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GreyjoyBastard posted:While I think your assessment is very solid, your metaphors are getting alarmingly mixed. The government's intervention is like untrained firefighters blindly hosing a fire in a Tianjin warehouse that, unknown to them, is filled with dangerous chemicals in spite of all regulations and common sense. edit: New page Kassad fucked around with this message at 08:57 on Aug 28, 2015 |
# ? Aug 28, 2015 08:54 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 15:20 |
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Fojar38 posted:It still is. NEED TOILET PAPER posted:Oh, the Chinese economy is still hosed. It's just that the mask slipped off for a bit over the last few days, but rest assured, it is now securely fastened once again. classic from the weirdo GBS disaster live posters. Just accept that you lost and the based pensioners of China will forever outfox global capital. Shadoer posted:Yeah we got about 2 weeks, maybe a month tops before those foreign cash reserves and pensions run out. Then the real fun begins. Well you've clearly pulled this figure out of your rear end but ok.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 08:59 |
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lmaoboy1998 posted:classic from the weirdo GBS disaster live posters. Poe's Law itt
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 09:09 |
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PerpetualSelf posted:So Zero Hedge keeps saying the end is near and that China dumping treasuries is QE in reverse. How true is all that? Completely untrue.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 09:11 |
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Who are buying right now those foreign treasury bonds? I still can't find that information anywhere?
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 09:16 |
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Vire posted:Who are buying right now those foreign treasury bonds? I still can't find that information anywhere? The fed. Secret QE4
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 10:30 |
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PerpetualSelf posted:So Zero Hedge keeps saying the end is near and that China dumping treasuries is QE in reverse. How true is all that? Zero Hedge is the Debka Files of Finance. It sounds like the sourcing is good, it can make the end of the world as we know it feel imminent, but in reality it's high-level click-bait for very niche markets.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 10:34 |
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Zero Hedge occasionally posts relevant stuff, so it can be worth checking from time to time, but most of their posts are "Obama is the fascist Antichrist"-level political commentary and assorted apocalyptic doomsaying.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 10:47 |
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http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-likely-to-drag-the-world-into-global-recession-citigroup-says-20150828-gj9w1g.htmlquote:China likely to drag the world into global recession, Citigroup says e: bit dubious about the "global growth rate below 2 per cent -- which is in my definition a global recession" thing but otherwise yeah. e2: economist friend tells me the global growth rate below 2 per cent being a recession thing is true because of inflation, so whatever Zohar fucked around with this message at 11:31 on Aug 28, 2015 |
# ? Aug 28, 2015 11:18 |
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 11:51 |
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Ppl in this thread are vastly overstating the pension thing btw
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:05 |
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tbp posted:Ppl in this thread are vastly overstating the pension thing btw it's $300 billion+ of pension funds.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:09 |
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Zohar posted:it's $300 billion+ of pension funds. Okay??
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:11 |
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tbp posted:Okay?? What's the issue?
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:18 |
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Wanda just paid 650 million for the weekend triathlon corporation.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:28 |
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Cultural Imperial posted:Wanda just paid 650 million for the weekend triathlon corporation. What makes them worth 650 million?
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:30 |
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Zohar posted:What's the issue? The effects of the eventual investment in the markets by the pension funds has been overstated in this thread I think
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:34 |
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tbp posted:The effects of the eventual investment in the markets by the pension funds has been overstated in this thread I think Apart from the one guy who said the 'fun will begin' when they run out of pension funds people have just been saying that it's symbolic of the Chinese government's lack of options / perceived incompetence afaik? And that the main concern is the effects of the market on teh pension funds rather than the other way round. That seems right to me. Was there something else you're thinking of?
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:37 |
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Zohar posted:Apart from the one guy who said the 'fun will begin' when they run out of pension funds people have just been saying that it's symbolic of the Chinese government's lack of options / perceived incompetence afaik? And that the main concern is the effects of the market on teh pension funds rather than the other way round. That seems right to me. Was there something else you're thinking of? All the ppl live posting that any uptick was a result of "pension fund money"
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 13:51 |
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Freakazoid_ posted:Oh wow, you mean 4chan might not have lied about india having designated making GBS threads streets? It's more like a making GBS threads field. Remember, only like 30% of India's population is considered urbanized (this is opposed to ~50% in China).
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:21 |
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Jumpingmanjim posted:What makes them worth 650 million? That's the problem. The paywalled ft article speculates it's worth barely anything.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:24 |
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computer parts posted:It's more like a making GBS threads field. Being urbanized doesnt seem to be proof against street making GBS threads, if China is any example
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:32 |
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Mange Mite posted:being urbanized doesnt seem to be proof against street making GBS threads, if china is any example My point is that they don't usually have a street to poo poo in. Maybe a country road.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:33 |
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What I'm hearing is that the Chinese stock market has almost nothing to do with the overall Chinese economy. So all of the underlining issues with their economy (real estate bubble, rapidly aging population, currency manipulation) are still there. It just looks better to the outside world because in other countries the stock market is more closely tied to economic health. In reality it's measurably worse because efforts to fix the fake economy used resources needed by the real economy. It's possible we're overthinking the pension thing, though. Even if the investments lose money, the negative impact can be pushed out decades. The bad side effects will probably be more aggressive investors, who now know Mulan will come save them when they make bad bets. Zohar posted:http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-likely-to-drag-the-world-into-global-recession-citigroup-says-20150828-gj9w1g.html Considering Citigroup helped successfully drag the U.S. into a recession, I think we should probably listen to them.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:42 |
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computer parts posted:It's more like a making GBS threads field. India.odt - The making GBS threads Fields
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:42 |
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Look there's no pussyfooting this so let's just get it over with: the Chinese are unapologetic racists and hate Indians. If you rant to discuss this further, take it to the china politics thread. We're all here for the economic schadenfreude.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:43 |
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All discussion of China inevitably leads to street making GBS threads.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 14:48 |
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tbp posted:All the ppl live posting that any uptick was a result of "pension fund money" Yes, you should certainly take random internet posters joke posts on a comedy forum as seriously considered position statements reflecting majority opinion. That always works out well. You do agree that the timing of Chinese government hurriedly enacting laws allowing a vast pool of resources to be dumped into the stock market at the moment it's falling through the floor looks rather sketchy, yes? Is the exact amount of pension funds thrown on the fire really the interesting point of discussion or the fact that it was done at all?
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 17:51 |
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My understanding of the pension thing in particular is that it was likely planned all along, is not a bad or terrible thing in and of itself, and will have a minor effect on what's going on right now. The kerfuffle is more about the timing of the move and how it feeds into perceptions of government scrambling to stabilize the market.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 17:55 |
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Vire posted:Who are buying right now those foreign treasury bonds? I still can't find that information anywhere? Apparently so many people that dumping $400 billion or so of treasuries on the market practically over night hasn't even moved the interest rate more than a couple of basis points. BTW, this is more than the US Government has issued YTD and almost as much as was issued all of last year.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 17:58 |
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My impression of the Chinese pension system is that it only ever existed on paper and most of the money would end up siphoned off by corruption anyways, but still, this is pretty much a guarantee nobody will be getting any of that money back, as opposed to just a likelihood
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 19:29 |
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tbp posted:All the ppl live posting that any uptick was a result of "pension fund money" It's a bad joke. Krispy Kareem posted:Considering Citigroup helped successfully drag the U.S. into a recession, I think we should probably listen to them. I dunno about Citigroup but Buiter is pretty well known for calling it as he sees it, he was on the right side in 2008 and a critic of Fed policy and Citigroup strategy at the time, he joined Citi in like 2010. Mozi posted:My understanding of the pension thing in particular is that it was likely planned all along, is not a bad or terrible thing in and of itself, and will have a minor effect on what's going on right now. The kerfuffle is more about the timing of the move and how it feeds into perceptions of government scrambling to stabilize the market. It won't have an important effect on the stock market or the economic slowdown more broadly, but it certainly is a bad thing and I remember it being called out as a bad thing by a number of investors when it was first announced in June. The explicit purpose of it is to keep the value of the stock market up (from June: "China may invest its huge USD 500 billion pension fund into the volatile stock market, a move officials say will keep up its value"). Investing pension funds in an obviously unstable stock market is a silly idea. The fact that it's fed into the mounting image of Chinese government incompetence is justified.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 19:47 |
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I remember GWB sent legislation to allow Social Security to be invested in Wall Street. This was at the start of his second term and years before the financial crisis. Good thing that idea never came to fruition or all of that money for retirees would have disappeared.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 20:04 |
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I think why it wasn't such a terrible thing was that the current options for pension investments are very poor/limited? Can't find my sources right now.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 20:29 |
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Are the Chinese pensions that are being invested like social security or like 401ks?
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 20:33 |
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Zohar posted:It's a bad joke. idk considering how many ppl were asking basic finance questions before i do not necessarily believe that it was all jokes
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 20:35 |
Vladimir Putin posted:I remember GWB sent legislation to allow Social Security to be invested in Wall Street. This was at the start of his second term and years before the financial crisis. Good thing that idea never came to fruition or all of that money for retirees would have disappeared. Like anyone currently under 50 is ever going to see a loving cent of Social Security anyway.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 21:15 |
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hailthefish posted:Like anyone currently under 50 is ever going to see a loving cent of Social Security anyway. You will if you live past 70
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 21:21 |
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hailthefish posted:Like anyone currently under 50 is ever going to see a loving cent of Social Security anyway. People have been saying this since current Social Security recipients were teenagers.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 21:32 |
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# ? May 25, 2024 15:20 |
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Nintendo Kid posted:People have been saying this since current Social Security recipients were teenagers. In all seriousness, I think there's a legitimate worry. SS is solvent for a long while without any changes, and will require a modest tax increase that could probably eventually be lowered once the Baby Boomers are all dead. That's not the issue. The issue is that before we ever get to that point we're likely to see retirement age increases that continue to gently caress over the poor (who aren't living longer) and manual laborers in lieu of tax increases or removing the regressive income tax cap.
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# ? Aug 28, 2015 21:38 |