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If I had to guess, the big threat Obama is waving at Bibi (and also the most likely result of any softening of the United States' pro-Israeli stance at the U.N.) is a further move towards Palestinian statehood/recognition. And if/when that happens, it's a whole different ballgame.
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Mar 19, 2015 17:48
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My Imaginary GF posted:Obama loses Jewish support for the Democratic party, that's the effect. Obama is in over his head and has no idea what to do other than flail around with disasterous foreign policy adventurism, dipping his hand in before looking elsewhere when things don't go his way. Ugh, you're such a bibi.
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Mar 19, 2015 17:50
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My Imaginary GF posted:a nuclear first-strike in the other. Yes, this is also how I bargain with people at yard sales, with tree fiddy in one hand and a Glock in the other
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Mar 19, 2015 17:50
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Given how we're all kinda down from the election results would it be too much to ask for a pick me up in the form of a week long probation for Bibi's goon persona?
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Mar 19, 2015 17:55
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emanresu tnuocca posted:Ugh, you're such a bibi.
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Mar 19, 2015 17:56
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My Imaginary GF posted:Obama loses Jewish support for the Democratic party, that's the effect. Obama is in over his head and has no idea what to do other than flail around with disasterous foreign policy adventurism, dipping his hand in before looking elsewhere when things don't go his way. Dude, either you're trolling or insane at this point. There is no way, literally 0% that the various things Netanyahu did in order to secure his re-election will not lead to the long term damage of Israel. Disavowing a two state solution? In public? On paper? He's not even going to try anymore? I don't know where you're coming from on this issue, or what your alternative to a two state solution is, but please at least acknowledge there will be some negative repercussions for Israel in the long term from this election.
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Mar 19, 2015 18:06
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Does it even matter if Bibi is for or against a Palestinian state? He has no coalition without that psychopath Bennett and all he has to do is threaten to leave and all negotiations stop dead in their tracks.
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Mar 19, 2015 18:09
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My Imaginary GF posted:Obama loses Jewish support for the Democratic party, that's the effect. Obama is in over his head and has no idea what to do other than flail around with disasterous foreign policy adventurism, dipping his hand in before looking elsewhere when things don't go his way. Dems don't even need the Jews anymore; they win in NY even without the Zionist vote, and can win the general without Florida.
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Mar 19, 2015 18:12
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:Dude, either you're trolling or insane at this point. There is no way, literally 0% that the various things Netanyahu did in order to secure his re-election will not lead to the long term damage of Israel. Say what you will about Netanyahu, he offered the Israeli voter a plan for the future, which the other parties cannot match. That plan may have been a ripoff of Republican strategy, it is still a plan and a vision for a future. What alternative agenda did Herzog offer? Clearly, not one which resonated with Israeli voters. Two-state has been dead for a while; to recognize this in policy going forward is pragmatic conservatism. There will be another clash of violence in the near future because Israelis and Palestinians have no hope for a peaceful future. That clash will likely result in leftwing and populist nations implementing sanctions on Israel in order to appease the street. That will only intensify the violence as it moves further back the dynamics for a two-state solution, and eventually, a one-state solution becomes the most expedient option to pursue. Miltank posted:Dems don't even need the Jews anymore; they win in NY even without the Zionist vote, and can win the general without Florida. Dems need the Jewish donor base if they want to win elections. Voters are only worth so much per vote; contributions are far more important than single votes, as contributions allow parties to reach far more votes. My Imaginary GF fucked around with this message at 18:16 on Mar 19, 2015 |
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Mar 19, 2015 18:14
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Senjuro posted:Does it even matter if Bibi is for or against a Palestinian state? He has no coalition without that psychopath Bennett and all he has to do is threaten to leave and all negotiations stop dead in their tracks. None of this matters unless Obama decides to make it matter. This is literally all about whether Netanyahu gets to be honest about his intentions or is required to lie about them, given that he already flip-flopped it's safe to say that Obama really threw the full weight of the united states into this burning conundrum and decided that Netanyahu is gonna have to keep lying, unless it's too inconvenient for him, Obama is not an unreasonable man after all and Israel has been such a good ally, common values, the such. 
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Mar 19, 2015 18:15
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My Imaginary GF posted:Say what you will about Netanyahu, he offered the Israeli voter a plan for the future, which the other parties cannot match. That plan may have been a ripoff of Republican strategy, it is still a plan and a vision for a future. Two State may have been dead for a while, but Bibi specifically pandered to far right voters in Israel to win. His winning is not a sign that he has a clear plan, but a sign that he is more willing to express his blatant hatred and vitriol more openly.
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Mar 19, 2015 18:18
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Senjuro posted:Does it even matter if Bibi is for or against a Palestinian state? He has no coalition without that psychopath Bennett and all he has to do is threaten to leave and all negotiations stop dead in their tracks. it takes away a lot of fig leafs in international relations there's a lot of keeping up appearances - it's actually very useful to be able to say "yes we're working towards this solution, but we just can't seem to agree" and kick back and booze and whore your way through work right now, bibi is just doing the boozing and whoring publicly, which is bad form
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Mar 19, 2015 18:20
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The Insect Court posted:I get the part where you accuse MIGF of being a fifth columnist with dual loyalties who treacherously favors Israel over America(not exactly a fresh sort of accusation around these threads), but is it the assassination of the PM of Israel you're calling for in the second sentence? Or some other world leader? The assassination of MIGF, actually. Chuy automatically wins the election if Rahm gets exploded. 
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Mar 19, 2015 18:35
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My Imaginary GF posted:Say what you will about Netanyahu, he offered the Israeli voter a plan for the future, which the other parties cannot match. That plan may have been a ripoff of Republican strategy, it is still a plan and a vision for a future. Luckily, a fresh, new, exciting politician by the name of Benjamin Netanyahu disagrees with you about the nature of the two state solution, and it's viability: http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/20/world/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-elections-palestinian-state.html quote:“I haven’t changed my policy,” Mr. Netanyahu said in the interview, his first since his resounding victory on Tuesday, which handed him a fourth term. “What has changed is the reality.”
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Mar 19, 2015 18:35
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dorkasaurus_rex posted:Luckily, a fresh, new, exciting politician by the name of Benjamin Netanyahu disagrees with you about the nature of the two state solution, and it's viability: Goddamn, hook a turbine up to that flip floppin
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Mar 19, 2015 18:37
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Kajeesus posted:It's not like we haven't seen similar rhetoric in the US, which isn't even a nation founded on ideas of racial/ethnoreligious supremacy. Senator John C. Calhoun of South Carolina, on January 4, 1848, posted:We have never dreamt of incorporating into our Union any but the Caucasian race—the free white race. To incorporate Mexico, would be the very first instance of the kind, of incorporating an Indian race; for more than half of the Mexicans are Indians, and the other is composed chiefly of mixed tribes. I protest against such a union as that! Ours, sir, is the Government of a white race. Cat Mattress fucked around with this message at 18:53 on Mar 19, 2015 |
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Mar 19, 2015 18:42
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It's real dumb to expect significant change from Obama, and of course Hillary is going to write him a blank check; but perhaps this election result will give the BDS movement a shot in the arm.
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Mar 19, 2015 18:52
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emanresu tnuocca posted:None of this matters unless Obama decides to make it matter. This is literally all about whether Netanyahu gets to be honest about his intentions or is required to lie about them, given that he already flip-flopped it's safe to say that Obama really threw the full weight of the united states into this burning conundrum and decided that Netanyahu is gonna have to keep lying, unless it's too inconvenient for him, Obama is not an unreasonable man after all and Israel has been such a good ally, common values, the such. Although it's implied rather than explicitly stated, if the US is willing to disregard his statements because he was saying it as a politician running for reelection, things would be different if he weren't. If anybody in his government qualified to speak on such matters says anything opposing a two state solution, it's going to be taken at face value with no takebacks. Still he might be able to take it back if it's someone like Bennett by kicking him out of the coalition but that's his problem, not Obama's.
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Mar 19, 2015 18:54
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So as a couple of days ago I said that election fraud usually isn't such a big deal in Israel... well, I mean it's not time to put on the tinfoil hats yet but a story has been making the rounds in the Israeli social media today which might be of some interest. In the ballot at the kibbutzim of Eliphaz and Samar the official observer published the voting results as they were counted by the local committee, they skewed heavily towards the left with 82 votes going to the Zionist Union and 60 votes going to Meretz out of a total of 194 voters. Liberman got exactly 3 votes.  Strangely enough, on the official tally on the website of the central voting committee, Meretz received a grand total of 0 votes, while Liberman received 60, as seen here: http://votes20.gov.il/cityresults?cityID=1156 (ל signifies Liberman votes, מרץ for Meretz votes). Somewhat peculiar. And I'm still very curious as to why Liberman received thousands of votes in the Druze towns though that is more likely attributed to simple bribery.
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Mar 19, 2015 18:55
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My Imaginary GF posted:the most impactful leadership on foreign policy is conducted with an olive branch in one hand, and a nuclear first-strike in the other. Caption: THIS IS WHAT NEO-CONS ACTUALLY BELIEVE
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Mar 19, 2015 19:27
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Lum_ posted:Caption: THIS IS WHAT NEO-CONS ACTUALLY BELIEVE MIGF is both a potent troll and a warning of what could be.
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Mar 19, 2015 19:28
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emanresu tnuocca posted:So as a couple of days ago I said that election fraud usually isn't such a big deal in Israel... well, I mean it's not time to put on the tinfoil hats yet but a story has been making the rounds in the Israeli social media today which might be of some interest. We had a pirate party?
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Mar 19, 2015 19:37
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Do you think insect court is upset that he's no longer the reigning troll gimmick of the I/P threads
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Mar 19, 2015 20:07
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Actual leadership out of Obama would be not letting Netanyahu "walk back" his comments about busing Arabs and opposing Palestinian statehood. Yes, these were election ploys meant to siphon off right wing votes, but they also veer Israel even further to the right and toward a future where these thoughts reach their "logical conclusion". The two-state solution might be a charade at this point, but it at least describes a commonly acceptable vision for the future - Israeli and Palestinian states, side by side, sovereign and at peace. A whole lot of politicians work to undermine this goal for their own advantage or work at cross-purposes to bring it about, but once it becomes acceptable for the Israeli government to publicly stop paying even lip service to the idea of a Palestinian state then the question of what the new endgame should be opens up. None of the answers we'd get are very encouraging. Abandoning the two-state solution publicly might be a more honest reflection of how things are going at the moment, but things are going poo poo and shouldn't be embraced. If America doesn't make it clear that this change in objectives is unacceptable then the next time an election rolls around Israeli politicians will be openly running and winning on Palestinian expulsion.
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Mar 19, 2015 20:35
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emanresu tnuocca posted:First comments from Abbas regarding 'no-two-states'gate - http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4638890,00.html He's giving Netanyahu an "out", giving him room to change his position without looking like he's backing down or giving in. It's quite a good move when dealing with a right-winger like Netanyahu who's built his image around looking like a tough guy, actually - pressuring him directly on the claim might force him to double down on it to avoid looking weak, but a vague "oh gosh I hope he didn't really say that" response gives Netanyahu room to pivot to something less extreme. Normally I'd say it's kind of a naive move, but after a strong election performance like that, Netanyahu can absolutely afford to throw Abbas that bone without fearing domestic retribution or a far-right flare-up.
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Mar 19, 2015 20:42
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Main Paineframe posted:He's giving Netanyahu an "out", giving him room to change his position without looking like he's backing down or giving in. It's quite a good move when dealing with a right-winger like Netanyahu who's built his image around looking like a tough guy, actually - pressuring him directly on the claim might force him to double down on it to avoid looking weak, but a vague "oh gosh I hope he didn't really say that" response gives Netanyahu room to pivot to something less extreme. Normally I'd say it's kind of a naive move, but after a strong election performance like that, Netanyahu can absolutely afford to throw Abbas that bone without fearing domestic retribution or a far-right flare-up. Yeah, but will that make Netanyahu actually work towards a two-state solution? What benefit is there to going back to false pretenses over dealing with Bibi's actual intentions toward Palestine otherwise?
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Mar 19, 2015 20:56
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Kajeesus posted:Yeah, but will that make Netanyahu actually work towards a two-state solution? What benefit is there to going back to false pretenses over dealing with Bibi's actual intentions toward Palestine otherwise? The major rift is that an Iran that is an imminent nuclear weapon power is considered the same to Israel and Congress as a nuclear Iran, but not so to Obama. Israeli security policy with regards to Gaza or the West Bank is a bargaining chip in discussing the more important rift between Israeli-Obama policy.
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Mar 19, 2015 20:59
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My Imaginary GF posted:The major rift is that an Iran that is an imminent nuclear weapon power is considered the same to Israel and Congress as a nuclear Iran, but not so to Obama. Israeli security policy with regards to Gaza or the West Bank is a bargaining chip in discussing the more important rift between Israeli-Obama policy. Awww, you think the rift is because of that? That's cute.  Also: One already nuclear armed nation being upset about another nation not nuclear armed. Man, it would just ruin your day if Iran and Israel were MAD compatible.
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Mar 19, 2015 21:01
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Zelder posted:Do you think insect court is upset that he's no longer the reigning troll gimmick of the I/P threads MIGF is him but honest.
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Mar 19, 2015 21:17
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Kajeesus posted:Yeah, but will that make Netanyahu actually work towards a two-state solution? What benefit is there to going back to false pretenses over dealing with Bibi's actual intentions toward Palestine otherwise? It might save the PA, as that kind of understanding might lead to a mutual back-off on the pressure both sides are exerting on each other. Probably not, but it's possible! More relevantly, it is absolutely critical to Abbas' political position. He's built his political career on peaceful, nonviolent negotiation with Israel; he's spent decades pushing for Palestinians to lay down their arms and pursue an exclusively diplomatic route to ending Israeli occupation. If Israel stops even bothering to pretend that a diplomatic solution is possible, his position becomes rather precarious.
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Mar 19, 2015 21:17
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Lum_ posted:Caption: THIS IS WHAT NEO-CONS ACTUALLY BELIEVE Nah Neo-Cons are fair weather liberals who wring their hands about human rights and war crimes when it suits them politically. They would never be willing to detonate a couple nukes in the middle east to show the world where this is going to end.
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Mar 19, 2015 21:41
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Main Paineframe posted:It might save the PA, as that kind of understanding might lead to a mutual back-off on the pressure both sides are exerting on each other. Probably not, but it's possible! Sure, but at a certain point you'd expect a person who claims to be the legitimate leader of his people to care about more than his own political survival, the PA is an ancient beast, it's true that it loses all legitimacy without an official 'peace process' taking place but surely Abbas recognizes that his administration can no longer offer his people any real hope, he's went beyond 'allowing Israel to procrastinate' into allowing them to make an independent Palestine an impossibility. I would like to think that Abbas is not 100% cynical and useless, every once in a while he vocalizes statements that demonstrate that there might be life in him yet but the more time passes I lose faith. As an Israeli I obviously do not wish to see a Hamas controlled west bank, but Abbas is proving himself to be a burden upon his people and nothing but a collaborationist, he needs to either step down or step up, his time is running out rapidly. Edit, also this: 
emanresu tnuocca fucked around with this message at 22:01 on Mar 19, 2015 |
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Mar 19, 2015 21:54
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So is the Kahanist party getting wiped from the Knesset a good thing because they're Jew Nazis, or bad because the ruling coalition has become rightwing enough to appeal to their former voters? e: Looks like they didn't previously have any seats anyway, and were just slated to get 4 on the poll estimates. Schizotek fucked around with this message at 22:25 on Mar 19, 2015 |
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Mar 19, 2015 22:16
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My Imaginary GF posted:Dems need the Jewish donor base if they want to win elections. Voters are only worth so much per vote; contributions are far more important than single votes, as contributions allow parties to reach far more votes. You have previously claimed that it is anti-Semitic to assume Jewish political donors are pro-Israel. Conclusion: MIGF is an avowed anti-Semite.
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Mar 19, 2015 22:17
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eSports Chaebol posted:You have previously claimed that it is anti-Semitic to assume Jewish political donors are pro-Israel. Conclusion: MIGF is an avowed anti-Semite. You don't have to be pro-Israel to understand Obama's Iran appeasement policy as a political failure and liability against engendering hope towards a two-state solution.
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Mar 19, 2015 22:22
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Schizotek posted:So is the Kahanist part getting wiped from the Knesset a good thing because they're Jew Nazis, or bad because the ruling coalition has become rightwing enough to appeal to their former voters? They didn't pass the threshold in the 19th knesset either, the Kahanists have had a very rough time electrorally since the original party was banned and Kahane himself got murdered, unless you're a hardcore accelerationist you should generally consider outright racists who wish to detonate the Al Aqsa Mosque and rebuild the Third Temple not getting any real power a good thing. The only reason they had a realistic chance to get past the threshold this time around was cause they were joined by Eli Yishai who's been the leader of the Shas movement up until recently, he's actually never been close to them ideologically so it was a weird match.
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Mar 19, 2015 22:28
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Bibi can say he totally embraces the two-state solution, but he's going to continue to undermine it in practice. For one thing, the settlement expansion is going to continue in the West Bank. Big time. He owes his re-election to the settlers and he knows it.
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Mar 19, 2015 22:47
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My Imaginary GF posted:You don't have to be pro-Israel to understand Obama's Iran appeasement policy as a political failure and liability against engendering hope towards a two-state solution. You just posted a couple of pages back that a two-state solution will/should never happen and an apartheid state should be Israel's de-facto goal, you lying piece of poo poo. I'm still holding out hope that Obama is going to overtly strip Israel of U.N. cover and allow through Palestinian statehood recognition. I think Obama can make a strong argument even to American Jews and other pro-Israeli democrats that doing so is essentially the only way to save Israel from Likud extremism at this point. If major international action (which will, as is usually the case, need to be U.S. led) isn't forthcoming, a collapse of the P.A. is inevitable. Apartheid and ghettoization is one thing, but if the IDF and settlers start straight-up mass murdering in response to another intifada, then crushing Russia-style economic sanctions will be the tamest response Israel can expect from the world at large. In that eventuality, I don't think that covert military aid from western Europe to HAMAS is out of the realm of possibility. Military aid from other Middle-east countries would be a near-certainty.
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Mar 19, 2015 23:02
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New Division posted:Bibi can say he totally embraces the two-state solution, but he's going to continue to undermine it in practice. For one thing, the settlement expansion is going to continue in the West Bank. Big time. He owes his re-election to the settlers and he knows it. You know, the thing is that he doesn't owe them jack poo poo and he would have won even if they all voted for the Jewish Home instead. That's perhaps indicative more than anything else that Bibi well and truly believed that he might lose, cause unless consolidating those 4-5 seats from the Jewish Home into Likud was of paramount importance of itself disavowing from the two state solution prior the elections had no real electoral meaning, it's not like Herzog could have courted the Jewish Home under any circumstance, those seats were in Bibi's pocket whether they went to Bennett or to him, the most difference this currently makes is that there will be one less minister from the Jewish Home and an extra one from Likud, it's a trivial distinction. And what's most confusing about this whole thing is those Jewish Home voters who down right forgot how parliamentary elections work and genuinely thought it was super important that they vote directly for Likud instead of to the guy who was going to join a Likud coalition no matter what. Oh and by the way, to further befuddle this whole thing, some leftist bloggers claim that after reviewing the voter demographics for Likud/Jewish-Home in the current elections and the previous ones there actually wasn't a widespread migration of settlers\"national-religious" voters from JH to Likud this time around but that in the previous elections Bennett managed to draw a surprising number of secular likud voters who simply went back to voting Likud in these ones. I haven't these numbers presented in any conclusive form myself though.
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Mar 19, 2015 23:06
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Main Paineframe posted:It might save the PA, as that kind of understanding might lead to a mutual back-off on the pressure both sides are exerting on each other. Probably not, but it's possible! If Abbas hadn't pacified the west bank, there be no way that you'd be seeing the NYT come out against Netanyahu
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Mar 19, 2015 23:31
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