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I don't get the point of "Unfavorables" this early in the race - Bush is the candidate every "serious" pollster keeps ramming down our throats and yet he's nearly as bad as The Donald who somehow has no chance 
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Aug 26, 2015 04:39
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Mrit posted:June *2016* Oops
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Aug 26, 2015 04:40
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Those downplaying Trump's chances would be more convincing if the republicans had a candidate strong enough to beat out Ben Carson for the #2 spot.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:40
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Re: people dropping out: Rand Paul narrowly avoided having to drop out this past weekend, he only succeeded in convincing the republican committee in Kentucky to let him run for both Senate/Presidency by having 70% of them not show up for the vote. Also Rick Perry's Iowa campaign chair just quit...to join team Trump.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:40
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Brannock posted:Case in point. You said he'd sink himself, then said wouldn't make it past June, then you changed it to say he wouldn't make it to the first debate, then you changed it to say that his ceiling was only 10%, ... and so on ... I'll admit that he's surprised me in his resiliency so far, but this part of the primary is impossible to predict. The outcome of the voting, less so. Could he win in Iowa? Sure. Maybe some other states too if he gets lucky. My guess is he won't, but that's just a guess. I'm certain he won't be the nominee.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:41
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Brannock posted:Oops You filthy shill!
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Aug 26, 2015 04:41
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Excelzior posted:I don't get the point of "Unfavorables" this early in the race - Bush is the candidate every "serious" pollster keeps ramming down our throats and yet he's nearly as bad as The Donald who somehow has no chance It's because unlike Trump, Bush has the establishment endorsements, which, are one of the best, if not the best, indication as to who will win the nomination in the end.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:41
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Gyges posted:It's not that Trump has no chance at winning, he does have a chance. However it sure as gently caress isn't a 60% chance. There's way too much working against him for that. I believe it's been said before, but the Republican Primary campaign most resembling Trumps is that of ol' Noun, Verb, and 9/11. Could Trump finally be the one guy who bucks all the historic trends, built in structural hurdles, and innate Tumpness? Sure, it's possible. But it sure as poo poo isn't more than likely. Before you start laying the good odds on Trump, you need more supporting evidence than the only guy with near universal name recognition who is known as a world class media whore leading in the polls. Seems like you're taking a step back. At least Neurotic Jew has balls. Be mindful that if you get on my bad side, I may just have Neurotic Jew namedrop you in his essay on smug idiocy. 
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Aug 26, 2015 04:41
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Rocks posted:Isn't Gravis a terrible polling company? Yooge error banding, I assume.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:43
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Rocks posted:Isn't Gravis a terrible polling company? It has Walker at 3.5% so I'm gonna choose to believe.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:43
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Malloreon posted:
RIP Trump
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Aug 26, 2015 04:45
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MisterJed posted:what's on Rand's arm? Shirt sleeves that do not fit him at all
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Aug 26, 2015 04:46
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Rocks posted:Isn't Gravis a terrible polling company? It's a poll of registered voters something like 7 months before an actual election where no one but Trump gets any media attention. Of course Trump is going to crush it. As for Clinton, the only thing anyone has heard about her recently is that she's totally being for real investigated for some emails and could be arrested at any moment. Given the time, circumstances, and composition of the group those aren't very surprising results. Which is the biggest issue with people making real predictions off polling right now, it's all near total dog poo poo.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:49
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OctoberBlues posted:Shirt sleeves that do not fit him at all That shirt is made for a man who's four inches taller
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Aug 26, 2015 04:49
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Lyapunov Unstable posted:Joementum is awesome and is the main reason why I read these threads, but yeah poo poo's unpredictable, and predictions (when we're this low on data and predictively powerful models) are just guesses. Joementum is in fact awesome, and he's also very reasonable, and I just take incredible joy in seeing reasonable people's reasonable opinions end up upended because I am a bad person probably. Additionally, Joementum has the best history and it's always worth an excuse to trawl through it. Joementum posted:I'll admit that he's surprised me in his resiliency so far, but this part of the primary is impossible to predict. The outcome of the voting, less so. Could he win in Iowa? Sure. Maybe some other states too if he gets lucky. My guess is he won't, but that's just a guess. I'm certain he won't be the nominee. What would it take for you to believe he has a real chance of becoming the nominee? (or, if he's forced out and runs third party, do better than the Republican nominee in the general and thus become the de facto actual Republican nominee)
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Aug 26, 2015 04:49
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Mitt Romney posted:If I recall correctly, at this time in 2007 no one even thought Obama had a chance at winning the nomination. A lot's going to change until 2016 and Trump isn't going to be on top by then. The day he announced he was running, it made headlines everywhere. I picked up a newspaper at a gas station (It was across the front page) with a few friends and showed it to them and said "This is our next President." and it was nothing but unstoppable momentum to the presidency. Philthy fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 04:49
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Gyges posted:It's a poll of registered voters something like 7 months before an actual election where no one but Trump gets any media attention. Of course Trump is going to crush it. As for Clinton, the only thing anyone has heard about her recently is that she's totally being for real investigated for some emails and could be arrested at any moment. No I mean aren't they literally a terrible polling company? I recall their poo poo in 2012 being totally amateur. Them and Rasmussen
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Aug 26, 2015 04:50
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GlyphGryph posted:
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Aug 26, 2015 04:51
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Brannock posted:That shirt is made for a man who's four inches taller He also wishes he was a baller, and if he had a donor he would call her. Philthy posted:The day he announced he was running, it made headlines everywhere. I picked up a newspaper at a gas station (It was across the front page) with a few friends and showed it to them and said "This is our next President." and it was nothing but unstoppable momentum to the presidency. I want everyone saying "Obama came out of nowhere in 2007" to go watch his speech at the 2004 DNC so they can find out how loving wrong wrong wrong wronger than wrong they are. E: https://youtu.be/eWynt87PaJ0 it's less than 20 minutes long. FAUXTON fucked around with this message at 04:59 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 04:51
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Malloreon posted:Also Rick Perry's Iowa campaign chair just quit...to join team Trump. Just a guess, but it might be because Perry stopped paying his staff and everyone else is already staffed up.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:54
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GlyphGryph posted:What would it take for you to believe he has a real chance of becoming the nominee? (or, if he's forced out and runs third party, do better than the Republican nominee in the general and thus become the de facto actual Republican nominee) If he's leading the delegate count coming out of Super Tuesday, obviously I'd have to concede he's got a chance at the nomination. Most of the states went along with the RNC and backed up to that date, so there aren't going to be any spoiler states before March 1 like Florida was in earlier cycles. He could win a couple of the carve out states and still easily fall apart on Super Tuesday. I don't think it will be possible for an independent candidate to get ballot access in enough states to seriously challenge the major party candidates. If he gets the Libertarian Party nomination (*please* do this, Donald) then it'd be a fun fall but I'd need to see it with my own eyes and probably still not believe it for him to do better than a major party candidate. I also bet in that instance the LWV would change the debate rules to exclude him.
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Aug 26, 2015 04:56
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Dahbadu posted:Seems like you're taking a step back. At least Neurotic Jew has balls. Where have I backtracked? You're vastly overstating the likelihood of Nominee Trump while off hand dismissing the arguments of anyone who isn't getting President Trump tattoos. At least those over selling Bernie are giving into the good feels. But you're doing it for Trump. Donald Trump.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:00
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Joementum posted:If he's leading the delegate count coming out of Super Tuesday, obviously I'd have to concede he's got a chance at the nomination. Most of the states went along with the RNC and backed up to that date, so there aren't going to be any spoiler states before March 1 like Florida was in earlier cycles. He could win a couple of the carve out states and still easily fall apart on Super Tuesday. does the league of women voters still host debates? i thought they cut them out after they let perot in
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Aug 26, 2015 05:01
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GlyphGryph posted:Joementum is in fact awesome, and he's also very reasonable I concur wholeheartedly. (I just disagree with how he's looking at this race. Of course, *I* could be the idiot and I'm totally willing to admit this once everything shakes out.) Also, I really dig your posts too!
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Aug 26, 2015 05:02
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Philthy posted:The day he announced he was running, it made headlines everywhere. I picked up a newspaper at a gas station (It was across the front page) with a few friends and showed it to them and said "This is our next President." and it was nothing but unstoppable momentum to the presidency. It wasn't all roses in 2007 for Obama. Anyway apply it to McCain then in 2007. His campaign was dead and he one the nomination. Cain? Perry? The point I was making was that a lot can change between now and the primaries. Trump isn't going to win the nomination and it's wishful thinking to even think it has a realistic chance of happening. There are multiple field organizations, the entire GOP establishment and hundreds of millions of dollars that will be behind a single candidate and it won't be Trump. And I highly doubt that Trump will put enough money in his campaign to matter. At most I see Trump doing some kind of deal with the GOP to not run as an independent. I hope I'm wrong and he runs independent though. He's certainly made it further then I thought he would.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:02
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Joementum posted:I also bet in that instance the LWV would change the debate rules to exclude him. League of WOMEN Voters? They'd have to have blood coming out of their wherevers to exclude him.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:02
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Kalman posted:Just a guess, but it might be because Perry stopped paying his staff and everyone else is already staffed up. Absolutely that's the reason. that means, though, that Perry is quitting soon, so the whole "no one will quit till February" isn't gonna happen.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:06
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Mitt Romney posted:It wasn't all roses in 2007 for Obama. Anyway apply it to McCain then in 2007. His campaign was dead and he one the nomination. Cain? Perry? The point I was making was that a lot can change between now and the primaries. I don't agree that it would have been that remarkable for Cain and Perry to have come out of the 2007-2008 primaries unscathed. It in fact happened. edit back to reality - who does Perry endorse? Does he endorse?
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Aug 26, 2015 05:06
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Malloreon posted:Also Rick Perry's Iowa campaign chair just quit...to join team Trump. Is winning the support of someone who thought Rick "Ooops" Perry was the horse to back much a feather for anyone's cap?
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Aug 26, 2015 05:06
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Mitt Romney posted:There are multiple field organizations, the entire GOP establishment and hundreds of millions of dollars that will be behind a single candidate and it won't be Trump. Who?
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Aug 26, 2015 05:07
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Can we have these essays be erotic fan fic of trump
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Aug 26, 2015 05:07
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Third World Reggin posted:Can we have these essays be erotic fan fic of trump Megyn Kelly tsundere anime
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Aug 26, 2015 05:08
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Mitt Romney posted:It wasn't all roses in 2007 for Obama. Anyway apply it to McCain then in 2007. His campaign was dead and he one the nomination. Cain? Perry? The point I was making was that a lot can change between now and the primaries. McCain and Romney would be more apt for sure. The GOP primaries are a bloodbath of epic proportions. You have people like Trump always coming out early and they implode. The scary thing is that the people who just kind of hang back and chill are the ones who make the nomination. God I hope Walker doesn't make it to the end.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:09
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Gyges posted:Where have I backtracked? You're vastly overstating the likelihood of Nominee Trump while off hand dismissing the arguments of anyone who isn't getting President Trump tattoos. At least those over selling Bernie are giving into the good feels. But you're doing it for Trump. Donald Trump. I think you'll find that if Trump is the winner, 60% will seem pretty reasonable in hindsight, if not bold and prescient. And my issue has always been more with people being smug and attacking others unreasonably. Also, if I win, your name is going in the essay! 
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Aug 26, 2015 05:10
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Aliquid posted:I don't agree that it would have been that remarkable for Cain and Perry to have come out of the 2007-2008 primaries unscathed. It in fact happened. Not sure what you're saying about reality- Cain and Perry both approached 30% and then crashed. Just like Trump is probably going to. To think that Trump is going to win the nomination is a bit unrealistic. Bush: 
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Aug 26, 2015 05:12
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i think the nation is stupid enough to do it
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Aug 26, 2015 05:13
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Trump has like ten times the charisma that Cain and Perry combined did. I know it's very early but this isn't anything like previous elections. People are also pushing back against the idea that you can just spend your way to an election victory regardless of the candidate's actual quality.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:14
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Mitt Romney posted:Bush But Bush has those high unfavourables and high name recognition that everyone says is going to be Trump's undoing. Also, if any candidate is like the others you named doing the old surge and purge, it's him - he was on top and has since plummeted and lots of Republican voters seem to have moved on. To top it all off, his fundraising apparently hasn't been going very well lately either. I am 100% certain at this point that Bush is not going to be the nominee. He think he's got a smaller chance than Trump does, and being honest I don't think Trump has much of a chance either. (but I'm still rooting for him!) Literally the only thing Bush has going for him his big money donors, and he has shown every indication of being willing to gently caress up repeatedly until they start moving on to someone else. GlyphGryph fucked around with this message at 05:18 on Aug 26, 2015 |
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Aug 26, 2015 05:15
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mitt romney gonna have to jump back in
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Aug 26, 2015 05:17
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GlyphGryph posted:I am 100% certain at this point that Bush is not going to be the nominee. He think he's got a smaller chance than Trump does, and being honest I don't think Trump has much of a chance either. (but I'm still rooting for him!) Literally the only thing Bush has going for him his big money donors, and he has shown every indication of being willing to gently caress up repeatedly until they start moving on to someone else. It probably didn't help he spoke "mexican" during a conference. No one understood a word he said and instantly went into rage like the last time they called support and had to press 1 for american while swearing that mexican was even an option.
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Aug 26, 2015 05:19
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