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WoodrowSkillson posted:Considering Assad and Isis are two evil empires fighting it out with innocents caught in the middle, its probably a net positive if one of them got eliminated, and i'd prefer that one be Isis since assad will not try and conquer iraq. If that was just those two who were fighting, like maybe. Either of those two groups not existing, ignoring any other factors, would certainly be a good thing for the world in general, but as at the moment Assad seems pretty intent on focusing on FSA and the Kurds, I think its pretty likely they're the ones who are going to get hosed over by this first and foremost, then maybe after however long that takes, if Russia still cares at that point, Assad would move on to ISIS.
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Sep 15, 2015 18:25
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Honestly, when the dust clears, it will be JaN, Jaysh, and Ahrar who get to rule the rubble. Neither ISIS nor the regime are sustainable in the long term.
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Sep 15, 2015 18:29
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dr_rat posted:If that was just those two who were fighting, like maybe. Either of those two groups not existing, ignoring any other factors, would certainly be a good thing for the world in general, but as at the moment Assad seems pretty intent on focusing on FSA and the Kurds, I think its pretty likely they're the ones who are going to get hosed over by this first and foremost, then maybe after however long that takes, if Russia still cares at that point, Assad would move on to ISIS. What? Aside from a few clashes Assad and the SAA have largely not given a single solitary gently caress at all about the Kurds and what they do
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Sep 15, 2015 18:32
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dr_rat posted:If that was just those two who were fighting, like maybe. Either of those two groups not existing, ignoring any other factors, would certainly be a good thing for the world in general, but as at the moment Assad seems pretty intent on focusing on FSA and the Kurds, I think its pretty likely they're the ones who are going to get hosed over by this first and foremost, then maybe after however long that takes, if Russia still cares at that point, Assad would move on to ISIS. When has Assad gone after the Kurds short of skirmishes since the entire area is a war zone? I'm pretty sure they have shared a border in northern Syria for the duration of the conflict. Assas is worried about the rebels and ISIS, in very degrees
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Sep 15, 2015 18:40
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Jagchosis posted:What? Aside from a few clashes Assad and the SAA have largely not given a single solitary gently caress at all about the Kurds and what they do If ISIS and the other rebels collapse the Kurds will surely follow? Assad wants to rule all of Syria, as he once did.
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Sep 15, 2015 19:01
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hypnorotic posted:If ISIS and the other rebels collapse the Kurds will surely follow? Assad wants to rule all of Syria, as he once did. Assad was less of a dick to the Kurds then Turkey is, and I'm not certain the Kurds would want to fight Assad too as opposed to the pre-war paradigm of the Syrian govt discriminating towards them. Can someone with more knowledge of the local history weigh in? I know the Syrian govt has never been overly kind to the Kurds, but it was pretty peaceful compared to Turkey.
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Sep 15, 2015 19:07
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WoodrowSkillson posted:Assad was less of a dick to the Kurds then Turkey is, and I'm not certain the Kurds would want to fight Assad too as opposed to the pre-war paradigm of the Syrian govt discriminating towards them. Can someone with more knowledge of the local history weigh in? I know the Syrian govt has never been overly kind to the Kurds, but it was pretty peaceful compared to Turkey. Discrimination is pretty euphemistic for the status Kurds had in Syria. You have to at least acknowledge a people exist to discriminate against them. When the regime first took power, it required Kurds to come to government centers to show ID. Their ID's were confiscated, they became undocumented, and it became essentially illegal to be a Kurd. Wearing Kurdish dress was grounds for detainment, torture, and massive crackdowns, much less attempting to support a Kurdish party. Crackdowns on people celebrating Newroz forced many Kurds to flee to Iraq, and things were getting pretty ugly prior to the start of the Civil War. Rojava will never submit to Assad rule, and Assad will never recognize a Kurdish state. If the YPG was the only concern the regime had within Syria, they'd be barrel bombing sere kaniye just as hard as they do Douma.
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Sep 15, 2015 19:46
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Things are afoot with the Kurds: Tweet by Brett McGurk, who is currently the "Deputy Special Presidential Envoy to the Global Coalition to Counter ISIL" (read: he's basically in charge of the anti-ISIL stuff) https://twitter.com/brett_mcgurk/status/643780266335469569 quote:Important meetings today in #Erbil w/President Masud Barzani & #PYD's @serokepyd on combined efforts against #ISIL.   quote:Discussed ongoing #Peshmerga ops against #ISIL terrorists with @CJTFOIR's LTG Terry & Pres. Barzani today in #Erbil.  https://twitter.com/heminhawrami/status/643818396333686784 quote:Important .President #Barzani met high level American delegation & later met Salih Muslim. Coordination on Syria.  Salih Muslim is of course the co-chairman of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) in Rojava in Northern Syria. It appears that these talks were rather fruitful: https://twitter.com/heminhawrami/status/643847301228855298 quote:#Rojava Peshmarga who hav been trained by KRG will return to Rojava. Jointly w/ @pyd_rojava fight ISIS, protect Kurdish areas. 
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Sep 15, 2015 20:26
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There's been ongoing gunfire in Riyadh for like 4 hours and no one seems to know what's going on.
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Sep 15, 2015 20:54
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fade5 posted:Joshua Landis did a cool article following the history of Liwa Thuwwar Raqqa: Honestly, is Turkey really a net positive for NATO anymore?
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Sep 15, 2015 21:03
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Volkerball posted:There's been ongoing gunfire in Riyadh for like 4 hours and no one seems to know what's going on. Fingers crossed that Saudi evil is coming home to roost.
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Sep 15, 2015 21:05
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Looking at some of the videos on Twittee there's definitely someone dumping with HMGs.
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Sep 15, 2015 21:07
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How are u posted:Fingers crossed that Saudi evil is coming home to roost. If that's happening it's probably mostly going to be innocent people dying, and not say, House of Saud members
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Sep 15, 2015 21:11
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Golbez posted:Honestly, is Turkey really a net positive for NATO anymore? If you think NATO's primary mission of minimizing Russian influence is still important, they definitely are since the Turkish Straits are incredibly important strategically. If you don't think keeping Russia down should be priority one (and this needn't imply Russophilia, simply a belief that Russia isn't capable of projecting power far beyond its borders anymore) then the answer is closer to being no, but pushing Turkey out and turning them into yet another (particularly powerful) dysfunctional Middle Eastern state instead of a borderline European country would be even worse.
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Sep 15, 2015 21:27
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As lovely as the situation with Turkey is now developing to be, I think it's clearly much better to work with them then cut Erdogan loose and have them go off the rails completely.
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Sep 15, 2015 21:37
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Volkerball posted:There's been ongoing gunfire in Riyadh for like 4 hours and no one seems to know what's going on. I can't find any news reports about this who's reporting?
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Sep 15, 2015 21:40
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mobby_6kl posted:As lovely as the situation with Turkey is now developing to be, I think it's clearly much better to work with them then cut Erdogan loose and have them go off the rails completely. Erdogan won't be around indefinitely either.
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Sep 15, 2015 22:01
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Golbez posted:Honestly, is Turkey really a net positive for NATO anymore? Purely by the virtue of where they're positioned in the world, they're absolutely vital.
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Sep 15, 2015 22:03
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Al-Saqr posted:I can't find any news reports about this who's reporting? Right now it's mainly Twitter based sources. There seem to be plenty of videos floating around of something going on. It's either an isolated thing that Twitter has blown up into a poo poo show or the major organisations are being slow
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Sep 15, 2015 22:04
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Sinteres posted:If you think NATO's primary mission of minimizing Russian influence is still important, they definitely are since the Turkish Straits are incredibly important strategically. If you don't think keeping Russia down should be priority one (and this needn't imply Russophilia, simply a belief that Russia isn't capable of projecting power far beyond its borders anymore) then the answer is closer to being no, but pushing Turkey out and turning them into yet another (particularly powerful) dysfunctional Middle Eastern state instead of a borderline European country would be even worse. They've never been a 'borderline European country' and them no longer being part of NATO wouldn't cause them to immediately implode into a Syria-style hellscape. It might start a three/four-way arms race between them, Iran, SA, and Israel though, whereas now they're content to just sit back, ethnically cleanse the few minorities they have left, and let the US take care of their foreign policy
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Sep 15, 2015 22:09
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Al-Saqr posted:I can't find any news reports about this who's reporting? Rami al Lolah seems to have the most details, but a few others have talked about it. Supposedly some of the aftermath, but several roads are still closed and it's still a very quiet story. 
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Sep 15, 2015 22:22
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J33uk posted:Right now it's mainly Twitter based sources. There seem to be plenty of videos floating around of something going on. It's either an isolated thing that Twitter has blown up into a poo poo show or the major organisations are being slow I suppose links are out of the question
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Sep 15, 2015 22:25
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Banano posted:I suppose links are out of the question This chain of tweets https://twitter.com/RamiAlLolah/status/643826529613520896 Few videos here. https://twitter.com/search?f=videos&vertical=default&q=riyadh&src=typd
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Sep 15, 2015 22:38
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Well, Saudi Arabia is engaging in an aggressive campaign in Yemen that has produced a lot of civilian casualties. Retaliation for that seems like the most likely cause of whatever attack this is. It is strange that no major news websites have taken it up yet, though.
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Sep 15, 2015 22:41
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Sounds like a police raid on a home.
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Sep 15, 2015 22:44
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Banano posted:I suppose links are out of the question Sorry about that, was phone posting while out and about. Thanks to other folks for picking up the slack. Sounds like one hell of a home raid
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Sep 15, 2015 23:05
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Small crosspost While it's not directly related to the Middle East, have this:   
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Sep 16, 2015 00:06
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icantfindaname posted:They've never been a 'borderline European country' and them no longer being part of NATO wouldn't cause them to immediately implode into a Syria-style hellscape. It might start a three/four-way arms race between them, Iran, SA, and Israel though, whereas now they're content to just sit back, ethnically cleanse the few minorities they have left, and let the US take care of their foreign policy Part of Turkey is literally in Europe, and they're the only "non-European" country to ever negotiate to join the EU, even if it never ends up happening. Even without the EU, NATO membership definitely integrates them in some way with Europe. I think you're kind of splitting hairs about the second part too, since a deeper involvement in the conflicts in the region would be a big part of what would make them a dysfunctional Middle Eastern state, combined with the already increasingly paranoid and autocratic leader they have who'd almost certainly become even more extreme if the West tore up their alliance with his country. This will never happen though; it would be far more likely for NATO to push the military of Turkey to overthrow Erdogan than it would be for them to kick Turkey out.
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Sep 16, 2015 01:09
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How are u posted:If Russia wants to put boots on the ground in Syria then they are welcome to it. God help anybody that sends Troops to the ME. And hey at least this time they don't have to pretend to be disaffected separatists!
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Sep 16, 2015 02:52
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So the twitter feed of Ali Abdullah Saleh says that the Saudi Republican Guard fired on the convoy of the Saudi secretary of defense? Um... I wouldn't take his word for it... https://mobile.twitter.com/AliAbdulahSaleh/status/643844247045672962
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Sep 16, 2015 02:59
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Charliegrs posted:So the twitter feed of Ali Abdullah Saleh says that the Saudi Republican Guard fired on the convoy of the Saudi secretary of defense? Um... I wouldn't take his word for it... He's talking about the Yemeni Republican Guard, not the Saudi National Guard. It sounds totally bogus either ways. Also that twitter account looks fake as all hell. There's no way it would be in all English like this. Lots of babbling and nowhere near the amount of followers an actual account would have. Al-Saqr fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Sep 16, 2015 |
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Sep 16, 2015 04:06
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Cocoa Ninja posted:Another depressing NY Times article — this one details daily life in the Damascus suburb of Douma. That would be pretty hilarious if those were all (before the quake/fire) homeless people.
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Sep 16, 2015 04:41
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How are u posted:If Russia wants to put boots on the ground in Syria then they are welcome to it. God help anybody that sends Troops to the ME. We're sorry to inform you that your son who has been gone for 10 months was killed in
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Sep 16, 2015 05:15
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sparatuvs posted:We're sorry to inform you that your son who has been gone for 10 months was killed in And the funny thing is that, if I understand correctly, if Russia isn't in a declared state of war then then any soldiers that die have to remain classified. Meaning if the families talk about it they can end up in jail. This was a pretty recent thing that Putin signed into law after some uppity families were talking to the media about their sons dying in the war that Russia isn't having with Ukraine. http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/05/29/world/europe/putin-russian-soldiers-ukraine.html?referrer=
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Sep 16, 2015 08:00
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Peel posted:Erdogan won't be around indefinitely either. He could still become Turkey's dear leader, you know.
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Sep 16, 2015 15:51
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After some thought (and those horrific numbers regarding the numbers killed in Syria due to aerial bombardment), I think the only morally justifiable response, if you supported the NATO intervention in Kosovo, and the NATO intervention in Libya, is a NATO led bombardment of Syria's air force to the aim of creating a no fly zone in the country. I'm curious to know whether there was much support for this in 2012 in Europe, as the intervention in Libya was pushed forward by French academics and politicians, and why it didn't occur in Syria's case. It only led to the present refugee crisis, which was completely forseeable.
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Sep 16, 2015 17:00
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Shageletic posted:After some thought (and those horrific numbers regarding the numbers killed in Syria due to aerial bombardment), I think the only morally justifiable response, if you supported the NATO intervention in Kosovo, and the NATO intervention in Libya, is a NATO led bombardment of Syria's air force to the aim of creating a no fly zone in the country. Yes, what could possibly go wrong?
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Sep 16, 2015 17:10
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... that hasn't already? I guess right now, (one) issue is that NATO would probably be attacking Russians by doing so, which would be a bit of a problem.
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Sep 16, 2015 17:18
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Mission creep turns to air strikes against SAA hard targets, eroding their ability to fight and leading to Allawite genocide? 
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Sep 16, 2015 17:20
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Shageletic posted:After some thought (and those horrific numbers regarding the numbers killed in Syria due to aerial bombardment), I think the only morally justifiable response, if you supported the NATO intervention in Kosovo, and the NATO intervention in Libya, is a NATO led bombardment of Syria's air force to the aim of creating a no fly zone in the country. I think any real interest in this died after Libya descended into a Mad Max hellscape despite the sucesful NATO 'no fly zone' (close air support).
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Sep 16, 2015 17:26
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