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OwlBot 2000
Jun 1, 2009

The Insect Court posted:

My point, which you seem understandably reluctant to address, is that certain people seem to have a visceral loathing for Israel that far exceeds their disapproval of ISIS..

Pretty sure I haven't seen any serious suggestion that we carry out airstrikes on Israelis, which many people have supported against ISIS. And nearly everyone condemned the praise for King Abdullah when Obama and the media called him a "reformer" instead of a tyrant, and everyone agrees Boko Haram need to be destroyed. What makes you angry is that people do hold Israel to a reasonable standard that's consistent with their view of other bad states, when you think Israel should get a pass because they call themselves "the only democracy (that denies rights to 4.7 million)".

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eSports Chaebol
Feb 22, 2005

Yeah, actually, gamers in the house forever,

My Imaginary GF posted:

If you aren't a Jew and wish to be regarded as a Jew, the simplest solution is to become a Jew. The process for an individual to become a Jew applies to all groups, thus making your example a false comparison.

Well hell maybe all the Jews should just convert to stymie anti-Semitism! (nb I'm even less serious than Herzl)

emanresu tnuocca
Sep 2, 2011

by Athanatos
Haha, Avigdor Liberman just presented his demands from any possible government that would like to have the support of Yisrael Beitenu and their mighty 5 seats following the elections, the terms are as following:

1. Death penalty for terrorists who've been found guilty of murdering Israeli citizens
2. Every 16 year old must sign a declaration of loyalty to the 'symbols of the Israeli state' as a prerequisite for receiving an ID card - these symbols include the national anthem, the flag and the declaration of independence. (one must wonder how many kahanists will be considered disloyal when they refuse to swear an oath to the declaration of independence that describes Israel as a democratic state).
3. Preferential treatment in employment and education to IDF and national service veterans
4. Revoking Haredi privileges as far as enslitment to the IDF or national service are concerned
5. Revoking the ability of the supreme court to overturn Knesset and government legislation.

It's cool that he's trying his hardest to antagonize as much of the Israeli public as possible and to be an as big of an international embarrassment as possible, I will personally be very giddy if he gets less than 4 seats in the elections and is blissfully removed from Israeli politics for a year or two.

Cat Mattress
Jul 14, 2012

by Cyrano4747

emanresu tnuocca posted:

5. Revoking the ability of the supreme court to overturn Knesset and government legislation.

Then what's the point of the Supreme Court, if it's no longer supreme?

Heavy neutrino
Sep 16, 2007

You made a fine post for yourself. ...For a casualry, I suppose.

emanresu tnuocca posted:

5. Revoking the ability of the supreme court to overturn Knesset and government legislation.

Uuuh, so basically he wants to get rid of the idea of rights that are protected from parliamentary/democratic whims?

Xandu
Feb 19, 2006


It's hard to be humble when you're as great as I am.
Anyone know the deal with Israel Prize in Literature? I saw Netanyahu fired two of the judges.

GenderSelectScreen
Mar 7, 2010

I DON'T KNOW EITHER DON'T ASK ME
College Slice
"I'm not racist, I just think Israel has a right to kill those filthy arabs."
-Ever loving person on my Facebook.

:suicide:

emanresu tnuocca
Sep 2, 2011

by Athanatos

Xandu posted:

Anyone know the deal with Israel Prize in Literature? I saw Netanyahu fired two of the judges.

He said it was an 'anti-Zionist' institution and that it was high-time only cool and loyal zionists got to to decide who gets the award, he didn't actually fire any judges he disqualified two candidates which in turn got many nominees to disqualify themselves from the competition, Weinstein than declared that the prime minister actually doesn't have the authority to disqualify judges from the committee but it was already too late by that point and the prize will not be handed out this year iirc.

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010

Heavy neutrino posted:

Uuuh, so basically he wants to get rid of the idea of rights that are protected from parliamentary/democratic whims?

More or less, yeah. In the current polticial minefield, the Israeli Supreme Court functions as a strong force for secularism and equal rights, striking down large amounts of religious-centric or overtly racist law from the various wild right-wingers. It's not really surprising that the extreme right is getting madder and madder at the constant foilings of their attempts to enshrine Haredi practices in law and disenfranchise various minorities.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin
Israeli Supreme Court is the only reason Arab parties have even been able to run in the past, the Parliament having struck them down as having denied Israel as the state of the Jewish people.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

ComradeCosmobot posted:

Max Fischer at Vox seems to think that this isn't going to happen, as Netanyahu has all but declared the two-state solution dead to get the right-wing vote.
Well then I guess I'll eventually welcome and give my support the new singular state of Israel. You guys had the chance to do the easier two-state way, now you get to go the more difficult one-state way. Good loving luck, and try to start treating the Palestinians better than we did the Native Americans.

To be honest with how loving sliced up and settled the West Bank is, and how much of it is already under Israeli control, the two-state solution has been almost impossible for years now anyway.

Main Paineframe posted:

More or less, yeah. In the current political minefield, the Israeli Supreme Court functions as a strong force for secularism and equal rights, striking down large amounts of religious-centric or overtly racist law from the various wild right-wingers. It's not really surprising that the extreme right is getting madder and madder at the constant foilings of their attempts to enshrine Haredi practices in law and disenfranchise various minorities.
Wow, Israel even has their over version of the crazy fuckers still fighting Marbury vs Madison. It doesn't even surprise me anymore.

Darth Walrus
Feb 13, 2012

fade5 posted:

Well then I guess I'll eventually welcome and give my support the new singular state of Israel. You guys had the chance to do the easier two-state way, now you get to go the more difficult one-state way. Good loving luck, and try to start treating the Palestinians better than we did the Native Americans.

To be honest with how loving sliced up and settled the West Bank is, and how much of it is already under Israeli control, the two-state solution has been almost impossible for years now anyway.

Wow, Israel even has their over version of the crazy fuckers still fighting Marbury vs Madison. It doesn't even surprise me anymore.

Hint - a Netanyahu-proposed one-state solution does not mean reaching out to Palestinians, but ethnically cleansing them even more thoroughly. We may well see a dent getting put in that enormous Palestinian population growth soon.

emanresu tnuocca
Sep 2, 2011

by Athanatos
Words coming out of Netanyahu's mouth don't mean anything, doubly so when spoken before the elections. Regardless if anything Netanyahu's rejection of his own 2009 statements should most naturally be interpreted as a commitment to keep the status-quo going for as long as possible.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

Darth Walrus posted:

Hint - a Netanyahu-proposed one-state solution does not mean reaching out to Palestinians, but ethnically cleansing them even more thoroughly. We may well see a dent getting put in that enormous Palestinian population growth soon.

emanresu tnuocca posted:

Words coming out of Netanyahu's mouth don't mean anything, doubly so when spoken before the elections. Regardless if anything Netanyahu's rejection of his own 2009 statements should most naturally be interpreted as a commitment to keep the status-quo going for as long as possible.
And so when the next Israeli attack on Gaza and/or the West Bank starts, US-Israeli relations start to fray even further as more people get killed. How long the attack goes on and how hard it damages US-Israeli relations will determine when and how far the US distances itself from supporting Israel, as well as allowing non-support of Israel/support of the Palestinians to start becoming a non-suicidal political opinion in the US. (Honestly I think this has already started to happen, with so many Democrats choosing to give the middle finger to Bibi and his little speech with basically no fear of political repercussions.)

I'm under no illusions that a one-state solution will happen peacefully. There will be more poo poo like Pillar of Defense Cloud and Protective Edge, more settlements, more death, and the resistance to eventual "integration" in Israel be worse than it was even in the heart of the South during the Civil Rights Act, and issues will continue to fester below the surface for decades afterward, again just like the US. Palestinians will end up being basically second-class citizens in practice and possibly even in official law, again just like the US but worse.

But eventually integration will happen, and the process towards a one-state solution is starting faster than pretty much anyone thought thanks to Bibi's little speech.

I will say that a two-state solution might also happen, but I don't know if Israel has the stomach to actually tell the settlers in the West Bank to get the gently caress out, and that's (one of) the biggest sticking point(s) to a two-state solution.

If Israel finds the balls to do that, then I'll happily eat my words and look forward to the state of Israel and the state of Palestine, but I just don't see Israel being willing to give up all that land and all those resources.

fade5 fucked around with this message at 01:55 on Mar 10, 2015

Kim Jong Il
Aug 16, 2003
There are always a lot of those sorts of replies and they don't really seem to be grounded in reality. Hillary Clinton is the favorite to be the next president and she will give Israel a blank check. Plus, centrist governments don't really have different records than Likud governments on substance, they just get much more of a pass from the rest of the world. You know, the Obama principle.

Avshalom
Feb 14, 2012

by Lowtax
Declaring the two-state solution dead is making GBS threads all over the vision that my beloved risked getting himself assassinated for - he only ever got to lay the groundwork, which wasn't his fault at all, but it was a massive step and left no doubt that his heart was totally in it. There is no other feasible solution but the split state. There are lots of other possible solutions, many of which would be ethically preferable, but they don't have a chance of happening.

:smith:

Avshalom
Feb 14, 2012

by Lowtax
I'll never let the world forget him! Never!!

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Kim Jong Il posted:

There are always a lot of those sorts of replies and they don't really seem to be grounded in reality. Hillary Clinton is the favorite to be the next president and she will give Israel a blank check. Plus, centrist governments don't really have different records than Likud governments on substance, they just get much more of a pass from the rest of the world. You know, the Obama principle.

Nobody actually thinks its going to happen in the next few years. It's going to happen when the generations who don't give a poo poo about Israel get to power in the US, by which time it's going to be really hard to have two states. We'll all probably be like 60 then.

fade5
May 31, 2012

by exmarx

Avshalom posted:

Declaring the two-state solution dead is making GBS threads all over the vision that my beloved risked getting himself assassinated for - he only ever got to lay the groundwork, which wasn't his fault at all, but it was a massive step and left no doubt that his heart was totally in it. There is no other feasible solution but the split state. There are lots of other possible solutions, many of which would be ethically preferable, but they don't have a chance of happening.

:smith:
Oh don't get me wrong, I'd love for the two-state solution to succeed, and if I saw a potentially viable path forward for the two-state solution I'd be behind it all the way.

I just don't see how it's really possible when the West Bank looks like this:

How the hell do you create a Palestinian state out of that? There's basically no Palestinian land that's contiguous in the West Bank, there's walls and checkpoints everywhere, absolutely no Palestinian access to the Dead Sea, Israeli settlements have literally cut the West Bank in half, and Israel controls basically the entire contiguous eastern 1/3 of the West Bank with the exception of Jericho.

DarkCrawler posted:

Nobody actually thinks its going to happen in the next few years. It's going to happen when the generations who don't give a poo poo about Israel get to power in the US, by which time it's going to be really hard to have two states. We'll all probably be like 60 then.
Basically, I've come around to DarkCrawler's way of seeing things. I'd love to be wrong, and the Bibi speech thing is definitely an unprecedented development in Israel-US relations, but I just don't know if it makes the two-state solution any more likely to happen at all.
:smith:

fade5 fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Mar 10, 2015

Avshalom
Feb 14, 2012

by Lowtax
You withdraw out of Israeli settlements and give them back - not all of them, but enough to create a contiguous state with sea access and enough land for its population to live on and run an economy with. But there was only man who was man enough to drive Israelis out of their settlements with absolutely no regard for his reputation or personal safety. Only one man! :swoon:

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

Avshalom posted:

You withdraw out of Israeli settlements and give them back - not all of them, but enough to create a contiguous state with sea access and enough land for its population to live on and run an economy with. But there was only man who was man enough to drive Israelis out of their settlements with absolutely no regard for his reputation or personal safety. Only one man! :swoon:

The difference between Gaza and West Bank is the difference between night and day. Nine thousand settlers removed isn't going to be enough now, much less in how many decades it takes for the world to force Israel on the table. Also Beloved Arik just basically shifted the settlers to West Bank (total number of settlers grew that year) so :shrug:

Avshalom
Feb 14, 2012

by Lowtax
And even a tiny amount of what needs to be done never will now that the saviour of the middle east is lost to us.

RandomPauI
Nov 24, 2006


Grimey Drawer
What is keeping Israel from pulling a "trail of tears" and expelling all the Palestinians in the West Bank to the Gaza Strip?

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

RandomPauI posted:

What is keeping Israel from pulling a "trail of tears" and expelling all the Palestinians in the West Bank to the Gaza Strip?

Massive international backlash which would destroy their economy, huge military conflict that would kill tens of thousands of them at the very least? That would be like both intifadas put together times 100.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

RandomPauI posted:

What is keeping Israel from pulling a "trail of tears" and expelling all the Palestinians in the West Bank to the Gaza Strip?

There's a lot of West Bank Palestinians, most of the routes they would take go through heavily populated Israeli areas, and Gaza is already one of the densest populated areas in the world.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

computer parts posted:

There's a lot of West Bank Palestinians, most of the routes they would take go through heavily populated Israeli areas, and Gaza is already one of the densest populated areas in the world.

Yeah, the logistics don't pan out. I mean if they could do it they would have done it already.

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich

DarkCrawler posted:

The difference between Gaza and West Bank is the difference between night and day. Nine thousand settlers removed isn't going to be enough now, much less in how many decades it takes for the world to force Israel on the table. Also Beloved Arik just basically shifted the settlers to West Bank (total number of settlers grew that year) so :shrug:

Why remove settlements---the only thing withdrawing from Gaza has done is bring the two-state solution to the verge of death.

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

My Imaginary GF posted:

Why remove settlements---the only thing withdrawing from Gaza has done is bring the two-state solution to the verge of death.

It wasn't much of a withdrawal.

DarkCrawler
Apr 6, 2009

by vyelkin

My Imaginary GF posted:

Why remove settlements---the only thing withdrawing from Gaza has done is bring the two-state solution to the verge of death.

Oh good, you're back, you want to confirm that you think apartheid is OK as long as it is done through proper processes? And you're pro settlement as well, I see!

Avshalom
Feb 14, 2012

by Lowtax

dorkasaurus_rex posted:

It wasn't much of a withdrawal.
It was a start. The only reason it didn't continue further was because the main player had a stroke and was followed up by a pack of weaklings who weren't committed to the project and only got the chance to lead the country at all through residual goodwill. Being associated forever with footage of Jewish grandmothers being dragged screaming out of their homes would be killer blow to anyone's political career if it wasn't followed up by real positive powerful change, and it took huge courage to even go through with that first step. But I repeat myself. :allears:

emanresu tnuocca
Sep 2, 2011

by Athanatos
It isn't even referred to as a withdrawal it was a 'disengagement' and it should be understood as the removal of Israeli civilians and ground forces from the interior of the Gaza strip, it was not done for the benefit of the citizens of Gaza it was done to reduce the amount of IDF casualties, an objective which was achieved with considerable success.

In the 5 years prior to the disengagement 128 Israelis ( 89 soldiers and 39 civilians) were killed in Gaza and the border towns, since 2005 there have been 107 Israeli casualties, about 70% of which died during protective edge (vast majority being soldiers). An analysis of Palestinian casualty rates before/after the disengagement will skew a lot differently obviously though as I'm arguing, this was never actually one of the actual objectives leading to this policy, certainly not on Sharon's behalf.

Framing the disengagement as a 'boon' being granted by the Israelis to Palestinians is already a propagandistic way to look at it which does not hold up in the face of scrutiny, for all intents and purposes the ground occupation of Gaza has become untenable as far as the IDF was concerned due to the intensification in Guerrilla warfare within the strip, it was a decision borne out of Israeli 'security rationale'.

emanresu tnuocca
Sep 2, 2011

by Athanatos
Regardless as for MIGF's actual (asinine) point as for the disengagement effectively killing the prospects of a two state solution this is simply bullshit, the major obstacles facing any possible two state solution have always been the presence of settlers in territories with a majority palestinian population and the lack of territorial contingency between the west bank and gaza, neither of these 'parameters' have been altered by the disengagement from Gaza, if he's arguing that the two state solution is more dead now than it was in 2005 due to the Israeli citizenry being less inclined to support further withdrawals this is also bullshit cause the biggest change in Israeli perceptions ought to be attributed to the second intifada (Sharon visiting the temple mount in 2000 says hi).

emanresu tnuocca fucked around with this message at 14:36 on Mar 10, 2015

dorkasaurus_rex
Jun 10, 2005

gawrsh do you think any women will be there

More Netanyahu poll numbers please. I wish I had paid more attention in yeshiva so I could Google them in Hebrew myself.

emanresu tnuocca
Sep 2, 2011

by Athanatos
I posted this a few (dozens of) pages ago:

emanresu tnuocca posted:

According to these guys who analyzed previous election polls and claim to have come up with a way to get more accurate predictions based on consistent errors made by certain pollsters the joint arab party is going to be the 3rd largest party with 14 seats, 1 more than bennet and twice as many as liberman. Likud and Avoda tied for first at 24.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13XIAgbVk_c2Zxxa5xsR0EJFb6W9HMQpAjBImtFxZdxo/edit#gid=1038480399

parties to the right still have more seats and Likud is still most likely to lead a coalition but it's starting to reach the point where the only way to consolidate a less than marginal majority would be for Avoda and Likud to form a unity government. If Bibi gets all the center and right parties to go with him and gets Shas on board he'll have 65 seats, conceptually Shas doesn't really play nice with Lapid, Liberman or Bennet but politics does make strange bed fellows.

The numbers in the gray row appearing above the party names is an average of the last 8 polls. Below that you can see the results of specific polls and when they were taken

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13XIAgbVk_c2Zxxa5xsR0EJFb6W9HMQpAjBImtFxZdxo/edit#gid=147760323 this link should be to the sheet without compensating for 'consistent polling errors'

woke wedding drone
Jun 1, 2003

by exmarx
Fun Shoe

Avshalom posted:

Declaring the two-state solution dead is making GBS threads all over the vision that my beloved risked getting himself assassinated for - he only ever got to lay the groundwork, which wasn't his fault at all, but it was a massive step and left no doubt that his heart was totally in it. There is no other feasible solution but the split state. There are lots of other possible solutions, many of which would be ethically preferable, but they don't have a chance of happening.

:smith:

Did somebody try to assassinate Arik other than the snacks he kept in his limo?

Main Paineframe
Oct 27, 2010
Who needs disengagement? Just put the Israeli settlements under Palestinian rule, since they're in Palestinian territory, and allow the residents to move back to Israel if they choose. There's no particular reason to require all the land stolen, confiscated, or unilaterally declared "Israeli-only" by Israelis to stay under Israeli control, other than the fact that Israel has enough diplomatic advantage to demand that. Just because they've occupied it or built checkpoints on it doesn't mean they get to keep it forever, unless they can bully the PA into signing an agreement handing it over. Of course, there's the fears that a Palestinian government might not treat Israeli settlers too well...but it's not like Israeli authorities have exactly been kind to Palestinians either, even in areas which are mutually agreed by both sides to be under Palestinian control. Considering the illegality of many of the settlements, the PA would be perfectly within their rights to expel many of the settlers from the stolen land they live on, but the settlers have no one but themselves (and the Israeli policies that encouraged settlement) to blame for that.

Of course, that's idealistic. In the real world, any significant change in the settlement policy would lead to massive violent outbreaks. Evicting the settlers would lead to civil war, transitioning the settlements to Palestinian control would lead to armed settler revolts that would almost certainly lead to civil war in the West Bank and Israel annexing the settlements by force, and openly claiming large portions of the West Bank or deporting Palestinians or anything like that would trigger Super Intifada 3. And any one of those options would stir up both Israeli and Palestinian terrorist groups and cause massive political upheaval. It's an impossible situation with no easy outs for Israel, and I'd almost be sympathetic if they hadn't caused the problems and gotten themselves into this situation in the first place. The least risky thing Israel can do is continue with the current settlement policy, but that's just kicking the torch down the road, and this road is lined with fuses leading to various powder kegs - the domestic social and political strife in Israel, the building anger and despair of various Palestinian groups, and even the slowly weakening patience of Europe. It's a noose around Israel's neck - no matter which direction they jump, poo poo will get real bad real fast.

loquacius
Oct 21, 2008

I'm pretty optimistic about these poll numbers :allears:

Granted Haaretz might be painting a rosier picture for the Left than it should, but I'm seeing (a) Zionist Union beating Likud, (b) Joint List beating Habayit Hayehudi, and (c) the next biggest parties being Yesh Atid and Kulanu. I'm trying to make it a cautious optimism, but I'm still feeling pretty good about the left's chances.

emanresu tnuocca
Sep 2, 2011

by Athanatos
Liberman's at it again:
http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4635551,00.html

quote:

After Palestinian Authority warns Israeli foreign minister of potential ICC suit, Lieberman says they will 'receive answer when I am defense minister.'

I don't even.

Avshalom
Feb 14, 2012

by Lowtax

emanresu tnuocca posted:

Framing the disengagement as a 'boon' being granted by the Israelis to Palestinians is already a propagandistic way to look at it which does not hold up in the face of scrutiny, for all intents and purposes the ground occupation of Gaza has become untenable as far as the IDF was concerned due to the intensification in Guerrilla warfare within the strip, it was a decision borne out of Israeli 'security rationale'.
no! you're wrong! it was a withdrawal and it was done for world peace and it was a great and beautiful leap forward in human compassion. my anus flowers for you. you will never disengage from the hotly contested ground of my body

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sexpig by night
Sep 8, 2011

by Azathoth

Ah yes the famous, totally not war criminal response of 'bring a suit against me, I'll loving murder you'.

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