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Do Not Resuscitate posted:No. the worst part about it are the people pointing to this particular episode and claiming that it's some sort of conspiracy wherein the financial director purposefully boarded a train and shouted into a phone in order to be overheard by two passengers who would then independently corroborate the story -- all to get another Biden story leaked to the National Review. Or were the passengers plants as well? Was anyone on the train not part of this canard?! No, I think he probably honestly had a conversation wherein he felt Biden was in. The ridiculousness of the situation was that he's some guy who is part of the Draft Biden group yelling good things about Biden running and people took it on face value. He is predisposed to be looking for anything that says Yes Biden, something more than his yelling on a train is needed for a story.
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Oct 7, 2015 00:44
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Necc0 posted:I didn't get the email. Post it  It went out to like 500 people, many of whom immediately replied all and turned it into a ridiculous group chat. The followup from PI was basically "whoops please forget all that personal info you may now have tia": Dear Trader, We apologize for an email that was just accidentally sent out that included addresses other than yours. This mistake will not be repeated. We request that you delete it and look for a proper replacement that will be sent to you. Again we sincerely apologize. The PredictIt Team
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Oct 7, 2015 01:02
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https://www.predictit.org/Contract/449/Will-Michael-Bloomberg-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election#data1 :w-hat:
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Oct 7, 2015 01:30
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Necc0 posted:https://www.predictit.org/Contract/449/Will-Michael-Bloomberg-win-the-2016-US-presidential-election#data1 I'll buy NOs on that for 90c yes please.
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Oct 7, 2015 01:51
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So are there going to be appetizers or what
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Oct 7, 2015 02:01
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 7, 2015 03:14
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:How much would it cost a campaign to buy enough shares to make it look like you've got momentum going and to get people to take a look at you? Ridiculously little
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Oct 7, 2015 03:20
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:How much would it cost a campaign to buy enough shares to make it look like you've got momentum going and to get people to take a look at you? A single person could push BUSH.USPREZ16 up 10% to .30 for $591.33
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Oct 7, 2015 03:24
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The guy who bought Bloomberg from 1c (tied for last) to 10c (7th, better than Fiorina) spent $100.
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Oct 7, 2015 04:07
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 7, 2015 04:23
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Do Not Resuscitate posted:Geez, that isn't much at all. Are total shares in the each market listed somewhere or are you doing some statistical jiu jitsu to figure this out? Yeah the total is listed under "data" for each market, and the more popular ones tend to have pretty huge floats. The Biden Runs market has 100,000 shares outstanding, for example.
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Oct 7, 2015 05:03
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So y'all goons keep a scoreboard of how you're doing?
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Oct 7, 2015 06:04
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I think I'm the only one itt to actually screenshot picks and investment amounts. People rightfully hold their cards to their chest. I'm in this for $20 total plus $40 of a friend's money so I'm not actually concerned with min-maxing and ROI, it's the camaraderie and speculation that makes me want to post tbh this is interesting poo poo and the stuff we talk about is worth much more to me personally than the actual money invested
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Oct 7, 2015 06:13
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I'm there with ya. I put twenty dollars into it and I'm having fun playing around. That said, I'm up by about two bucks so now i feel like competent investor man.
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Oct 7, 2015 06:16
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Btw, Bloomberg as Pres. Are down to 89 cent NOs. It's a sure fire way to make 11 cents.
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Oct 7, 2015 17:02
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Yeah if you can wait two years. I think people are starting to figure out the time opportunity of this stuff, so markets are moving more slowly.
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Oct 7, 2015 17:17
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I'm expecting him to drop out quick, so the payoff won't be that long.
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Oct 7, 2015 18:25
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I just remembered all my arbitrage shares with sell orders at $.99 and removed them all. Don't want those selling before they credit my account.
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Oct 7, 2015 18:27
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:I'm expecting him to drop out quick, so the payoff won't be that long. What are you talking about? You mean the price to drop out quick or the non-candidate to drop out quick?
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Oct 7, 2015 18:30
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Yeah I don't think they can close that market until literally 2016. I mean hell they have Paul Ryan and Jerry Brown as still viable markets. And Scott Walker. And Sarah Palin.
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Oct 7, 2015 18:33
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What are you talking about? You mean the price to drop out quick or the non-candidate to drop out quick? I was making the (seemingly incorrect) assumption that he would drop out of the race in an official capacity and they would close the contact, but yea, now I'm seeing Scott Walker on there and I'm selling this poo poo asap. Luckily, I made a cent on the shares.
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Oct 7, 2015 18:58
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When did Michael Bloomberg announce he was running??
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Oct 7, 2015 19:03
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A hedge fund billionaire said it yesterday. But like... Does that mean he will?
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Oct 7, 2015 19:39
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Not as a Republican, and probably never. edit ah, I thought he was up in the primary market, not the general market.
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Oct 7, 2015 19:47
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How often does the Nobel Peace prize go to just one person?
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Oct 7, 2015 20:49
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Stereotype posted:The guy who bought Bloomberg from 1c (tied for last) to 10c (7th, better than Fiorina) spent $100. Seeing this made me want to do some math. As it stands now, someone could bid Bloomberg up to 40c and into first place overall by spending $176. So if someone with money to burn (or a campaign) really wanted to point to PredictIt to show a candidate was legitimate, it would be fairly cheap to do so.
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Oct 7, 2015 20:51
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Gyges posted:How often does the Nobel Peace prize go to just one person? Last time was 2010, but that was the third consecutive year it was awarded to a single person.
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Oct 7, 2015 20:54
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If you look at the overall history, giving the Prize to just one person (and sometimes whatever organization they're running to boot) is the norm unless it's awarded to a set of negotiators or to joint leaders of a particular movement. The 2011 and 2014 awards were exceptions (although they were clearly thematically linked). Moral of the story: None of the people or orgs listed by PredictIt have any kind of connection that would be immediately obvious (which is what the Prize-givers really go in for), don't even think of buying YES shares in "Multiple of these" EDIT: unless you plan on selling them before Friday, of course. EDIT: And when it comes to NO shares in "Multiple of these" as well, note that the rules state that one of the candidates they offer still has to win. Combed Thunderclap has issued a correction as of 21:06 on Oct 7, 2015 |
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Oct 7, 2015 21:01
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I dropped $20 into this game and so far I have $36 so I'm pretty happy with that! I plan on building it up until I lose it all of course.
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Oct 7, 2015 21:53
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JohnnyPalace posted:Seeing this made me want to do some math. As it stands now, someone could bid Bloomberg up to 40c and into first place overall by spending $176. So if someone with money to burn (or a campaign) really wanted to point to PredictIt to show a candidate was legitimate, it would be fairly cheap to do so. The price would immediately drop like a rock after that initially buy, though.
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Oct 7, 2015 22:00
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Vox Nihili posted:The price would immediately drop like a rock after that initial buy, though. I never said it was a good idea
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Oct 7, 2015 23:22
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With how relatively easy it is to day trade in this game, who are the suckers losing money and still playing? (It's me, I'm the future sucker)
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Oct 8, 2015 00:29
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:With how relatively easy it is to day trade in this game, who are the suckers losing money and still playing? I'm down 5% on a $2k initial buy but I've been doing a lot of things like "If the price of ('No' on Jeb for GOP nom) is correct at 70c then the price of ('No' on Jeb for Prez) should be at a minimum 85c" and buying a fortune at 80c without really looking at any of the fundamentals. There's probably a lot of guys like me who are just doing this with disposable income or only buying things that they care about (like my 50 shares of Bernie for Prez).
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Oct 8, 2015 00:36
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Yeah, frankly, "people buying things they care about" is how you lose money. It takes dispassion. Since we're all emotional beings it's impossible to rid this of ourselves completely, but I like my method: I'll buy shares in events or people where I'd be disappointed if the outcome goes my way. That way, either I make money or a good thing happens, like my Bernie NO shares for Iowa. vvv that too, gently caress poll markets i say swears online has issued a correction as of 03:08 on Oct 8, 2015 |
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Oct 8, 2015 02:20
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Anorexic Sea Turtle posted:With how relatively easy it is to day trade in this game, who are the suckers losing money and still playing? I lost some. Learn from my mistakes and avoid the stupid poll markets.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:02
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Vox Nihili posted:I lost some. Learn from my mistakes and avoid the stupid poll markets. Yeah, this. The best was last week, where the week's new polls dropped it below the cutoff value... but because the aggregator site didn't update their moving average for the day until after the market had closed, it resolved to $0.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:18
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Fuschia tude posted:Yeah, this. The best was last week, where the week's new polls dropped it below the cutoff value... but because the aggregator site didn't update their moving average for the day until after the market had closed, it resolved to $0. Yeah I enjoyed losing that money so much I haven't really played on the site since. It doesn't help that the only things that resolve before a year goes by are generally the poll markets :/
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Oct 8, 2015 03:33
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The only way to play the polls is to be out 100% by the time you get to work the day they close.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:46
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A Time To Chill posted:Yeah I enjoyed losing that money so much I haven't really played on the site since. I made $20 on the crazy volatility of the House Majority leader one which will resolve soon. The Nobel Peace prize one is also a total gamble because who knows who those crazy Swedes will pick.
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Oct 8, 2015 03:49
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| # ? May 14, 2024 12:38 |
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AARP LARPer has issued a correction as of 01:47 on Jan 23, 2016 |
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Oct 8, 2015 04:18
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