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I thought GOP learned in 2012 that having a lot of debates was not good for them We have 10 more GOP debates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_debates,_2016
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Aug 10, 2015 20:21
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Nuclearmonkee posted:If he runs 3rd party Hillary will need to murder a kitten on live television to lose. Of course Hillary would adopt the republican plank on kittens.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:23
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theblackw0lf posted:If Democratic voters were being more exposed to Clinton's policy positions, she might be generating more enthusiasm. The message effects of political advertising last about a week in the mind of a voter and many more people are exposed to ads than watch the debates (or even news reports about the debates). Voters will be very exposed to Hillary Clinton's agenda by next November. There's no immediate need to do so now, except to calm the Democrats appearing on Morning Joe.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:23
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Watch the search hits of the candidates name as the debate went on Debate Info
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Aug 10, 2015 20:24
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Nonsense posted:Get rid of Harry Reid while your at it. gently caress you Harry Reid is cool and good* *ignoring yucca mountain
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Aug 10, 2015 20:24
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echronorian posted:Because his brother was such a fantastic debater? I do agree some, though. I'd be interested to look at Ws polling in 2000 and 04 W at least had charisma which is even *more* necessary in this insane primary. I don't think he's gonna make it.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Also, Nate's electoral models are more than just poll averages.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:26
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Pinterest Mom posted:hillary has a complete and utter lock on the only demographic that matters: democratic party elected officials, fundraisers, and backroom operatives I understand that serious people are cool with democracy being dead and buried, but can you explain why a theoretical critical mass of Bernie voters in the primary wouldn't be able to overcome this?
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Aug 10, 2015 20:26
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Raskolnikov38 posted:gently caress you Harry Reid is cool and good* Sorry but that's why he has to go. Nuclear Power is the only future alternative, and I will literally execute all leftists who take issue with that.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:27
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I think the best part of all of this is that it appears the establishment can't steal votes from Trump at this point which means they have have no choice but to go after the not-Trumps hard while Trump flings feces at all off them from the corner and everyone else knows that they have nothing to gain by engaging him. It's going to be so beautiful  Think about it, there is a good chance that 20% of the votes are off the table until either Trump either drops out or at this point, I dunno what would be a mistake for Trump now? A terrible rumor that he does in fact have some remaining husk of humanity in there?
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Aug 10, 2015 20:27
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Necc0 posted:W at least had charisma which is even *more* necessary in this insane primary. I don't think he's gonna make it. I don't think the GOP establishment will give in to Trump, mainly because as president he wouldn't bend to their whims necessarily anyway. Especially now! Trump is the never forgive never forget type. Obviously there is a sizable interest in him at the moment but it's too hard to predict who gets nominated. I think Jeb is the guy the establishment wants, along with Fiorina. And that establishment gets their way, usually. Which is why I made up the bullshit statistic of a 75% chance this election will be Clinton and Jeb. 
Donovan Trip fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Aug 10, 2015 |
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Aug 10, 2015 20:29
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Joementum posted:The message effects of political advertising last about a week in the mind of a voter and many more people are exposed to ads than watch the debates (or even news reports about the debates). Right now she seems primarily focused on building out a nationwide network of connections with as many major local political players as possible. I'm assuming the will form the backbone of an apparatus to drive GOTV operations
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Aug 10, 2015 20:31
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echronorian posted:I don't think the GOP establishment will give in to Trump, mainly because as president he wouldn't bend to their whims necessarily anyway. Especially now! Trump is the never forgive never forget type. The establishment wanted Romney, they might get what they want but that doesn't mean their pick isn't going to be fatally injured in the process. Also Jeb! seems to really suck at campaigning so far.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:33
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Bryter posted:Yeah, they're worse. Nah, there's other historical data that probably has statistical value.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:33
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:I thought GOP learned in 2012 that having a lot of debates was not good for them Trump is ratings gold and everyone wants some.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:34
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No time for debates. Must fundraise. Will say what you want to hear for $2700 exactly, though.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:37
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Shifty Pony posted:Right now she seems primarily focused on building out a nationwide network of connections with as many major local political players as possible. I'm assuming the will form the backbone of an apparatus to drive GOTV operations I've said it before and I will say it again, I've seen it first hand, people are seriously, seriously underestimating the framework Hillary has in place for one hell of a ground game when the time comes, one equal to if not even larger than Obama's. Forget the presidency, if the GOP has any sense they are currently freaking out about the down tickets right now, even around the margins of conservative states.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:38
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Something Else posted:I understand that serious people are cool with democracy being dead and buried, but can you explain why a theoretical critical mass of Bernie voters in the primary wouldn't be able to overcome this?  If your question is "theoretically, if more people voted for Bernie Sanders than Hillary Clinton, he'd win?", that's not a useful question to ask. Bernie is outside of the Democratic ideological mainstream whereas Hillary is just about perfectly centered in the primary electorate, and if every Democratic Senator, Governor, and Representative in the country supports her, that signals to primary voters that she's the reasonable choice to support, and it signals to party activists that they have to support her if they're going to take part in party business.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:38
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Three Olives posted:The establishment wanted Romney, they might get what they want but that doesn't mean their pick isn't going to be fatally injured in the process. Also Jeb! seems to really suck at campaigning so far. Jeb is ugly looking. George Bush is The Warrior.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:39
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Another poll: http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810 quote:Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, unchanged from before Thursday's televised debate.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:39
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Nonsense posted:Sorry but that's why he has to go. Nuclear Power is the only future alternative, and I will literally execute all leftists who take issue with that. You don't have to execute anyone, just make them drive across Nevada at 35 miles an hour until they mentally break and swear to support Yucca. Then they can go as fast as they want. Shouldn't take more than an hour for most people to lose all will to live.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:39
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So is "Trump can't win Iowa" still hard-hitting political analysis or has it become a prayer to an unfeeling, uncaring republican electorate?
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Aug 10, 2015 20:41
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"Healthy young child goes to doctor, gets pumped with massive shot of many vaccines, doesn't feel good and changes - AUTISM. Many such cases!" - Donald J Trump March 2014
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Aug 10, 2015 20:41
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Never did I think I would read, in a presidential election context, the sentence "His (Donald Trump's) closest rival."
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Aug 10, 2015 20:42
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Full Battle Rattle posted:So is "Trump can't win Iowa" still hard-hitting political analysis or has it become a prayer to an unfeeling, uncaring republican electorate? An army of GOP operatives are looking for dead girls or live boys in Trump's closet.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:42
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greatn posted:"Healthy young child goes to doctor, gets pumped with massive shot of many vaccines, doesn't feel good and changes - AUTISM. Many such cases!" - Donald J Trump March 2014 Well that's not going to go well for Sanders supporters.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:43
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Jeb! has the smarts of Dubya and none of the charisma. In a normal election I'd say he has zero chance but every Republican candidate is about as bad. Trump is unironically the least bad of the "best Republican presidential slate ever" e: Trump can't win Iowa code:
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Aug 10, 2015 20:43
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Montasque posted:An army of GOP operatives are looking for dead girls or live boys in Trump's closet.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:43
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Ghost of Reagan Past posted:What they found will shock you!
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Aug 10, 2015 20:44
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I don't think it's implausible to imagine Trump winning Iowa - Santorum and Huckabee won it the last two times, and if there are 17 candidates, you don't need a lot of the vote to win it. Trump could win with 20%. When you start winnowing the field down and getting to states in the calendar that are friendlier to mainstream establishment Republicans like South Carolina, though, that's not a hurdle he can climb.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:44
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greatn posted:"Healthy young child goes to doctor, gets pumped with massive shot of many vaccines, doesn't feel good and changes - AUTISM. Many such cases!" - Donald J Trump March 2014 I've been hoping one of those gopers is dumb enough to throw this at him.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:44
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Necc0 posted:Card Name: Donald Trump From a few pages back, this is brilliant. Especially giving him trample. He only needs a color immunity now. If this were Hearthstone/WoW Trump would be Jaraxxus though. TRIFLING GOP, YOUR ARROGANCE WILL BE YOUR UNDOING.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:45
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Something Else posted:I understand that serious people are cool with democracy being dead and buried, but can you explain why a theoretical critical mass of Bernie voters in the primary wouldn't be able to overcome this? The behavior of the elected officials and the party insiders influences the behavior of the voters. It's not that party insider support is more important than votes, it's that party insider support leads to votes, because you have the organizations and the local ties and the GOTV and all of the rest of that stuff. also it's for the most part probably a pretty good indicator of where the mainstream of the party lies in terms of support E: Trump's camapign and Sanders' campaign are similar in that, as things stand, them winning their respective primaries would pretty much require more or less the entire conventional wisdom about primaries to be wrong That seems more likely to me in Trump's case than in Sanders', but I don't think it's likely in either case
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Aug 10, 2015 20:45
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I wonder how many debates we have before the audience is told to shut the gently caress up?
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Aug 10, 2015 20:46
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Pohl posted:You don't have to execute anyone, just make them drive across Nevada at 35 miles an hour until they mentally break and swear to support Yucca. That's like a 11 hour drive, geez man. Brannock fucked around with this message at 20:55 on Aug 10, 2015 |
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Aug 10, 2015 20:50
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Anybody convinced that Trump is going to continue being a going concern in the primary in the long term needs to go read up on polls where respondents blame Obama for hurricane Katrina and other crazy nonsense. What we're seeing with Trump is 5-10% of the literally insane people who are his real base combining with the people who are bandwagoning due to him being the flavor of the month. There's also the issue of the field being split in so many directions that it makes it look like Trump has legs due to him ending up as the frontrunner. In a primary with fewer candidates his numbers would be less impressive. The only thing keeping him in number one is that more reasonable voters are currently split between too many candidates. As the number of candidates goes down I expect Trump's numbers to soften by about half and then stay there until he drops out of the GOP race. I also don't trust that most of the people saying they like Trump right now are going to actually pull the lever for him. I imagine there's going to be a lot of sobering up as real primaries draw closer. Trump has done better than some expected, but that's mostly due to two flukey things that he is definitely not responsible for. The first is that Trump was serious about running. Nobody could have predicted that since it was essentially a dice roll. Past Trump performance is never indicative of future Trump results. The second is that FNC decided to stack the first debate based on national polling that gives a significant edge to anyone with high name ID. Trump has 100% name ID and free marketing through the media that love to cover him. FNC did that so they could make sweet ad money from Super PAC's needing to run ads on FNC to sway to the polls to put them in the debate. They didn't anticipate Trump abusing it. I know there's significant anti-Nate-Silver backlash as of late, but that's no reason to start jumping off in crazy directions about how "Trump's totally got a shot guys, all the experts have been wrong so far!" It's starting to sound a lot like the Paulites or the people that like to unskew polls. Trump is in a really bad position statistically despite being the frontrunner right now. He has 100% recognition while only polling at 22%. So the thing I want all of you "Trump has a shot guys!" people to do is explain to me how Trump grows his poll numbers. He's gonna need more than 22% to get the nomination. There's not going to be 17 candidates at the convention.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:51
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echronorian posted:I wonder how many debates we have before the audience is told to shut the gently caress up? They already did this, remember last time when the loving booed the gay soldier that sent his question in from Iraq during his deployment?
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Aug 10, 2015 20:51
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ErIog posted:So the thing I want all of you "Trump has a shot guys!" people to do is explain to me how Trump grows his poll numbers. Next debate he bites Jeb!'s ear off on live tv
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Aug 10, 2015 20:53
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Lord of Pie posted:Jeb! has the smarts of Dubya and none of the charisma. In a normal election I'd say he has zero chance but every Republican candidate is about as bad. Looking back over the past 40 years, the most charismatic candidate is almost always the winner, regardless of background/skill/intelligence. This is why GWB won over Gore(barely) and why Trump will be a thorn in the GOP's side for quite awhile.
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Aug 10, 2015 20:57
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Brannock posted:That's like a 11 hour drive, geez man. Fine, turn the AC off for half hour stretches
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Aug 10, 2015 20:57
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