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Well, that was pretty fun. Had my first 'big' win on this site with the NO on a shutdown. I was on the bus checking my phone and saw that my balance was way higher than expected. Managed to dump off my shares in the low-mid 90's. Good timing, too, because last I saw it's dipped into the 80's again.
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Sep 25, 2015 16:59
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So yeah it looks like I timed that market almost perfectly. Nice. DNR are you alright 
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Sep 25, 2015 17:37
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Prime Sinister posted:Well, that was pretty fun. Had my first 'big' win on this site with the NO on a shutdown. I was on the bus checking my phone and saw that my balance was way higher than expected. Managed to dump off my shares in the low-mid 90's. Good timing, too, because last I saw it's dipped into the 80's again. It's up to like 94 now.
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Sep 25, 2015 17:39
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Yeah whoops, I had my sells marked at 75 because I figured they'd get to that on Monday and I wanted to unload up 20/share juuuust incase the house went nuts. Missed out on ˜30/share. Making money on this site means a lot of jumping on trends and re-adjusting your sell prices. I'm also at a disadvantage on the west coast if news like this breaks at 9.
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Sep 25, 2015 17:55
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Woke up late, checked politico, dumped my NO shutdown shares at .91. I'm super-over-exposed on Biden NO with about 60% of my portfolio in it and it's slowly sinking
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Sep 25, 2015 18:38
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Aliquid posted:I'm super-over-exposed on Biden NO with about 60% of my portfolio in it and it's slowly sinking I've diversified my portfolio among Biden not running, Biden not winning Iowa, and Biden not winning the D nomination 
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Sep 25, 2015 18:47
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A new challenger approaches! https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1241/Will-Kevin-McCarthy-be-the-next-Speaker-of-the-House-of-Representatives He's a pretty good bet, honestly. I'd love to see the Gohmert market though.
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Sep 25, 2015 18:47
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pathetic little tramp posted:A new challenger approaches! Why is he the only one on PredictIt? Shouldn't there be other contender markets? edit: And who the hell is driving WALKER.RNOM16 up?? Did some poor bastard not get the memo? Necc0 has issued a correction as of 19:32 on Sep 25, 2015 |
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Sep 25, 2015 19:10
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Took my NO shutdown proceeds and bought into McCarthy YES split between .65 and .66, seems like a good bet to me. edit whoa that shot up fast, now there are only 50 shares available between .69 and .73. I'm out of money, y'all get 'em while they're hot
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Sep 25, 2015 19:47
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:45 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 25, 2015 20:03
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One day I'm going to be the one holding 10 cent stocks by the bundle when the market flips. One day. Come on Trump, trump them polls by next week.
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Sep 25, 2015 20:09
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PredictIt ProTip, when there are multiple options and one is at 99 YES, there's always a little delay before people realise the other markets should resolve as NO, so you can sometimes catch a few 90s if you missed the YES upsurge.
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Sep 25, 2015 20:10
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Oh cool I was asleep when the bottom dropped out of the shutdown market. RIP 80 bucks 
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Sep 25, 2015 20:11
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Yeah I am back at even now  The Obama approval also had a crazy huge swing as RCP decided to drop off two polls at once.
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Sep 25, 2015 21:37
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Is it possible that even if Boehner tries work with the Democrats to avoid a shutdown, the rest of his party can stop that from happening? Like if Boehner offers a reasonable spending bill, they can fillibuster it, right?
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Sep 25, 2015 21:57
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Devils Affricate posted:Is it possible that even if Boehner tries work with the Democrats to avoid a shutdown, the rest of his party can stop that from happening? Like if Boehner offers a reasonable spending bill, they can fillibuster it, right? The House can't filibuster poo poo. If Boehner puts forward something Pelosi agrees to he only needs a small handful of Republicans to also join in in order to pass something. Now if all the Republicans hang together, then it doesn't matter what Boehner does, he can't pass anything. This is exceedingly unlikely and with him resigning at the end of next month there is a vanishingly small chance the government shuts down. Though I did enjoy the crackpot theory that the Pope's visit has radicalized Boehner, and now he's using his last days in office to defund Planed Parenthood. It was a good laugh.
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Sep 25, 2015 22:07
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So who is going to be the next majority leader?
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Sep 25, 2015 22:16
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Stereotype posted:So who is going to be the next majority leader? I really wish they had a huge list of every Republican Rep to chose from. Wanna be able to bet on Gohmert so much. Also I'm kind of hoping they chose someone who isn't even a member of the House just to totally gently caress with everyone. Speaker White Hot Ball Of Rage.
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Sep 25, 2015 22:24
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lol I just made 10 dollars flipping stocks on that brand new market (it's going to be either Scalise or Rodgers probably, they're in line, it just matters if they want a woman or not at the #2 spot)
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Sep 25, 2015 22:26
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I think there is money to be made betting that Bush will be over 10%. The current polling is 9.8% which being a week away, no recent polls, Trump falling, the oldest poll being 9% and his strong debate performance means it should be at least even money, but YES is currently trading in the low 30's.
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Sep 25, 2015 22:29
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The "Who will be the next speaker" market is open. Your choices are: Scalise, Rodgers Jim Jordan Pete Sessions Tom Price Patrick McHenry Pete Roskam
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Sep 25, 2015 23:25
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pathetic little tramp posted:The "Who will be the next speaker" market is open. Your choices are: Who's least likely, Roskam?
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Sep 26, 2015 02:05
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pathetic little tramp posted:The "Who will be the next speaker" market is open. Your choices are: There should be a Pelosi option.
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Sep 26, 2015 02:23
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A Time To Chill posted:Oh cool I was asleep when the bottom dropped out of the shutdown market. RIP 80 bucks Yep, you can make $10 dozens of times but when you lose a big bet it really brings things back down to earth. I still made money on that yes bet, though
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Sep 26, 2015 07:03
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Vox Nihili posted:Yep, you can make $10 dozens of times but when you lose a big bet it really brings things back down to earth. I still made money on that yes bet, though Just out of curiosity, were you caught with your pants down while trading on the market swings or did you think that there was actually going to be a shutdown?
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Sep 26, 2015 07:42
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I would've been heavy on Shutdown YES right up until the Boehner resignation. I thought there would at least be a 1-2 day shutdown until something got hammered out.
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Sep 26, 2015 08:19
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Wanamingo posted:Just out of curiosity, were you caught with your pants down while trading on the market swings or did you think that there was actually going to be a shutdown? I was thinking no as the probable outcome all along but bought into yes a few times when no peaked early on. Never held long enough to get caught, but could easily have eaten it at the end (thought there would be more of a yes spike and got off even on my last buy).
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Sep 26, 2015 08:23
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edit nm bad post
i say swears online has issued a correction as of 00:26 on Sep 28, 2015 |
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Sep 26, 2015 14:02
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RCP never updated the congressional job approval poll so it ended up going off what it was before. someone was right, polls are basically betting on website maintenance.
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Sep 26, 2015 14:44
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Betting on polls seems to be dicey, but I'm debating whether to buy NO for Bush cracking 10%. It seems like a coinflip that a new poll comes out by 9/30, and then another coin flip that the poll puts him over 10%. Loving the Diamond Joe running for Prez by 12/31 No's and Trump running 3rd party by 12/31 No's though. Almost maxed out on both.
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Sep 26, 2015 18:37
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Looks like no on both the direction of the country and congressional approvals are good buys this week. Both have an old poll propping the number up, and after RCP got rid of the old polls from the presidential primaries the other day, I'd say it's likely they'll get rid of these too.
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Sep 26, 2015 21:29
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Wanamingo posted:Looks like no on both the direction of the country and congressional approvals are good buys this week. Both have an old poll propping the number up, and after RCP got rid of the old polls from the presidential primaries the other day, I'd say it's likely they'll get rid of these too. I've already been fooled twice on congressional approval, so shame on me.
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Sep 26, 2015 21:30
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Betting on polls is stupid. The "congressional approval" one didn't update for the entire run of the last market.
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Sep 26, 2015 22:34
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The only polls that probably won't gently caress you over are the monthly polls and the weekly Obama one where you can bet across multiple tranches. Still, it's always best to be out of the market at least 1 day before they end. You're not just betting on what the polls are but which polls RCP decides to use.
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Sep 26, 2015 22:54
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Gyges posted:The only polls that probably won't gently caress you over are the monthly polls and the weekly Obama one where you can bet across multiple tranches. Still, it's always best to be out of the market at least 1 day before they end. You're not just betting on what the polls are but which polls RCP decides to use. They'll all gently caress you over, really. Much safer to avoid them entirely. It's hard to, though, because there are few other short-term options.
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Sep 28, 2015 05:43
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Two weeks left for Biden to announce
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Sep 28, 2015 15:24
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Vox Nihili posted:They'll all gently caress you over, really. Much safer to avoid them entirely. It's hard to, though, because there are few other short-term options. Yeah, making money with any kind of swiftness is all luck really. The only strategy on a non-poll market is to find a NO that's way undervalued, grab onto it and put in your sell orders a little above it, hoping the eventual spike will happen sooner rather than later. edit: drat, just made money on McMorris-Rodgers NO, what caused that spike, did she say something? pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 20:06 on Sep 28, 2015 |
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Sep 28, 2015 17:50
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah, making money with any kind of swiftness is all luck really. The only strategy on a non-poll market is to find a NO that's way undervalued, grab onto it and put in your sell orders a little above it, hoping the eventual spike will happen sooner rather than later. Paul Ryan and and Jeb Hensarling both endorsed Tom Price.
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Sep 28, 2015 20:17
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:45 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 28, 2015 22:43
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:45 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 28, 2015 22:58
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