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I want to visit the alternate universe where Congress backed Obama in 2013 and we went head to head with Russia over Assad.
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Sep 13, 2015 18:47
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Bait and Swatch posted:Haven't they been saying that for awhile though? Other groups have been swearing loyalty and ISIS changes their name to "Governate whatever." I've also seen similar claims from Libya and Afghanistan. A few weeks back, some reporter on NPR was discussing an ISIS operational plan she had gotten her hands on to provoke nuclear war between India and Pakistan. ISIS is getting a lot of converts, and not all of them are heading to Syria. They definitely have had a presence in the Western Desert since at least last year, when they did the Farfara (probably misspelled that) border outpost attack in July 2014 and then kidnapped and killed that American working for Apache Oil around those parts. I think the consensus is that there are three prongs of IS in Egypt- the Sinai branch, the Nile Delta branch and the Western Desert one- all of which are acting somewhat independently of each other.
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Sep 13, 2015 19:41
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Sinteres posted:How'd that work out in Afghanistan? Pretty well, given a lot of dead Russians was the objective and accomplishment.
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Sep 13, 2015 19:49
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So by the looks of it, the thread's deep pessimism implies that we've made jack poo poo for progress against ISIS, right?
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Sep 13, 2015 19:54
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Grouchio posted:So by the looks of it, the thread's deep pessimism implies that we've made jack poo poo for progress against ISIS, right? Well there is poo poo involved; the US has mostly just smeared it around. Is there more poo poo or less poo poo? Anyone's guess.
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Sep 13, 2015 20:01
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 http://www.janes360.com/images/assets/890/46890/141208-isis-syrian-forces-graphic-952a_e1fb2cc5e46770ec70cf43405b25ca0c.pdf
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Sep 13, 2015 21:00
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Grouchio posted:So by the looks of it, the thread's deep pessimism implies that we've made jack poo poo for progress against ISIS, right? So it depends if you consider a bunch of mostly-stalemated fronts as "progress". Given that a year ago ISIL was the "unstoppable force from hell" who was rolling over fronts left and right, kicking them back into a stalemate seems like a measure of progress to me, although Palmyra was a big gain by ISIL/loss for everyone. We'll have to see if/when something new develops, especially given that Russia is jumping into the meat grinder. fade5 fucked around with this message at 21:06 on Sep 13, 2015 |
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Sep 13, 2015 21:04
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fade5 posted:We'll have to see if/when something new develops, especially given that Russia is jumping into the meat grinder.
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Sep 13, 2015 22:26
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Rincewinds posted:Better than it worked out in Ukraine. You're insane if you'd rather live in Afghanistan than Ukraine.
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Sep 13, 2015 23:14
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Vernii posted:Pretty well, given a lot of dead Russians was the objective and accomplishment. Mission accomplished, good thing there weren't any unintended consequences!
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Sep 13, 2015 23:15
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Grouchio posted:So by the looks of it, the thread's deep pessimism implies that we've made jack poo poo for progress against ISIS, right? I wouldn't say that, really. They have been bled of their momentum, which was the most menacing thing about ISIS when they began their initial campaign. Things are basically closer to the status quo before ISIS now but that's reason enough to be pessimistic.
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Sep 13, 2015 23:55
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Sinteres posted:You're insane if you'd rather live in Afghanistan than Ukraine. The afghans used AA to blow up hinds, the russians use them to blow up passenger planes. I consider the first case to be a better use, but you are free to believe that passenger jets are better targets for anti air.
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Sep 14, 2015 00:18
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Grouchio posted:So by the looks of it, the thread's deep pessimism implies that we've made jack poo poo for progress against ISIS, right? Hard to say. They're not making the kind of progress that they had been before and some of their gains have been reversed. Some of their veteran cadres have been devastated by battlefield attrition and by airstrikes. Still, they're hanging in, but for how long before they splinter into smaller groups again, no one can say. So far, I'm pleased with how we're doing. But I'm easy to please because my measure of success is having no western ground troops committed to the fight.
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Sep 14, 2015 00:23
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Rincewinds posted:The afghans used AA to blow up hinds, the russians use them to blow up passenger planes. I consider the first case to be a better use, but you are free to believe that passenger jets are better targets for anti air. What?
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Sep 14, 2015 00:25
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Grouchio posted:So by the looks of it, the thread's deep pessimism implies that we've made jack poo poo for progress against ISIS, right? Pessimism has never been an accurate metric of determining anything here.
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Sep 14, 2015 00:31
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So the plan to retake Mosul is on permanent hold?
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Sep 14, 2015 00:36
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Armyman25 posted:So the plan to retake Mosul is on permanent hold? The Iraqi Security Forces are busy with Ramadi, Fallujah, and Baiji right now (not to mention Anbar) so Mosul would have to come after those cities are taken. That's going to be a while (the ISF really aren't all that great at effectively fighting ISIL), and Mosul will be a hell of a lot harder than those places. The Shia Militias are similarly busy right now, and there's the added sectarian component of Sunnis in Mosul disliking and distrusting any Shia Militas who would try to "liberate" the city. The people living in Mosul may hate ISIL, but the Shia militias are likely seen as even worse to a lot of Mosul's residents. The Iraqi Peshmerga have said they would help liberate the outskirts of Mosul, and might even help with certain inner parts of it, but the problem is that they would only do this as part of a joint operation to liberate Mosul with some other group taking point. The Kurds are not going to lead the charge into Mosul, they'd be the backup; the problem is that there's nobody to take point right now, because see above. The various minority groups and their respective militias are in a similar position as the Kurds: the Yazidis, Ninevah and Assyrian Christians, Turkmen, et al who were kicked out of Mosul would like to return home, but they don't have the numbers, weapons or safety to do so right now, so any assault on Mosul would have to be part of a joint effort, and see above again. Hell, right now a lot of them are stuck in Iraqi Kurdistan because it's the only place where they can live in some sort of peace and that doesn't want to loving murder them, so even if they technically could return to Mosul it might no be safe enough for them to do so. fade5 fucked around with this message at 01:07 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 01:02
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Wonderful news from Egypt! (not really) http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/14/egyptian-security-forces-accidentally-shoot-tourist?CMP=fb_gu Long story short, Egyptian security forces kill a bunch of Mexican tourists while insurgent-hunting.
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Sep 14, 2015 02:04
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Aye loving carumba. 
Grouchio fucked around with this message at 03:05 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 03:01
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Holy poo poo, tourists in the middle east are getting killed by everyone these days.
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Sep 14, 2015 03:09
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Grouchio posted:Aye loving carumba. Finally, a surfacing of Al-Chapo
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Sep 14, 2015 03:16
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This has to be the final blow for the Egyptian tourism industry right?
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Sep 14, 2015 03:22
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Pretty worrying article from Faysal Itani, and Barabandi, the former Syrian diplomat who expanded on the regime releasing jihadist prisoners from Sednaya prison when the Arab Spring kicked off. It's on a seeming shift of Iranian strategy in Syria, focused around the city of Zabadani.quote:Zabadani lies some 17 miles northwest of Damascus, astride a key Hezbollah supply line and near core Hezbollah territory in Lebanon. This makes the city critical for both the militia and Iran. In early July, Hezbollah and regime forces began an offensive to take Zabadani, besieging rebel forces there. Syrian rebels responded by encircling thousands of pro-regime and Hezbollah forces in Fu'a and Kefraya, northern Syria, using this as leverage to force a ceasefire in Zabadani. Sporadic fighting continues and the city's fate remains unclear. What is clear, however, is that Iran's handling of the Zabadani crisis indicates a shift in its Syria strategy, in which it either negotiates on behalf of or ignores Assad and his inner circle, securing its interests directly rather than by proxy. http://www.huffingtonpost.com/faysal-itani/in-zabadani-signs-of-a-ne_b_8097416.html Now this style of ethnic cleansing would likely be a key part of any sort of partitioning deal, so one could argue that this is a step in the right direction. The problem here is that if Iran intends to step into Syria, take what it wants as its own, and kick everyone inside it who they don't like out, there won't be a deal any time soon for 2 reasons. The first is that if Iran is willing to go to this scale of injustice towards Sunni Arabs to maintain its ability to supply Hezbollah, then there's no reason to think they will suddenly turn reasonable and treat Sunni held areas of Syria fairly later on. The second is that people being kicked out of their homes en masse will be angry, which will lead to more sectarian violence. With these two factors in mind, I think what you'd see is a refusal to acknowledge any sort of partitioning deal, and that would be blamed on the violence from groups like ISIS making a viable independent Sunni state impossible. You'd have 3 separate countries within Syria, but only one on the map, and Iran would assert itself over the entirety of it. Essentially, north Syria would be a Gaza or a Kurdistan. ~Iran has the right to defend itself~ That kind of thing. We've seen how Iran carving into Iraq and claiming what it wanted has worked there, so it's not bringing positive images to mind thinking about them attempting the same in Syria. We could be a long, long way from anything resembling peace in the Levant if true, because this is not something that can be fought easily.
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Sep 14, 2015 03:22
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J33uk posted:This has to be the final blow for the Egyptian tourism industry right? I wouldn't go, and I consider rural Mexico and Nigeria prime tourist destinations. I would literally rather go to northern Afghanistan. edit vvv jesus christ i say swears online fucked around with this message at 03:35 on Sep 14, 2015 |
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Sep 14, 2015 03:27
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J33uk posted:This has to be the final blow for the Egyptian tourism industry right? With this incident, it would appear that the Egyptian military has just killed more foreign tourists than jihadists have since the 1997 Luxor massacre.
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Sep 14, 2015 03:32
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From The Guardian live blog. quote:According to the Arabic-language newspaper, Al Masry Al Youm, a spokesman for the Egyptian tourism ministry has claimed the vehicles in which the tourists were travelling were not licensed, did not notify authorities of their presence and did not have the necessary permits to be in the area. Yeah that's precisely the tone you want to hit after wiping out tourists. What a loving mess.
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Sep 14, 2015 04:14
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I see Egypt is taking the Donald Trump plan rather seriously.
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Sep 14, 2015 04:29
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J33uk posted:From The Guardian live blog. Yeah no loving poo poo, god drat. I'd been hoping to be able to travel to Egypt sometime in the next few years, I visited as a child in the 90s and would absolutely love to go back, but not like this. This is insanity.
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Sep 14, 2015 05:19
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How are u posted:Yeah no loving poo poo, god drat. I'd been hoping to be able to travel to Egypt sometime in the next few years, I visited as a child in the 90s and would absolutely love to go back, but not like this. This is insanity. You'd think tourists and their money would be one of the few groups the government would actually want to handle halfway decently. Oh well!
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Sep 14, 2015 05:25
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Glad my mother got to go there while the going was good, just before all the Arab spring stuff breaking out 
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Sep 14, 2015 06:17
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Sinteres posted:Mission accomplished, good thing there weren't any unintended consequences! The withdrawal was what the US (and Pakistan, Iran, the PRC, and most Afghans) wanted. If by "unintended consequence," you mean empowering Hezbi Islami at the expense of Jamiati Islami- unfortunately that too was according to the plan followed by the ISI and the US.
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Sep 14, 2015 06:35
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Xerxes17 posted:Glad my mother got to go there while the going was good, just before all the Arab spring stuff breaking out It's really sad that the Arab spring is referred to this way now. Back in 2011 a lot of us thought the middle East would be a somewhat friendlier place by now. Instead of the even worse hell hole it has become 
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Sep 14, 2015 07:27
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Xerxes17 posted:Glad my mother got to go there while the going was good, just before all the Arab spring stuff breaking out My parents are going to Turkey for a vacation. At least it's safe as usual, right 
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Sep 14, 2015 08:18
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suboptimal posted:With this incident, it would appear that the Egyptian military has just killed more foreign tourists than jihadists have since the 1997 Luxor massacre. And that massacre happened just as I planned to visit Egypt and led to my canceling my plans.
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Sep 14, 2015 12:18
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J33uk posted:This has to be the final blow for the Egyptian tourism industry right?
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Sep 14, 2015 13:14
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mobby_6kl posted:My parents are going to Turkey for a vacation. At least it's safe as usual, right Well, as safe as a country could be when its Eternal God-Emperor is in the midst of kicking off a civil war because he's unhappy he no longer has a majority at the Parliament.
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Sep 14, 2015 13:39
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Sounds like the majority of those killed were tour guides. Two Mexican nationals confirmed.
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Sep 14, 2015 14:13
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Dilkington posted:The withdrawal was what the US (and Pakistan, Iran, the PRC, and most Afghans) wanted. Intended or not, it certainly doesn't seem like a model worth repeating. Russia intervening in the conflict isn't a sufficient threat to US interests to justify handing over anti-air weaponry which could easily be used against people who aren't Russians in the future. Moderate groups in Syria, to the extent that they still exist, have a history of having their weapons taken by more radical groups. We aren't giving anti-air weapons to the local Al Qaeda affiliate for obvious reasons. Even the YPG, who seem like the closest things to heroes existing in Syria today, have ties with a terrorist group currently in conflict with a NATO ally of ours. As unhappy as I am with Turkey's opportunistic war on the PKK right now, I think it would clearly be bad if US weaponry were used to shoot down Turkish aircraft.
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Sep 14, 2015 14:18
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Volkerball posted:Sounds like the majority of those killed were tour guides. Two Mexican nationals confirmed. Eight Mexican tourists confirmed killed, one U.S. national wounded. Apparently it was a loving air strike by an Apache attack helicopter. It's also coming out that the convoy had a police escort. This is turning into a big disaster for the Egyptians. Edit- source: http://www.madamasr.com/news/update-ministry-adviser-says-police-escorted-tourist-convoy
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Sep 14, 2015 14:32
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How is this more of a disaster than usual? he's already getting away with killing tons of people. what's eight Mexicans going to change? The gulf and the US will still back him and prop him up to the very last Egyptian.
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Sep 14, 2015 14:57
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