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ToxicSlurpee posted:He's just playing it down. There were totally actually 30,000 people in that 4,000 capacity room. I have spoken to "noone" who happened to be there, and by his estimate, the whole population of the continental united states was in that room when Trump walked in. Again, according to my friend "noone", Trump gave a speech so brilliant that all the problems were fixed, the blind can now see and the paralysed can now walk. At the end of the speech, Trump flew away much like Superman and went to muscle China into giving the US better deals.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:53
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Feather posted:Politics in the black community (disclaimer: clearly a generalization here, blacks aren't a hive-mind, obviously) is different due to certain historical considerations. For example, the church figures largely in many places because of the deep roots it has back into the days of slavery. Leaders are well respected, and community members take their endorsements very seriously. You realize that this is incredibly insulting towards and patronizing of black people, right? That they're just duped by their leaders, who are either corrupt or bamboozled by the sly whitewoman, Hillary? Job Truniht posted:I'm saying you're admitting the data is extremely unreliable to say that pregnancy and birth rates are uncorrelated. Pregnancy and birth rates are very strongly correlated. quote:Pregnancy is too socially stigmatized to be represented accurately. The original argument that it has a significant impact on overall high school academic impact is bunk. It's a meaningless non-number that holds no validity on its own, and with it comes the attachment of "we need to do more studies" that everyone puts at the end of their conclusion. Something that affects one out of a hundred students--which is an incredibly conservative estimate--would be significant. quote:On the other hand, the benefits of college being women consistently outperform men on GPA to a statistically significant degree. Your grammar and word choice make your posts really hard to read.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:55
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Earlier in this thread someone mentioned that they thought the "Democratic Establishment" was upset Sanders was running. I think its the opposite, they are happy he is running. Clinton needs someone so she can contrast herself as the centrist candidate and Sanders is perfect for that. Trump and Republicans is different because Trump actually embarrasses the national brand and if the things he says get associated with "Republicans" that hurts them with voters outside their party, while that isn't true for Sanders. Sanders says things that are at worst boring and at best moving the Overton Window.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:55
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Trabisnikof posted:Earlier in this thread someone mentioned that they thought the "Democratic Establishment" was upset Sanders was running. I think its the opposite, they are happy he is running. Clinton needs someone so she can contrast herself as the centrist candidate and Sanders is perfect for that. That would be the correct way to view it from the perspective of a smart campaign strategist, but keep in mind that not everyone in the "Democratic Establishment" is a smart campaign strategist and there will be plenty who are upset and think his quixotic campaign is stealing her thunder.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:59
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GOP must destroy Donald Trump before he destroys them. It may already be too late - Trump is the latest Joseph McCarthy or George Wallace. The GOP must excise the poison. History says they won'tquote:Trump has been polling amazingly well. Apparently his comments about drug-smuggling Mexicans, anchor babies, rapists and jobless chiselers have helped him with the crimson-red base of the party. Many major news polls place him second — some even in first. He and his swooped coif have a strong chance of appearing in the first TV debates scheduled for Aug. 6. What do you think of the two cautionary tales in here? Goldwater lost, but Nixon won. I would be inclined to say that "The Donald" is no Nixon, but reports indicate there were over 50,000 people present at his speech in Phoenix.
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Jul 12, 2015 19:59
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Trabisnikof posted:Earlier in this thread someone mentioned that they thought the "Democratic Establishment" was upset Sanders was running. I think its the opposite, they are happy he is running. Clinton needs someone so she can contrast herself as the centrist candidate and Sanders is perfect for that. Then why has she turned left faster than Dale Jr.?
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Jul 12, 2015 20:00
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Aliquid posted:Then why has she turned left faster than Dale Jr.? Has she? She hasn't done much of anything. No one has. Bernie's own positions aren't that far from hers in the first place. He just talks about income inequality more, and I don't think she's picked up that ball at all so far, though I'm sure she will.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:03
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Brannock posted:IMO it seems more productive to make high school worthwhile again instead of trying to turn college into a second high school and pipeline all the kids through another (conveniently very expensive) educational institution. Yeah - changing education fits in with the whole idea an economic facebook - you always can choose to take classes and improve yourself but from ages ~5-18 you are intensively learning with hands-on vocational opportunities so you grow into an economic niceh - instead of the mechanistic idea of 'work is being at this desk for 8 hours a day'.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:04
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Hieronymous Alloy posted:It's a pretty good way to refute the allegation that you've ignored said issue, though. It isn't. No one cares that 50 years ago he did something, what people care about is that he hasn't been doing something about in the last 50 days. As far as people who are concerned about him "ignoring the issue" that is, I'm not one of them. greatn posted:Children who know in fifth and sixth grade college will be available to them tuition free and have single payer healthcare are probably a lot less likely to get pregnant in the intervening years. And hell maybe if they do get pregnant we could destigmatize abortion just a tiny bit. Uh, this sounds pretty suspect. You're expecting 10-13 year olds to plan ahead that far when they haven't even had any sex education? Like sure maybe this works for mini-Ayn Rands who are totally rational actors all the time, but I don't think it'll mean poo poo for real kids. And you can destigmatize abortions all you want, a ton of them if they do get pregnant are still going to want to keep the baby and end up hosed over, because again, they are children.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:06
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Joementum posted:That would be the correct way to view it from the perspective of a smart campaign strategist, but keep in mind that not everyone in the "Democratic Establishment" is a smart campaign strategist and there will be plenty who are upset and think his quixotic campaign is stealing her thunder. That's a good point. Aliquid posted:Then why has she turned left faster than Dale Jr.? By doing what exactly? Or are you counting all of her attempts to reach out to her base as "because of Sanders"?
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Jul 12, 2015 20:06
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greatn posted:Has she? She hasn't done much of anything. No one has. Bernie's own positions aren't that far from hers in the first place. He just talks about income inequality more, and I don't think she's picked up that ball at all so far, though I'm sure she will. Her announcement speech and campaign video would have put her near Kucinich in 2004. It's obviously just rhetoric at this point, but there's definitely been a shift.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:07
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Obdicut posted:Pregnancy and birth rates are very strongly correlated. I don't believe it. Not for a second. You get what you're saying, right? There's no loving way there are reliable pregnancy or abortion statistics for teens. I'd really like to see this argument backed up. Obdicut posted:Something that affects one out of a hundred students--which is an incredibly conservative estimate--would be significant. One in a hundred female students- not just students. Then factor in what % of women who have pregnancies drop out. Then, sift through all the complications behind that individuals academic record to determine pregnancy being the number one reason it happened. There's too much poo poo here to say anything meaningful. Any self respecting psychology major would've said that already. Let's drop it already. This is already a pretty meaningless statement without being in juxtaposition with anything else.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:11
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Job Truniht posted:I don't believe it. Not for a second. You get what you're saying, right? There's no loving way there are reliable pregnancy or abortion statistics for teens. I'd really like to see this argument backed up. Argument from incredulity isn't an argument. quote:One in a hundred female students- not just students. Then factor in what % of women who have pregnancies drop out. Then, sift through all the complications behind that individuals academic record to determine pregnancy being the number one reason it happened. There's too much poo poo here to say anything meaningful. Any self respecting psychology major would've said that already. We're talking about sociology, not psychology. Curiously, I was a sociology major. quote:Let's drop it already. This is already a pretty meaningless statement without being in juxtaposition with anything else. Teen pregnancy is a significant problem; we've done great things in reducing it. We can do more.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:18
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The number one thing we could do would be universal healthcare. The number two thing would be federal sex education standards getting rid of this abstinence only bullshit.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:20
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There's one curious way in which Trump and Bernie might compare - people talk optimistically about how Bernie polling well will help Hillary absorb some leftist economic ideas, since he's a good test balloon for progressive support in the Democratic party and can say the most honest, Democratic Socialist stuff. But what about Republican candidates seeing Trump's success with the base and trying to absorb some of his ideas and rhetoric? There was some talk already of how Cruz is going to have to up his game to get back on the radar, but even the moderate candidates like JEB! might have to dip a toe into his anti-immigration, anti-poor, anti-everyone style if they want to make some actual gains. The smarter commentators (and Lindsey Graham of all people) have noted that if Trump appears to have the support of the Republican party and his ideas become representative of the Republican electorate, that'll be severely damaging to the party's image. The condemnations have been pretty tepid and scattered so far, maybe some candidates are trying to figure out how to cop his style and support base, but that's one needle that I don't think will thread.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:21
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Aliquid posted:Her announcement speech and campaign video would have put her near Kucinich in 2004. It's obviously just rhetoric at this point, but there's definitely been a shift. A shift from what? Her campaign in 2008? You can't credit Sanders for 8 years of Obama.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:22
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Obdicut posted:Argument from incredulity isn't an argument. Just stop if you can't back up your strong correlation claim. I hate to be pedantic about it, but there are problems on the onset of remotely interpreting these numbers- especially since abortion numbers are botched to hell and back, and they do affect pregnancy/birth rate correlations Obdicut posted:Teen pregnancy is a significant problem; we've done great things in reducing it. We can do more. That is entirely different from my argument. Arguing something that is tangentially correlated to a gently caress load of things as being a problem and arguing that something that is tangentially correlated to a gently caress load of things is related to another problem statistically are not related. The latter is going to raise a lot of red flags.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:25
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I don't see any shift at all caused by Sanders so far. If there is it will come later than this.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:25
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Obdicut posted:You realize that this is incredibly insulting towards and patronizing of black people, right? That they're just duped by their leaders, who are either corrupt or bamboozled by the sly whitewoman, Hillary?
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Jul 12, 2015 20:27
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Obdicut posted:You realize that this is incredibly insulting towards and patronizing of black people, right? That they're just duped by their leaders, who are either corrupt or bamboozled by the sly whitewoman, Hillary? Sorry, that's low content. Church figures really do have a lot of influence in most black communities. Just look it up.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:29
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Job Truniht posted:I don't believe it. Not for a second. You get what you're saying, right? There's no loving way there are reliable pregnancy or abortion statistics for teens. I'd really like to see this argument backed up.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:30
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greatn posted:I don't see any shift at all caused by Sanders so far. If there is it will come later than this. Sanders intending to enter the race and the recent popularity of progressive rhetoric from people like him and Warren caused Hillary to come into the race significantly to the left of Obama, whereas without that she might well be vying for maximum centrism against O'Malley.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:31
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Feather posted:What an incredibly dishonest misrepresentation of my post. All you've done is shown you have a reading comprehension problem in addition to being intellectually dishonest. It's racist whitewashing if you don't find much difference between American black and white approaches to politics because they're all ultimately American citizens who consume American media. It's racist stereotyping and infantilizing if you explain how and why the American black community engages with politics differently than whites do. Welcome to the Kafka trap.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:31
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Jonked posted:Just to be clear, you believe that "pregnancy" and "child birth" are two uncorrelated events, and you are demanding proof otherwise? I am demanding otherwise- specifically for teen pregnancy.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:35
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Job Truniht posted:I am demanding otherwise- specifically for teen pregnancy. Serious question: are you ESL? It's fine if that's the case, but some of the claims you are making are preposterous to the point where it would be more reasonable to assume that you are not communicating your intent correctly rather than that they are your sincere beliefs.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:41
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Full Battle Rattle posted:GOP must destroy Donald Trump before he destroys them. It may already be too late - Trump is the latest Joseph McCarthy or George Wallace. The GOP must excise the poison. History says they won't That seems low, I had heard there were half a million.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:43
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Voyager I posted:Serious question: are you ESL? It's fine if that's the case, but some of the claims you are making are preposterous to the point where it would be more reasonable to assume that you are not communicating your intent correctly rather than that they are your sincere beliefs. No. I am just bad at English. That still won't stop me from calling out "Mr. Statistics" and his lying friend about how everyone should care about an issue they really don't know anything about. Job Truniht fucked around with this message at 20:54 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 20:44
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Sir Tonk posted:That seems low, I had heard there were half a million. But that would surely violate a fire code! 
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Jul 12, 2015 20:45
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Jazerus posted:Sanders intending to enter the race and the recent popularity of progressive rhetoric from people like him and Warren caused Hillary to come into the race significantly to the left of Obama, whereas without that she might well be vying for maximum centrism against O'Malley. Yeah, it's certainly not just Sanders. The Democratic Party is rapidly changing and since the Blue Dogs were strangled in 2010 the progressive wing has been in the driver's seat.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:46
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Jazerus posted:Sanders intending to enter the race and the recent popularity of progressive rhetoric from people like him and Warren caused Hillary to come into the race significantly to the left of Obama, whereas without that she might well be vying for maximum centrism against O'Malley. Why does Clinton need to compete with O'Malley to be more centrist when she's already crushing him? Clinton also didn't really come out to the left of Obama, other than the fact that 2016 is 8 years of an Obama presidency later. I think people discount how much has shifted leftward in the last 8 years, we get caught up in our losses and don't see the victories.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:51
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Stereotype posted:Hillary needs Bernie because otherwise she is running against no one and will have no face time in the media and Trump will be president. Hillary has been pretty actively avoiding the media, though.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:51
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Does Bernie have any specific minority policies or are they all general policies that end up benefiting minorities disproportionately to white people/ect. Not asking about gender either.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:54
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Vox Nihili posted:Hillary has been pretty actively avoiding the media, though. Because its July of 2015? She doesn't want to use up all her press gimmicks early and be left without a shiny bobble to attract their attention. Veskit posted:Does Bernie have any specific minority policies or are they all general policies that end up benefiting minorities disproportionately to white people/ect. Not according to his website.
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Jul 12, 2015 20:55
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Job Truniht posted:Let's do some very basic math. 77% of those happened at the ages of 18-19 respectively, what % of those females were still in high school? If you factor those in, you're still talking roughly <3% of the sample size. If you factor those out, you get 8.745 per 1000 females, that's less than 0.008745% of the sample size population. Again, teen pregnancy rates can vary wildly from state to state based on that state's policy towards abstinence. They are also prevalent in states with high income inequality. Man your red text is so loving spot on it's painful. Yes, around 1.2% overall would be about right and that's far too loving high of a number. e: When I graduated highschool my class was only a couple hundred people and I knew of close to a dozen people who had gotten pregnant, most of whom dropped out, in my 4 years of HS. This was a mostly middle to upper middle class district. My class definitely had more than 1.23% of the girls get pregnant as teenagers and drop out. Evil Fluffy fucked around with this message at 21:07 on Jul 12, 2015 |
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Jul 12, 2015 21:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Hillary has been pretty actively avoiding the media, though. I am seeing this as a very good policy, and a lesson learned from what keeps happening to Republicans in the presidential election
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Jul 12, 2015 21:05
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McAlister posted:http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2015/07/11/teachers-union-endorses-hillary-clinton-in-democratic-race/ Nah, Hillary won because she's the presumptive nominee and they want to curry favor with her. Very simple.
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Jul 12, 2015 21:06
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Evil Fluffy posted:Man your red text is so loving spot on it's painful. I like how nobody here actually rushed to defend her claim on academic performance and teenage pregnancy are correlated. I like how nobody backed up her statement with any actual data. You and your cadre of ignorant fuckwads can take those numbers at face value all you want. I argued from the assumption that her statement was true and derived that whatever pocket of data you get out of it is a manginess sample size that you'd be hard pressed to publish with your academic integrity ever being called into question. This is also why nobody takes sociology majors seriously.
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Jul 12, 2015 21:10
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Job Truniht posted:Just stop if you can't back up your strong correlation claim. I hate to be pedantic about it, but there are problems on the onset of remotely interpreting these numbers- especially since abortion numbers are botched to hell and back, and they do affect pregnancy/birth rate correlations I'm sorry, but I don't think you understand what correlation means or something. Pregnancy and birth are correlated in the same way birth and adolescence are correlated--or to put it in more appropriate terms, the way that birth and adolescence were correlated back in the 1600s. Did tons of children die after childbirth and never see adolescence? Yes. That doesn't mean they're not correlated. What you mean to be saying, I think, is that we don't know how many pregnancies are terminated. This is true. It doesn't really matter, because we know the number of births that occur; even if we ignore all other pregnancies, pretend that they don't happen, teen motherhood is a significant problem. One we've improved upon a lot. Feather posted:What an incredibly dishonest misrepresentation of my post. All you've done is shown you have a reading comprehension problem in addition to being intellectually dishonest. No. You are making a special pleading claim that the black community is led by its leadership in a special way that differs from the white community, and that Hillary's support is a result of 'buttering up' those leaders, who the black population tend to follow. This is extremely patronizing towards the black population in a number of ways; it assumes that the 'leaders' if they exist, are not chosen by the black community on merit, no matter what else you think of them, and that the black community cannot recognize that its leaders are lobbied and approached--the 'butter' is not simply rhetoric, it results in actual real gains for the black community. JT Jag posted:lol I didn't say churches don't have a lot of influence in black communities. They do in white communities, too.
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Jul 12, 2015 21:12
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Obdicut posted:I'm sorry, but I don't think you understand what correlation means or something. Pregnancy and birth are correlated in the same way birth and adolescence are correlated--or to put it in more appropriate terms, the way that birth and adolescence were correlated back in the 1600s. Did tons of children die after childbirth and never see adolescence? Yes. That doesn't mean they're not correlated. What you mean to be saying, I think, is that we don't know how many pregnancies are terminated. This is true. It doesn't really matter, because we know the number of births that occur; even if we ignore all other pregnancies, pretend that they don't happen, teen motherhood is a significant problem. One we've improved upon a lot. Hey shithead, back your claims with citations or shut up.
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Jul 12, 2015 21:13
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These stats need to be unskewed!
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Jul 12, 2015 21:14
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