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I don't know why you can't wait for, like... 6-7 more candidates to drop out before giving any credence whatsoever to predictive models or making any prognostication of your own I mean if 17 people stay in this race all the way to January, then I feel comfortable saying Trump will be the nominee, and the GOP needs to focus on muscling out weaker candidates before going after Trump, considering Trump is a flesh golem and hitting him only makes him grow more powerful. I'm just saying that before making any sort of comparisons positive or negative to 2008 and 2012, maybe let this field shrink down to 2012-level sizes and allow the numbers to settle out. And I might be living in crazy town, but I think that can happen in the next 5 months, especially if the GOP establishment gets its poo poo together and tells chucklefucks like George Pataki to take a hike
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Aug 24, 2015 02:22
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Evil Fluffy posted:Either way, watching goons go full Ron Paulbot for Bernie is a thing of beauty. There's no shame in aiming for greener pastures.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:22
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Feather posted:It's not just hedge fund managers; it's anybody who "earns" a living on these things. It's pretty shameful how low the taxes are on what is effectively gambling, trading on inside information, insider-driven news, statistics-driven bets, and (more or less) front-running. oh yah, I know... it's just funny seeing trump run to the left of hillary on some things, like this. eta: Neurolimal posted:Surprisingly not that big a swerve from Trump: Yah, but it just astounds me that he can be all "let's get rid of insurance companies" or "let's tax hedge-funders" and is still leading the GOP contest. On the other hand, most Dem voters never missed a beat while being hypocrites, so Willa Rogers fucked around with this message at 02:24 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 02:22
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Trump is the best
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Aug 24, 2015 02:25
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genuinely think Trumps economic ideas are better than Sanders
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Aug 24, 2015 02:26
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A populist message that gets you all cheering while he manages to sneak in a repeal of the Estate Tax. I take back everything I said. He's going to win because people really are suckers.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:29
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Willa Rogers posted:oh yah, I know... it's just funny seeing trump run to the left of hillary on some things, like this. Like I've been trying to hammer on, at worst most republican voters dont give a poo poo about financial conservatism without social conservatism excuses, and at best you'll find plenty of socialists-in-training mad about their premiums. Trump is a great thing for progressives because he's capable of pushing rep voters leftwards financially while shouting down any decrepit establishment picks who challenge him.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:29
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He's said some batshit crazy stuff and has nasty unfavorables, but stuff like this is very powerful and bridges divides. When you combine this with the fact that the media are horrible watchdogs and crave the ratings they can generate from Trump... Just be wary of thinking Trump will be a pushover joke candidate in the general.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:31
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^^^ Oh yah, I agree, although I'm delighted he's running so strong on such "lefty" positions. He disproves everything I hate about milquetoast Dem third-wayisms.Neurolimal posted:Like I've been trying to hammer on, at worst most republican voters dont give a poo poo about financial conservatism without social conservatism excuses, and at best you'll find plenty of socialists-in-training mad about their premiums. He also makes it shameful for Hillary to continue outflanking him to the right. Not that she has any shame, mind you.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:32
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When is the next debate? I can't wait to see Trump deflect the entire GOP like a white billionaire Ip man
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Aug 24, 2015 02:35
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Feather posted:Eh, I tend to agree that this time it isn't (much) different. However things have in the past changed very rapidly and there's no good reason to think it *can't* happen. The question is whether it's happening *now*. I'm unconvinced and even though I support Bernie, were I to support candidates the same way I place trades in the equities casinos I'd have buy Hillary, kinda like banksters today have done already. Honestly, I don't think there's much difference except people are starting to realize that the game is rigged and they're pissed. I'm not sure it's reached a critical mass, but it gets a lot closer each cycle. When you combine that with two candidates that are true aberrations in American politics at this level, things that were important in past elections may not be as important in this election. Edit: Just wanted to add a couple of other points: 1) These candidates are more charismatic than their competition. They're stronger candidates. That matters. 2) More people get their info or form their opinions from online sources, as opposed to a more controlled source like TV or even radio. This grows each year and it's pretty big now. Dahbadu fucked around with this message at 02:58 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 02:35
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Litany Unheard posted:A populist message that gets you all cheering while he manages to sneak in a repeal of the Estate Tax. Haha, yeah, that was sneaky. That alone will endear him to the Kochs, especially if he never follows through with his levy. Spoiler: He won't. Or more accurately, Congress won't.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:36
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Neurolimal posted:Surprisingly not that big a swerve from Trump: 1999 Trump seems like a very different person. Somehow if Jeb brings up that old article, Trump would use it to get a boost in the primary.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:42
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quadrophrenic posted:I don't know why you can't wait for, like... 6-7 more candidates to drop out before giving any credence whatsoever to predictive models or making any prognostication of your own Trump still wins with 6-7 candidates left. Remember that like half of that field is below the margin of error in every poll. If Jindal, Graham, Santorum, Pataki, and Gilmore (lol) all dropped out tomorrow it wouldn't even budge the polls. If all you had today were Trump, Bush, Walker, Paul, Carson, Rubio, and Huckabee, you'd still have the same general split and clusterfuck that lets Trump win primaries with 30% of the vote.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:43
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Litany Unheard posted:A populist message that gets you all cheering while he manages to sneak in a repeal of the Estate Tax. The estate tax is p. much meaningless at this point in time; Dems helped raise the threshold to the point the vast majority of Americans aren't affected by it, while those who would be have enough money to hire lawyers & accountants to set up trusts to shield their money.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:44
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quadrophrenic posted:I don't know why you can't wait for, like... 6-7 more candidates to drop out before giving any credence whatsoever to predictive models or making any prognostication of your own pretend the gop primary is a 2 party system
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Aug 24, 2015 02:44
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Litany Unheard posted:A populist message that gets you all cheering while he manages to sneak in a repeal of the Estate Tax. trump literally tried to join the reform party in 2000 but left since they are a mess I believe he does things to spite those with money who never let him into their social clubs, like a richer nixon and nixon gave the epa
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Aug 24, 2015 02:45
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Willa Rogers posted:The estate tax is p. much meaningless at this point in time; Dems helped raise the threshold to the point the vast majority of Americans aren't affected by it, while those who would be have enough money to hire lawyers & accountants to set up trusts to shield their money. The solution to that isn't "oh well, better get rid of it altogether."
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Aug 24, 2015 02:47
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Mitt Romney posted:Also Jeb has this: You guys can't see the forest for the trees. Jeb's haul is irrelevant. Look at the money Cruz has. Conventional wisdom is that the GOP Establishment hates Cruz. Then who are all of these very rich people that are giving so much money to Cruz? Who are the very rich people going directly against the GOP Establishment? And just how hateful, mean and despicable are the beliefs of these very rich people? These are people that look at Boehner and McConnell and think, "you're not racist enough or mean enough for us". Because I guarantee you, Cruz has promised to do whatever these people tell him to do.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:49
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Third World Reggin posted:trump literally tried to join the reform party in 2000 but left since they are a mess Nixon had a Democratic Congress that forced the EPA on him. Trump would have a Republican Congress that would open the blood gates and kill us all.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:50
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Litany Unheard posted:The solution to that isn't "oh well, better get rid of it altogether." It kind of is the solution, as long as it's accompanied by structural tax reform like taxing hedge funders--especially since both parties are a-ok with the status quo of allowing billionaires to evade the estate tax.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:53
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Litany Unheard posted:Nixon had a Democratic Congress that forced the EPA on him. Trump would have a Republican Congress that would open the blood gates and kill us all. Blood gates out of you know, wherever
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Aug 24, 2015 02:53
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radical meme posted:You guys can't see the forest for the trees. Jeb's haul is irrelevant. Look at the money Cruz has. Conventional wisdom is that the GOP Establishment hates Cruz. Then who are all of these very rich people that are giving so much money to Cruz? Who are the very rich people going directly against the GOP Establishment? And just how hateful, mean and despicable are the beliefs of these very rich people? These are people that look at Boehner and McConnell and think, "you're not racist enough or mean enough for us". Because I guarantee you, Cruz has promised to do whatever these people tell him to do. A lot of it is poo poo like this - a singe guy who gave $10 million to Ted Cruz, or two guys who gave $5 million each to Scott Walker.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:53
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Wow. That's like something you would expect Bernie Sanders to say, coming from the Republican frontrunner. Paul Krugman made the point a few days ago that Trump is hitching onto a resurgence of economic populism for the Right. He even made this speculative chart:  I believe Trump has said he is going to release a second detailed plan after his immigration one, this time about tax policy, before the second debate next month. It should lead to an interesting debate. William Bear fucked around with this message at 02:59 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 02:53
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Willa Rogers posted:It kind of is the solution, as long as it's accompanied by structural tax reform like taxing hedge funders--especially since both parties are a-ok with the status quo of allowing billionaires to evade the tax. You're going to trade the estate tax for one brought to you by the people who have systematically weakened tax laws for the past half-century? Good luck. echronorian posted:Blood gates out of you know, wherever 
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Aug 24, 2015 02:55
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William Bear posted:Paul Krugman made the point a few days ago that Trump is hitching onto a resurgence of economic populism for the Right. He even made this speculative chart: the gently caress is this supposed to be?
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Aug 24, 2015 02:56
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radical meme posted:You guys can't see the forest for the trees. Jeb's haul is irrelevant. Look at the money Cruz has. Conventional wisdom is that the GOP Establishment hates Cruz. Then who are all of these very rich people that are giving so much money to Cruz? Who are the very rich people going directly against the GOP Establishment? And just how hateful, mean and despicable are the beliefs of these very rich people? These are people that look at Boehner and McConnell and think, "you're not racist enough or mean enough for us". Because I guarantee you, Cruz has promised to do whatever these people tell him to do. For Cruz, it's 3 newly minted billionaires (fracking in Texas, I believe) that he convinced to bankroll him, and then fundraising they've subsequently done on his behalf.
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Aug 24, 2015 02:58
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William Bear posted:Wow. That's like something you would expect Bernie Sanders to say, coming from the Republican frontrunner. of course libertarians are chaotic neutral
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Aug 24, 2015 02:59
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Excelzior posted:the gently caress is this supposed to be? Here, this should explain it. 
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Aug 24, 2015 03:06
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Wanamingo posted:Here, this should explain it. Lol.
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Aug 24, 2015 03:12
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Neurolimal posted:
lol no his voters do not give a poo poo about the economy beyond "gently caress you got mine" it's just all revanchism hth
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Aug 24, 2015 03:16
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Neurolimal posted:Surprisingly not that big a swerve from Trump: I've always wondered what paying off the debt completely would mean for US and global economies, or if the world would basically keep on truckin' minus the "China owns the US via DEBT!  " non-issue.I'm guessing it wouldn't be anywhere near the significance of dumping 5+ trillion dollars in to rebuilding and upgrading our infrastructure or improving education and healthcare.
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Aug 24, 2015 03:18
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:lol no He's going to give Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico, and California to Mexico? 
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Aug 24, 2015 03:22
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The Potomac will run red with the blood of the anti-
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Aug 24, 2015 03:24
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WSJ is saying biden leaning toward running
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Aug 24, 2015 03:27
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This is where a LOT of us in the GOP stand. The top tax rate has no business being as high as ~40%. And it wouldn't need to be if (1) we spent less, and (2) we treated all income the same. Based on IRS data re: adjusted gross income, a flat tax on ALL income with no separate treatment of capital gains of somewhere in the mid 20s % would not only equal current revenue levels, but actually would have been enough for a net surplus in the aughts. I include KEEPING EITC in this, as well as not applying that flat rate until $20,000 in adjusted gross income. I actually spent countless hours researching this for a project. EDIT: found my old spreadsheet with IRS adjusted gross income data (they provided brackets i.e. the amount of AGI from people with income between X and Y in $10,000 intervals. From FY 2000 through FY 2011 we incurred an actual net deficit of $5.7 Trillion. The plan I came up with was: (1) Flat 25% individual income tax rate on ALL forms of income, and keeping the EITC, and not applying the tax until $25,000 in AGI, and a corporate income tax rate of zero to fund NON-SS/Medicare. (2) Combined flat 12% SS/Medicare tax (currently wages only, 15.3% combined until around $118,000, where SS part drops out) on ALL forms of income and on corporate income to fund SS/Medicare. Plan would have produced net surplus from FY 2000 - FY 2011 of $1.2 Trillion. EDIT 2: that's with NO spending cuts. With a 10% reduction in discretionary spending and no cuts to ss/medicare, 25% rate can be appied at $40,000 income and above and produces 1.1 Trillion net surplus FY 2000 - FY 2011 Boosted_C5 fucked around with this message at 03:40 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 03:30
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Evil Fluffy posted:I've always wondered what paying off the debt completely would mean for US and global economies, or if the world would basically keep on truckin' minus the "China owns the US via DEBT! The financial world would have a mad scramble to find some other 'risk free' investment, and we'd save about $200 billion a year on interest payments.
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Aug 24, 2015 03:30
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Abel Wingnut posted:WSJ is saying biden leaning toward running Boosted_C5 posted:This is where a LOT of us in the GOP stand. Nessus fucked around with this message at 03:33 on Aug 24, 2015 |
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Aug 24, 2015 03:31
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Biden V Trump in a Presidential debate would be the greatest Presidential debate of my lifetime. It sounds so amazing. Very unlikely and all that, but you can't say you wouldn't want to see Biden and Trump going at each other.
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Aug 24, 2015 03:35
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echronorian posted:Biden V Trump in a Presidential debate would be the greatest Presidential debate of my lifetime. It sounds so amazing. Very unlikely and all that, but you can't say you wouldn't want to see Biden and Trump going at each other. If Biden splits the establishment vote, won't that help Bernie?
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Aug 24, 2015 03:37
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