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Zeroisanumber posted:He might if it's that or a shutdown during the election season. We'll see. I don't think he's adroit enough of a politician to know that picking a fight over PP isn't going to be a good thing.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:19
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SquadronROE posted:Everyone keeps saying Jeb! is bad at politics, but I'm not sure I see it. To a Democrat or non-vile person he might be saying some rather insensitive things but I don't see how it's any worse than what Trump or Cruz is doing. It's not a question of insensitivity. The problem is that he comes off as awkward and distant, that he doesn't seem to have a coherent image or policy plan, and that he's really bad at framing proposals and arguments in ways that appeal to voters. Whether or not what Trump and Cruz say is worse, they're better at saying it. Take the anchor babies thing. The problem with that from a campaign perspective wasn't that it was racially insensitive - I mean, it was racially insensitive and a bad thing to say, but Trump has had success saying things that are equally objectionable. The problem from a political perspective is that it didn't make any loving sense for Jeb Bush to say it. It fucks up his image as someone who's moderate on immigration and electable, and to no benefit whatsoever because it's not going to convince anyone on the right that he's an immigration hardliner. It also comes off as an unplanned gaffe because it fits in so poorly with the rest of his rhetoric and because he fumbled apologizing for it. And that's the kind of thing that he does constantly. Also the guy just comes across as an awkward putz. Fried Chicken posted:Candidates drop when they I could see that happening. The Republican establishment isn't stupid - if Bush's numbers continue to be so low, I think his support is going to dry up, and at a certain point I think some Republican bigwigs are going to start having some words with him. They might not be able to force him to drop but they can certainly make his life harder. But I think it'll take a good long time for that to happen.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:20
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BI NOW GAY LATER posted:I don't think he's adroit enough of a politician to know that picking a fight over PP isn't going to be a good thing. You don't get to be Speaker by being bad at politics.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:23
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Teddybear posted:They won't be cheering when the city hikes property taxes to pay for the multi-million dollar judgment in two years. Oppressing towelheads: Priceless.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:27
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Bob Ojeda posted:The Republican establishment isn't stupid Ehhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh
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Sep 11, 2015 18:28
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Fried Chicken posted:And what part of this will force Bush to drop out? Yeah, but you can make the same argument about Trump dropping out. A won't happen - Trump has already shown he willing to lose money on this and throw his personal money around. C won't happen - Trump doesn't give a drat about being an establishment Republican and having 'power' in the GOP. B we won't know about until almost a year from now but not a single poll in the last two months has shown Trump as anything other than the front-runner. Edit: To clarify, that doesn't mean I think your analysis is *wrong* - I just think it's going to take months of primaries to shake out who the nominee will be rather than the "front-runner gets challenged but still rolls to victory" model people seem to want to apply.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:30
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So does anyone think GOP will shut down government over Planned Parenthood/20 week abortion ban?
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Sep 11, 2015 18:36
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Was Romney ever polling badly? I seem to recall his polls were fairly solid and steady while every month one of the other idiots rose to prominence until they misspoke or they became the butt of jokes on SNL and people moved to the next hoping to find their true conservative hero. Trump has been consistently gaining momentum and brushing off stuff that would end a lesser campaign while Bush has been sagging with absolutely no enthusiasm anywhere.Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:So does anyone think GOP will shut down government over Planned Parenthood/20 week abortion ban? I think they will, but they would have found another reason to be obstinate if the PP videos didn't exist.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:39
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:So does anyone think GOP will shut down government over Planned Parenthood/20 week abortion ban? Uh, yeah. As it turns out, a number of people do. Government Shutdown 2: Shutdown Harder
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Sep 11, 2015 18:39
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Riosan posted:Uh, yeah. As it turns out, a number of people do. This is like the fifth or sixth one I think.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:40
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Government Shutdown 6: A Good Day to Shutdown
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Sep 11, 2015 18:44
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zoux posted:This is like the fifth or sixth one I think. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_shutdown_in_the_United_States Apparently we've had 18 so far. Edit: phone posting on my lunch break means I don't pay attention. We've had 18 "funding gaps", but not all have resulted in government shutdowns. Coheed and Camembert fucked around with this message at 18:47 on Sep 11, 2015 |
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Sep 11, 2015 18:44
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Zeroisanumber posted:You don't get to be Speaker by being bad at politics. I don't think he's good at big picture politics and I think the entirety of his speakership speaks to that.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:48
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I don't think Sam Rayburn could run this caucus.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:49
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zoux posted:I don't think Sam Rayburn could run this caucus. The real question is, could Thomas Brackett Reed?
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Sep 11, 2015 18:50
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Bob Ojeda posted:The real question is, could Thomas Brackett Reed? Look if we're going to play All-Time Fantasy Congress I'm going to need to run some mock drafts.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:51
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zoux posted:I don't think Sam Rayburn could run this caucus. They're largely of his own doing though. Like, people who say, but its just such a tough job herding all these crazies, seem to forget he openly encouraged and embraced the non-sense that fueled their rise in the first place, then when they came aboard and he had plenty of opportunities to explain to them how power works, he decided that appeasement was a better strategy. In other words, Boehner and rest of the establishment are like kids who play with fire and then are hosed shocked it burns.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:51
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Fried Chicken posted:And what part of this will force Bush to drop out? I just can't wrap my head around the idea that the Republican Party will run George W. Bush's brother as their candidate. Maybe, at a stretch, if he was some sort of unbelievable, whiz-bang, super impressive guy, I could buy it--but he obviously isn't. Obviously it's not going to be Trump either, but my gut tells me they're going to end up having to go with Rubio or something.
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Sep 11, 2015 18:55
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Riosan posted:Uh, yeah. As it turns out, a number of people do. quote:But even that's going to be tough. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle are using the budget process to push their ideological agendas on everything from abortion to military spending to international nuclear deals. And there's a presidential campaign going on, complicating the decisions and actions of the five senators running for the White House. (And in the Senate, sometimes it only takes one.) The media is garbage. Both sides are doing it! For example, these three things Republicans are demanding be changed using the threat of a shutdown. But Democrats won't let them! Both sides are bad!
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Sep 11, 2015 19:05
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Fantasy congress sounds kinda fun. e: and also exceedingly tedious and difficult to make a game of
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Sep 11, 2015 19:07
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Cnut the Great posted:I just can't wrap my head around the idea that the Republican Party will run George W. Bush's brother as their candidate. Maybe, at a stretch, if he was some sort of unbelievable, whiz-bang, super impressive guy, I could buy it--but he obviously isn't. It's a combination of the utter lack of talent in the Republican Party and the rhetorical hole they dug themselves into. Their dog whistling has caught up to them and now they are resigned to picking the most moderate-looking candidate possible to try and win a general. Jeb is boring and inoffensive and kinda sorta looks like he could be a president so that's good enough. I think they should have backed Rubio from the start but that's another story. It's really hilarious when conservatives lament about Trump ruining the "strongest Republican field in our lifetimes" because it's really just a bunch hacks and wannabes that are only there due to the lack of a very strong or obvious candidate. The republicans in their current state seem doomed in general elections until some sort of cataclysmic event like scandal, war, or economic collapse happens. Until then they will continue to lose the presidency until the party has a major shake up and reforms itself.
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Sep 11, 2015 19:20
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Mr Ice Cream Glove posted:So does anyone think GOP will shut down government over Planned Parenthood/20 week abortion ban? Yep. Also, PP just filed suit in Arkansas about the cancellation of Medicaid payments by the legislature in response to those videos. Going by precedent, this is a slam dunk for PP, but these days partisanship can trump rule of law if you get the right judge
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Sep 11, 2015 19:31
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Devor posted:The media is garbage. Both sides are doing it! For example, these three things Republicans are demanding be changed using the threat of a shutdown. But Democrats won't let them! Both sides are bad! Democrats are demanding an end to the sequester this time
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Sep 11, 2015 19:32
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Fried Chicken posted:Democrats are demanding an end to the sequester this time Good. But get this --- that's an actual budget issue. Sequester was the dumbest loving thing.
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Sep 11, 2015 19:34
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ReidRansom posted:Fantasy congress sounds kinda fun. Debate & Discussion: The Problem Attic > USPOL September: Exceedingly tedious and difficult to make a game of
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Sep 11, 2015 19:40
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Anyone else got some fun money in PredictIt?
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Sep 11, 2015 19:49
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Biden and Boehner will be sitting behind Francis as he gives an address to Congress next week. The obvious question: who cries first?
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Sep 11, 2015 19:52
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Joementum posted:Biden and Boehner will be sitting behind Francis as he gives an address to Congress next week. Biden. It's been a rough few months for Joe.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:08
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Fried Chicken posted:Democrats are demanding an end to the sequester this time In the context of threatening a shutdown / refusing a Continuing Resolution? I'm not able to find anything to that effect.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:16
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Fried Chicken posted:Democrats are demanding an end to the sequester this time If you want a compromise "clean CR", this is the way to do it.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:18
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To be fair the sequester literally was put in place as a "this so bad, it will force us to agree on a budget in place of it" mechanism.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:29
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Tender Bender posted:To be fair the sequester literally was put in place as a "this so bad, it will force us to agree on a budget in place of it" mechanism. I remember those innocent years. Thinking people would actually care about governing in government. It was incomprehensible that people would destroy faith in the dollar, wipe out the economy and cripple the nation as a cheap political stunt. Now we've learned the tooth fairy isn't real.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:34
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zoux posted:Who do they think they are performing this theater for exactly? Those fliers and letters you're going to start getting in a few months.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:36
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Those fliers and letters you're going to start getting in a few months. Not me bud, it's a foregone conclusion here.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:43
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Raskolnikov38 posted:Those fliers and letters you're going to start getting in a few months. But what if I lust for fetus death?
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Sep 11, 2015 20:50
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make some fetus floats, two scoops ice cream one fetus from planned parenthood.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:56
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Fried Chicken posted:We are 6 months out from the first primary. Guessing the "how" is a mugs game. I just look at the obstacles to be overcome and I can't see a way this doesn't go to whom the establishment picks Do the Republicans has a legal system in place to make sure Trump isn't on the ticket, like the democrat super delagates? Raskolnikov38 posted:Those fliers and letters you're going to start getting in a few months. gently caress, I'm a mailman, I have to leave look at them all.
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Sep 11, 2015 20:57
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Fried Chicken posted:Democrats are demanding an end to the sequester this time Isn't the administration also threatening to veto any budget that doesn't include closing Guantanamo? Or was that some fever dream I had?
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Sep 11, 2015 21:00
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zoux posted:Not me bud, it's a foregone conclusion here. No I meant the fliers and letters are the audience, these dumb bills are p much only so when they make an ad saying I opposed the Iran deal they have something to point to.
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Sep 11, 2015 21:01
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Mr Jaunts posted:Isn't the administration also threatening to veto any budget that doesn't include closing Guantanamo? Or was that some fever dream I had? Send all fetuses to Gitmo. Two birds with one stone.
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Sep 11, 2015 21:01
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