Fantasy Football 2015: Value Based Guessing

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MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

What is the general consensus on Jarred Hayne?

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:01

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 14:52

Azhais: Feb 5, 2007; Switchblade Switcharoo

MacheteZombie posted:

What is the general consensus on Jarred Hayne?

I imagine he's going to be practice squaded, but it's not like the 49ers have anyone else to keep on the active roster so who knows?

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:05

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

Prophecy120 posted:

Do you really think Murray, Mathews and Sproles will get touches every week? Seems like a stretch to me.

Yes. Sproles is going to be split wide and is a "safety valve"/check down target.

Not a safe bet or a RB3 going into the season, but I can see flexing both he and Ryan Mathews on any given week or as a bye week play.

e: Not that it matters, but I'm in Philly and pay attention to beat reports and the like. Sproles' usage in preseason thus far makes me see an increased role for him, as well as Chip's comments and stuff like this.

My takeaway is that I think Murray is being taken far too high and I can see a scenario where all three of those backs (maybe 4 with Kenjon Barner) could be viable this season.

The only two offensive players from Philly I want to bank on are JMatt and Bradford, and even the latter until his knees explode.

Gyshall fucked around with this message at 17:16 on Sep 3, 2015

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:05

MacheteZombie: Feb 4, 2007

Azhais posted:

I imagine he's going to be practice squaded, but it's not like the 49ers have anyone else to keep on the active roster so who knows?

I was just reading on Rotoworld that he played as the No. 2 back on Saturday, so I'm guessing he'll at least make the team?

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:07

Ayudo: Mar 30, 2006

MacheteZombie posted:

What is the general consensus on Jarred Hayne?

He's never played football before. Likely special teams contributor.

E: they don't pass block or catch forward passes in rugby.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:08

Fight Club Sandwich: Apr 29, 2006; you want a piece of me???

Zombie Tsunami posted:

Yeah dude. This could theoretically go all the way to the Supreme Court.

I am excited for the future academy award winning film starring leonardo dicaprio as tom brady and jonah hill as the ballboy in charge of deflating

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:14

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

MacheteZombie posted:

What is the general consensus on Jarred Hayne?

He's going to make the team as a returner. He's probably going to beat Kendall Hunter out for a roster spot but if he gets more than like 20 carries this season something has gone horribly wrong.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:21

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Spoeank posted:

He's going to make the team as a returner. He's probably going to beat Kendall Hunter out for a roster spot but if he gets more than like 20 carries this season something has gone horribly wrong.

On the other hand if Hyde gets hurt, Hayne might be the best pure runner left on the team, and in that circumstance I could easily see the 49ers running him on early downs, Bryce Brown-in-2012 style.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:24

Spoeank: Jul 16, 2003; That's a nice set of 11 dynasty points there, it would be a shame if 3 rings were to happen with it

Franks Happy Place posted:

On the other hand if Hyde gets hurt, Hayne might be the best pure runner left on the team, and in that circumstance I could easily see the 49ers running him on early downs, Bryce Brown-in-2012 style.

Putting Hayne in that position is sub-optimal, since he can't do a lot of the finer things for the position (as others have alluded to) and his running style is conducive to getting blown up by a linebacker because he can't lower his pad level to save his life. Mike Davis would be the backup since he seems to be Not Fat Mike Davis now. Davis was disastrous in the first preseason game but has looked a lot better since then, which is why I think they cut bait on Hunter.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:26

Cart Mountain: Nov 1, 2004

In a QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE format where all TD's are worth 6 and it's PPR, QB's draft priority shouldn't be that inflated right? I.E. I should still be looking to pick from the top 2 WR/RB tiers before I consider a QB if available, instead of reaching for one in the 1st.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:29

Franks Happy Place: Mar 15, 2011; It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion. It is by the dank of Sapho that thoughts acquire speed, the lips acquire stains, stains become a warning. It is by weed alone I set my mind in motion.

Spoeank posted:

Putting Hayne in that position is sub-optimal, since he can't do a lot of the finer things for the position (as others have alluded to) and his running style is conducive to getting blown up by a linebacker because he can't lower his pad level to save his life.

Honestly I think he's learning the position really fast. Being a peak physical athlete with a professional work ethic is a lot different than being a raw rookie from some D3 school, or a lineman switching from defense to offense or whatever.

The pad level thing is a concern, but DeMarco Murray and Chris Ivory do that all of the time. I really do think that if Hyde goes down past the halfway mark (when Hayne will likely have more of this stuff sorted out), they could trot out their Australian celebrity just to save some face. That team is hot garbage, and with a few more injuries they would be desperate for better narratives.

Edit: Bryce Brown in 2012 or Jerick McKinnin last year are similar scenarios. Neither team really trusted those RBs, but they were forced to run them out of a combination of overall depth chart talent deficit, as well as a "gently caress it, ship's going down anyway" fanservice.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:30

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

Cart Mountain posted:

In a QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE format where all TD's are worth 6 and it's PPR, QB's draft priority shouldn't be that inflated right? I.E. I should still be looking to pick from the top 2 WR/RB tiers before I consider a QB if available, instead of reaching for one in the 1st.

Having 6PT Passing TD's just makes the elite quarterbacks MUCH more valuable because they tend to throw a lot more TD's. So you really want to get a top tier QB at the right time. In a standard league, you could easily wait until the 7th-8th for a Tannehill, who wouldn't put up much worse numbers than a Manning. In 6PT TD leagues, you are sacrificing a lot of points waiting on a QB. I would say you should look at drafting a QB by the 4th, maybe the 5th.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 17:48

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

Does this suspension stuff inflate or deflate Gronk's value?

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:05

LGD: Sep 25, 2004

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

Does this suspension stuff inflate or deflate Gronk's value?

Tom Brady is throwing to him for 4 more games, so I'm going to go with "inflate"

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:06

railroad terror: Jul 2, 2007; choo choo

Fight Club Sandwich posted:

I am excited for the future academy award winning film starring leonardo dicaprio as tom brady and jonah hill as the ballboy in charge of deflating

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:07

Diqnol: May 10, 2010

LGD posted:

Tom Brady is throwing to him for 4 more games, so I'm going to go with "inflate"

On the other hand, rookie QBs love to throw to the TE

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:09

365 Nog Hogger: Jan 19, 2008; by Shine

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

On the other hand, rookie QBs love to throw to the TE

Brady loves gronk more than rookie tes love safety

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:14

pangstrom: Jan 25, 2003; Wedge Regret

Cart Mountain posted:

In a QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE format where all TD's are worth 6 and it's PPR, QB's draft priority shouldn't be that inflated right? I.E. I should still be looking to pick from the top 2 WR/RB tiers before I consider a QB if available, instead of reaching for one in the 1st.

I can't crunch the numbers in my head (I have a feel for 2QB but PPR pushes things back the other way), but go to some site where you can see how many points separate the "starting" players at the positions with that scoring system in 2014. Keep in mind that (if it's 10 teams) 20 QBs will be starting each week (with bye weeks that means Bortles and Fitzgeralds etc. might be making appearances), and that the number of RBs and WRs who emerge from fantasy irrelevance to put in useful stretches each season is larger than the number of QBs who do so... WRs are like 2x and RBs are like 4x more likely to get hurt than QBs, too. As always it doesn't make sense to jump on somebody at any position when somebody equivalent is around 2 rounds later, so some of this just depends on what everyone else is doing.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:16

89: Feb 24, 2006; #worldchamps

I got Brady in the 6th round, kinda early. But I'll take it!

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:21

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

Got him in the 11th in my draft last weekend. :getin:

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:28

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Cart Mountain posted:

In a QB/2RB/2WR/Flex/TE format where all TD's are worth 6 and it's PPR, QB's draft priority shouldn't be that inflated right? I.E. I should still be looking to pick from the top 2 WR/RB tiers before I consider a QB if available, instead of reaching for one in the 1st.

Rodgers or Luck are definitely worth a late 1st at least, given the positional advantage they give you, but you might be able to get them in the 2nd.

GUISSEPPE PIZZAPIE posted:

On the other hand, rookie QBs love to throw to the TE

Nope

http://www.4for4.com/fantasy-football/2015/preseason/do-rookie-quarterbacks-really-favor-tight-ends

quote:

The Bottom Line

When it comes to how teams might change their scheme with a rookie quarterback or how that quarterback might split up targets, there is no solid evidence that the tight end is going to inherently benefit from a first year quarterback. Receiving market share is going to vary by team based on personnel and coaching staff.

In comparison to the rest of the league, though, tight ends with rookie quarterbacks are generally going to see less volume than the average tight end. This is probably less of a function of teams with rookie quarterbacks avoiding the tight end, and more a result of overall team passing going down when an inexperienced player is under center. In either case, no tight end should get a bump in fantasy value based on the sole fact that they will be catching passes from a rookie.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:31

railroad terror: Jul 2, 2007; choo choo

I'm going to the Pats last preseason game tonight (Bills fan here). Definitely picked the worst possible night to go. I'll let everyone know how much :smug:

is present at Gillette tonight

Also, how Travaris Cadet does running the ball #waiverwire

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:34

Reik: Mar 8, 2004

Man, I feel so bad for Beer right now. He must be getting swamped with PMs asking for another update to the sheets he released yesterday but with the Tom Brady suspension accounted for.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:46

RCarr: Dec 24, 2007

I miss the good ole days when people used their own judgement to make decisions for themselves.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:47

LGD: Sep 25, 2004

RCarr posted:

I miss the good ole days when people used their own judgement to make decisions for themselves.

I sure don't, as I'd be screwed

# ? Sep 3, 2015 18:48

Leperflesh: May 17, 2007

Reik posted:

Man, I feel so bad for Beer right now. He must be getting swamped with PMs asking for another update to the sheets he released yesterday but with the Tom Brady suspension accounted for.

The OP is still pointing to sheets from over a week ago. Got a link to beersheets from yesterday?

Also re: Jarryd Hayne - he'll either make the team, or get sniped by another team. No way is he going to get practice squadded. Purely based on his special teams performance, there has to be a team in the league that will want him. I think he's likely to make the fifth spot on the niners roster, though. Purely based on his punt returns he's good enough - averaging 20 yards per return on six returns, and granted it's preaseason, but that's still fantastic. He's also shown the ability to make key tackles on kickoffs/punts. Being able to fill in on the occasional rushing play fills in the value.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2553967-san-francisco-49ers-who-jarryd-hayne-would-have-to-beat-out-to-make-the-roster

In terms of fantasy value, you'd only take him as a longshot on a keeper team, ideally in a league that gives points for return yardage, and even then, you're probably just hoping for a 2016 backup RB spot behind someone injury prone.

e. In my dream scenario, the niners trade Kendall Hunter for some help on the OL, and roster Hyde, Bush, Davis, Miller, and Hayne.

Leperflesh fucked around with this message at 19:13 on Sep 3, 2015

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:09

the_american_dream: Apr 12, 2008; GAHDAMN

The season needs to get here. im seriously contemplating swapping Mike Evans for ARob/Stevie

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:10

Reik: Mar 8, 2004

Leperflesh posted:

The OP is still pointing to sheets from over a week ago. Got a link to beersheets from yesterday?

Also re: Jarryd Hayne - he'll either make the team, or get sniped by another team. No way is he going to get practice squadded. Purely based on his special teams performance, there has to be a team in the league that will want him. I think he's likely to make the fifth spot on the niners roster, though. Purely based on his punt returns he's good enough - averaging 20 yards per return on six returns, and granted it's preaseason, but that's still fantastic. He's also shown the ability to make key tackles on kickoffs/punts. Being able to fill in on the occasional rushing play fills in the value.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2553967-san-francisco-49ers-who-jarryd-hayne-would-have-to-beat-out-to-make-the-roster

In terms of fantasy value, you'd only take him as a longshot on a keeper team, ideally in a league that gives points for return yardage, and even then, you're probably just hoping for a 2016 backup RB spot behind someone injury prone.

e. In my dream scenario, the niners trade Kendall Hunter for some help on the OL, and roster Hyde, Bush, Davis, Miller, and Hayne.

https://www.reddit.com/r/fantasyfootball/comments/3jclcq/beersheets_20150902/

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:13

MrSargent: Dec 23, 2003; Sometimes, there's a man, well, he's the man for his time and place. He fits right in there. And that's Jimmy T.

the_american_dream posted:

The season needs to get here. im seriously contemplating swapping Mike Evans for ARob/Stevie

Do not do this. Stay strong!

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:13

Teemu Pokemon: Jun 19, 2004; To sign them is my real test

With full no movement clause

Cmon guys, you IDP people need to join THE FRENZY

http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3735414

Also, if you've never done IDP before, it's a great way to learn. Trial by fire :getin:

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:25

wattershed: Dec 27, 2002; Radio got his free iPod, did you get yours???

Suave Fedora posted:

Which Floyd?

Michael

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:33

Boosh!: Apr 12, 2002; Oven Wrangler

Sorry, math is hard for me but in a .5ppr league, we added a flex spot to the standard 3WR 2RB set up. That would mean that RBs lose a little value correct?

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:52

Michael Corleone: Mar 30, 2011; by VideoGames

Boosh! posted:

Sorry, math is hard for me but in a .5ppr league, we added a flex spot to the standard 3WR 2RB set up. That would mean that RBs lose a little value correct?

Depends, you have to start 3 WR, you COULD start 3 RB, but you just have to look at value, and ya, it would bump up WR value a little just because you have to start 3. The PPR just makes them more of an option in flex, in no PPR I always flex RB's if I have them, or not in bye week hell.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:55

Gobias Ind.: Apr 5, 2007; If your girlfriend says hey to me that's our girlfriend now idc

I didn't really want anything to do with Peyton this year, but he fell all the way to the 77th pick in my 14 team work league, so I grabbed him. I'm starting to question myself, but that's great value, right? Standard QB scoring.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 19:59

Axl Rose: Apr 29, 2013

Doing some rearranging on my bench, and I've been going back and forth with counter offers for Stevie Johnson for a while. I think this last offer will lock it up, but I just wanted to check if you all thought I was crazy before I sent it:

I give: Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Garcon
I get: Doug Martin, Stevie Johnson

My RBs: Miller, Forte, Stewart, Ivory, David Cobb
My WRs: Bryant, Cooks, Steve Smith Sr, Pierre Garcon, Kendall Wright, Ty Montgomery

edit: Standard scoring

# ? Sep 3, 2015 20:00

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

wattershed posted:

Keeper league, inaugural season. WRs are Keenan Allen/Landry/AJ80/Michael Floyd/Perriman (I know...at least I'm stacked at RB)

While we all talked about remembering to grab Jordy Nelson in the draft, we all forgot and he's on the waiver wire.

I'm looking to pick him up, and I think I know who the hive mind would say is the right person to drop, but I'd like to hear your thoughts. 0 ppr, ~$5 increase to retain a guy for next season, so even at a $20 claim on Jordy it's still a steal.

As long as you have the bench space or an IR slot, I would drop either one of Floyd of Perriman, depending on how much risk you are comfortable with. While both have not-insignificant injuries, both are expected to play this season. I don't anticipate that Floyd's production will deviate much from what we've already seen and he shouldn't be more than a flex or bye option, whereas Perriman has a better shot of emerging as a top target for Flacco and is in a better position to provide a better return over the season. I would lean on dropping Floyd since you have 3 decent starting options anyway with your first three wideouts.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 20:04

Suave Fedora: Jun 10, 2004

Axl Rose posted:

Doing some rearranging on my bench, and I've been going back and forth with counter offers for Stevie Johnson for a while. I think this last offer will lock it up, but I just wanted to check if you all thought I was crazy before I sent it:

I give: Jonathan Stewart, Pierre Garcon
I get: Doug Martin, Stevie Johnson

My RBs: Miller, Forte, Stewart, Ivory, David Cobb
My WRs: Bryant, Cooks, Steve Smith Sr, Pierre Garcon, Kendall Wright, Ty Montgomery

edit: Standard scoring

definitely a fair trade. If all the Doug Martin hype is true, it could be a coup trade.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 20:09

sourdough: Apr 30, 2012

Gobias Ind. posted:

I didn't really want anything to do with Peyton this year, but he fell all the way to the 77th pick in my 14 team work league, so I grabbed him. I'm starting to question myself, but that's great value, right? Standard QB scoring.

Yeah, of course. He's a great bet to finish in the top 5, if not the top 3. His dip in production last year seems fair to attribute to his injury, not old age.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 20:09

Thwomp: Apr 10, 2003; BA-DUHHH; Grimey Drawer

Gobias Ind. posted:

I didn't really want anything to do with Peyton this year, but he fell all the way to the 77th pick in my 14 team work league, so I grabbed him. I'm starting to question myself, but that's great value, right? Standard QB scoring.

In a 14 team league, hell yeah that's a good value.

It's weird how different leagues get a different scramble of biases. I guess most everyone else in your work league had the same attitude towards Peyton.

For reference, in my family money 12 team league, Peyton went with the 18th pick.

# ? Sep 3, 2015 20:10

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# ? Jun 5, 2024 14:52

Gyshall: Feb 24, 2009; Had a couple of drinks.
Saw a couple of things.

I'm in Philly and just had an auction draft last night with friends. I spent my draft nominating all the Eagles players. Zach Ertz went for $18/$250

# ? Sep 3, 2015 20:14

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