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I think he would want to be in the debate on the 13th, so earlier than that really. Failing that (and maybe that's honestly a good move, let the 2 big dogs show their weaknesses), he would want to file by November 6 to be on the ballot in every state.
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Sep 30, 2015 22:45
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 30, 2015 22:54
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I look forward to Biden finding a way to both run and not run at the same time, thus ruining us all.
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Sep 30, 2015 23:05
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When was the last time an actually serious candidate decided to declare this late in the game?
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Sep 30, 2015 23:06
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Sep 30, 2015 23:36
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Gyges posted:How much of a window is even left for Biden to declare at this point? As far as PredictIt is concerned? 3 months As far as still being able to be considered serious? 2 weeks TOPS. Ideally right now so he has a few news cycles to work with in order to frame issues for the debate. As far as him actually having a plan to run for president and win? Months ago
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Oct 1, 2015 00:05
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:I remember Fred Thomson was pretty late. I looked it up: September 6. Fred Thomson was not a serious candidate. He was only in it to help his buddy McCain keep the Huckster at bay. Edit: Official announcement dates are kind of non-germane though. McCain, Clark, and Edwards were all officially unofficially running already. Biden hasn't actually done anything yet other than officially commit to thinking about it. Even Clinton's October announcement in '91 doesn't really count since he'd been setting it up since somewhere around '89. Gyges has issued a correction as of 00:31 on Oct 1, 2015 |
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Oct 1, 2015 00:24
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At least BidenRun showed some movement today. My portolio has almost reached its post-Greek Referendum high.
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Oct 1, 2015 01:11
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http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/255585-report-biden-to-skip-first-dem-debate IT'S A SIGN HE'S BUYING MORE TIME UNTIL HE JUMPS IN
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Oct 1, 2015 14:28
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Necc0 posted:http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/255585-report-biden-to-skip-first-dem-debate This is highly disappointing. You're supposed to first tell everyone that you'll be at the debate, then later send out a second notice that you meant you'd be in the audience because you love debates. Come on, Joe. I do hope the Biden Market crashes back down on the NO. I forgot I had a sell offer in on half my shares, so I'm down to only 500 NO.
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Oct 1, 2015 15:18
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Rasmussen called me last night... I answered questions for 8 minutes before just hanging up. I wonder if they still use results from incomplete surveys
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Oct 1, 2015 15:26
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When you sell your shares, does it just sell the oldest shares first or use some other criteria?
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Oct 1, 2015 15:52
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They use FIFO for all transactions so your oldest will be sold first.
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Oct 1, 2015 15:56
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Well I just went up 20% overnight. Dunno if I should hold onto my McCarthy YES and Biden NO, they're about 80% of my portfolio right now and may be inflated. As I spoke, someone spiked Biden NO from .54 to .58 for no reason and I got out. i say swears online has issued a correction as of 18:22 on Oct 1, 2015 |
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Oct 1, 2015 18:18
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Good call, that's probably today's ceiling on Biden. If you don't mind waiting until the end of the year, though, he's not running.
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Oct 1, 2015 18:33
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I still think that too; if I can buy in at YES .42-ish I'll ride that coaster. It looks like the numbers are pretty 'soft', they have very few bets separating each cent and could fluctuate more.
i say swears online has issued a correction as of 18:47 on Oct 1, 2015 |
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Oct 1, 2015 18:43
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I would imagine that BIDENRUN No's will rise significantly in a few weeks after he misses the first debate.
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Oct 1, 2015 18:44
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tinstaach posted:I would imagine that BIDENRUN No's will rise significantly in a few weeks after he misses the first debate. Yeah there's still tons and tons of room for Nos to go up. Really depends on your timeline
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Oct 1, 2015 19:25
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Looking at the trend and trying to read the tea leaves of the comments, it looks like no is probably going to slowly sink back to around where it was at the beginning of the day. Some Yes people probably tried to liquidate shares as soon as it came out Biden wasn't going to be in the debate. Turns out they didn't need to panic since people are just pushing the price back up to where it was. The equilibrium of the Biden market is in the range of 60-70 Yes, 30-40 No. Which is real nice if you feel some level of certainty that Biden isn't jumping in. I think I've actually made more off the Biden market than any other on the site. Buy in at 30 something, sell around 60, repeat. Each day makes his jumping in less likely but the market seems determined to deny this.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:38
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I managed to get out of Biden NO around its peak at 0.59. Might buy back in if it does get back into the 0.30s.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:45
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In other news, I bought into GOP NO on winning the KY governor's race. It's happening next month and Bevin is shooting himself in the foot at every opportunity so I think it's a lock.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:48
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Aliquid posted:In other news, I bought into GOP NO on winning the KY governor's race. It's happening next month and Bevin is shooting himself in the foot at every opportunity so I think it's a lock. Odd year Governor elections are weird and states not on the even number bandwagon should feel bad about themselves.
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Oct 1, 2015 19:52
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Gyges posted:Odd year Governor elections are weird and states not on the even number bandwagon should feel bad about themselves. Agreed, Virginia in particular sucks at that.
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Oct 1, 2015 20:24
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Gyges posted:Looking at the trend and trying to read the tea leaves of the comments, it looks like no is probably going to slowly sink back to around where it was at the beginning of the day. Some Yes people probably tried to liquidate shares as soon as it came out Biden wasn't going to be in the debate. Turns out they didn't need to panic since people are just pushing the price back up to where it was. God I hope you're right. I missed out on the 40c range waiting on the site to pay out on my last bet and I really don't want to have to buy at 55c or whatever.
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Oct 2, 2015 02:18
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Biden is volatile enough to make some money, because he isn't going to run so just always buy NO for low and sell it higher. I want to bet on the Majority Leader market though, because I have no idea who is going to win and neither does anyone else.
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Oct 2, 2015 03:35
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Biden NO didn't drop at all today, just a quick dip this afternoon around 50/50.
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Oct 2, 2015 05:38
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I don't remember why I'm so sure Biden won't run, but I'm sticking to it.
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Oct 2, 2015 09:20
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Vox Nihili posted:God I hope you're right. I missed out on the 40c range waiting on the site to pay out on my last bet and I really don't want to have to buy at 55c or whatever. We are getting later in the year so it might not pop all the way back, that's a possibility. However look at the market over the last 90 days:  That's crazy for a market where the only notable events are some guy yelling about Biden running while on a train and Biden not showing up for a debate.
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Oct 2, 2015 15:56
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I'm not gonna put any more money in that I already have but with him bowing out I'm pretty sure he's a solid 'No' barring Hillary having a heart attack or something
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Oct 2, 2015 16:33
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I'm pretty sure YES Biden just jumped up 5 cents because someone posted this video lol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ODioax-0J8
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Oct 2, 2015 21:18
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Oh God I just had a terrible idea. Make 10 YouTube accounts have them all very "Deepthroat in a parking garage-y" each one predicting a different outcome, the ones whose predictions fail you delete their accounts until you have one shadow man who has like 10 straight predictions and then you can manipulate the markets at will.
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Oct 2, 2015 21:55
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Man, the Biden comments are kind of fun to read. Just insane conspiracy theory level thinking from both sides. Biden Will/Won't run and no matter what fact/info is put out it supports their side. It is very much like in 2008 when no matter what happened it was GOOD FOR HILLARY CLINTON. For instance unions rethinking their early endorsements of Clinton has nothing to do with that socialist guy doing well in the polls right now, it's clearly all about Biden.
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Oct 3, 2015 02:41
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Stereotype posted:I'm pretty sure YES Biden just jumped up 5 cents because someone posted this video lol This is the best of all possible worlds
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Oct 3, 2015 03:55
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I'm starting to feel Rubio YES is overvalued
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Oct 3, 2015 17:53
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Got a big pile of Biden No at 43, probably sticking with it now.
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Oct 4, 2015 01:39
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I love how every article moving the market is nothing but anonymous sources. Hopefully this swing will burn through another 3.5k or so shares to my next buy point. This is late as gently caress to jump into the race. He could still do it, but drat Yes guys are bullish for some questionable reasons.
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Oct 4, 2015 02:05
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Vox Nihili posted:Got a big pile of Biden No at 43, probably sticking with it now. I was playing with the volatility on Friday and have a bunch of 51c NOs  Now they look dumb.
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Oct 4, 2015 10:33
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Yeah I wonder if they'll resolve the market when he says thanks but no or if they're going to hold onto it until the end of the year like they planned. And gently caress you guys who got cheap shares, I paid 54 for mine
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Oct 4, 2015 15:51
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If the other markets are anything to go by they'll leave it open until Jan 1st. Walker's markets are all still open and he's dead in the water.
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Oct 4, 2015 16:01
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| # ? May 13, 2024 22:13 |
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pathetic little tramp posted:Yeah I wonder if they'll resolve the market when he says thanks but no or if they're going to hold onto it until the end of the year like they planned. And gently caress you guys who got cheap shares, I paid 54 for mine Well you can buy under 50 now if you want. We're about 900 shares away from dipping below 40. Necc0 posted:If the other markets are anything to go by they'll leave it open until Jan 1st. Walker's markets are all still open and he's dead in the water. Only the ones where he's part of the field. Individual markets and the previous who will drop out first are gone. If Biden officially says he's not in, the market will likely resolve.
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Oct 4, 2015 16:11
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