GreyjoyBastard posted:

While I think your assessment is very solid, your metaphors are getting alarmingly mixed.

Fojar38 posted:

It still is.

NEED TOILET PAPER posted:

Oh, the Chinese economy is still hosed. It's just that the mask slipped off for a bit over the last few days, but rest assured, it is now securely fastened once again.

not really

Shadoer posted:

Yeah we got about 2 weeks, maybe a month tops before those foreign cash reserves and pensions run out. Then the real fun begins.

lmaoboy1998 posted:

classic from the weirdo GBS disaster live posters.

Just accept that you lost and the based pensioners of China will forever outfox global capital.

PerpetualSelf posted:

So Zero Hedge keeps saying the end is near and that China dumping treasuries is QE in reverse. How true is all that?

Vire posted:

Who are buying right now those foreign treasury bonds? I still can't find that information anywhere?

PerpetualSelf posted:

So Zero Hedge keeps saying the end is near and that China dumping treasuries is QE in reverse. How true is all that?

quote:

China likely to drag the world into global recession, Citigroup says

China is sliding into recession and the leadership will not respond quickly enough with large-scale fiscal policies that could avoid a major slowdown and stimulate demand, Citigroup's top economist Willem Buiter said.

The only thing to stop a Chinese recession, which the former external member of the Bank of England defines as 4 per cent growth on "the mendacious official data" for a year, is a consumption-oriented fiscal stimulus program funded by central government and monetised by the People's Bank of China, Buiter said.

"Despite the economy crying out for it, the Chinese leadership is not ready for this," said Buiter, the man who coined the term "Grexit" during the Greek debt crisis.

China "is an economy that's sliding into recession," the renowned chief economist at Citigroup told a media call hosted Thursday by the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Premier Li is seeking to defend a 7 per cent economic growth goal at a time when concern over slowing demand in China is fuelling volatility in global markets. The true rate of expansion "is probably something closer to 4.5 per cent, or less," Buiter said.

Li has repeatedly pledged to avoid stimulus similar to the one following the global financial crisis in 2008 that led to a surge in debt for local governments and corporations.

Some economists and investors have long questioned the accuracy of China's official growth data. When Li was party secretary of Liaoning province in 2007, he said that figures for gross domestic product were "man-made" and therefore unreliable, according to a diplomatic cable published by WikiLeaks in 2010. The median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg earlier this month put China's first-half GDP growth rate at 6.3 per cent, compared with the official figure of 7 per cent.

"They will respond, but they will respond too late to avoid a recession, which is likely to drag the global economy with it down to a global growth rate below 2 per cent -- which is in my definition a global recession," said Buiter, a former external member of the Bank of England.

The global economy will expand by 3 per cent this year, while China's is forecast to grow 6.9 per cent, the slowest pace in a quarter century, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

The boom and bust in the Shanghai Composite Index, which more than doubled in about a year before a selloff erased $7 trillion in market value in two months, is raising questions about "the competence of the Chinese authorities as managers of the macro economy," Buiter said.

The authorities first cheered the stock market rally "because quite a few of the local pundits believed that this was a great [way of deleveraging, or reducing debt] without paying for the corporate sector to have a stock market bubble," he said. That was followed by "panic and incompetent reaction" to the sharemarket turmoil, Buiter added in reference to China's unprecedented government intervention to support share prices.

tbp posted:

Ppl in this thread are vastly overstating the pension thing btw

Zohar posted:

it's $300 billion+ of pension funds.

tbp posted:

Okay??

Cultural Imperial posted:

Wanda just paid 650 million for the weekend triathlon corporation.

Zohar posted:

What's the issue?

tbp posted:

The effects of the eventual investment in the markets by the pension funds has been overstated in this thread I think

Zohar posted:

Apart from the one guy who said the 'fun will begin' when they run out of pension funds people have just been saying that it's symbolic of the Chinese government's lack of options / perceived incompetence afaik? And that the main concern is the effects of the market on teh pension funds rather than the other way round. That seems right to me. Was there something else you're thinking of?

Freakazoid_ posted:

Oh wow, you mean 4chan might not have lied about india having designated making GBS threads streets?

Jumpingmanjim posted:

What makes them worth 650 million?

computer parts posted:

It's more like a making GBS threads field.

Remember, only like 30% of India's population is considered urbanized (this is opposed to ~50% in China).

Mange Mite posted:

being urbanized doesnt seem to be proof against street making GBS threads, if china is any example

Zohar posted:

http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/china-likely-to-drag-the-world-into-global-recession-citigroup-says-20150828-gj9w1g.html


e: bit dubious about the "global growth rate below 2 per cent -- which is in my definition a global recession" thing but otherwise yeah.

e2: economist friend tells me the global growth rate below 2 per cent being a recession thing is true because of inflation, so whatever

computer parts posted:

It's more like a making GBS threads field.

tbp posted:

All the ppl live posting that any uptick was a result of "pension fund money"

Vire posted:

Who are buying right now those foreign treasury bonds? I still can't find that information anywhere?

tbp posted:

All the ppl live posting that any uptick was a result of "pension fund money"

Krispy Kareem posted:

Considering Citigroup helped successfully drag the U.S. into a recession, I think we should probably listen to them.

Mozi posted:

My understanding of the pension thing in particular is that it was likely planned all along, is not a bad or terrible thing in and of itself, and will have a minor effect on what's going on right now. The kerfuffle is more about the timing of the move and how it feeds into perceptions of government scrambling to stabilize the market.

Zohar posted:

Zohar posted:

It's a bad joke.

Vladimir Putin posted:

I remember GWB sent legislation to allow Social Security to be invested in Wall Street. This was at the start of his second term and years before the financial crisis. Good thing that idea never came to fruition or all of that money for retirees would have disappeared.

hailthefish posted:

Like anyone currently under 50 is ever going to see a loving cent of Social Security anyway.

hailthefish posted:

Like anyone currently under 50 is ever going to see a loving cent of Social Security anyway.

Nintendo Kid posted:

People have been saying this since current Social Security recipients were teenagers.