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GlyphGryph posted:Then how do you explain his 29% approval rating among non-whites? Which minority vote IS he attracting? Donald Trump is hilarious and famous. If it comes to a situation where he could actively win the presidency, the dude who went nuts about Mexican Rapists will probably see his non white support shrink.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:06
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Aliquid posted:measuring minority vote split between 17 candidates in a 300-person poll for the republican nomination means it will all be statistical noise. there would have been roughly 30 minorities polled in that scenario This is completely irrelevant, since I was asking about approval ratings. Zelder posted:Donald Trump is hilarious and famous. If it comes to a situation where he could actively win the presidency, the dude who went nuts about Mexican Rapists will probably see his non white support shrink. I suppose this could be true, though.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:07
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Alkydere posted:So, I'm seeing the following outcomes when it comes to the 2016 election: Hilariously, the only thing I disagree with is that I'm starting to seriously doubt that Jeb! would end up with the nomination just because of how hard he's hosed up quote:Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush invoked the controversial case of Terri Schiavo at a conservative conference in Washington, DC Friday morning, reminding the audience of his role in the case when he was governor of Florida. http://www.ibtimes.com/jeb-bush-next-president-should-privatize-social-security-1969720 quote:Jeb Bush thinks the next president will need to privatize Social Security, he said at a town hall meeting in New Hampshire on Tuesday -- acknowledging that his brother attempted to do so and failed.  Because it can't be said enough: Iraq War architect Paul Wolfowitz in bright red (Iraqi blood). http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/11/politics/jeb-bush-isis-speech/ quote:Jeb Bush, laying out his strategy to combat ISIS on Tuesday, called for establishing a no-fly zone over Syria, defeating President Bashar al-Assad's regime, and embedding U.S. troops with Iraqi forces, all the while expanding U.S. engagement across the globe. DaveWoo posted:Quote of the Day - "I'll tell you, taking out Saddam Hussein turned out to be a pretty good deal." ~Jeb Bush We are only one debate into the primary and Jeb! has already provided enough ammunition against him to arm/destroy the entire Middle East. (Just like he'd do as president!    )
fade5 fucked around with this message at 21:39 on Aug 18, 2015 |
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Aug 18, 2015 21:08
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GlyphGryph posted:Then how do you explain his 29% approval rating among non-whites? Which minority vote IS he attracting? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G_EmM-rLWgQ
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Aug 18, 2015 21:09
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GlyphGryph posted:Then how do you explain his 29% approval rating among non-whites? Which minority vote IS he attracting? not sure where you got that number but: quote:Among Hispanics, however, his negatives are soaring. Just 13 percent said they have a positive opinion of Trump, who last month said undocumented immigrants who are “rapists” and “killers” are coming across the border from Mexico and other countries. Eighty-one percent of Hispanics said they have an unfavorable impression of him. http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-donald-trump-favorability-increasing-120139.html
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Aug 18, 2015 21:11
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:http://www.politico.com/story/2015/07/poll-donald-trump-favorability-increasing-120139.html
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Aug 18, 2015 21:14
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euphronius posted:Why are you projecting Trump against Sanders. They are not in the same primary. Because, as goons, we need to wank over our general election fantasies on occasion.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:17
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:not sure where you got that number but: That may mean he'll get like 10% (or whatever outlier number compared to trendlines you think he's going to get) of the Hispanic vote, or it may mean he'd get just about as much as any other Repub, whatever that is. Earlier in the thread I was criticizing favorability metrics as indicators or predictors of real value. They also fluctuate a bit too much for my liking. When you can ask a question "Who do you plan to vote for?" and the answer to that answers your question, well, there you go. Use that. Don't ask a completely different question and then use hundreds of words to rationalize that it answers that question. Dahbadu fucked around with this message at 21:55 on Aug 18, 2015 |
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Aug 18, 2015 21:19
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fade5 posted:To be mostly serious, yeah I'd agree with this. Oh, I fully agree. I think the neocon establishment really wants to push the Bush family into a proper dynasty so it will be a good while before they admit that JEB! just has no legs. He finds political landmines that should be obvious and instead of dodging them with minimal before-hand prep he'll jump up and down on them to make sure they go off. We all know JEB!'s biggest contribution to the Republican process is deciding how badly the will lose, but convincing his powerful family and family's friends of that will be a long, painful, hilarious process.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:19
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Are we starting to see the crazy ramp up to last ditch levels now? Being stuck at the kiddy table for the second debate would be pretty much the death rattle for the likes of Perry or Jindal's campaigns.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:21
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Shifty Pony posted:Are we starting to see the crazy ramp up to last ditch levels now? Being stuck at the kiddy table for the second debate would be pretty much the death rattle for the likes of Perry or Jindal's campaigns. Jindal's campaign was always dead. The only person who didn't seem to realize it was Jindal. He's too brown, and the wrong kind of brown, to ever win a Republican primary in his lifetime.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:22
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:not sure where you got that number but:
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Aug 18, 2015 21:23
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If Trump runs third party, what pull from the D column will he get? To act like it would be zero is ridiculous.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:27
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SirPablo posted:If Trump runs third party, what pull from the D column will he get? To act like it would be zero is ridiculous. neo liberals
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Aug 18, 2015 21:28
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Alkydere posted:Oh, I fully agree. I think the neocon establishment really wants to push the Bush family into a proper dynasty so it will be a good while before they admit that JEB! just has no legs. He finds political landmines that should be obvious and instead of dodging them with minimal before-hand prep he'll jump up and down on them to make sure they go off. Jeb being the dumb one is never going to stop being funny. Bush (The Dubster) exploited his image as a dummy to get him into and keep him in the white house for eight years. Jeb came into this as a quiet intellectual and every time a camera turns his way he says something tactless and idiotic. Dude just doesn't know when to shut up. Mirthless fucked around with this message at 21:31 on Aug 18, 2015 |
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Aug 18, 2015 21:29
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Mirthless posted:Jindal's campaign was always dead. The only person who didn't seem to realize it was Jindal.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:30
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SirPablo posted:If Trump runs third party, what pull from the D column will he get? To act like it would be zero is ridiculous.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:30
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SirPablo posted:If Trump runs third party, what pull from the D column will he get? To act like it would be zero is ridiculous. I think he'll have the market cornered on ironic voting
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Aug 18, 2015 21:31
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SirPablo posted:If Trump runs third party, what pull from the D column will he get? To act like it would be zero is ridiculous.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:35
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JT Jag posted:Accelerationists, racists, sexists, hipsters. In the event the sandstorm happens, antisemites There are a lot of liberals with wrong opinions about Jews
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Aug 18, 2015 21:36
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All in all, probably enough to peel away 1-5 of the 49-odd percent the Dems would normally get on election day.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:38
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SirPablo posted:If Trump runs third party, what pull from the D column will he get? To act like it would be zero is ridiculous. Going by Perot's split (our only real example), it'd be around half as many D votes as R - so as Nessus said, 5 points off the D ticket versus 10 off the R. And that may be slightly optimistic given the large minority base of the Dems and Trump's rhetoric. Even if it was 1:1 or 2:1 though, it would be an absolute disaster for the GOP given their current demographic disadvantages.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:38
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New topic of conversation. Favorability numbers for candidates in the context of electing said candidates exist almost solely (realized or not) to give the media something to talk about or an excuse to talk about something. Agree? Disagree? Let's discuss...
Dahbadu fucked around with this message at 21:44 on Aug 18, 2015 |
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Aug 18, 2015 21:39
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Dahbadu posted:New topic of conversation. Favorability numbers for candidates in the context of elections exist almost solely (realized or not) to give the media something to talk about or an excuse to talk about something. Agree? Disagree? Let's discuss...
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Aug 18, 2015 21:41
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Wait, Hispanics don't like Trump just because he's racist against them and exploits them?
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Aug 18, 2015 21:41
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Dahbadu posted:New topic of conversation. Favorability numbers for candidates in the context of elections exist almost solely (realized or not) to give the media something to talk about or an excuse to talk about something. Agree? Disagree? Let's discuss... Disagree, they exist solely to give us something to talk about, even if the pollsters collect them for what they imagine is a different reason.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:42
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JT Jag posted:
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Aug 18, 2015 21:43
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What was the point of this emptyquote
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Aug 18, 2015 21:44
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Yeah, Trump running 3rd party would be awesome and I hope it happens. Don't think it will. 
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Aug 18, 2015 21:49
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SirPablo posted:If Trump runs third party, what pull from the D column will he get? To act like it would be zero is ridiculous. It seems very unlikely that Trump would pull more voters from Democrats than Republicans, and that's disregarding the possibility that a Trump candidacy would increase voter turnout. I have a hard time believing that Trump's comments on Latinos would be anything other than a positive for the Democrats.
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Aug 18, 2015 21:58
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Dahbadu posted:Yeah, Trump running 3rd party would be awesome and I hope it happens. Don't think it will. I think if there is anyone in the world as arrogant as Perot, it's Donald loving Trump
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Aug 18, 2015 21:59
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Dahbadu posted:New topic of conversation. Favorability numbers for candidates in the context of electing said candidates exist almost solely (realized or not) to give the media something to talk about or an excuse to talk about something. Agree? Disagree? Let's discuss... I think in a crowded field they might have some value in prognostication. Basically they could help indicate where votes will start accumulating as the field winnows down. Of course you can also poll people on second choice candidates to get a similar type of information, so I dunno. Beyond that, I suppose they at least provide one additional dimension of information about voter preferences. For example, let's say I have an unfavorable view of Democratic Candidate X but will vote for him/her over any Republican. So you could read a few things into a situation in which X has low favorability yet polls ahead of all Republicans: For example, maybe it illustrates voters' tendencies to vote their party even when they say they don't care about party affiliation. Maybe it indicates that support for X is grudgingly given, making him/her more vulnerable (from primary challengers and in the general) than he/she would be with enthusiastic supporters. A candidate who sees that might, perhaps, take away a message that the platform they have on offer is not appealing to their party's base. Or, more realistically, that they need to sell their unpopular policies harder or whatever.
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Aug 18, 2015 22:01
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It's going to be so great when Trump finally reveals himself to be Sacha Baron Cohen
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Aug 18, 2015 22:05
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Mirthless posted:I think if there is anyone in the world as arrogant as Perot, it's Donald loving Trump Yeah, I don't think it's going to happen because Trump is going to get the nom. I want Joe to be right and I want to be wrong. Let's see if I'm a fool. I seriously hope I am. And there is hope, it is still quite early in the race! 
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Aug 18, 2015 22:06
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James Garfield posted:It seems very unlikely that Trump would pull more voters from Democrats than Republicans, and that's disregarding the possibility that a Trump candidacy would increase voter turnout. yeah theyve polled clinton-bush-trump and trump steals like 4 or 5% from clinton and like 15-20% from bush. last one i saw was clinton 44%, bush 25% and trump 24% (lol)
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Aug 18, 2015 22:09
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:yeah theyve polled clinton-bush-trump and trump steals like 4 or 5% from clinton and like 15-20% from bush. last one i saw was clinton 44%, bush 25% and trump 24% (lol) Who knows if that's still true though--that was back when Bush was #2 (he's still #2 in our hearts, in every way that counts).
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Aug 18, 2015 22:18
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:yeah theyve polled clinton-bush-trump and trump steals like 4 or 5% from clinton and like 15-20% from bush. last one i saw was clinton 44%, bush 25% and trump 24% (lol)  Please go third party Trump. You know you want to.
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Aug 18, 2015 22:19
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trump running independent and beating the republican a la teddy would be pretty hilarious
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Aug 18, 2015 22:19
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Sheng-ji Yang posted:yeah theyve polled clinton-bush-trump and trump steals like 4 or 5% from clinton and like 15-20% from bush. last one i saw was clinton 44%, bush 25% and trump 24% (lol) God this would be AMAZING. I'm not religious but the thought of this scenario makes me feel like praying to someone.
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Aug 18, 2015 22:20
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Can somebody link that debate video with the crystal moderating and Rand with a gas mask and the creepy talking baby? My YouTube searches are coming up with nothing. Thanks!
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Aug 18, 2015 22:33
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