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Franco Potente posted:Maggie Hassan is running for Senate in NH. Bad news for Ayotte. Oh god my loins, yes. Also if Rubio doesn't win he nomination he's officially out of the Senate and is out of politics at least until the next Senate election in Florida or presidential election, right?
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Oct 6, 2015 01:53
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DutchDupe posted:Oh god my loins, yes. I doubt that skeletor seeks a third term. edit: And its possible that a someone other than him wins the R nomination and the White House, then appoints him to the cabinet or even as VP.
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Oct 6, 2015 01:57
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Cliff Racer posted:I doubt that skeletor seeks a third term. Skeletor can not seek a third term per the Florida Constitution. If Rubio does not win the Presidency and is not appointed to something, he is out of politics for about a year or so before the race to rule the sandbar starts up.
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Oct 6, 2015 03:22
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DutchDupe posted:Oh god my loins, yes. He's going to be the next governor of Florida and run again in another cycle or two.
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Oct 6, 2015 08:26
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His governorship of Florida will probably conveniently put paid to any aspirations towards higher office.
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Oct 7, 2015 05:54
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Peztopiary posted:His governorship of Florida will probably conveniently put paid to any aspirations towards higher office. He won't have a Terrie Schiavo with whom to burnish his credibility on defending conservatives though.
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Oct 7, 2015 05:58
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Former State Rep. Deobrah Ross enters the NC Senate race for the Dems. Doesn't seem like she's a major pick-up, but I'm not really familiar with the NC political scene.
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Oct 14, 2015 16:00
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She's fairly well-known around Raleigh, but not statewide. Then again neither is Burr. It'll depend on how much support she gets from the DSCC (none) and any coattail effect from the governor's race. Interestingly, there's been a bunch of veteran republicans retiring lately, which doesn't bode well for maintaining the state GOP donor/support network, which is what caused the dems' wipeout in 2010. Plus they elected a talk radio buffoon as their state chair, so that might add more chaos as well.
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Oct 14, 2015 16:11
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comes along bort posted:She's fairly well-known around Raleigh, but not statewide. Then again neither is Burr. It'll depend on how much support she gets from the DSCC (none) and any coattail effect from the governor's race. The Dems don't seem to have anything in place to capitalize on any potential failures in the Republican donor network, though. I've been seeing sponsored Twitter content trying to recruit people to run in unopposed R districts, which I guess is a start but not exactly confidence-inspiring.
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Oct 14, 2015 18:07
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Ohio update: Strickland is way, way behind Portman in Ohio both in fundraising and especially cash on hand
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Oct 14, 2015 18:26
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Mons Hubris posted:The Dems don't seem to have anything in place to capitalize on any potential failures in the Republican donor network, though. I've been seeing sponsored Twitter content trying to recruit people to run in unopposed R districts, which I guess is a start but not exactly confidence-inspiring. Well yeah, they're still up poo poo's creek at the moment. That's why I mentioned Cooper's coattails, because if she wins that's how it'll happen. Statewide elections are pretty much the one place dems are still competitive. And let's face it, Cooper's gonna be sucking up all the money and infrastructure.
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Oct 14, 2015 21:35
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PPP released poll results for the PA senate race. John Fetterman 14% Katie McGinty 22% Joe Sestak 29% Undecided 35% Nothing conclusive yet by any means.
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Oct 17, 2015 17:32
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Based on that link, half of all would-be primary voters have heard literally nothing about the walk across PA. On the other hand I suspect that at least half of the primary voters at this point haven't heard of Fetterman in general and have probably forgotten who McGuinty even is too.
Cliff Racer has issued a correction as of 17:56 on Oct 17, 2015 |
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Oct 17, 2015 17:45
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GalacticAcid posted:PPP released poll results for the PA senate race. If they hand Sestak the nomination again they deserve to loving lose again.
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Oct 17, 2015 17:55
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Mons Hubris posted:The Dems don't seem to have anything in place to capitalize on any potential failures in the Republican donor network, though. I've been seeing sponsored Twitter content trying to recruit people to run in unopposed R districts, which I guess is a start but not exactly confidence-inspiring. Well, but what current lower office holder or other non-weirdo is going to throw away a year of their life running to lose in one of the 10 R+10 seats? Better that they just grab the Governor's Mansion. The biggest loss right now is Janet Cowell, but I wager she runs in 2020 for Tillis's seat or Price's when he retires.
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Oct 17, 2015 18:44
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FAUXTON posted:If they hand Sestak the nomination again they deserve to loving lose again. The top brass of the PA dems including the current and former governor are all backing McGinty. They really want her (actually they REALLY wanted Josh Shapiro) over Sestak and everyone else seems to be falling in line. At this rate by April the only one who wil be endorsing Sestak is Pat Toomey.
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Oct 17, 2015 19:46
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The Nastier Nate posted:The top brass of the PA dems including the current and former governor are all backing McGinty. They really want her (actually they REALLY wanted Josh Shapiro) over Sestak and everyone else seems to be falling in line. At this rate by April the only one who wil be endorsing Sestak is Pat Toomey. Counterpoint (though really, this is starting to be a real broken record debate): McGuinty's gubernatorial primary campaign was much worse than any of Sestak's and she has no actual electoral accomplishments. Nor have behind the scenes power players really done all that well in moving into the open to take on big positions like this.
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Oct 17, 2015 19:51
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Cliff Racer posted:Counterpoint (though really, this is starting to be a real broken record debate): McGuinty's gubernatorial primary campaign was much worse than any of Sestak's and she has no actual electoral accomplishments. Nor have behind the scenes power players really done all that well in moving into the open to take on big positions like this. McGinty only ran to help Wolf. Regardless, still a better candidate than Sestak. Anyone that we can just plaster "Generic D" over the name of would be great.
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Oct 17, 2015 19:57
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McGuinty was interested in, and then in, the race long before anyone had even heard of Tom Wolf.
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Oct 17, 2015 20:07
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I just love Fetterman's style, but I don't know if a blue-collar populist progressive can beat an establishment that's closed ranks around McGinty. E: Watching from northeast Ohio its just nice to see an unapologetically rust-belt liberal making waves. Yadoppsi has issued a correction as of 00:19 on Oct 18, 2015 |
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Oct 18, 2015 00:16
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Yadoppsi posted:I just love Fetterman's style, but I don't know if a blue-collar populist progressive can beat an establishment that's closed ranks around McGinty. The Poll we are talking about posted:Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Fetterman?
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Oct 18, 2015 02:25
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Just means he has nowhere to go but up 
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Oct 18, 2015 16:58
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PoliticsPA with a full report on Fetterman's FEC report. Almost 20% of his money came from family members. Here's an equivalent report for McGinty. They haven't published one on Sestak for Q3 yet.
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Oct 22, 2015 01:56
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Apparently some republicans in NH are talking about a primary challenge to Ayotte. Bill O'Brien our Speaker of the House in 2010 and national laughingstock has reportedly been meeting with the crazies in the NH house to discuss a challenge. This would just be the best and would almost make having had to put up with his three ring circus from 2010 to 2012 worth the pain and misery.
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Nov 2, 2015 21:26
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What kind of insane metric do you use to declare Ayotte not a true conservative?
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Nov 2, 2015 22:43
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Gyges posted:What kind of insane metric do you use to declare Ayotte not a true conservative? Ayotte occasionally sides with traitor and RINO in chief McCain, more rarely recognizes she's in a state trending blue and makes some token bipartisan vote carefully calculated not to have any real effect.
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Nov 3, 2015 03:14
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Earlier in the year, when I assumed Pat Toomey would be facing off against Joe Sestak next year, I figured Toomey would be able to win with a slightly bigger margin than 2010, which was something like a 2% difference. Then Katie McGinty entered the race and every Democract in PA from Philadelphia to Allegheny county lined up behind her, and in addition to that, Toomey voted for the Planned Parenthood defunding which hurts him. Now, the results of last nights statewide judicial elections ended in a republican spanking. This was an off-year where voter turnout was based on the non-contest for Philly mayor, local and county races. http://www.electionreturns.state.pa.us/ENR_NEW/ I think that Toomey is done next year, as PA seems to be trending more and more blue. We were the only state in 2014 to flip a governor from R to D, partially because Tom Corbett was universally reviled, but also due to voter trends. And if dems ever get control of the redistricting and undo the lines that the GOP has drawn over the past 30, you will see our congressional seats and state senate control flip in the very next election.
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Nov 4, 2015 14:40
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The Nastier Nate posted:Earlier in the year, when I assumed Pat Toomey would be facing off against Joe Sestak next year, I figured Toomey would be able to win with a slightly bigger margin than 2010, which was something like a 2% difference. If McGinty gets even decent coattails from Hillary then probably, yeah.
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Nov 4, 2015 18:11
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The Nastier Nate posted:Earlier in the year, when I assumed Pat Toomey would be facing off against Joe Sestak next year, I figured Toomey would be able to win with a slightly bigger margin than 2010, which was something like a 2% difference. what's with the results for superior court county-wise? i'm surprised to see delaware county going r, where a lot of those counties in southwest pa (greene, fayette, washington) that swung hard to mccain and romney went d
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Nov 4, 2015 21:33
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The Nastier Nate posted:Earlier in the year, when I assumed Pat Toomey would be facing off against Joe Sestak next year, I figured Toomey would be able to win with a slightly bigger margin than 2010, which was something like a 2% difference. Sort of odd that in the 2012 election the margin of victory for Obama in PA was only 5.39%. Lower than IA, WI, NH, NV and match almost exactly CO, all of which are swing states.
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Nov 5, 2015 00:47
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Mitt Romney posted:Sort of odd that in the 2012 election the margin of victory for Obama in PA was only 5.39%. Lower than IA, WI, NH, NV and match almost exactly CO, all of which are swing states. It's an artifcat of the population balance, it's always enough Democrat to go D since 1992. And even though it went R in 1980/84/88, it was always by significantly less than the average state, and they were all landslide election years to begin with. This of course baits Republicans into thinking they only need to tilt it a few percent to win this cycle (which also prevents them from giving in and going for split EVs from it).
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Nov 5, 2015 00:53
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Mitt Romney posted:Sort of odd that in the 2012 election the margin of victory for Obama in PA was only 5.39%. Lower than IA, WI, NH, NV and match almost exactly CO, all of which are swing states. Your namesake spent a lot of time in the midwest at the end of that cycle, trying desperately to somehow break through there while hoping that he could hold on in the other states without actually being present. It was a better strategy than just sitting back and losing I suppose but it was a real longshot and like most longshots it was a total failure.
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Nov 5, 2015 01:52
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This article from Politico is talking up Missouri chances for a Democratic senate pick up http://www.politico.com/story/2015/11/landscape-senate-democrats-2016-mccain-boozman-blunt-215606 quote:For months, Missouri barely registered in the 2016 battle for Senate control: It’s a conservative state with a solid Republican incumbent in Sen. Roy Blunt. But an unexpectedly strong Democratic recruit, Jason Kander, has put the state in play — prompting a Karl Rove-backed group to spend $800,000 to keep the seat in GOP hands.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:14
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Derek Smith - You just keep trying to convince yourself that the Democrats have a chance at taking the Senate, you never know, they just might, but the Senate will revert right back to the Republicans in 2018. Also there is a near zero chance that the Democrats will take the House back at least in the foreseeable future as all indications point to the fact that people are moving from blue states to red, a significant fact in the House reapportionment done after each Census. Each state that lost seats from the 2010 reapportionment was a Democrat controlled state, each one that gained as a Republican controlled state. Besides, the Democrats have lost seats that they have few hopes of regaining and have no up and coming leaders. "As historians begin to assess Barack Obama’s record as president, there’s at least one legacy he’ll leave that will indeed be historic—but not in the way he would have hoped. Even as Democrats look favorably ahead to the presidential landscape of 2016, the strength in the Electoral College belies huge losses across much of the country. In fact, no president in modern times has presided over so disastrous a stretch for his party, at almost every level of politics."
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Nov 9, 2015 06:16
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2016 is again, going to be really good. 2015 is already one for the ages.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:17
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Nonsense posted:Derek Smith - You just keep trying to convince yourself that the Democrats have a chance at taking the Senate, you never know, they just might, but the Senate will revert right back to the Republicans in 2018. Also there is a near zero chance that the Democrats will take the House back at least in the foreseeable future as all indications point to the fact that people are moving from blue states to red, a significant fact in the House reapportionment done after each Census. Each state that lost seats from the 2010 reapportionment was a Democrat controlled state, each one that gained as a Republican controlled state. That's been debunked because you can't punish Obama for his 2008 coattails. Start with 2006 results to now.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:21
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Mitt Romney posted:That's been debunked because you can't punish Obama for his 2008 coattails. Start with 2006 results to now. Conservatives have already reinvented history, Obama wasn't properly vetted at all before becoming President!! thanks Dr. Carson!
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Nov 9, 2015 06:24
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What the hell are you people talking about. No Mitt Romney, Jason Kinder isn't going to win Missouri, not unless he gets dragged over the line by a wave election where Democrats have already got control assured by other races. And no, Nonsense, that reapportionment stuff is bull too because despite the move from blue to red the biggest gerrymanders in the country are in rust belt states where a Democratic win could undo them. Not to mention those Democrats moving south are gradually increasing the Democraticness of those states, while the rust belt slowly turns redder.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:44
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Cliff Racer posted:What the hell are you people talking about. No Mitt Romney, Jason Kinder isn't going to win Missouri, not unless he gets dragged over the line by a wave election where Democrats have already got control assured by other races. Posting an article from Politico means that I think Kander will win the seat? And the article itself says they are hoping to ride a wave election. I think you're too sensitive if that's what sets you off.
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Nov 9, 2015 06:55
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Thats a bullshit article that spends multiple paragraphs discussing how Democrats have an honest to god shot at knocking off the Republican incumbent in Arkansas. Its toilet paper writing, you can set it next to all of the political e-mails from grandma if basis in reality is your criteria.
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Nov 9, 2015 08:28
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