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An explicit admission that the two-state solution is dead matters more than the chair-shuffling in the Knesset. It might be a few days before things settle down enough to touch on that again but surely if the charade has been dropped then some kind of explicit policy needs to be articulated about what's supposed to happen to the Palestinians long-term? Are they supposed to eventually become Israeli citizens? No way that'd fly. So is the idea that they'll be permanently occupied second class citizens, especially if the PA collapses? That sounds like the status quo except worse for everyone, so I assume it's the front-runner, but it doesn't really have a strong rhetorical backing. A more right-wing government might start talking openly about finally expelling the Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank but Netanyahu doesn't seem hard right enough to make that his official intent. All I can come up with is now that the election's over he'll walk back the statement to just mean that he doesn't see a two-state solution as likely over the course of his next term so people shouldn't expect it, not that it isn't still the distant goal. While it's clear that Netanyahu and many Israeli politicians haven't been negotiating in good faith so long as the status quo benefits them, maintaining the illusion that they supported the two-state solution suggested they still weren't confident enough in the strength of Israel's position to go overt with their land-grabbing intentions. Rejecting the two-state solution could be a prelude to a brutal ending to the Israel/Palestine conflict, so if Netanyahu sticks to his guns on it even after the vote that'll be a cause for concern.
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Mar 17, 2015 23:59
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The implicit Right wing Israeli assumption seems to be if you make life miserable enough for the Palestinians, they'll just magically disappear. There's no real planning or thinking going on there. That said, I don't think that the open refusal to accept the idea of a Palestinian state is just a temporary thing either. Hell, at the rate settlement is happening in the West Bank that idea is becoming increasingly unfeasible by the day.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:00
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Will the Arab List have no effect on policies despite gaining 13 seats?
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Mar 18, 2015 00:12
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fade5 posted:
Every international politician seems to hate Bibi. He's an rear end in a top hat narcissist with his head far up his own rear end. Dislike for him as a person doesn't necessarily impact relations with Israel. A reset with ZU would change nothing. Nothing has changed for the United State's relations with Israel, beyond a loosening of perceived responsibilities for the Obama administration. fade5 posted:The US has had the "2-state solution" line as official policy for decades, even if it was mostly just lip service. Every single US president from Carter on, regardless of political party, has held the exact same position as a basis of peace negotiation. And then Bibi interrupted Obama one day... fade5 posted:I'm really, really hoping that the next time something UN-related happens the US just abstains from voting, and Israel finally gets to feel what happens when they don't have the US shielding them from the consequences of their actions. That's not going to happen in the next two years. Not a single chance. The Obama administration supports Israel.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:15
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fade5 posted:Congrats to all of you guys/gals for voting. You did your part and tried your damnedest, have no regrets. Yeah, with the 2 state solution being totally demolished now I can see the democrats here in the US moving away from explicit support for Israel over the next few decades since with that deal trashed it's really easy to paint them as the new South Africa and make it stick instead of being met with poo poo like "Israel wants the 2 state deal" which stalled that line of thinking before. That's a loving huge policy change as it was the status qua for the last 20+ years and it's now up in smoke. I really think that Bibi dropping the charade of the 2 state deal means that the US will be willing to finalize a deal with Iran since it's now proven that they are a more rational actor than Israel on the world stage at this point. Way to go Bibi, keep loving that chicken. quote:This honestly the thing I'm really hoping will happen in the next 2 years. The US will not go anti-Israel, but I'm really, really hoping that the next time something UN-related happens the US just abstains from voting, and Israel finally gets to feel what happens when they don't have the US shielding them from the consequences of their actions. Exactly. The US doesn't have to tell Israel to gently caress off, but it doesn't have to keep using up diplomatic currency to save it either.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:22
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OwlBot 2000 posted:Will the Arab List have no effect on policies despite gaining 13 seats? They're still probably going to be ignored, just like always. Maybe except for one nearly impossible scenario: Kulanu refuses to go with Bibi. Bibi can't form a coalition because it will have to include both Lapid and the Haredi and then Herzog can form a coalition but only if it includes the Arab parties. edit: VVVV yeah well like I said, nearly impossible. Senjuro fucked around with this message at 00:28 on Mar 18, 2015 |
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Mar 18, 2015 00:24
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Senjuro posted:They're still probably going to be ignored, just like always. No way they'll sit in any coalition unless themselves and Meretz had like 35 seats each, and even then it's a bit of a stretch. The only thing it'll influence is it might make Bibi's coalition a bit easier to tear down (again) because he needs 2 small parties.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:26
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I like how certain commentators just can't stop comparing Bibi to Churchhill. Of course, there are some similarities. I bet Winston would have been all about leveling the shantytowns of uppity wogs who don't know their place.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:28
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I too believe that Netanyahu's disavowing the two state solution the eve of his reelection is the most significant thing to take from these elections, it was clearly a brilliant move as far as his reelection prospects were concerned but a risky gambit diplomatically, whatever little life remained in the Oslo roadmap has been snuffed out by Bibi this week and this might have considerable repercussions, I do believe that this strips the PA from its de jure legitimacy and as its de facto legitimacy is already most inexistant this has this bears the prospect of a rather rapid collapse and that pretty much sets that clocks back to 1989 only with a shitton more settlers and a couple decades more of frustration among the Palestinian public, frustration which is currently only penned up due to the relative effectiveness of the security mechanism of the PA police state. If the PA collapses a massive intifada as almost a certainty, and my bet is one far more significant and bloody than the previous ones combined. At the moment I really think that the only hope in preventing massive bloodshed within the next few years lies with the Obama administration, not that I truly believe Obama will do anything at all about this whole thing. In general I'm very pessimistic about pretty much everything at the moment, the election results combined with Netanyahu's conduct have made me very gloomy indeed.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:30
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New Division posted:I like how certain commentators just can't stop comparing Bibi to Churchhill. Well they did both use banned weapons against arabs 
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Mar 18, 2015 00:34
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I'm pretty sure a 4th Gaza war is all but inevitable at this point. There won't even be a two year break this time.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:49
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^^^ beatenNew Division posted:I like how certain commentators just can't stop comparing Bibi to Churchhill. Winston Churchill posted:I am strongly in favour of using poisoned gas against uncivilised tribes. The moral effect should be so good that the loss of life should be reduced to a minimum. It is not necessary to use only the most deadly gasses: gasses can be used which cause great inconvenience and would spread a lively terror and yet would leave no serious permanent effects on most of those affected.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:49
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New Division posted:I'm pretty sure a 4th Gaza war is all but inevitable at this point. There won't even be a two year break this time. Why only Gaza.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:49
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The democrats will likely play off Bibi saying two states is dead as "oh well this is a complicated issue that'll need both sides to come together, what Bibi said doesn't help and we sure hope that spontaneously happens!", but if Obama really doesn't like Bibi he can use it to publiclly poo poo talk him some more.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:53
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emanresu tnuocca posted:Why only Gaza. I guess there could be a war in Lebanon too, but I suspect Bibi has no interest in getting sucked into the wider war going on to his north. Now the West Bank... I could see him going to town there too.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:53
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Man that is a lot of fragmentation for the parliament of such a bumfuck country. I'm surprised governments there don't collapse all the time like Italy.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:55
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Peven Stan posted:Man that is a lot of fragmentation for the parliament of such a bumfuck country. I'm surprised governments there don't collapse all the time like Italy. They do. New Division posted:I guess there could be a war in Lebanon too, but I suspect Bibi has no interest in getting sucked into the wider war going on to his north. I'm talking about the west bank.
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Mar 18, 2015 00:57
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DrProsek posted:The democrats will likely play off Bibi saying two states is dead as "oh well this is a complicated issue that'll need both sides to come together, what Bibi said doesn't help and we sure hope that spontaneously happens!", but if Obama really doesn't like Bibi he can use it to publiclly poo poo talk him some more. If he's smart, he's just going to let it sit. It's the worst for Israel and the best for Obama on so many levels. e: of course, Obama is pro-Israel and thus is likely to gently caress up even worse than Netanyahu did. Bethamphetamine fucked around with this message at 01:17 on Mar 18, 2015 |
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Mar 18, 2015 00:57
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gently caress, I think this is the first time I've been angry enough about election results in another country that I just feel like getting drunk right now.
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Mar 18, 2015 01:29
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Zerilan posted:gently caress, I think this is the first time I've been angry enough about election results in another country that I just feel like getting drunk right now. Well it's Saint Patrick's Day, so go enjoy a drink special at your local dive bar.
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Mar 18, 2015 01:32
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The exit polls aren't really that far off what most of the projections were? Likud took seats from their coalition partners and Yachad may not make it, so the balance of power is actually better. So basically everyone's assuming that Kahlon is going to go Likud. I don't think that's fair at all, unless they do something like can Netanyahu for Saar. If we're assuming that especially Kulanu and possibly Yesh Atid will be open to Netanyahu, then you can't dismiss out of hand the possibility of Joint List in a coalition (maybe break it apart and have some of the parties join), or even Lapid somehow making peace with Shas since it's not like Israel will ever not stomp all over secular rights to pander to Haredim.
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Mar 18, 2015 01:34
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The official vote totals are showing a solid Likud win rather than a tie. 
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Mar 18, 2015 01:36
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Elotana posted:The official vote totals are showing a solid Likud win rather than a tie. I wouldn't be surprised if Likud outperforms the exit polls. I think there was a pretty big surge of last minute support on the Israeli right. The coalition haggling might take a while, but I still think Netanyahu is going to end up being the next prime minister, for better or worse. Most likely worse.
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Mar 18, 2015 01:40
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New Division posted:I wouldn't be surprised if Likud outperforms the exit polls. I think there was a pretty big surge of last minute support on the Israeli right. To be fair there was very little chance of it not happening anyway, the left bloc is just too small.
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Mar 18, 2015 01:42
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Kim Jong Il posted:The exit polls aren't really that far off what most of the projections were? Likud took seats from their coalition partners and Yachad may not make it, so the balance of power is actually better. So basically everyone's assuming that Kahlon is going to go Likud. I don't think that's fair at all, unless they do something like can Netanyahu for Saar. No the blocs aren't significantly different, but we secretly hoped that they would be somewhat better, and now that Netanyahu controls 28 seats all on his own he has a lot more flexibility when it comes to assembling a coalition and is not likely to gently caress it up, and since Yachad weren't really that likely to play nice with Shas there was a marginal hope that there was enough leeway for Herzog to perhaps prevent Netanyahu from actually forming a coalition, which really doesn't look like it's going to happen. Netanyahu right now needs Kahlon and one of either Lapid or the Ultra Orthodox, given that Bennet and Liberman are now his political thralls. Herzog would need Kahlon, Lapid and the Ultra Orthodox and that's a very tall order.
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Mar 18, 2015 01:47
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fade5 posted:This honestly the thing I'm really hoping will happen in the next 2 years. The US will not go anti-Israel, but I'm really, really hoping that the next time something UN-related happens the US just abstains from voting, and Israel finally gets to feel what happens when they don't have the US shielding them from the consequences of their actions. Not only will that not happen for all the normal reasons, Ambassador Power would never go along with it as it would sink her chances at any position that requires a confirmation vote in the next administration.
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Mar 18, 2015 01:59
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Elotana posted:The official vote totals are showing a solid Likud win rather than a tie. Yes it's terrible, actually quite the landslide victory - real time updates here: http://www.votes20.gov.il/nationalresults 67.7% tallied, 24.12% in favor of Likud, 19.3% Herzog, that's an 8 seat advantage for Netanyahu. only 8.6% to the joint list. gently caress this poo poo.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:04
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man, that's soul crushing.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:05
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Could there be any election Fuckery going on, or is this just a sincere reflection of the Democrats Spirit of Israel? If it is, then 
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Mar 18, 2015 02:09
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fade5 posted:The US will not go anti-Israel, but I'm really, really hoping that the next time something UN-related happens the US just abstains from voting, and Israel finally gets to feel what happens when they don't have the US shielding them from the consequences of their actions. Getting rid of the U.S. veto protection of Israel was the plot of last year's miniseries "The Honourable Woman". Even the TV writers understood that it would take a hell of a lot more than a reneged promise from the PM to bring that state about.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:10
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Despite the completely horrible election results, the chaotic Israeli parliamentary system is pretty exciting to follow. What's the fun of two parties when you could have intrigue, bargains, alliances, and backstabbing between a dozen of them!
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Mar 18, 2015 02:14
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Pitiful voter turnout in the Arab cities, around 40% in most. Lower than average turnout in most "leftist strongholds", Tel-Aviv and Haifa with 60% each, 7% less than the national average. Seems like higher than average turnout in the settlements with more than half voting Likud there. I mean, the arabs I can understand, they have their reasons, I respect that, I do not agree with them and wish that they voted but whatever, but what the gently caress about the rest, why must the left bleed 5-6 seats every election due to lower turnouts. Pathetic.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:17
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So how boned are the Palestinians, on a scale of "relatively safe" to "dead culture walking"? Or is Bibi going to keep them around so his constituents can have someone to be afraid of?
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Mar 18, 2015 02:18
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emanresu tnuocca posted:Yes it's terrible, actually quite the landslide victory - real time updates here: http://www.votes20.gov.il/nationalresults Israeli polling companies seem to have hosed up in the election runup. I thought there would be a last minute Likud surge but that's just ridiculous.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:18
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TwoQuestions posted:So how boned are the Palestinians, on a scale of "relatively safe" to "dead culture walking"? Or is Bibi going to keep them around so his constituents can have someone to be afraid of? I don't think he really gives a poo poo either way as long as he stays in power.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:21
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Zero_Grade posted:Despite the completely horrible election results, the chaotic Israeli parliamentary system is pretty exciting to follow. What's the fun of two parties when you could have intrigue, bargains, alliances, and backstabbing between a dozen of them! At least the Israeli left actually has parties they can vote for? I'd choose that over the US system of "Right wing corporatists or Republicans" any day.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:21
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Well at least now with 67.9 tallied the Joint Arab List is back to being the third largest party with 9.36%. poo poo am I going to refresh that page all night.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:25
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Count appears to be nearing a close... looks like Likud is going to end up with at least 30 seats.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:45
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New Division posted:Count appears to be nearing a close... looks like Likud is going to end up with at least 30 seats. If all American elections were called with 68% of the vote in you'd have a lot more Republicans in Congress. Likud is likely to lose a bit and ZU likely to gain a bit as the biggest districts come in. The exit polls were probably accurate.
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Mar 18, 2015 02:54
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SNAKES N CAKES posted:If all American elections were called with 68% of the vote in you'd have a lot more Republicans in Congress. Likud is likely to lose a bit and ZU likely to gain a bit as the biggest districts come in. The exit polls were probably accurate. I was looking at the polls with 90 percent of the vote in, actually. https://twitter.com/Nehemia_G/status/578010679048704001
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Mar 18, 2015 02:57
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