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I hope Trump sticks to his rhetoric and his poll numbers remain steady.
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Jul 7, 2015 03:36
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Miltank posted:I hope Trump sticks to his rhetoric and his poll numbers remain steady.
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Jul 7, 2015 03:37
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He's going to go there personally, film himself firing them and put it in an ad. He will surge to the lead.
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Jul 7, 2015 03:39
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Even Polk wasn't this anti-Mexican.
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Jul 7, 2015 03:40
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Does anyone even pay attention? Not all Mexican's crossing the border are rapists, SOME of them are good people...who do you think Trump hired? Cut the man some slack.
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Jul 7, 2015 03:50
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he assumes.
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Jul 7, 2015 03:52
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Joementum posted:Sorry. Looks like Gaga's spoken for too.
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Jul 7, 2015 03:53
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Yaaaaas
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Jul 7, 2015 04:04
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:It is pretty funny reading all the posts about how Bernie has no chance at all, while the bible of Very Seriousness the New York Times is publishing articles about Hillary possibly losing Iowa six months before the caucus. you should bet one of the worst of the bernie faithless like i did
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Jul 7, 2015 04:35
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Miltank posted:I hope Trump sticks to his rhetoric and his poll numbers remain steady. Here in the midwest it looks like his xenophobic and racist ranting has really found a cachet with suburbanites around St. Louis
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Jul 7, 2015 04:37
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Joementum posted:Sorry. Looks like Gaga's spoken for too. Is that a fake smile she throws on for all the photo ops and she has a more convincing sincere smile, or is the rictus her sincere smile? I don't like harping on how candidates look, but Hillary always looks like she's trying to bluff her way away from Jehova's Witnesses while simultaneously noticing one of them has poo poo on their face.
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Jul 7, 2015 04:41
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Weltlich posted:Is that a fake smile she throws on for all the photo ops and she has a more convincing sincere smile, or is the rictus her sincere smile? I don't like harping on how candidates look, but Hillary always looks like she's trying to bluff her way away from Jehova's Witnesses while simultaneously noticing one of them has poo poo on their face. Fake:  Real: 
JT Jag fucked around with this message at 04:46 on Jul 7, 2015 |
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Jul 7, 2015 04:43
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Weltlich posted:Is that a fake smile she throws on for all the photo ops and she has a more convincing sincere smile, or is the rictus her sincere smile? I don't like harping on how candidates look, but Hillary always looks like she's trying to bluff her way away from Jehova's Witnesses while simultaneously noticing one of them has poo poo on their face. Of all things you nitpick a smile. It's a drat photo-op everyone has a fake smile.
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Jul 7, 2015 04:46
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Zwabu posted:This rollout campaign for the Walker logo reminds me of the old Simpsons episode where "Gabbo" was relentlessly hyped, and turned out to be a ventriliquist dummy act. In fairness, Walker would be somewhat electable if he could do the Hully-Gully
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Jul 7, 2015 04:51
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Cythereal posted:Better than the candidate promising to burn everything down. It is better to appropriate the right's concept of 'creative destruction' - but making the process public and democratic instead of private and commercial. For example merging all federal healthcare programs into a single payer option. As for Nixon-Eisenhower - they are two men who epitomize the presidency as a modern institution - 70% good 30% bad. Nixon at the end was what happens when you live too long in that world - you forget life as a human outside the bubble. Bernie is the only candidate talking about multiple part time jobs and being vibrant human beings. We have the technology - I just hope Mr. Sanders gets over the rush of whipping up crowds with slogans and does more talks like that gun control video. Mc Do Well fucked around with this message at 05:10 on Jul 7, 2015 |
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Jul 7, 2015 05:02
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All of my smiles are fake smiles.
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Jul 7, 2015 05:05
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JT Jag posted:Calling them angry freakouts is a mite excessive. A lot of people in this thread are going to vote for Bernie in the primary and hope he does well. Some of those same people are irked by "Bernie or No One" sentiment. most pro-bernie comments i see follow the same tack as his campaign where they don't even mention hillary, just how great he is
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Jul 7, 2015 05:24
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Relentlessboredomm posted:Come watch the Daily Show stream with us in the Month of Zen thread and I promise you'll see things my way. Now watch this drive. I wasn't implying that Bush 43 was smart, it seems like his brother might be even dumber.
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Jul 7, 2015 05:29
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computer parts posted:I have yet to see evidence that PA is a real swing state. I'm going off of this map: This is a more realistic map to me:  Including all lean blues and reds as won. Not a bad position to start from. Basically her job will be to just not gently caress up too badly over the next 15 months.
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Jul 7, 2015 05:46
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baw posted:I wasn't implying that Bush 43 was smart, it seems like his brother might be even dumber. I know what you were trying to say. As a former Floridian forced to suffer through JEB! I disagree. Jeb! isn't the sharpest tool in the shed but no one in the family can hold a candle to the sheer magnitude of W's blissful, willful ignorance.
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Jul 7, 2015 05:52
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Cigar Aficionado posted:Not a bad position to start from. Basically her job will be to just not gently caress up too badly over the next 15 months.
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Jul 7, 2015 05:54
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Relentlessboredomm posted:I know what you were trying to say. As a former Floridian forced to suffer through JEB! I disagree. Jeb! isn't the sharpest tool in the shed but no one in the family can hold a candle to the sheer magnitude of W's blissful, willful ignorance.
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Jul 7, 2015 06:03
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McDowell posted:
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Jul 7, 2015 06:36
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Relentlessboredomm posted:I know what you were trying to say. As a former Floridian forced to suffer through JEB! I disagree. Jeb! isn't the sharpest tool in the shed but no one in the family can hold a candle to the sheer magnitude of W's blissful, willful ignorance. I think Bush is a lot more clever than he ever gets credit for, tbh.
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Jul 7, 2015 06:43
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McDowell posted:As for Nixon-Eisenhower - they are two men who epitomize the presidency as a modern institution - 70% good 30% bad. The gently caress you say? I'll admit not knowing enough about Eisenhower to say whether he was good or bad aside from warning all of us about the dangers of the military-industrial complex as he left office, but not doing much to halt it while he was in, but Nixon is at the very least the most evil modern president, which is an impressive achievement when the list includes Reagan and George W. Air Skwirl fucked around with this message at 06:52 on Jul 7, 2015 |
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Jul 7, 2015 06:46
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I think Bush is a lot more clever than he ever gets credit for, tbh.
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Jul 7, 2015 06:46
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My heart wants to believe that Virginia has reached a point where it leans blue, but it's hard for me to accept that things have shifted to that point already. Granted, I live pretty well isolated in my bubble of South Florida and know little about the reality of shifting demographics elsewhere. VA feels just marginally bluer than FL, but in both states it likely comes down to which side runs the more effective get out the vote/voter suppression campaign. Also, someone brought up 2000 in the last few pages. I know a good bunch of people that voted for Nader in 2000. Most of them are still horrified by their votes. My psychiatrist would literally shudder if you brought up that election. My mom convinced herself that she accidentally voted for Buchanan, too. No idea if she really did. JEB's one strength in Florida was that his demeanor was so bland and inoffensive that despite largely lovely policy, the Democratic base was not motivated to turn out and kick him out of office. It's a shame our gubernatorial elections always fall during midterm elections, and so many other state elections fall in odd years.
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Jul 7, 2015 06:49
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He isn't below average but for a president yeah he's a moron.
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Jul 7, 2015 06:49
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Nessus posted:I think W. wasn't a really articulate guy, and was probably on the dimmer side for a President, but wouldn't actually be below average if tested. My impression is less outright stupid and more completely lacking any intellectual curiosity. Content to shrug and let someone else worry about facts and details. Which is kind of worse.
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Jul 7, 2015 06:53
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Skwirl posted:The gently caress you say? I'll admit not knowing enough about Eisenhower to say whether he was good or bad aside from warning all of us about the dangers of the military-industrial complex as he left office, but not doing much to halt it while he was in, but Nixon is at the very least the most evil modern president, which is an impressive achievement when the list includes Reagan and George W. It's a Mao reference as best I can tell.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:08
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Here are the 10 closest states from 2012, their EVs, who won them, the margin of victory, the projected demographic shift from that chart I posted earlier, and what that margin would have been in 2016 after projected demographic shifts NC 15 R 2.04% -1.7% -> R 0.3% FL 29 D 0.88% +1.6% -> D 2.5% OH 18 D 2.98% +0.6% -> D 3.6% VA 13 D 3.87% +1.6% -> D 5.5% CO 09 D 5.37% +0.8% -> D 6.2% PA 20 D 5.39% +1.2% -> D 6.6% NH 04 D 5.58% +1.2% -> D 6.8% IA 06 D 5.81% +0.7% -> D 6.5% NV 06 D 6.68% +1.9% -> D 8.6% WI 10 D 6.94% +1.1% -> D 8.1% Romney got 206 EVs in 2012 including NC. Republicans need to hold NC, plus get FL, OH, VA, and CO in order to get past 270, which means outperforming their 2012 numbers by at least 6.2%. The only way I see that happening is if 1) the Republican candidate is a transcendent popular figure (really unlikely, given their candidate pool) or 2) the Democratic candidate's campaign ends up being a complete mess (always possible, I guess), or 3) some outside event (foreign policy disaster, economic meltdown, massive scandal, etc.) overrides the usual demographics-plus-turnout modeling of the election (literally unpredictable). P.S. Just for laughs, here are the states that the Dems could pick off (besides NC) if they have an uncommonly good night in November 2016 GA 16 R 7.82% -2.5% -> R 5.3% AZ 11 R 9.06% -2.3% -> R 6.8% MO 10 R 9.38% -1.1% -> R 8.3% IN 11 R 10.2% no shift published because drat that's a big margin Outside of NC, there's just not much low-hanging fruit out there for the Dems, even with the steady grind grind grind of demographic change. FMguru fucked around with this message at 07:18 on Jul 7, 2015 |
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Jul 7, 2015 07:12
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spacing in vienna posted:My impression is less outright stupid and more completely lacking any intellectual curiosity. Content to shrug and let someone else worry about facts and details. Which is kind of worse.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:14
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It still perplexes me that Obama won IN in 2008 but it wasn't even really in play come 2012 and it's not in play now.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:23
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Daniel Bryan posted:It still perplexes me that Obama won IN in 2008 but it wasn't even really in play come 2012 and it's not in play now. I figure Obama did some early polling in 2012, saw the numbers, and committed exactly 0 dollars and 0 staffers to it for the rest of the campaign.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:26
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Daniel Bryan posted:It still perplexes me that Obama won IN in 2008 but it wasn't even really in play come 2012 and it's not in play now.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:28
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FMguru posted:I'm more surprised it has 11 EVs. Indianapolis must be a bigger city than I realized. Second largest state capital. Plus NW Indiana is part of the Chicago Metro area.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:29
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Daniel Bryan posted:It still perplexes me that Obama won IN in 2008 but it wasn't even really in play come 2012 and it's not in play now. 2008 was kind of a perfect storm of things that worked in Obama's favor as well as the D party at large. You had a terrifically unpopular president leaving office and his party's record of deregulation and fiscal incompetence was being blamed whole-handedly by all honest Americans. Then out comes Obama, pretty much the best orator since Clinton if not as good or better. You had a lot of people who were just hitting voting age in 2008, so they were born in 89-90 and saw their early childhood turn to poo poo under Bush and the R party's control from 2002 on, and Obama capitalized on that in earnest. His campaign used volunteers, tech, and data in ways that remain miraculous. Basically a LOT of people who weren't the typical D voter went for Obama in 2008, and there were quite a few of those split-ticket scenarios (see NE-02).
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Jul 7, 2015 07:30
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Skwirl posted:The Clothes Have No Emperor is a pretty funny take down on Reagan, and speaking as someone born in 84 I think it gave me a pretty good insight into what American culture was like in the 80s. Catching up on this thread; from the sample chapter posted the general theme seems to be "Regan and the 80's  ". Any suggestions for something that explores why the right practically worships this guy? Being born in the 80's doesn't mean I remember them.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:30
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TasogareNoKagi posted:Catching up on this thread; from the sample chapter posted the general theme seems to be "Regan and the 80's He was a senile old yes-man for the racist, jingoist id of the conservative movement. Reagan was stage-managed from the top of his empty head to the toes of the shoes he forgot each morning. They love him because he campaigned on telling America that none of the poo poo Carter said about America needing to adapt to a post-industrial world was true and that he'd make sure we'd bomb and space our way to owning the planet.
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Jul 7, 2015 07:34
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TasogareNoKagi posted:Catching up on this thread; from the sample chapter posted the general theme seems to be "Regan and the 80's He simultaneously distanced the GOP from Nixon (who was the only Republican elected in nearly 25 years) and set the tone for Republican Presidents (and arguably political culture in general) for the next 30+ years. His closest parallel is Andrew Jackson, and I don't just mean in the "lol he's racist" sense. Rather, Jackson also set the tone for the next few decades in America, and had people comparing themselves to him. More importantly, he did this without waging a war, which sets him apart from FDR and Lincoln (the other two "massively influential" Presidents).
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Jul 7, 2015 07:36
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