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If Bush wants a good shot at the general election after winning the primary he should just throw a socially liberal curveball like call for gay marraige in all 50 states.
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Mar 25, 2015 16:24
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I wouldn't count out any Governor who won their re-election bid unless they've already declined. The only current GOP governor who I don't think will run and if he does, will fold quickly, is my Governor, Pence. Dude was supposed to be nearly uncontested in 2012 and Indiana went 56% or something like that for Romney. Pence ran against a Dem candidate with some horrible, joke campaign ads but closed the deal near the end within 3 points so Pence only won with 49.2% of the vote.
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Mar 25, 2015 16:24
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notthegoatseguy posted:I wouldn't count out any Governor who won their re-election bid unless they've already declined. The only current GOP governor who I don't think will run and if he does, will fold quickly, is my Governor, Pence. Dude was supposed to be nearly uncontested in 2012 and Indiana went 56% or something like that for Romney. Pence ran against a Dem candidate with some horrible, joke campaign ads but closed the deal near the end within 3 points so Pence only won with 49.2% of the vote. How much of that was collateral damage from Richard "rape babies as gifts from God" Mourdock, though?
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Mar 25, 2015 16:25
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Yeah, Pence is not a good retail politician and he was running in a presidential year. Team Obama already had an established ground game in Indiana and Murdock was a drag on the state ticket. Pence also probably got lazy and figured he had it in the bag.
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Mar 25, 2015 16:27
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Scrub-Niggurath posted:If Bush wants a good shot at the general election after winning the primary he should just throw a socially liberal curveball like call for gay marraige in all 50 states. How to win a general election as a Republican. Step 1. Depress evangelical turnout. Step 2. ????
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Mar 25, 2015 16:30
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Jeb Bush is doing his first fundraiser of the year today. And he's got a special guest!
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Mar 25, 2015 16:33
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Pinterest Mom posted:How to win a general election as a Republican. Exactly. The best you can hope for from the GOP on marriage equality is simply not making it a plank issue. If the GOP doesn't have the religious right to counter the die-hard democrat vote, they have no path to victory. They need to keep their base energized while reaching out to independents. It's going to be the same-old-same-old party of Fiscal responsibility / tax cuts platform.
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Mar 25, 2015 16:40
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DaveWoo posted:Jeb Bush is doing his first fundraiser of the year today. And he's got a special guest! You gotta own that poo poo, or no one will respect you.
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Mar 25, 2015 16:53
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mcmagic posted:It was pretty clear how terrible he was when he got reelected and then reelected again. In a blue state. This is pretty bullshit reductionism, there is a lot more too it. Bad opponents, poo poo loads of money, etc. Public opinion of him within Wisconsin has been dropping, especially with all the budget bullshit. Plus don't underestimate the negative effect of being a national laughingstock
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Mar 25, 2015 17:31
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gently caress You And Diebold posted:This is pretty bullshit reductionism, there is a lot more too it. Bad opponents, poo poo loads of money, etc. Public opinion of him within Wisconsin has been dropping, especially with all the budget bullshit. Plus don't underestimate the negative effect of being a national laughingstock And he won't have bad opponents and a ton of money in the GOP primary? Also the reasons you think he's a national laughingstock don't really apply to GOP primary voters and most people not involved in left wing politics.
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Mar 25, 2015 17:35
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mcmagic posted:And he won't have bad opponents and a ton of money in the GOP primary? Also the reasons you think he's a national laughingstock don't really apply to GOP primary voters and most people not involved in left wing politics. He's a national laughingstock because he literally used the word "punt" when asked a question about a subject he didn't want to give an opinion on. He also thinks that facing down protesters in Wisconsin somehow prepares him to face ISIS, something I'm sure that guys like Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and (lol) Lindsey Graham will kick his rear end for. If you don't think Walker is a prime candidate for a "duhhhhhhh" moment in a debate that sinks his campaign then you are WAY too far down the fear rabbit hole. Walker is popular right now because he's Generic Republican #1349532210. But put him on a national stage, force him to express opinions about things, and I guaran-loving-tee you he will start alienating people in a hurry. He's not facing Tom Barrett in a recall or Mary Burke in a midterm. If winning as a Republican in a blue state guaranteed you the Presidency, Mitt loving Romney would be President right now. He's going up against fundraising juggernauts both in the GOP primary and (if he miraculously survives the meat grinder and wins the nomination), he'll more than likely end up getting shredded by Hillary Clinton, who will have just as much money and a WHOLE lot more panache. Fritz Coldcockin fucked around with this message at 17:55 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 17:50
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Dietrich posted:Exactly. The best you can hope for from the GOP on marriage equality is simply not making it a plank issue. If the GOP doesn't have the religious right to counter the die-hard democrat vote, they have no path to victory. They need to keep their base energized while reaching out to independents. It's going to be the same-old-same-old party of Fiscal responsibility / tax cuts platform. The Supreme Court is going to force it to be legalized in 3 months and seeing as there is no chance at a constitutional amendment I think the GOP will just ignore it.
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Mar 25, 2015 17:59
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Three Olives posted:The Supreme Court is going to force it to be legalized in 3 months and seeing as there is no chance at a constitutional amendment I think the GOP will just ignore it. Actually that raises an interesting point, if this comes to pass (as I agree it is likely to on a 5-4 ruling), you're probably going to see some rhetoric about judicial activision and taking back the supreme court to protect "are values".
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Mar 25, 2015 18:29
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DaveWoo posted:Jeb Bush is doing his first fundraiser of the year today. And he's got a special guest! You know, I have this sick fascination about how Jeb could use W as a weapon to rile the GOP base. We know that the conservative modus operandi now is to demonize the other side, and double down on your poo poo policy, no matter how irrational or unproductive. You've got a two-term president who's your brother, who served right before Obama, who's been turned into the GOP antichrist. You've got a base that's fairly well-convinced that Obama has achieved no good things during the past six years, and absolutely, positively cannot be convinced by any fact or argument that any other version of reality could be true. You have a country that, during Obama's presidency, has been utterly destroyed, if you're a true believer, by Obamacare, gay marriage, and literally any other policy that Obama's managed to squeak out. But most importantly, the actual feel of the economy has been really, really lovely for a lot of people. We may know that it's due to structural problems and GOP obstructionism etc, etc, but try to convince a self-identifying conservative that it WASN'T Obama's fault. Remember the 2000s? When America got attacked, and patriotism reached such a fever-pitch? When we unironically had freedom fries, and two wars, and we got to see Saddam Hussein humiliated and killed? And when the Hummer became popular, and liberals were fuming mad because they were lovely, whiny assholes about ARE PRESIDENT? Remember when everyone was proud to be an American, and if you were a Republican, you KNEW you were on the winning team, and Obama hadn't yet crashed the financial markets and ruined America's reputation around the world? Now, imagine how electrifying it would be to go to the 2016 Republican National Convention, and see and hear the voice of the man who made it all possible, with a backdrop of only the most heart-stirring, pride-inducing highlights from his term: TAX CUTS, prosperity, American military dominance, and scorn for liberals. He has held his tongue while his successor, the evil Obama, destroyed the nation, because he's a man of honor. But now he's back, and here he is, the great president you remember, with that face and that accent, and that swagger that you remember from back when your life was GOOD. And his brother is running?! I will be stunned, SHOCKED, if W is not used in this exact way, and can guarantee you there won't be a dry eye in the entire stadium as every conservative crazy in the convention is struck by how noble, how great, how.... Truly American their president once was, and how far they have allowed themselves to fall in the last eight years, through their lassitude and insufficiently intense conservatism. To see that man and hear that voice after eight years in exile will be like manna in the desert to the GOP, like a loving miracle. All they have to do is play it right.
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Mar 25, 2015 18:49
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Jeb Bush pens op-ed accusing Iran of "campaign of terror" and "treachery", calls for "firm alliance" with Israel So much for being the moderate foreign policy voice in the GOP. Quidam Viator posted:To see that man and hear that voice after eight years in exile will be like manna in the desert to the GOP, like a loving miracle. Sure. And it'll be like poison to moderate/independent voters. DaveWoo fucked around with this message at 19:27 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 18:53
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DaveWoo posted:
Are we still pretending that the GOP has reformed itself and its outlook on appealing to moderates after McCain and Romney lost, the GOP did a post-mortem that suggested that they moderate their views, and then they spent six years just getting crazier and more extreme? Is there some policy point that indicates that they care at all about the middle? I mean, no duh George W is poison to anyone even moderately sane. What's your point? Are you saying that scenario wouldn't work for the GOP base?
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Mar 25, 2015 18:57
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An interesting analysis / projection, but do you have any polling on that? I can't find anything past 2008, and the polling at that time was (appropriately) dismal.
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Mar 25, 2015 18:59
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I could almost hear the squealing of the GQ writer who thought up calling Ben Carson the Tea Party's "Great White House Hope". (a few pages back, from http://www.gq.com/news-politics/newsmakers/201504/ben-carson-tea-party)
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Mar 25, 2015 19:01
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Cognac McCarthy posted:Has Andy Borowitz ever written anything remotely funny in his life?
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Mar 25, 2015 19:03
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Dietrich posted:Actually that raises an interesting point, if this comes to pass (as I agree it is likely to on a 5-4 ruling), you're probably going to see some rhetoric about judicial activision and taking back the supreme court to protect "are values". 6-3, maybe even 7-2, I'm pretty confident that Roberts is at very least going to vote in favor.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:03
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DaveWoo posted:Sure. And it'll be like poison to moderate/independent voters. I cannot imagine seeing George W. Bush on TV and hearing that voice again, for the last couple years of his presidency he was widely seen as a laughingstock and an embarrassment to the U.S.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:04
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Quidam Viator posted:Are we still pretending that the GOP has reformed itself and its outlook on appealing to moderates after McCain and Romney lost, the GOP did a post-mortem that suggested that they moderate their views, and then they spent six years just getting crazier and more extreme? the thing with the Middle is that a lot of them (specifically the white part) aren't turned off by extremist policy, they're turned off by extremist attitude. They're likely banking on the idea that they can make a platform hard-right enough to rev up their base while persuading the middle to vote for it by presenting it in a manner that sounds ~reasonable to white suburbanites and professionals, particularly the ones that vote for supposedly moderate republicans in their gubernatorial and senate elections but have backed obama/clinton at the national level. You'll see increasing appeals to capital-D Data, even more attempts to paint Obama as the extremist who has broken the government by refusing to compromise, increasing adoption of libertarian rhetoric without corresponding adoption of libertarian policies PupsOfWar fucked around with this message at 19:11 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 19:09
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Chamale posted:I cannot imagine seeing George W. Bush on TV and hearing that voice again, for the last couple years of his presidency he was widely seen as a laughingstock and an embarrassment to the U.S.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:09
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 quote:Bobby Jindal loves to work out. I find this hilarious.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:09
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Quidam Viator posted:Are we still pretending that the GOP has reformed itself and its outlook on appealing to moderates after McCain and Romney lost, the GOP did a post-mortem that suggested that they moderate their views, and then they spent six years just getting crazier and more extreme? I'm not saying anything except that a general election campaign predicated on "Miss Me Yet?" would be a disastrous failure for the GOP. This ain't 1980, and there isn't a conservative "silent majority" anymore. If there is such a "silent majority" nowadays, it'd consist mainly of people whose formative political experiences came during the Clinton, Bush, and Obama presidencies - and I guarantee you most people will remember two of those presidencies a whole lot more fondly than the third.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:12
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DaveWoo posted:Jeb Bush pens op-ed accusing Iran of "campaign of terror" and "treachery", calls for "firm alliance" with Israel You thought a Bush was going to be a moderate foreign policy voice? Every potential Republican is going to have the creaking, old Neocon machine trying to get in the door and set up their long-awaited invasion of Iran, but the Bush family is that machine. A Jeb Bush presidency would treat Obama's two terms as America's recovery period before launching a fresh round of Middle East ground invasions, we're talking re-occupying Iraq and Afghanistan at the minimum with high odds on invading Syria and Iran, with American soldiers holding contiguous territory from the Mediterranean to China's western border.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:14
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Three Olives posted:
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Mar 25, 2015 19:21
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DaveWoo posted:Jeb Bush pens op-ed accusing Iran of "campaign of terror" and "treachery", calls for "firm alliance" with Israel Just as a warning, I sent this link to my wife, who is on a Mac in Safari and it launched something that completely hijacked the computer. Had to unplug from the Internet, reset Safari, and reboot the computer to get control back. So, um...National Review is terrible.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:24
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DaveWoo posted:I'm not saying anything except that a general election campaign predicated on "Miss Me Yet?" would be a disastrous failure for the GOP. Hey, I agree with you. I don't think it creates a viable path to the White House. I just think that it would be a piece of political showmanship that the GOP would actually use, if Jeb were the candidate. It's called doubling down. Hell, they had Clint Eastwood shout at an empty chair. How much credit are you giving them for having a real strategy for winning the middle? PupsOfWar posted:the thing with the Middle is that a lot of them (specifically the white part) aren't turned off by extremist policy, they're turned off by extremist attitude. The part about "capital-D Data" is the part I find hardest to believe. That requires stuff like intellectual rigor, and a willingness to have your opinions changed by fact. Are we just having a disagreement about how pragmatic the GOP will actually be, come general election season? It's true that while people were in it, the end of the Bush administration was lovely, but it's been 6 years, and all anyone can talk about on here is how short people's political memories are, especially if they're not DnD posting types, and how easily every single attack against the GOP can be turned around into a benefit with a little wordplay. We play this game allllll day long, like this: Radish posted:I REALLY hope that someone brings up "wants to make you work seven days a week" against Walker in the primaries (or god forbid the actual election) since that's just hilariously evil. Gyges posted:No, no. I want to let you work seven days a week without having to justify it to the government. Why should the government determine how much you can work when you want to pick up an extra shift at Walmart? It's just that Rovian school of jujitsu. And for those in the "middle", I genuinely believe they can make a Potemkin Village out of W that would make people nostalgic for the times before the 2008 financial crisis, not on facts, but on feelings. But hey, I say a lot of wrong stuff. Quidam Viator fucked around with this message at 19:29 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 19:24
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thrawn527 posted:Just as a warning, I sent this link to my wife, who is on a Mac in Safari and it launched something that completely hijacked the computer. Had to unplug from the Internet, reset Safari, and reboot the computer to get control back. Huckabee's new money making scheme: hijacking computers for bitcoins
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Mar 25, 2015 19:27
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thrawn527 posted:Just as a warning, I sent this link to my wife, who is on a Mac in Safari and it launched something that completely hijacked the computer. Had to unplug from the Internet, reset Safari, and reboot the computer to get control back. Uh, yikes. Changed the link to something hopefully not as malware-laden. Dolash posted:You thought a Bush was going to be a moderate foreign policy voice? I didn't, but I've heard others claim that.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:29
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Quidam Viator posted:WORDS I don't think republicans love the Bush days anywhere near as much as you think. Sure the far-far right crazies do, but even for a lot of middle of the road republicans (white guys who care about the "economy and strong defense," but are't losing sleep over gay people being allowed to marry), Bush was and is a debacle. It's anecdotal but I was talking to a friend yesterday who identifies as a registered republican with libertarian leanings (I know), voted for Bush twice, but now says that he'd probably vote for Hillary over another Bush. That's how bad Bush was for the republican brand, and a lot of them know it. The party on the far right is batshit insane, but there are plenty of white male Republicans who don't care about social issues so much as the economy and if you offer them Bush vs. Clinton, they're at least going to pause and consider. Karnegal fucked around with this message at 19:34 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 19:32
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mcmagic posted:It was pretty clear how terrible he was when he got reelected and then reelected again. In a blue state. Wisconsin is not a blue state. Madison is not Wisconsin. Hell, the only reason Jim Doyle beat Scott McCallum back in 2002 was because Tommy Thompson's brother ran as a libertarian and split the conservative vote because the Thompson name was so popular. This is in no way the same state as it was when Bob La Follette was governor. Edit: Seriously, outside of the Doyle aberration from 2002-10, Republicans have had a hold on the governor's mansion for forever, and the time of Fightin' Bob and the progressives was literally a hundred years ago. The only thing stopping Wisconsin from becoming the Alabama of the north is Madison and Milwaukee, and even they have widespread problems, Madison especially in how it likes to pat itself on the back for supposedly being a progressive paradise despite something like 80 percent of the homeless population being black and the average age of a homeless person being nine years old. Timby fucked around with this message at 19:50 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 19:36
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That lying son a bitch has never done a leg day in his life. Look at those pipe cleaners.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:43
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Quidam Viator posted:Are we still pretending that the GOP has reformed itself and its outlook on appealing to moderates after McCain and Romney lost, the GOP did a post-mortem that suggested that they moderate their views, and then they spent six years just getting crazier and more extreme? No, we're saying that the base isn't going to win you elections. If you scare away those fence-sitters, you'll end up with a Goldwater-sized portion of the vote.
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Mar 25, 2015 19:47
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Timby posted:Wisconsin is not a blue state. Madison is not Wisconsin. Hell, the only reason Jim Doyle beat Scott McCallum back in 2002 was because Tommy Thompson's brother ran as a libertarian and split the conservative vote because the Thompson name was so popular. This is in no way the same state as it was when Bob La Follette was governor. Even if you want to argue that, it's still a fact that the state voted for Obama twice and Walker has governed in a way FAR to the right of the state's electoral spectrum while getting re-elected twice. It seems foolish to dismiss him especially with his support from all the different coalitions within the GOP. He seems to me to be the candidate most likely able of uniting that party. mcmagic fucked around with this message at 20:01 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 19:58
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Alter Ego posted:No, we're saying that the base isn't going to win you elections. If you scare away those fence-sitters, you'll end up with a Goldwater-sized portion of the vote.  Also, putting in the opposite scenario, we see that the electoral map does favor the Democrats, 2000 nonwithstanding. 
SpiderHyphenMan fucked around with this message at 20:36 on Mar 25, 2015 |
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Mar 25, 2015 20:01
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notthegoatseguy posted:I wouldn't count out any Governor who won their re-election bid unless they've already declined. The only current GOP governor who I don't think will run and if he does, will fold quickly, is my Governor, Pence. Dude was supposed to be nearly uncontested in 2012 and Indiana went 56% or something like that for Romney. Pence ran against a Dem candidate with some horrible, joke campaign ads but closed the deal near the end within 3 points so Pence only won with 49.2% of the vote. Rick Scott. Without a Florida Democratic Party run candidate in an off year to just barely beat, ol' Voldemort has no chance. A Rick Scott candidacy only wins at immediately becoming the dream candidate of all Democrats to be up against.
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Mar 25, 2015 20:35
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Sorry for not getting this, but what specifically are those two maps meant to show?
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Mar 25, 2015 20:48
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Quidam Viator posted:Sorry for not getting this, but what specifically are those two maps meant to show? Hypothetical best and worst cases for electoral college votes given today's political environment?
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