctions regime against Iran doesn't completely collapse, then a successful Israeli strike on the refineries would practically win any potential war right there. Without the ability to refine its own oil, Iran would be almost completely dependent on imported oil from the rest of the world. If they launched an invasion in response, Israel would just defend with all their might and cry to the US about how the evil Jew-hating Iranians are trying to destroy Israel and drive the Jews into the sea, guaranteeing them whatever defensive aid they need to hold Iranian forces back until economic and diplomatic pressures on Iran to end the war take their toll.
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Feb 24, 2015 05:35
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Main Paineframe posted:I'm not so sure that Israel would face sanctions - or, indeed, any consequences worth noting - just for one or two little unprovoked strikes against other countries' energy facilities. Iran learned quite well in the Iran-Iraq War how much sheer ridiculous bullshit an aggressor can get away with when the world is determined to support them or determined to see the downfall of their target. And although international support for Israel has declined somewhat in recent years, it's still leaps and bounds ahead of international support for Iran. You are ignoring the main counterfactual here. I am explaining that without US support, Israel poses no credible threat. You stating that with US support Israel does pose a threat doesn't address this at all. Hell, it's not even really a counterfactual considering how many times the US in no uncertain terms told Israel not to attack Iran. Including the SoD telling Israel they can't succeed. This was the response to the attack on the Iraqi nuclear site, by the way. And strangely enough, this attack was coordinated with Iran. 
Absurd Alhazred fucked around with this message at 05:44 on Feb 24, 2015 |
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Feb 24, 2015 05:39
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Main Paineframe posted:I'm not so sure that Israel would face sanctions - or, indeed, any consequences worth noting - just for one or two little unprovoked strikes against other countries' energy facilities. Yes, poor Saddam Hussein. Another victim of the Zionist octopus.
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Feb 24, 2015 05:46
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Absurd Alhazred posted:You are ignoring the main counterfactual here. I am explaining that without US support, Israel poses no credible threat. You stating that with US support Israel does pose a threat doesn't address this at all. Yes, if Israel loses US support, they will probably be curbstomped by Iran. That said, Israel will also be curbstomped by Iran if every gun, bullet, plane, and tank in Israel spontaneously bursts into flame, and that's probably only slightly less likely to happen. No matter what the administration says now, the Senate will vote 100-0 for aid to Israel and heavier sanctions on Iran if an Iranian army shows up at Israel's border (even if it was clearly provoked by Israel committing acts of war) and the administration will go with the political flow rather than take a stand. I doubt Israel would get much aid attacking Iran, but as soon as Israel itself is threatened, the US will intervene at all costs to prevent Israel's defeat while trying to force Iran to accept a ceasefire, and return to the status quo. That response is nothing more than a Security Council resolution saying Israel shouldn't have done that. Any actual punitive action was expressly blocked by the US, as usual. And it's not surprising that Iran backed the attack, given that they were being invaded by Iraq at the time. Of course, the really funny part is that Iraq was operating with the full blessing and support of the US as well as much of the international community, despite carrying out an unprovoked invasion of Iran and even launching chemical weapons attacks against Iranian civilians. Like I said, when the international community's in the mood to pick winners and losers, it's willing to turn a blind eye to tremendous amounts of bullshit committed by their chosen champion.
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Feb 24, 2015 06:20
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Main Paineframe posted:Yes, if Israel loses US support, they will probably be curbstomped by Iran. Great, then you agree with this: Absurd Alhazred posted:Also, keep in mind that without at least implied US support, Israel is a paper tiger as far as attacking Iran directly is concerned. They would run out of nukes long before Iran runs out of conventional firebombing arsenals, and they've shown how apt they are at big-boy ground warfare. Not to mention how hesitant they would be to expend their own arsenal of conventional if they cannot count on an auto-refill from the US. which you were earlier arguing against?
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Feb 24, 2015 06:23
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Great, then you agree with this: You seemed to be implying that an Israeli strategy would necessarily involve burning Iran to the ground with nukes or a full-on invasion. I was pointing out that a full-scale Israeli invasion of Iran or all-out nuclear carpet-bombing of Iran is incredibly unlikely, as Israel really only needs to carry out a few strikes to badly wound Iran's economy, and then they just have to hold out long enough for Iran to give in to international pressure in order to get sanctions lifted. I was also pointing out the often-neglected nuclear power angle, and bringing up for the benefit of the thread the point that nukes are not Israel's sole concern and even a 100%-guaranteed weapons-free nuclear power program in Iran is still a threat to Israeli interests.
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Feb 24, 2015 06:35
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Absurd Alhazred posted:But I really don't see how the Guardian reads that memo and comes to these conclusions. The memo is consistent with Netanyahu's rhetoric, rather than undermining it. I don't think Netanyahu's rhetoric is coherent enough to bother considering. He's basically been screaming "any day now" for the last few years. It's not even something worth arguing with, because it has no substance to argue with.
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Feb 24, 2015 06:39
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ReV VAdAUL posted:Complying with US wishes didn't save Gaddafi. p sure the us didn't ask gaddafi to start telling everyone he was going turn benghazi into a ghost town.
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Feb 24, 2015 11:00
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Volkerball posted:I wouldn't feel very comfortable with KSA having a bomb either, but all the same. One country is arming the Islamic Front, and the other is on the ground in Syria killing civilians. The stated discussion here isn't whether or not Iran "deserves" or needs one. It's ensuring that their program is limited to nuclear energy. But Israel doesn't want Iran to have anything whatsoever that helps them grow, whether that be a reduction of sanctions or increasing their ability to produce energy, and that's why they're so hung up about nuclear weapons. I doubt anyone with experience in these diplomatic ties truly believes Iran getting the bomb is in the forecast. The whole thing is just a cover for the real debate. If the international community de-escalates tensions with Iran, encourages growth and tries to adopt them into the world order, are they going to come away looking like Neville Chamberlain? That's a tough question to answer. No, we should keep ostracizing and pressuring Iran, so that it joins the Absurd Alhazred posted:Now imagine all of this and a world just looking for a good reason to just sanction Israel, period. Say, unprovokedly bombing oil refinery facilities. They just need to say that a cousin third-removed of someone who once say "good morning" to a member of the Hamas has visited the area at some time within the last ten years, and recite the magical formula "Israel has the right to defend itself", and everybody will cheer them on.
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Feb 24, 2015 11:11
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I wonder how much traction you'd get with the usual suspects if you started pointing out that Israel operates under literal Sharia law. It's the exact same thing they explode into white-hot rage about here in the US - civil matters being deferred to Islamic religious courts. Thanks, Main Painframe, BTW - I only knew some of that insanity. There really needs to be more pushback against the concept that Israel is in any way a liberal western democracy.
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Feb 24, 2015 15:04
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Unlike with Gaddafi, Iran has something to bring to the table: being a provable regional power with a stabilizing influence against proclaimed US enemies. It isn't a matter of protection, anyway, it's a matter of literally Israel having zero capacity of doing anything meaningful to Iran without active US backing, nukes or no. Eh, it wasn't that long ago the US attempted a colour revolution in Iran and Congress and the presumptive next President are openly hostile to Iran (against good reason but what else is new). Assuming any reasonable behaviour will prevent the US from eventually giving Israel the nod is a coin toss at best. I don't think Iran getting nukes is a good thing but I wouldn't fault their logic in doing so. Volkerball posted:p sure the us didn't ask gaddafi to start telling everyone he was going turn benghazi into a ghost town. ReV VAdAUL fucked around with this message at 17:29 on Feb 24, 2015 |
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Feb 24, 2015 17:21
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Harik posted:I wonder how much traction you'd get with the usual suspects if you started pointing out that Israel operates under literal Sharia law. It's the exact same thing they explode into white-hot rage about here in the US - civil matters being deferred to Islamic religious courts. I would say that Israel is a liberal Western democracy, with liberal secular parties...but it also has strong religious, nationalist, and militarist parties that make US fundies and the US "culture war" look reasonable by comparison, and the way the parliamentary system works in Israel means that most of them wield disproportionate influence due to their ability to make or break a coalition. It's in a state of cold war with itself, and every policy it pursues only radicalizes these internal conflicts further. It's tempting to call Israel theocratic or fascist, but I think it's better described as a democracy with strong theocratic and nationalist political parties constantly seeking to push the democracy in those directions. It might not stay that way forever, though - although I'm not in Israel, the social and cultural tensions there seem incredible, the demographic trends and policies seem poised to radicalize things even further, and I feel like sooner or later something's going to come to a head. And on that note, my second post on Law of Return issues and the effects it has on Israeli society will come tonight.
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Feb 24, 2015 18:18
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Latest survey, solicited by Israel's Channel 2: Zionist Camp: 24 Likud: 22 Bayit Yehudi: 12 Yesh Atid: 12 Joint Arab List: 12 Kulanu: 7 Shas: 7 United Torah Judaism: 7 Yisrael Beytenu: 6 Meretz: 6 Yachad – Ha'am Itanu: 5 If these are the results it's going to be a difficult time for anyone other than Netanyahu to form a coalition, I think.
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Feb 24, 2015 23:13
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Main Paineframe posted:I would say that Israel is a liberal Western democracy, with liberal secular parties...but it also has strong religious, nationalist, and militarist parties that make US fundies and the US "culture war" look reasonable by comparison, and the way the parliamentary system works in Israel means that most of them wield disproportionate influence due to their ability to make or break a coalition. It's in a state of cold war with itself, and every policy it pursues only radicalizes these internal conflicts further. It's tempting to call Israel theocratic or fascist, but I think it's better described as a democracy with strong theocratic and nationalist political parties constantly seeking to push the democracy in those directions. It might not stay that way forever, though - although I'm not in Israel, the social and cultural tensions there seem incredible, the demographic trends and policies seem poised to radicalize things even further, and I feel like sooner or later something's going to come to a head. Israel is definitely getting much worse from a secular perspective, but the US certainly seems a lot more theocratic, especially in red states.
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Feb 25, 2015 04:23
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Kim Jong Il posted:Israel is definitely getting much worse from a secular perspective, but the US certainly seems a lot more theocratic, especially in red states. Show me one State where you cannot marry someone if they're not of the same religion as you, or if they are the same religion of you but the religion says you can't marry (for example, if you're a Cohen and she's a divorcee). Show me one State where public transportation is overwhelmingly completely shut off over Saturday for "religious reasons" (or Sunday, I guess). Not reduced service, shut off.
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Feb 25, 2015 04:32
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Kim Jong Il posted:Israel is definitely getting much worse from a secular perspective, but the US certainly seems a lot more theocratic, especially in red states. Compared with when?
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Feb 25, 2015 04:38
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Kim Jong Il posted:Israel is definitely getting much worse from a secular perspective, but the US certainly seems a lot more theocratic, especially in red states. Uh, no. "In God We Trust," "One Nation Under God," this stuff is barely worth objecting to when fundies consistently get their asses kicked on every topic aside from abortion, where the left is generally doing an OK job holding the line.
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Feb 25, 2015 05:05
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So, Netanyahu turned down an invite to meet with senate democrates. Does this change anything at all?
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Feb 25, 2015 06:15
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RandomPauI posted:So, Netanyahu turned down an invite to meet with senate democrates. Does this change anything at all? quote:Netanyahu said to meet with Democrats "at this time could compound the misperception of partisanship regarding my upcoming visit." 
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Feb 25, 2015 06:20
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Maybe he means the misperception that his visit isn't partisan? Is he meeting with any Republicans or Republican groups?
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Feb 25, 2015 06:27
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RandomPauI posted:So, Netanyahu turned down an invite to meet with senate democrates. Does this change anything at all? durbin posted:We offered the Prime Minister an opportunity to balance the politically divisive invitation from Speaker (John) Boehner with a private meeting with Democrats who are committed to keeping the bipartisan support of Israel strong. His refusal to meet is disappointing to those of us who have stood by Israel for decades.
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Feb 25, 2015 06:44
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tentative8e8op posted:I think things might get really weird if Netanyahu somehow turns American support for Israel into just another partisan issue. That's what has had Israel supporters telling him to cancel this speech, both in the US and Israel.
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Feb 25, 2015 06:47
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So last time we talked about one of the big issues with the Law of Return, the fact that the religious establishment does not recognize these immigrants as Jews, leading to humiliating and draconian conversion ordeals in order to be involved in religious-only activities such as marriage, or having to leave the country and carry those rituals out abroad. And the very first response anyone posted was that they should leave. And that's actually pretty prophetic, because this time we're going to look at how Law of Return migrants have fared in Israel in general, and how they've fit into Israeli society despite those assimilation difficulties. The answer to that, by the way, is "poorly". The religious consider them "non-Jewish" and treat them accordingly (and many are actually non-Jews who just had a Jewish ancestor), while even among the secular it's generally agreed that the immigrants aren't Zionists and don't really belong there. Even more importantly, though, they're poor and miserable - yes, even educated immigrants from modern countries. Israel's economic woes, with its high poverty rate, low salaries, and high cost of living, are hitting them hard, and as clear foreigners with accents, they seem to face a glass ceiling as well. As a result, the million former-Soviet Israelis that arrived in the 90s are leaving in droves, as are their children, who have similarly pessimistic outlooks concerning their future in Israel. The message is clear - they'd rather go back to Russia or try their luck in Europe than raise a family in Israel. Incidentally, this ought to have major political repercussions over the long run. The more recent immigrants to Israel, and particularly the hundreds of thousands of ex-Soviet Israelis, have noticeably different voting patterns compared to people/families who've been in Israel since the 40s. They tend to be conservative, working-class, in favor of secularism and generally opposed to the theocratic wings, supportive of a strong military and security apparatus, big fans of as much capitalism as possible, and aren't surprised in the slightest to hear that a politician is corrupt. They also make up maybe 20% of Jewish voters, so they matter, a lot. In the past, Avigdor Lieberman's Yisrael Beiteinu party has been the "Russian party" and snagged the bulk of the Russian vote, but Netanyahu and Bennett are always on the watch for an opportunity to snap up portions of that ex-Soviet base. However, they've mostly built that support among Russians by focusing on being the enemy of Palestine, Iran, and the Chief Rabbinate. While there's plenty of talk of easing the conversion process in hopes of keeping the Russians from leaving, it doesn't seem as though anyone's willing to fight for economic opportunity for the immigrants, which is why the trend of immigration will probably continue and possibly lead to drastic political shifts. http://www.haaretz.com/news/national/.premium-1.625191 quote:Branded in Israel as ‘others,’ many immigrants leave for other countries http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/1,7340,L-4334357,00.html quote:Why my friends are leaving Israel http://en.idi.org.il/analysis/articles/why-are-the-russians-leaving-israel quote:Why are the Russians Leaving Israel?
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Feb 25, 2015 07:55
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Main Paineframe posted:Plight of Russian olim While I am well aware of the struggles of Russian- and other FSU-born olim, do you have any data confirming that they are indeed leaving "in droves"? Being half of those leaving for more than a year, when you're talking about 20% of the Jewish population, and a significant number of the recent Jewish immigrants, is not surprising. The question is whether their population in country is decreasing or increasing compared to others. You should also factor in the backlash from Russian revanchism in Eastern Ukraine. That may up the number of FSU-sourced immigrants, further counteracting the trend you are positing. ETA: Just to get a sense of how some media is covering the US-Israel relationship in light of Netanyahu's upcoming speech, this is the graphic the Hebrew version of Ynet posts as a theme for stories such as this:  The writing in yellow is "הקרע"="The Rift". A similar story on the more right-wing and usually pretty pro-Netanyahu NRG is categorized under "Crisis in Relations". This is on both their front pages. Meanwhile, if you go to the paper Adelson funds for Bibi, Yisrael Hayom, their homepage barely mentions any of this, except to refer to that letter Democrats sent to persuade Netanayhu to meet them privately, which the paper presents as them trying to find a way to save face. A paragraph there repeats their warnings about the consequences of his actions. Otherwise, everything is going great for him in Israel Today! 
Absurd Alhazred fucked around with this message at 09:02 on Feb 25, 2015 |
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Feb 25, 2015 08:10
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Two things I can't source: 1. 201X was the first year when the outgoing emigration total exceeded the incoming immigration total. 2. Israel is the tutorial level of immigration, particularly for people coming from the Soviet Union (since when did FSU become a stable acronym, anyways?). If you're used to flowing along with the stream, rather than carving your own path in life, Israel is the place to be - you get a place to live, language courses and temporary employment just for showing up and breathing.
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Feb 25, 2015 09:02
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When is Netanyahu supposed to actually speak anyway? I thought this would have happened weeks ago. Feels like we have been discussing this for 3 months.
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Feb 25, 2015 15:21
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Googled it, it's next Tuesday:quote:The head of Israel's election commission acted on Monday to limit any pre-election boost Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may get from a March 3 speech to the U.S. Congress, in which he will warn of the threat from Iran's nuclear program. Also, apparently Natantyahu tried to invite Kuwait and UAE ambassadors to attend. They refused, obviously, because no Arabic politician would be caught dead there even if it's from nations threatened by Iran.
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Feb 25, 2015 15:54
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The day Netanyahu came to your capital was the most important day of your life. But for me, it was Tuesday.
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Feb 25, 2015 16:03
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Thought it was 2 weeks before the election which is on the 17th March. I dont know whats worse trying to sabotage his closest allies foreign policy or turning whats traditionally seen as a huge honor in to a stump speech. He really is a shameless mother fucker.
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Feb 25, 2015 16:07
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HGH posted:Googled it, it's next Tuesday: Man if only Israel accepted that arab deal and pulled back to the 67 borders they would have had allies readily in the region to threaten iran 
Fizzil fucked around with this message at 16:43 on Feb 25, 2015 |
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Feb 25, 2015 16:39
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Latest survey, solicited by Israel's Channel 2:
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Feb 25, 2015 16:59
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Bibi would include the ghost of Idi Amin Dada if it would ensure he gets to be prime minister for a couple of extra months.
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Feb 25, 2015 17:21
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emanresu tnuocca posted:Bibi would include the ghost of Idi Amin Dada if it would ensure he gets to be prime minister for a couple of extra months. Hey now, there are lines even Bibi won't cross. Like talking to United Arab List. He'd rather not be PM than have to talk to them, for instance.
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Feb 25, 2015 17:42
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Absurd Alhazred posted:While I am well aware of the struggles of Russian- and other FSU-born olim, do you have any data confirming that they are indeed leaving "in droves"? Being half of those leaving for more than a year, when you're talking about 20% of the Jewish population, and a significant number of the recent Jewish immigrants, is not surprising. The question is whether their population in country is decreasing or increasing compared to others. If 20% of the population makes up 50% of those leaving, then that's definitely a disproportionate amount. And since I doubt the birthrate is making up for it, considering that immigrants have expressed considerable pessimism about being able to or willing to raise families in Israel. Getting hard numbers is fairly difficult, though, because the Israeli government doesn't seem to actually record the number of people leaving the country in any given year, so most estimates come are based on increases in the number of Israelis recorded as living abroad on a long-term basis (even if they're living abroad permanently, they still retain Israeli citizenship). However, the ex-Soviet Israelis aren't the only immigrants leaving, they're just the largest immigrant bloc. And it's not just immigrants, either. Young people are the other main demographic emigrating from Israel. The percentage of emigrants with university degrees is double what it is among the general population. It's not a good sign for Israel's future - immigrants are leaving because of poor economic prospects and the state's failure to absorb them, young educated people are leaving because of poor economic prospects and poorer support for leftism, and so on. Aside from the issues of brain drain, demographic shifts among Jews, and such, there's a larger problem that is causing serious concern among Israeli leadership - the demographic bomb. The secular, nationalist right is intent on attracting as many immigrants as possible in order to make up for the higher population growth among Israeli non-Jews. To them, Jewish-identifying people leaving Israel is a major crisis that threatens the Jewish state. Indeed, the desire to increase the number of self-identified Jews at any cost has led to drastic measures, which I'll cover in the third of this series of effortposts. http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/07/05/the-million-missing-israelis/ quote:More than six decades of statehood, successive Israeli governments have repeatedly stressed the centrality of Jewish immigration and the Law of Return of all Jews to Israel for the well-being, security, and survival of the nation. Yet while much is published on Jewish immigration to Israel, considerably less information is available about Jewish emigration from Israel. Main Paineframe fucked around with this message at 17:50 on Feb 25, 2015 |
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Feb 25, 2015 17:45
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emanresu tnuocca posted:Bibi would include the ghost of Idi Amin Dada if it would ensure he gets to be prime minister for a couple of extra months. If he got desperate, maybe, but he's been reluctant to include people too far right (really!) in his coalition in the past. He hasn't allowed the previous Kach-like entities in. Main Paineframe posted:If 20% of the population makes up 50% of those leaving, then that's definitely a disproportionate amount. Again, they may be 20% of the total population, but from the Foreign Policy piece you cite below, "40 percent of Jewish Israelis are foreign-born". That actually means that them being half of the emigrating population is entirely explained by them being new immigrants. As one of your previous citations noted, it's somewhat natural for migrants to become dissatisfied with where they've ended up. (I realize this requires closer scrutiny, as not all those who leave are recent immigrants, but a model of the vast majority of those emigrating being recent immigrants, while a small minority is those from more established backgrounds, would fit with the data you've presented so far, and would show that Russian immigrants do not face statistically meaningful additional challenges.) quote:And since I doubt the birthrate is making up for it, considering that immigrants have expressed considerable pessimism about being able to or willing to raise families in Israel. Getting hard numbers is fairly difficult, though, because the Israeli government doesn't seem to actually record the number of people leaving the country in any given year, so most estimates come are based on increases in the number of Israelis recorded as living abroad on a long-term basis (even if they're living abroad permanently, they still retain Israeli citizenship). I understand that measurement is (intentionally) difficult: for example, when my parents, who were studying abroad when they had my brother and myself, came back to Israel, the immigration authorities insisted on recording us children as new immigrants, basically to improve their stats. quote:However, the ex-Soviet Israelis aren't the only immigrants leaving, they're just the largest immigrant bloc. And it's not just immigrants, either. Young people are the other main demographic emigrating from Israel. The percentage of emigrants with university degrees is double what it is among the general population. It's not a good sign for Israel's future - immigrants are leaving because of poor economic prospects and the state's failure to absorb them, young educated people are leaving because of poor economic prospects and poorer support for leftism, and so on. I can tell you that those are many of the reasons that I emigrated, and yet while there are a few people in my peer group who have emigrated, it's not really all that a big proportion. I will be meeting a lot of my friends (or have the chance to, not sure if it will happen due to time constraints) when I come visit in Israel, and they skew leftist and well-educated. quote:Aside from the issues of brain drain, demographic shifts among Jews, and such, there's a larger problem that is causing serious concern among Israeli leadership - the demographic bomb. The secular, nationalist right is intent on attracting as many immigrants as possible in order to make up for the higher population growth among Israeli non-Jews. To them, Jewish-identifying people leaving Israel is a major crisis that threatens the Jewish state. Indeed, the desire to increase the number of self-identified Jews at any cost has led to drastic measures, which I'll cover in the third of this series of effortposts. If I'm not mistaken, Haredi Jews, at least, more than make up for it. But I'm happy to read your third series of sources and see what's what. Thanks for going to the trouble! 
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Feb 25, 2015 18:21
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Absurd Alhazred posted:If he got desperate, maybe, but he's been reluctant to include people too far right (really!) in his coalition in the past. He hasn't allowed the previous Kach-like entities in. True, yet his own party used to include Feiglin who is as Messiah Crazed as they come and still includes the likes of Dannon and Levin and of course the official sponsor of LEHAVA Ms. Tzipi Hotobelli, although the old bibs did try to rig the likud elections to keep her out. In the current constellation he won't sit with Yachad cause he simply doesn't need them and there's little incentive to include an ideologically motivated party that represents such a small electorate, he'll take Shas over them any day of the week.
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Feb 25, 2015 18:52
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emanresu tnuocca posted:True, yet his own party used to include Feiglin who is as Messiah Crazed as they come and still includes the likes of Dannon and Levin and of course the official sponsor of LEHAVA Ms. Tzipi Hotobelli, although the old bibs did try to rig the likud elections to keep her out. He'd been doing the same to Feiglin for years, too. quote:In the current constellation he won't sit with Yachad cause he simply doesn't need them and there's little incentive to include an ideologically motivated party that represents such a small electorate, he'll take Shas over them any day of the week. Yeah, even if they were a solid option he'd be reluctant because they'd scare anybody to the left of him away. He always likes having a bit of a buffer between him and the left inside coalition, to keep up his patriotic cred. He also always wants someone to the right of him so he gets to sell himself as cool-headed.
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Feb 25, 2015 19:12
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Absurd Alhazred posted:Latest survey, solicited by Israel's Channel 2: Left bloc: Zionist Camp - Yesh Atid - Meretz = 42. Right bloc: Likud - Bayit Yehudi - Yachad = 39. Hareidi bloc (UTJ - Shas): = 14. Will never sit in government with Yesh Atid Joint Arab List = 12. Will never sit in a government (or be invited to one) Kulanu and Yisrael Beytenu are tossups but both lean right and have no problem being in government with Netanyahu. Hard right bloc - Likud / Bayit Yehudi / Yachad / Hareidi / Israel Beytenu = 62. However Netanyahu hates coalitions that are that close (it gives minor parties too much power to bring down the government) and will try to invite as many as possible. However all that's really left is Kulanu for another 7 which would counteract a minor party leaving. This is why some people are muttering about a Likud / Zionist Camp coalition, which literally everyone voting for both parties would hate, which is totally a Netanyahu thing to do!
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Feb 25, 2015 19:20
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