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Full Battle Rattle posted:Primaries are a magical time, when anything can happen. Last time we got a black guy, people were flipping out, it was pretty rad Fair enough - I guess it's also possible for a democratic candidate to come out of the woodwork and challenge Hillary for the Democratic nomination. It will be interesting to watch anyway. I always enjoy the multi-candidate primary debates for their insanity. It's kinda like watching a really really condensed season of Survivor with supporting and backstabbing the name of the game.
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Apr 13, 2015 06:55
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Tercio posted:Bad news, Hillary. Biden's got an ace up his sleeve... Hahaha, how has this fat bastard not been blackballed from political organizing for life?
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Apr 13, 2015 07:17
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Brian Boyko is the one honest man on the internet.
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Apr 13, 2015 07:20
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Oh dear lord, I...I didn't know And now you do. SporkOfTruth posted:Hahaha, how has this fat bastard not been blackballed from political organizing for life? I want to believe people recognize a useful idiot when they see one, but I honestly believe there are quite a lot of idiots in positions of power.
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Apr 13, 2015 07:22
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PotatoManJack posted:Fair enough - I guess it's also possible for a democratic candidate to come out of the woodwork and challenge Hillary for the Democratic nomination. It's common for there to be surprises in crowded fields with no clear frontrunner like the republicans are currently looking at, but 2008 is literally the only time that an obvious "probable nominee" was upset. The establishment candidate pretty much always wins. e.g. Ford vs. Reagan, Carter vs. Kennedy, Mondale vs. Hart, Romney vs. Santorum
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Apr 13, 2015 07:27
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I yearn for The Onion's coverage on Bill and Biden's crazy adventures.
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Apr 13, 2015 08:24
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Omi-Polari posted:Then 2014 happened and the Republicans in Texas gained among the Latino vote. You mean that when you shrink the voting turnout, the numbrr of Republicans becomes a larger percentage? WITCHCRAFT I SAY!
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Apr 13, 2015 08:28
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eternalname posted:It's common for there to be surprises in crowded fields with no clear frontrunner like the republicans are currently looking at, but 2008 is literally the only time that an obvious "probable nominee" was upset. The establishment candidate pretty much always wins. Obama was only an "underdog" because the media and right wing talksphere had spent so long sneering at his community organizer background they managed to convince themselves that being a young charismatic man with experience gathering grassroots organizations was somehow a detriment to his campaign. Turns out organizing communities immediately translates into organizing voters, which DUH. Obviously that translated really well to the general but in the primaries expecially it was deadly, dude laid down organizations overnight with no pre-existing infastructure on a miniscule budget compared to Hilary and tapped groundsweels of support in the small gaps between polls and voting, catching Hilldog by suprise in every single state. It was pretty awesome to watch, also theres no one in the republican field with the ability or background to do anything even close to that sooooo But, to note, someone rich is bankrolling the gently caress out of Cruz as a spoiler, probably more effective to put money in his pocket to force Jeb to the right rather than give directly to Jeb for influence since he already has gently caress you money, its gonna be fun to watch him blow it all on attack ads and crypto evangelical pandering without gaining any significant ground in polling. Spaceman Future! fucked around with this message at 08:36 on Apr 13, 2015 |
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Apr 13, 2015 08:30
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Tercio posted:This example from a paid political operative is all I think of. I thought you guys were talking about the swimmer.  It was better when I thought it was the swimmer.
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Apr 13, 2015 09:17
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SporkOfTruth posted:Hahaha, how has this fat bastard not been blackballed from political organizing for life? If you go further down the page, you'll see him "disclose" that his previous disclosure was a little misleading... 
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Apr 13, 2015 09:44
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Full Battle Rattle posted:Jeb isn't a lock on the R side. The Republican party is crazy fractured and there's a chance they might put up a real lunatic. jeb's a lock precisely because the rest of the party is fractured if the base could unite around one joke candidate by fall he might have a chance against jeb, or at the very least force the megadonors to spend a little more than they had anticipated in the primary. but that's not likely to happen same thing happened to mitt last time. everyone flitted back and forth between the clown of the week, and all romney had to do was throw out a little cash in a few primaries to head off any possible challenge
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Apr 13, 2015 10:33
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Barracuda Bang! posted:If you go further down the page, you'll see him "disclose" that his previous disclosure was a little misleading... I wish I could get paid linking PACs to twitter bootstrap.
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Apr 13, 2015 12:34
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Omi-Polari posted:Then 2014 happened and the Republicans in Texas gained among the Latino vote. (Compared with 2012, not 2010, where Democrats still did better than before)
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Apr 13, 2015 12:43
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Primary quote of the day: "I wish her well in this race and I look forward to being able to stay well away from it.” - John Kerry, on Clintons entry into the presidential race.
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Apr 13, 2015 12:57
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eternalname posted:Is there any chance huckabee will run? huckadon't
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Apr 13, 2015 13:02
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comes along bort posted:jeb's a lock precisely because the rest of the party is fractured I don't think Jeb's as easy of a choice as Mitt Romney. There were a lot of R's who didn't care for what the Bush years did to the party, and W's still so unpopular he generally doesn't show his face in public. He seems the most likely candidate, I'll give you that, but I don't see it as a lock.
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Apr 13, 2015 13:52
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Barracuda Bang! posted:If you go further down the page, you'll see him "disclose" that his previous disclosure was a little misleading... No really, I have trouble believing after he got humiliated on SA, he still uses his real name on Reddit to browse pony porn subreddits and talk about politics. And that's not to mention his ancient "I want to beat up kids because they piss me off" posts on a New Zealand board. e: then again the dude's been signing poo poo off under his real name since usenet was a thing so. Jerry Manderbilt fucked around with this message at 14:33 on Apr 13, 2015 |
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Apr 13, 2015 14:17
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Jerry Manderbilt posted:No really, I have trouble believing after he got humiliated on SA, he still uses his real name on Reddit to browse pony porn subreddits and talk about politics. And that's not to mention his ancient "I want to beat up kids because they piss me off" posts on a New Zealand board. Can you change your username on reddit? If not, then he probably has a ton "invested" in that user account (karma, or whatever they do there) and he does not want to lose it. And besides, he got made fun of on SA. How many people are going to search his name and find that thread? I mean, they should, because it's amazing, but it's a low probability. Or he's an idiot. Probably the latter.
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Apr 13, 2015 14:21
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Drastic Actions posted:Can you change your username on reddit? If not, then he probably has a ton "invested" in that user account (karma, or whatever they do there) and he does not want to lose it. And besides, he got made fun of on SA. How many people are going to search his name and find that thread? I mean, they should, because it's amazing, but it's a low probability. Yeah, honestly the beginning of that thread (not sure what reddit calls them \\\garbage\r\* or something maybe) has people thanking him for being so forthcoming with his disclaimer despite being a high-powered DC insider. I believe they were sincere.
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Apr 13, 2015 14:51
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Martin O'Malley releases a quick "hey, I still exist" video. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6dHH_UL1Fc
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Apr 13, 2015 14:57
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Full Battle Rattle posted:I don't think Jeb's as easy of a choice as Mitt Romney. There were a lot of R's who didn't care for what the Bush years did to the party, and W's still so unpopular he generally doesn't show his face in public. He seems the most likely candidate, I'll give you that, but I don't see it as a lock. You're right. The reason Mitt had a relatively easy time in 2012 is that there was no alternative to him. Perry was supposed to be the credible alternative, and would have given Romney a real challenge, but then.... And speaking of Rick, here's his latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFajaxSYM3U
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Apr 13, 2015 15:04
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Romney also had the advantage of having honed his presidential campaigning skills/software for about a decade by 2012. It remains to be seen how Jeb will perform, since he's been out of the game for awhile.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:09
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ssbbud posted:Romney also had the advantage of having honed his presidential campaigning skills/software for about a decade by 2012. It remains to be seen how Jeb will perform, since he's been out of the game for awhile. This seems like the biggest deal to me. Romney was kind of pathetic in his own way but he was trying hard to be a campaigner, to be a presidential candidate, to articulate a vision, as hosed-up as it was. Jeb Bush was also governor of Florida, and Florida, while politically important, is generally regarded as terminally hosed-up by the rest of the country. There's nothing that Bush has done that's recognizable that isn't tied to W, and there's no position he has that isn't articulated better and more credibly (read: crazily) by other Republicans.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:17
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Spaceman Future! posted:Obama was only an "underdog" because the media and right wing talksphere had spent so long sneering at his community organizer background they managed to convince themselves that being a young charismatic man with experience gathering grassroots organizations was somehow a detriment to his campaign. Turns out organizing communities immediately translates into organizing voters, which DUH. Obviously that translated really well to the general but in the primaries expecially it was deadly, dude laid down organizations overnight with no pre-existing infastructure on a miniscule budget compared to Hilary and tapped groundsweels of support in the small gaps between polls and voting, catching Hilldog by suprise in every single state. It was pretty awesome to watch, also theres no one in the republican field with the ability or background to do anything even close to that sooooo Yeah, it's been pointed out before that the keys to a modern campaign, the data collection, entry and mining, the community organizing and networking, the focus on linking together small personal relationships to build a groundswell, that stuff is really incompatible with the Republican operative career path. And there is a basic republican career path which the democrats lack. Sign on with them as a college republican, they have a system of training opportunities, intern opportunities, networking events, and the like to give you a leg up. It is a very career organized setup and it has worked well for them. With the democrats it's very haphazard and a smattering of vaguely associated groups might reach out to you, but there is nothing like the systemic, driven approach the GOP has for people who want in. But that approach flies in the face of the low status, frankly tedious, stuff that makes up the core of the Obama style campaign. They aren't interested in getting you to meet as many business owners and local politicians as possible, they want you to spend time building personal relationships on the sub precinct level so to can pop those small clusters, or get people to pivot because they k ow you. They want you to spend time crunching numbers on a computer instead of shaking hands at the chamber of commerce, because then you know where to go to have the most impact. Post 2012 the Kich's have sunk a lot of money into paying republican operatives to do what OFA volunteers did, because it is so at odds with the GOP approach. We will see how that works out
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Apr 13, 2015 15:23
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I don't have a good count on this yet, but Hillary is already way ahead on the delegate count, having several with the rest of the field stuck at zero.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:25
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Has Hillary won yet.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:26
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Fairly certain after getting the rug pulled from under her in 2008 she has taken a family member of any potential candidate as a hostage to ensure she gets in unopposed.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:28
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She should probably make sure someone runs to her right so she can define herself. I don't know, maybe I have that backwards. She has to excite Ds and Is to go out and vote though if she doesn't want to be impeached February 2017.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:29
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ssbbud posted:Romney also had the advantage of having honed his presidential campaigning skills/software for about a decade by 2012. It remains to be seen how Jeb will perform, since he's been out of the game for awhile. Jeb is a skilled politician that was smart enough to make his name known without making too many waves. He was also also probably complicit in mass voter fraud and disenfranchisement, I doubt the dude will have much of a problem making a few primary votes swing his way. Obdicut posted:This seems like the biggest deal to me. Romney was kind of pathetic in his own way but he was trying hard to be a campaigner, to be a presidential candidate, to articulate a vision, as hosed-up as it was. Jeb Bush was also governor of Florida, and Florida, while politically important, is generally regarded as terminally hosed-up by the rest of the country. There's nothing that Bush has done that's recognizable that isn't tied to W, and there's no position he has that isn't articulated better and more credibly (read: crazily) by other Republicans. Nah, for a fair majority of the country Florida is just where Disneyworld is I wouldn't for a second think that his experience there could work against him. I mean, people keep backing politicians from Texas of all godforsaken places so.. yeah no biggie.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:30
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eternalname posted:It's common for there to be surprises in crowded fields with no clear frontrunner like the republicans are currently looking at, but 2008 is literally the only time that an obvious "probable nominee" was upset. The establishment candidate pretty much always wins. Hillary's 08 'inevitability' has also become more and more exaggerated as time goes on. Charliegrs posted:I think even later into the election cycle than this in 07/08 everyone thought it was going to be Hillary Clinton and Rudy Guliani. Candidate predictions this early are such a crap shoot. They were the forerunners in polling at this point I think but anyone with a brain knew Rudy didn't have a chance. If there was going to be another Obama this time we'd already have heard of him/her. tsa fucked around with this message at 15:42 on Apr 13, 2015 |
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Apr 13, 2015 15:31
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euphronius posted:She should probably make sure someone runs to her right so she can define herself. You think it'll take that long? I can see them trying to drum something up between the election and inauguration.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:38
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Rubio just announced. Let me quote the story in full.quote:WASHINGTON (AP) — Marco Rubio says he is running for president, feels 'uniquely qualified' to talk about future. And that was the announcement.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:56
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AP is reporting that Rubio is running for President.  edit: beaten, so have a picture of sad Marco. 
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Apr 13, 2015 15:56
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duz posted:You think it'll take that long? I can see them trying to drum something up between the election and inauguration. Impeaching someone for something done before being President is a bit much even for Republicans. You've got to wait at least a day and then bring down the hammer for how Hillary brazenly committed the US to war with the UK by viciously assaulting their ambassador's feet during a dance.
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Apr 13, 2015 15:58
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tsa posted:Hillary's 08 'inevitability' has also become more and more exaggerated as time goes on. Yeah people forget that Obama was a shining star and already had super hype. There was never a question of whether he would run, people just assumed that it would be in '12 or '16 though. Hillary was only considered "inevitable" as a default since the rest of the field that people considered realistic for that year were pretty weak. Sorry Biden  Its not like the GOP has some inevitable contender waiting in the wings getting rep at this point though, unless some charismatic Billionaire with mass appeal, an anti Romney if you will, has been hiding in a cabin to keep his aspirations a secret (which would kinda be counter-intuitive when the entire idea of a campaign is to you know, self promote) what you see right now is what we are getting. A second generation career politician and son of a perpetual joke candidate who wants people to think he is an outsider  , A dude who rebranded himself with hipster glasses, A Cuban Canadian Texan Tea Party newly minted Evangelical who the establishment would probably just straight up literally murder if he took more than one primary, I <3 Scampaining, Future Candidate Jeb Bush, future Jeb Bush Proxy in case of heart attack Marco Rubio, and then the extras to make the stage feel more lively.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:00
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He makes a good point, you don't want some other thing distracting from your campaign:
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Apr 13, 2015 16:00
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William Bear posted:He makes a good point, you don't want some other thing distracting from your campaign: The only think less exciting than the Rubio announcement is the Mets playing baseball ever.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:05
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There is actually big news in the AP story:quote:His political advisers have told party leaders that they should start recruiting a candidate to run for his Senate seat.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:08
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Joementum posted:There is actually big news in the AP story: Rubio is going all or nothing political suicide on the executive? He must have a pretty cushy tv deal in the works.
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Apr 13, 2015 16:11
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Spaceman Future! posted:The only think less exciting than the Rubio announcement is the Mets playing baseball ever. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18caPNisP2U
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Apr 13, 2015 16:12
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